In our latest working paper, researchers studied theoretically and empirically how banks’ experience with borrowing firms’ capital reallocation affects their incentive to monitor borrowers ex ante. https://clefed.org/4ailovg

Happy New Year from all of us at the Cleveland Fed!

What economic indicators will be crucial in 2026? Our next #FedTalk on Jan. 15 will feature our director of research discussing the US economic forecast for the new year. Register today and submit your questions to our speaker: https://clefed.org/44z5Srh

“One of my favorite parts of this job has been getting out in the community and really engaging with people in the region” our president and CEO Beth Hammack shared last year. See why these interactions are important as she’s formulating her monetary policy views: bit.ly/3LbUuLn

As of December 29, 2025, the median federal funds rate across seven policy rules and three economic forecasts falls from 4.29 percent in 2025:Q4 to 3.68 percent in 2027:Q4. https://clefed.org/45qM0GX

Join us 1/15 from 3–4 pm ET for the first #FedTalk of 2026. Our director of research, Ed Knotek, will discuss the #EconomicOutlook. We will cover topics such as #GDP, the #LaborMarket, and #inflation to provide a snapshot of the economy. Register: https://clefed.org/44z5Srh

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! One was about Policy Summit 2025. The biannual event focuses on issues affecting low- and moderate-income communities. You can watch the conversations from last year’s event here: clefed.org/PS2025

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! This summer we got a peek into the day in the life of a Cleveland Fed summer intern. For more information on our interns, visit: https://www.clevelandfed.org/careers/internships

In a recent working paper, researchers studied theoretically and empirically how banks’ experience with borrowing firms’ capital reallocation affects their incentive to monitor borrowers ex ante. https://clefed.org/4ailovg

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! In the spring of this year, our president Beth Hammack spoke at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University: See the speech: https://clefed.org/42PYQOh

Our Education and Learning Center will be closed until Monday, January 5. Plan your visit in the new year: https://www.clevelandfed.org/about-us/visit-us

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! Throwing it back to this Day in the Life of a Bank Examiner. For more information about our supervision work, visit: https://www.clevelandfed.org/scs

The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.34%. clefed.org/IE

Median #CPI rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. See our latest median #CPI and trimmed mean #CPI updates: clefed.org/CPI

Our latest report is part of a four-part series examining the international #trade relationships of the US states that are either partially or entirely contained within the Fourth District of the #FederalReserve System. See the latest data on #Kentucky: https://clefed.org/3XW7LdL

Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.99% in November. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV

College graduates traditionally enjoy lower unemployment and faster job placement than those with high school diplomas, but these advantages may be waning. Recent research indicates diminishing prospects for young college degree holders. See our report: https://clefed.org/48jWMj3

New District Data Brief: Kentucky’s International Trade Relationships. See the report: https://clefed.org/3XW7LdL

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! Back in April, we shared this quick, informational video on #stagflation. For more Center for Inflation Research work, visit: https://clefed.org/inflation

We show using survey data that smaller firms pass on cost increases to customers more than large firms. We build a model to analyze how such firm heterogeneity affects inflation and find that it makes inflation more responsive to shocks. See the paper: https://clefed.org/48iSsBS

We are sharing some of our most “liked” social posts of 2025! Economic Scholars Program is an economic conference that allows college students to share their work, participate in a research conference, and more. For more information, visit: https://clefed.org/esp

The recordings and presentations from this year’s Financial Stability conference, Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change, are now available. Visit the event page: https://clefed.org/42kurqM

On November 21, 2025, Vice Chair Jefferson delivered a speech on financial stability @clevelandfed.bsky.social: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Our Education and Learning Center is closed today. We will reopen tomorrow for our normal hours, 9:00 am-2:00 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Our latest District Data Brief is part of a four-report series examining the international #trade relationships of the US states that are either partially or entirely contained within the Fourth District of the #FederalReserve System. View: https://clefed.org/3MePoy1

Our latest District Data Brief is part of a four-report series examining the international #trade relationships of the US states that are either partially or entirely contained within the Fourth District of the #FederalReserve System. View: https://clefed.org/3MePoy1

