We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study. New results, in 3 figures: 🧵 1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no significant differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/

Nice quote! One of the reasons for the Social Science Prediction Platform. A few of the cash transfer evaluations (including our own) collected ex ante forecasts there. @sdellavi.bsky.social

I don’t think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before. But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise. He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.

Okay, now that I've used it for some work on forecasting, I have to say this is a fantastic tool! We will be changing some things in our paper as a result. Highly recommended!

Giving a seminar today at the World Bank's Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund, pulling together insights from three papers on the evidence-to-policy pipeline! Excited to engage with this group.

Niche, but did you know there is a TTC shop? This is such a perfect fit for my interests (maps, public transit, puzzles) that I have to share. Probably other transit systems make them, too?

My last living musical hero is still my hero but unfortunately no longer living. RIP to the great, great Mr. Tom Lehrer.

A salute to this man, who brought so much entertainment and camaraderie to so many. 💔 Several generations appreciating his music. www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAE...

I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on. Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts. 1/

🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children" This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/

1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids’ outcomes? www.nber.org/papers/w34040

That sinking feeling when you accidentally send a tariff letter addressed to the leader of a ruling military junta that the United States refuses to recognize or (otherwise) engage with. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Interesting! They also have a great use of forecasts, comparing perceptions to reality.

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

If I lived in the US I'd be downloading a copy of the Benny Hill theme song on my phone just in case, just saying....

The US Administration is about to open a new front in its across-the-board assault on international students. For the last half century, student visas in the US have been valid until graduation. The White House will soon force those visas to expire in 2 to 4 years, max. Why that's so harmful—>

It's here! A workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs at @econuoft.bsky.social with the Forward Society Lab. Have some new results to share and looking forward to learning from others. Such a great community.

Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform! Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social

Very last chance to sign up for this workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs, held in Toronto on June 26!

Excited to be presenting at the Forecasting Research Institute tomorrow on forecasting social science results, based on experiences with the Social Science Prediction Platform. Looking forward to the discussion!

Good day to dust off this old classic:

The entire internet right now.

must be incredibly frustrating and disheartening to have federal funding that was promised to you for important work suddenly and arbitrarily ripped away

I wrote about the 23-year-old crypto bro with effectively no relevant work experience, who @alondra.bsky.social revealed is sitting in meetings, not paying attention, and then giving the thumbs up/thumbs down on whether they can get their NSF grants...

Excited to attend this workshop on #AI at UofT today.

A short summary of recent work with Aidan Coville and @sampada.bsky.social on the large amount of weight policymakers place on local evidence, now out at the JDE: evavivalt.com/2025/05/how-...

Just a reminder about this one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs in North America, happening the day before SOLE/EALE/AASLE. Register now if interested, else there may not be space! 1/

I've a blog post I expect to be disliked. In my feed, it's popular to be anti all restrictions. There is a lot I'm sympathetic to: build more houses, reform IRBs. But the devil is in the details and just because some items are inefficient doesn't make all constraints bad. 1/

Well done figuring out a way to measure this!

Three things made the US a rich and powerful nation: the rule of law, its science & innovation system, and openness to foreign talent. Remarkable how Trump has taken a sledgehammer to all three. No enemy of this country could do more.

They're terminating OPT. Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US. 6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Are you coming to Toronto for the SOLE/EALE/AASLE joint meeting? Then you might be interested in a one-day workshop on cash transfers and other social safety net programs held at @uoft.bsky.social the day before. 1/ #SOLE2025 #econsky @econuoft.bsky.social

Ugh. Such a sad story. thebsdetector.substack.com/p/ai-materia...

The grad student apparently registered a domain name associated with the alleged firm and the firm filed a complaint against them for doing so this January, i.e., after people started looking into the study. Hope this isn't as shady as it sounds. www.wipo.int/amc/en/domai...

AYFKM There is special circle of hell for those who fabricate data Immeasurable harm to all of us who break our backs to collect real data, to brilliant students who deserved that position, to other students who won’t get trust they deserve — just obscene

Lost $167k from the NIH banning renewals of foreign subawards. I'm glad to at least have had the signal of NIH and NSF grants before the cut. Really don't think these cuts are cost-effective to the US.

This was a really nicely-done survey - strongly encourage people to check it out! Congrats to the winners!

Quite the quote.

How likely are Americans to buy “Made in the USA” and pay more for it? Company offered a U.S.-made version of their flagship product at 85% more than the Chinese-made one. 25,650 customers could vote with their wallets. How many bought American? buff.ly/JMYl1qg

I know attention is (rightfully) focused on the first sentence, but that second sentence is also egregious given how much effort goes into an application....

This was a really fun discussion on the hurdles involved in getting a large field experiment off the ground. If you're not familiar with this podcast, it's a great one for those interested in the nuts and bolts of research ("why did you set it up that way?", etc.). open.spotify.com/episode/5K8l...

I'm blogging a bit more. This time: encouraging people to think through the political economy of advice. You sometimes hear some stories which are not great, where people made major career decisions based on advice that shouldn't have been given. 👇

Smart move.

Apparently the language thing is not a joke. 😬 Should have called them goods surpluses rather than trade deficits.

Why have the economists in the administration not resigned? Clearly they have no control under this admin. So why stay, only to be disempowered and forced into supporting ridiculous positions? Do they think it could be worse, or are they believers? That's a scary thought.

Wrote up some advice for undergraduates considering grad school. This is pretty basic advice, but I think some people could still benefit from it! This is more for people considering MAs than PhDs, but still relevant for the latter (with a higher bar). #EconSky evavivalt.com/2025/03/on-r...

Apply today if interested!

Just a reminder, we have prizes for great surveys on the Social Science Prediction Platform. Deadline: March 31. Details: socialscienceprediction.org/outstanding-...

🚨 I am looking to hire 1-2 pre-docs at the University of Toronto. Some things you could work on: forecasts of research results, guaranteed income, evidence-based policy, AI. For more info and to apply: evavivalt.com/2025/03/pre-... Deadline: March 31. #predoc #econ_ra @econuoft.bsky.social