Breaking News: The New York City Council overwhelmingly approved a rezoning on Wednesday that could transform an industrial stretch of Queens into thousands of apartments — private development aimed at addressing the city’s affordable housing crisis. nyti.ms/4p71Cqv

My guess (emphasis guess) is that we might see CES and PPI numbers for October but rolled into the November release

Situation is more complicated for the unemployment rate but if the WH is saying it’s not possible that means BLS/Census told them it isn’t

All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.

The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2

...(so released after the Dec FOMC meeting). The survey week for the Nov HH survey will still be Nov 2-8 when the govt was shut down so we should still see a spike in the UR from furloughed workers (as @econberger.bsky.social has pointed out) 2/2

Oof *OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE

More color from JPMAM Kelly: Of the -35k Oct payrolls drop, there was likely a 120k decline in the federal workforce.

Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...

It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market. So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:

Bank of America Institute data from October points to ongoing job market slowing with estimated payroll growing slightly slower than ADP and unemployment payments growing faster than continuing claims. institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...

Employee sentiment tumbled in October, according to the latest Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 45.7% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in October, down from 47.8% in September. www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...

Data dogs step aside, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee's new metaphor on inflation risks: "The last time you looked out the window, there was a mountain lion sitting in your front yard. So before you let Fluffy out to go run around, let's at least get one more look."

New US jobs data? Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay

But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote

To put this in context, employee count is down vs 4 years ago, while Amazon sales are up 31% or nearly $41 billion.

Yet the new hesitancy about cutting in December seems more a response to a potential rebound in jobs rather than worries about inflation. Some on the committee think growth is improving, which could actually boost hiring. Powell: "They're noticing stronger economic activity."

Meta employee count up 3% QoQ, 8% YoY in Q3 2025 to 78,450 from 75,945 in Q2 investor.atmeta.com/investor-new...

First up @nicktimiraos.bsky.social Q: are you uncomfortable with market pricing of a move at the next meeting? A: We're not on a preset course and markets need to take that on board. We had strong views and strongly differing views today.

The US obesity rate has declined from its 2022 peak as the use of weight-loss drugs has more than doubled in two years, according to @gallup.com: news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...

"The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022."

The Fed lacks gold-standard data that inform its monetary policy decisions, due to the shutdown. They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data. But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off. A laugh-before-crying story from me:

Thrilled to work with @andrewvandam.bsky.social on this piece! wapo.st/46ZuESX

Everyone who cares about attacks on govt data should be following @hansilowang.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/hans...

Vanguard administrative data shows a sharp slowdown in employment growth starting in spring 2024 with employment growth for 21–25 year olds decelerating from +3.5% in April 2024 down to +2.1% as of September 2025 corporate.vanguard.com/content/corp...

Tariff concerns are still front and center in today's October Beige Book, though not as prominent as in the last few months post-Liberation Day. This illustrative quote from the Kansas City Fed highlights pricing concerns have moved from a "boil to a simmer".

awful nice of the Dallas Fed to believe even in the worst case, we'd survive ~10 years post-singularity in the human-AI war

Key stat from @amandamull.bsky.social article "The richest 10% of US households—those making roughly $250,000 or more—now account for almost half the country’s consumer purchases, according to Moody’s Analytics" www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Unemployment is surging for Black workers — and federal government layoffs will only make it worse. Important story from @lydiadepillis.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/b... #EconSky

New Substack post: the Nobel Prize goes to an economic historian and two economists of growth trying to answer the question, where do new technologies come from? someunpleasant.substack.com/p/growing-th...

The Trump admin has started firing federal workers 10 days into the shutdown, according OMB Director Russ Vought — who called the firings "substantial." At least nine agencies appear to be affected.

September CPI will be released in two weeks on Friday, Oct 24, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET to accommodate the SSA COLA adjustments despite the government shutdown. Jobs report won't be released though www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...

Bank of America Institute data shows divergence in spending trends with higher-income household spending accelerating to 2.6% year-over-year in September while lower-income household spending grows at just 0.6% year-over-year Source: institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...

The decision appears to be connected to the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which is based on consumer price data from the third quarter (which includes September). If the CPI report is delayed, that could lead in a delay in the COLA announcement.

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

No way the "More than 30" group is only 3%

Reading through the BLS's 2019 FAQ on govt shutdown and in the establishment survey, furloughed federal employees were still counted as employed because they were expected to receive back pay for the period. www.bls.gov/bls/shutdown...

Some good details on the mechanics of when pay arrives for government workers from @gregorykorte.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I think making it enticing for people to get emotionally invested in the Jets is NOT a social good source: @matt-levine.bsky.social, www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Bank of America Institute released internal data on the job market which showed further slowing in Sep. Their continuing UI claims estimate is up +10% YoY vs. +5% YoY in recent govt data. And jobs growth is at about +0.5% YoY vs. +1% in Aug BLS data. institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...

Maybe the weirdest touchdown I’ve ever seen

“Overall, the administration expects the federal workforce to end the year with hundreds of thousands fewer employees, attributed to a hiring freeze, layoffs and voluntary departures.” www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

We're not getting a jobs report today, so what does Glassdoor data say about the Sep job market? It's a mixed bag (which highlights how important it is even for alternative data to have BLS data set the context): [1] The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index improved in Sep rising to 47.7% from 45.6%

% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society 22% in 2022 47% in 2025 No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.

Big picture, we do not know the exact answer to 'how good/bad is the ADP data if BLS data disappears?' but the private data providers themselves are pretty clear in every conference/panel that the quality of their own data will erode if they cannot benchmark to BLS estimates.

Been a while since we've updated our stats on this, but it's similar to what we saw on Glassdoor Our 2024 intern, Luna Liu, also estimated how accurate ranges are & found many workers self-reporting pay outside the stated ranges (*this estimate is likely an upper bound on noncompliance) 1/2

September saw a modest rebound in the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index, with 47.7% of employees reporting a positive business outlook for their employers. Confidence is still down 0.5pp vs. a year ago, but sentiment has rebounded slightly from the record low in June. 1/

Goldman looks at how the economy is relying upon the rich continuing to spend money — and how the rich are relying upon stocks continue to rise.