UMich all-time low

Inflation was looking like a problem even before the war. On a three-month annualized basis, PCE (both headline and core) topped 4% in February. Year-over-year core PCE is up 3%. And now the war will push prices higher. #NumbersDay More from @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/b...

Initial UI claims rose to 219,000 from 203,000. A jump but still below same period last year. Continuing claims fell sharply to 1,794,000 from 1,832,000, below the same week in 2025 & 2024. Important to watch to see if it portends an uptick in hiring

New business applications declined in March. Notably, business applications with planned wages (that might be more predictive of employment) are down -18% YOY and are at their lowest level since May 2020 Source: Census Bureau, www.census.gov/econ/bfs/cur... 1/

Bank of America Institute data estimates +1.4% year-over-year growth in payroll employment (3-month trailing avg) in March, much stronger than ADP & BLS data, but consistent with the idea that the job market firmed/reaccelerated in Q1 2026. institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...

Dallas Fed research estimates current breakeven jobs growth is near 0 (-3,000 jobs per month from Aug–Dec 2025) as their estimate of net migration remains negative. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Employee sentiment rebounded in March, similar to the dip->rebound seen in the Feb & Mar jobs reports. In the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, 47.1% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in March, up from 44.8% in February. www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...

Got tired of looking up BLS series, whipped this up with Claude Code prestonmui.github.io/bls-series-l...

Strong rebound in Mar BLS #jobsreport after surprisingly weak Feb: -Payroll employment surged 178k, rebounding from -133k loss in Feb (revised down further from -92k) -Unemp down to 4.3% from 4.4% -Wage growth slows to 3.5% YoY from 3.8% 1/

Hiring is more and more dominated by AI. How do those results compare to human recruiters? www.chicagobooth.edu/review/does-... #econsky

Breakeven job growth (the pace needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate) near-zero. Could make negative job growth almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month. 2: Any growth in potential GDP must come from productivity growth. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Labor force growth could be near-zero starting this year, due to weak population growth and declining labor force participation. Such weak growth is unprecedented in the United States’ recent history. This has significant economic implications: (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Reminder ahead of tmrw's jobs report: Kaiser Permanente strike subtracted 31,000 (est.) from Feb's payroll estimates and those workers being added back to payrolls will artificially boost Mar job gains. No new strikes are expected to impact the Mar report: www.bls.gov/ces/publicat...

Jacqueline LaPointe summarizes David Cutler's new @brookings.edu paper which argues, with detail, that the US has bent the health care cost curve. www.techtarget.com/revcyclemana...

Initial claims fell to 202,000 last week from 211,000 the week prior and are solidly below levels from a year ago. Similarly, continuing claims (which rose to 1,841,000 from 1,816,000) are trending below the same point in 2025. Could point to a stronger March jobs report tomorrow

sign me up! 🌚

Was asked in an interview recently what the implications of higher productivity are for the Fed, and frankly I think there isn't a simple answer. I like Musalem's response here, which I think captures the evidence and risks at play.

Feb 2026 #JOLTS report shows a sharp slowdown, consistent w/ the weak Feb jobs report: -Hires rate tumbles to 3.1% vs 3.4% in Jan -Quits rate slows to 1.9% from 2.0% -Openings down to 6.88m from 7.24m (revised up from 6.95m) -Layoffs tick up slightly to 1.72m from 1.66m 1/

New Fed research finds no evidence AI reduces future job postings (defining "AI" as [1] self-reported usage of/plans to use AI in Census BTOS firm survey, linked to job postings data at the firm level, or [2] previous job postings that ask for ML/AI skills) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Bank of America data estimates 3% of their households spend on AI services. A little higher for higher-income households, but all relatively small shares across the income spectrum. Source: institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...

"[Convoys] don’t scale well because ships must be escorted out as well as back in. So, convoys may only be able to restore potentially 20% of normal oil flows, with overland pipelines adding another 15-20%...No on-off switch exists here—the conflict won’t stop one day and oil flow normally the next"

This was a cool one! Got to sit down with @HarvardBiz for a lengthy Q&A on the Iran War and the ongoing, historic energy supply crisis: how it works, how bad it could get, and how decision makers should think about the risk. Check it out: hbr.org/2026/03/the-...

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 205,000 last week from 213,000. They remain at a relatively normal level. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1,857,000 from 1,847,000, but are tracking slightly below the same point last year.