ICYMI: The video, transcript, and audio from our most recent Fed Talk, titled “Dive into the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS),” is now available. Watch, read, or listen to the full discussion: https://clefed.org/47JjNwH

The Cleveland Fed Digest makes sure you’ve got the latest research and analyses by the Federal Reserve Bank that serves you and the region. Subscribe today! https://clefed.org/CFD

Lisa Gerdeman-Kern, senior manager of product strategy and insights in our Treasury Services Department, shows a glimpse into a day in her life. Learn more about her work, her inspiration, her life outside of work, & more: https://clefed.org/4nXZRLp

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week. We will reopen on December 8, during our normal hours: Monday-Wednesday, 9 am-2 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

According to the September 2025 #CommunityIssuesSurvey, #job availability for low- and moderate-income workers has decreased in the past six months. See the chart: https://clefed.org/43bM9gm

New District Data Brief: SORCE Insights: Ohio’s International Trade Relationships. See the report: https://clefed.org/3MePoy1

Our latest edition of the Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE), administered from 10/30-11/6/2025, included a set of special questions focused on employment among Fourth District firms. This report discusses results from these questions https://clefed.org/3M0rOoG

Fourth District reports suggested that business activity increased slightly in recent weeks, and contacts expected flat activity in the months ahead. #BeigeBook clefed.org/3ih7pZx

What happens when both #inflation and #unemployment rates are rising? This coincidence is called #stagflation. Economists from our #CenterForInflationResearch explore stagflation in our latest infographic: https://clefed.org/4pknizH

New District Data Brief: SORCE Insights: Employment Conditions and Outlook for Fourth District Firms. See the report: https://clefed.org/3M0rOoG

College graduates traditionally enjoy lower unemployment and faster job placement than those with high school diplomas, but these advantages may be waning. Recent research indicates diminishing prospects for young college degree holders. See our report: https://clefed.org/48jWMj3

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week and next week. We will reopen on December 8, during our normal hours: Monday-Wednesday, 9 am-2 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

According to the September 2025 #CommunityIssuesSurvey, #job availability for low- and moderate-income workers has decreased in the past six months. See the chart: https://clefed.org/43bM9gm

President Hammack: as the economy and financial system evolve, so do the potential shocks we may face. Read her remarks at the Cleveland Fed conference, “Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change.” https://clefed.org/4rblIBY

The financial system appears sound but you can never let your guard down when it comes to promoting financial stability, says President Hammack at the Cleveland Fed’s Financial Stability Conference https://clefed.org/4rblIBY

In remarks at our Financial Stability Conference, President Hammack shared 3 potential risks on her personal financial stability watchlist: growth in 1. private credit and 2. stable coins, and 3. the challenge of high inflation and a softening labor market https://clefed.org/4rblIBY

In our latest working paper, researchers created a new economic model that better reflects the reality of wage-setting power between employers and workers. See their findings: https://clefed.org/3X5bm92

Happy Women’s Entrepreneurship Day! According to the most recent Fed data on small businesses, women-owned firms outpaced men-owned ones in revenue growth, but lagged behind them in profitability. See more on women-owned firms here: https://clefed.org/4r73kdt

Inflation answers—illustrated! What is #stagflation? Our latest infographic answers this question. View it and the full series: https://clefed.org/4pknizH

Lisa Gerdeman-Kern, senior manager of product strategy and insights in our Treasury Services Department, shows a glimpse into a day in her life. Learn more about her work, her inspiration, her life outside of work, & more: https://clefed.org/4nXZRLp

In our latest report, we attribute the post-pandemic volatility of recession probability forecasts (see Figure 2 below) to the negative correlation between Beige Book sentiment and economic uncertainty. Read more: https://clefed.org/47O7M7U

The Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations total business conditions diffusion index increased by 6 points to 8, while the total expected business conditions diffusion index fell by 22 points to 4. Results were calculated from the 10.30–11.6 survey clefed.org/SORCE

Our Education and Learning Center is closed today. We will be open again tomorrow during our normal hours, 9 am –2 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

What do CEOs think inflation will be? The Survey of Firms’ #Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) shows they expect CPI inflation will be 3.3% over the next year. See the update: clefed.org/SoFIE