California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/california...

A Few Comments on a Possible Government Shutdown www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/a-fe...

We're only 9 days out from a potential government shutdown, and OMB *still* doesn't have its agency contingency plans up (this is the central hub for how every agency plans to operate under a shutdown).

Housing September 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hous...

Kakistocracy: 8 months down, 40 to go.

The Lennar call made clear today that despite what equity investors might be pricing, the companies actually doing residential construction are cutting back.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-a...

Realtor com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/real...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.8% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hote...

Another weak month for existing home sales in August.

Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 231,000 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/week...

LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in August www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/la-p... This is the 9th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

25bp cut www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...

Powell at 2:30 PM ET www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ24...

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hous...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/mba-...

NAHB: "Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High", Negative territory for 17 consecutive months www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/nahb...

Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in August www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/indu...

Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in August www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/reta...

"A Dirty Little Secret" www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/a-di... '[I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken.'

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...

Housing September 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.6% Week-over-week www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hous...

FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/fomc...

www.calculatedriskblog.com/p/weekly-sch... The key reports this week are August Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hote... Tough year for hotels …

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...

Q3 GDP Tracking www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/q3-g...

Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/earl... my guess is COLA will probably be around 2.8% this year, up from 2.5% in 2025. ... the contribution base next year will increase to around $185,000 in 2026

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q2 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $7.1 Trillion in Q2 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/feds...

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in August www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/clev...

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/yoy-...

BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3% www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/bls-...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 263,000; Highest Since 2021 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/week...

All political violence, against anyone, is sickening poison that will ultimately harm all Americans. A Constitution is list of rules for resolving disagreements without violence. Let us take this moment to redouble our commitment to our Constitution, knowing where the other road leads.

Gabby Giffords Donald Trump Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman Charlie Kirk And other politicians and political figures ... in recent years. Shot. Only in America. Oh, and another school shooting today.

Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.4% YoY in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/cota... “July’s decline in home prices is atypical — the last two periods where we saw monthly declines in July was in 2022 and during 2006-2008 period"

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/mba-...

CPI Preview www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/cpi-...

Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/empl...

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...

BLS: The preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The format is changing from a webpage announcement to a news release. Once published, the new location of the release will be www.bls.gov/news.release....

September ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/september-...

Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/rece...

Housing September 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/hous...

www.calculatedriskblog.com/p/weekly-sch... The key economic report this week is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision on Tuesday.