Arizona said it filed criminal charges against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling business in the state

*ARIZONA CHARGES KALSHI WITH OPERATING ILLEGAL GAMBLING BUSINESS

Some personal news: This is my last week at The Washington Post. I’ve loved so much of the last 9 years here, but my faith in the paper’s current leadership is broken beyond repair. Incredibly excited to get to work w/ the newsroom below (I start in June) Get in touch on Signal : 9178872891

put it on the blockchain

A 20% layoff would take Meta employee count down to ~63,000 (not accounting for any incremental hiring in the interim) www.reuters.com/business/wor...

Julia was very kind to share more detail on this/her thinking throughout the thread. Quantifying, this category is 0.86% of core PCE, so the shift from +11.9% -> +1.83% shaved 0.087% (1.05% at annual rates) off core PCE MoM. This kind of scrutiny is one reason that we can be confident...

#JOLTS Jan 2026 report: -Hires rate flat at 3.3% vs Dec -Quits rate flat at 2% -Openings rebound to 6.95m from 6.55m in Dec, 6.85 in Nov -Layoffs down a tick to 1.63m from 1.67m Ok report, holding steady, consistent w/ the stronger Jan jobs report. Q is what Feb will look like 1/

Ice, Moon and Tanker Christopher Pratt 2007

Jones Act mention!

Initial unemployment insurance claims were largely unchanged last week at 213,000 from 214,000 the week prior. Continuing claims fell to 1,850,000 from 1,871,000. Continuing claims are basically unchanged from a year ago.

New business applications fell in February 2026 vs. January. Compared to a year ago though, the pattern differs by application type: Total: +15% YoY High-propensity: +5% From corps: -6% With planned wages: -14% Census Bureau source: www.census.gov/econ/bfs/pdf... 1/2

Fantastic essay: "Why the ATM didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did." davidoks.blog/p/why-the-at... Key point: "it is paradigm replacement, not task automation, that actually displaces workers." In this sense, we're still in the early days of AI's effect on the economy.

Three asterisks to an otherwise decent CPI report: 1) This was before the economic fallout from the war in Iran 2) The very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after March. 3) Core PCE is running much firmer than CPI, and that wedge widened in Feb

Maxx Crosby did not pass his physical today, per sources. The Ravens get their first-round picks back.

🎙️ I was thrilled to rejoin @weisenthal.bsky.social & @tracyalloway.bsky.social on the Odd Lots podcast to discuss the historic and ongoing disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world's oil flows This is it. This is the big one open.spotify.com/episode/2rl8...

Many good suggestions in the replies here but I am leaning towards those who went with QUIET QUITTING

"If you are tracking the impact of AI on labor markets, CEO statements are the worst way to measure it." Amen, @marthagimbel.bsky.social! @hamiltonproject.org #AIPlusWork

Employee sentiment dropped again in February. In the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, 44.3% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers, down from 45.9% last February. Tech has seen the largest YoY drop of any industry (-7.1pp). www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...

BLS #jobsreport flip flops to large job loss in Feb after Jan surge: -Payroll employment shrank 92k, much worse than expected -Dec revised down from +48k to -17k, Jan from +130k to +126k -Unemp ticks back up to 4.4% from 4.3% in Jan 1/

Block to lay off almost half of its workforce (>4,000 workers). Dorsey says business is doing well, but AI is "enabling a new way of working" www.cnbc.com/2026/02/26/b...

Initial unemployment insurance claims ticked up to 212,000 from 208,000, though remain relatively low compared to recent weeks & previous years. Continuing claims down to 1,833,000 from 1,864,000, similarly roughly flat vs. year ago

Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral for rest of year. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... via @brookings.edu

there was a lotta chatter yesterday about the paid emergency snow shovelers recruited to clear out NYC as it was hit with the worst blizzard in a decade. but what's it actually like to crack the ice on behalf of the city? I spoke with an emergency shoveler to find out: slate.com/business/202...

@budgetlab.bsky.social out with an analysis of impacts of this morning's tariff ruling (assuming tariffs aren't replaced under a diff authority): Remaining tariffs are still large. Slight increase in unemp. (+0.3pp) thru 2026. No expected impact to 2026 GDP. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...

Why we had to wait so long for the fucking tariffs opinion. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...

*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN BY US SUPREME COURT