Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

JOLTS: "The number and rate of job openings increased to 7.6 million (+731,000) and 4.6 percent... in April. Job openings increased over the year by 520,000. ... The number ... of hires decreased to 5.1 million (-419,000) ... in April." www.bls.gov/news.release... More openings, less hiring

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in April Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Decreased in April calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...

Construction Spending www.census.gov/construction... Construction spending during April 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,172.4 billion, 0.4 percent (±0.7 percent)* above the revised March estimate of $2,164.5 billion. This was above consensus

Manufacturing PMI® at 54% May 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report www.ismworld.org/supply-manag... "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 54 percent in May, 1.3 percentage points higher than in April and its highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent)." This was above consensus

An Interview with Jim the Realtor Announcing Retirement in 2027! calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/an-intervi...

Great speech by Fed Governor Powell today: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s... "The United States has long been the leader of the world's freedom-seeking people—the indispensable nation. Other countries know us as a nation built on integrity, and that integrity must be maintained."

Jim the Realtor interviewed me about housing (I've know Jim for years - he is in North County San Diego). www.bubbleinfo.com/2026/05/31/p...

The U.S. SPR is declining about 9 million barrels per week. It will be close to the Russian invasion of Ukraine low next week. And the U.S. is in better shape than most countries. www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/his...

30 Cities with largest price declines

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 1.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 17% calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...

New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...

Inflation: "From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago."

"Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April ... and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent)." www.bea.gov/news/2026/pe... Income well below consensus.

GDP revised down. Consensus was 2.1% Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. www.bea.gov/news/2026/gd...

"In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000."

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.7% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.3% below 2022 peak calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago."

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March FHFA House Prices Up 0.1% in March; Up 1.7% Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...

Today I’m thinking of my distant relative, James Hoey (Jan 14, 1842 – Aug 13, 1864) who fought for the Union during the Civil War and gave the ultimate sacrifice at the age of 22.

Economic Weekly May 22, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

Goldman on UMich: “the report’s 1-year inflation expectations measure was revised up by 0.3pp to 4.8% and the 5-10-year measure was revised up by 0.5pp to 3.9%.”

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.465 million Annual Rate in April calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...

"In the week ending May 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000." Close to consensus.

Market participants now expect the next FOMC move to be a rate hike possibly by this coming December.

Somewhat lower rates today www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

FOMC minutes: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli... "A majority of participants highlighted, however, that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent." Rate hike if inflation stay above target.

Architecture Billings "Retreat" in April Multi-family billings slightly positive for 2nd consecutive month calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architectu...

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago."

What is the economic damage from widespread administration corruption? Asking for a friend ...

$5.00 gasoline average nationally by July 4th?

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads (And Some Bond Market Commentary) calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...

NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.4% Increase in April www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar... "Pending home sales in April increased by 1.4% month over month and rose 3.2% year over year" Slightly below expectations. This is for closed sales in May and June.

We need to start thinking about the "Ethics and Integrity Act of 2029" - No stock trading by government officials (mutual funds only - and only quarterly). - No government officials receiving "gifts" - no Self-aggrandizement etc, etc.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...

"Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased three points to 37 in May." www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... This was above expectations, but has been negative (below 50) for 31 of the last 33 months.

Economic Weekly May 15, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q1 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mba-mortga...

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...

Retail sales up 0.5% in April, up 4.9% YoY boosted by gasoline. ex-Gasoline up 3.7% YoY Gasoline sales up 21% YoY.

"In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000." Slightly higher than the consensus forecast

BofA after PPI: "core PCE likely rose by 3.3% y/y in April continuing its run of uncomfortably elevated prints for the Fed. Headline meanwhile, likely rose by 0.42% m/m and 3.8% y/y. Bottom line: inflation data continue to send a hawkish signal to the Fed."

Based on the surged in inflation, market participants now expect the next Fed move to be in 2027 - and to be a rate hike!

PPI Blowout: "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April ... The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April" Way above consensus!