Architecture "Billings remain soft to start 2026" Pending Home Sales Decreased 0.4% Year-over-year in January calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architectu...

"In the week ending February 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 227,000 to 229,000."

Goldman: "We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger single-family housing starts and inventory accumulation than our previous assumptions."

Housing Starts Increased to 1.404 million Annual Rate in December calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...

MBA Mortgage Applications: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago."

A major avalanche in the "high risk" Avalanche Warning zone (per Sierra Avalanche Center) has occurred in the vicinity of Castle Peak, near Truckee. It unfortunately sounds like over a dozen people (skiers) were in the path, and some are still missing.

"Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 36 in February." www.nahb.org/news-and-eco...

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...

These developers need to get on the phone with J.D. Vance. GIFT:

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...

Economic Weekly February 13, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

Goldman: "We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.40% in January (vs. our expectation of 0.30% prior to today's CPI report) ..."

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis ... core CPI rose 0.3 percent in January. The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending January ... The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the last 12 months.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mba-mortga...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January Median House Prices Increased 0.9% Year-over-Year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...

"In the week ending February 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000."

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today." Just 229,000 jobs added in 2025 with revisions.

BofA: “We lowered our 4Q GDP tracking estimate four-tenths to 2.0% q/q saar following the softer-than-expected retail sales report.”

Goldman on Q4 GDP: "Core retail sales declined 0.1% in December, below expectations, and the level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.4% in November. We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)."

Q4 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-...

Consensus was +0.5% weak Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $735.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month... www.census.gov/retail/sales...

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade" Several Southern markets now have 10%+ mortgaged homes underwater calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/february-i...

Altos: Inventory down 1.2% week-over-week (January and February are always low inventory months)

This mountain snow in the U.S. West is desperately needed--snowpack has reached record low levels for time of year in many locations & will fall even further behind until early next wk, when there will likely be *some* recovery. TBD just how much; the existing deficits are huge.

AAR: "U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.5% in January, their fifth straight year‑over‑year decrease as weaker port activity, softer goods demand, and ample trucking capacity continued to weigh on intermodal volumes."

Economic Weekly February 6, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w... The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 210.5, reflecting a 2.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to January 2025. www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub...

I'm surprised the consensus for existing home sales in January is for a solid year-over-year gain (around +4%). With the NAR reporting much earlier each month this year, it is hard to gather enough local data to know for sure - but I think sales were down YoY.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a... Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.

Job Openings down 13% YoY www.bls.gov/news.release...

"In the week ending January 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."

Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd... This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.

Schedule update: Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025 Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026

January Vehicle Sales down 6.7% MoM (SA). Weakest since supply chain issues in 2022 (likely impacted by weather).

Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...

Goldman: "We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for January nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +45k, below consensus of +71k."

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."

John Burns: Multifamily at an inflection point: 2026 consequences and opportunities “Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”

Cotality: www.cotality.com/insights/art...

Bitcoin still ~$75,000 above eventual price.

HVS: Rental Vacancy Rates increases to 7.2% in Q4 www.census.gov/housing/hvs/...

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

Cleveland Fed: "there has been a notable deterioration in consumers’ inflation expectations’ anchoring in 2025 comparable to that in the late 1970s." www.clevelandfed.org/publications...

Just got confirmation from BLS: "The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding." #EconSky

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...

This is one way I’ve been thinking about the market outlook this year (some narrative tailwinds early that shift to headwinds around spring), and Claude did a pretty decent job of turning it into a visual: