#$SPCX would need to trade at more than 81x sales to achieve targeted $1.75T valuation. For reference, #$PLTR currently trades at 67x sales. Oh also, #$PLTR also grew revenue 85% y/y in Q1 (at a 53% net margin) vs SpaceX’s 15% growth y/y in Q1 (at very much a loss)

The Win Probability graph during the first half of the game looks like the YTD implied probability graph for the Fed Funds rate at year-end.

I, um, have some thoughts on the SpaceX S-1 yontodd.substack.com/p/close-your...

Anthropic achieved this by a $5 billion *quarterly* revenue increase (130% QoQ revenue growth!) For reverence, Nvidia is a $5 trillion company and they were only able to achieve a $5bn quarterly revenue increase in *OCTOBER 2025*, six months ago.

"Oppenheimer’s Ananth Muniyappa also noted that average LLM token costs are up 12% in a week and 65% since late February to $2.12 per million tokens, supporting the narrative around a shortage and raising the risk of demand curtailment if end-users begin to ration usage"

Feels like I’ve seen him before…

In case you want to bake this into your "Is the AI trade at the top" model

Newcastle scores, Tottenham relegation odds plummet

Been trying to do something new - putting a broader finance and econ context around some of the bigger, newsier stories This one on Mythos and how AI infrastructure limitations are going to turn the newest models into something more like a luxury good youtu.be/8meZZMoWtrE

The public health emergency is people *aren't* out drinking with friends, and are instead home alone, watching TikToks about injecting peptides

This is underwhelming

Other than a brief blip in August, market pricing nothing but a higher fed funds rate from here into 2031

The @ftweekend.com HTSI mag is typically aspirational - kind of like this weekend's feature that shows quite literally where I’m from

GS: Accordingly, we expect US data center power demand to more than triple from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW in 2027

Market pricing 7.5 bp of hikes by 12 months from now. Powell sticking around has zero to do with this - that is, it probably wouldn't be very different if Powell were still Chair moving forward.

Y’know in that series of Curb Your Enthusiasm where Larry David opens a spite store? This is the central banking equivalent of that to Stephen Miran.

Zervos, stop trying to make "ferbuseless" happen

the long-term crime trend in NYC is remains kind of unfathomable www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/...

this is single-handedly turning my day around

More than 70% of the increase in 2026 EPS estimates comes from just six companies, benefiting from a shortage of oil and semiconductors BCA Research @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

#$MSFT -3.5% "Simplify" indeed

if you missed it over the weekend, @bhgreeley.bsky.social's essay on the dollar is as good as everyone says. as.ft.com/r/00ba67d9-c...

The Red Sox are the new Chelsea, who are the new Tottenham, who are the new… sorry, have no comp there

This is great news for society.

TRUMP: WILL REMEMBER COMPANIES THAT DON'T SEEK TARIFF REFUNDS TRUMP: BRILLIANT IF AMAZON, APPLE DON'T SEEK TARIFF REFUNDS Glad we can all just openly admit its pay-for-play, good to have that cleared up

Nasdaq Composite RSI is bananas

Okay CTA. This is a good sign.

saddened to note that my inbox does not contain *any* sell-side notes modelling the economic impact of a nuclear strike on London. pull yer socks up, lads

DOGE turbocharged the deficit, achieving no savings. The IRS reductions from funding and layoffs have likely resulted in about $861 bn in decreased revenue. The layoffs from actions like DOGE alone have likely resulted in $597.8 bn in decreased revenue over the 2026-2035.

TFW you think you’re in on the con but it turns out you’re actually the bag holder.

It was normal in the 19th century for bank presidents to sign their own dollar notes. Also it's weird anyway that *anyone* in the Treasury signs the notes, which sit on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. But also let us consider that jfc I just can't anymore home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

You need best player in your sport on a team that contends. Ohtani might be Brady on the Patriots. I don’t know! But I’ll buy that the sport is hurting when ratings and attendance start tanking. Both are up. We’ve endured “here’s why baseball is about to die” stories every spring for 100 years.

Incredible scene: Travelers wait on hours-long security line at George Bush International Airport in Houston while Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA” blasts through the speakers. (video shared directly with me)

Given the type of poster in the comments section of Polymarket bets, I will be happy to avoid ever going here

Feb Core PPI 3m annualized pace (~7.8%) highest since May-22

A first-time candidate who came onto the scene as a young TikTok’er getting over 25% in a crowded primary against other elected officials seems like an objectively strong electoral performance, whatever your thoughts on the candidate might be. She did something right with voters:

January Core PCE annualized paces... Fresh out the frying pan into the fire

Apparently commodity traders are "imbeciles" because they were worried about what's actually now happening in the Strait of Hormuz

Good morning to all my F1 heads *CHINA'S BYD EXPLORES ENTRY INTO F1, OTHER AUTO RACING SERIES

Spain has been terrible. Also, so many Americans are moving to Madrid that a local park has been dubbed Plaza USA www.wsj.com/us-news/amer...

“.. This is simply attempted corporate murder,” Ball wrote. “I could not possibly recommend investing in American AI to any investor; I could not possibly recommend starting an AI company in the United States.” @politico.com #Anthropic www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

Reed and Ted just crippled a competitor and will be able to buy some assets cheap later on, #$NFLX

fwiw... February saw: - Fourth-straight month of value outperformance to growth - Third-straight month of global outperformance to US (and accelerating)

This opens up a pretty clear lane in the #$NFLX investment thesis - viewers and writing/production talent leave HBO for Netflix #$PSKY may have won the battle, but far from clear that means they'll be the longer-term winner...

It’s heartening to see a company demonstrate principles — and stick by them in the face of threats. www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...

Love this

He’s essentially suggesting the Fed self-censor its research to avoid topics the White House considers politically sensitive. Does that preserve the independence or undermine it? The White House hasn’t had a problem touting tariff research from other Fed economists when it approves of the findings.

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right. Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement. This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

OpenAI round set to close with $100bn raise at $850bn valuation. Not even sure what to say about this honestly.