koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
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Accidental behavioural economist koenfucius.substack.com
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Blogged: The Unlearnable Song We possess an exceedingly powerful information processing and learning capabilityâfine tuned to spot cues, recognize patterns and act accordingly in no time. But when there are no patterns to recognize in the cuesâwe are lost:
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1 day ago
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Many people have some idea of what Behavioural Economics is, but how well do they align with each other? @econ_4_everyone and Laibson offer more than a definitionâsix clear principles that describe the domain and enable its integration into economics:
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6 minutes ago
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Barbershop singers rely on learned patterns to recall their parts in close harmony performances. A part that doesnât fit common patterns spells trouble. A superb metaphor for how we make decisions and learn. Check out my post, The unlearnable song:
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about 4 hours ago
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âThe favourable demographic reality of the last century is not coming back. We live in an ageing world that poses challenges that we have never faced before.â Clear and comprehensive analysis of the fertility crisis by Coelli & GuzmĂĄn:
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via
@econ-observatory.bsky.social
about 5 hours ago
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Regels zijn bedoeld om ons te informeren over wat wel of niet mag en moet. Maar zo gebruiken we ze zelden. Een olympische controverse illustreert hoe we ze âredelijkâ misbruiken. Mijn @apache_be stukje, Een redelijke illusie van objectiviteit:
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about 7 hours ago
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Recent research on womenâs preferences in sex toys confirms many earlier studies that found neither length nor girth are of great importance. Yet men donât believe this, and penis size continues to rank high among their worries, writes Michael Castleman:
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about 9 hours ago
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A sceptical reporter tried a sound bath to see if it actually made him calmer. You may well believe what happened next:
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about 10 hours ago
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The old 5 1/4â floppy disks (surely no 8â ones!) at the back of your cupboard probably contain little of value. But others may wel hold unique historical data. Thankfully, an archivist is trying to preserve whatâs on these decaying floppies:
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about 19 hours ago
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Sleep duration is an important factor in preserving your mental health. But itâs not the only one. A regular sleep pattern is also key to keep depressing and anxiety at bay, research suggests:
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about 20 hours ago
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Overconfidence is not just a human tendency. LLMs are afflicted too. Not just because theyâre trained on human content (reflecting the human bias)âthe training itself tends to amplify overconfidence. And human users are too confident LLM is right:
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about 22 hours ago
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Anomalous Health Incidentsâcolloquially known as the Havanna Syndromeâhas been making the news again. Are we any closer to finding out exactly what it is/was? Sabine
@hossenfelder.bsky.social
looks at recent reporting and discovers an unexpected effect:
youtu.be/Rd1eeiHwvLQ
about 23 hours ago
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Research by Yelbuz & Thielmann suggests this selectivity is associated with â˘dark personality (Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy) â˘RW authoritarianism â˘social dominance
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1 day ago
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A weird case of pluralistic ignoranceâmost people say they feel rather happy or very happy, but everyone thinks most other people are miserable. Tim Harford suspects there is something going on:
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1 day ago
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Blogged: The Unlearnable Song We possess an exceedingly powerful information processing and learning capabilityâfine tuned to spot cues, recognize patterns and act accordingly in no time. But when there are no patterns to recognize in the cuesâwe are lost:
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1 day ago
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You may very well think that Philosophy is not a fact-based discipline. Bryan Frances will disabuse you of such thoughts, offering 200 philosophical facts in evidence:
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1 day ago
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The idea that evolutionary psychology is not falsifiable and lacks scientific rigour persists in academia and in public discourse. A new review debunks this zombie idea, writes Mane Yakoubianâits hypotheses can be rigorously tested and indeed overturned:
tinyurl.com/u3xb6uff
1 day ago
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Machine learning helps scientists identify millions of tiny, previously unseen earthquakes in data gathered from seismically active placesâ expanding the catalogs of quakes, refining maps of underground faults and ultimately improve quake forecasts:
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1 day ago
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The construction of a theatre or concert hall influences how the audience experiences the soundânotably reverberation and timbre. But thereâs another important factor that affects the publicâs perception of the sound: the colour of the venue:
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2 days ago
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The controversy around *that* helmet in the Winter Olympics shows we donât treat rules as the objective, impartial and authoritative reference that they are intended to be. Our loss? ICYMI, last call for my post, A reasonable illusion of objectivity:
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2 days ago
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Why is pessimism more seductive than optimism? @morganhousel points (inevitably) at evolutionâthose who treat threats as more urgent are more likely to surviveâbut that doesnât explain why we cling on to it:
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2 days ago
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The power of the group Research by Confer et al suggests kids aged 4-6 find evidence that aligns with ingroup beliefs more convincing (and contrary evidence less so); those not belonging to a group evaluated evidence accurately.
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HT
@jayvanbavel.bsky.social
2 days ago
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Is anyone willing to often even a semi-plausible economic argument in defense of mandatory national origin labels? Bryan Caplan observes an intriguing consequence of such labelling. (I share his bafflement about the practice):
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2 days ago
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Fines and incarceration are unimaginative punishments for minor crimes. Research suggests people would endorse more creative alternativesâeg walking 30 miles for failing to pay a taxi fareâbecause theyâre assumed to better deter repeat offences:
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2 days ago
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Research by
@trevorspelman.bsky.social
et al suggests people overestimate the social costs of speaking out against the party lineâespecially on partisan issuesâwrongly anticipating harsh rejection to signalling disloyalty:
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TL;DR:đ§ľ
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2 days ago
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The eyes have it New research suggests the mere presence of eyes on a robot influences our expectations of its mental capabilitiesânotably independent action and emotional experience, empathy and even consciousness:
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via
@psypost.bsky.social
2 days ago
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Catâs eyesâinspiration of the ubiquitous road safety devicesâare much like natural night vision goggles. The reflective layerâalso present in some other animalsâthat makes them light up helps them see in low light conditions now inspires cameras too:
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2 days ago
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People high in the potent combination of machiavellianism, narcissism and psychopathy (the Dark Triad) are best avoidedâbut theyâre not the most malevolent. Research focused on workplace deviance described five distinct dark profiles:
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3 days ago
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Research by Reitmann et al on social desirability finds â˘young Tunisiansâ support for working women is up to 22 ppt higher when asked using a direct question vs through a list â˘financial incentives ups the accuracy of guesses on perceived social norms:
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3 days ago
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Maximize your wellbeing through regular shortish breaks. Meta-analysis suggests the positive effects of a holiday can last for as long as 43 days (compared to before the break), with a faster decline for longer holidays:
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3 days ago
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âI didnât write thatâ âYes you didâ Research by
@simonlermen.bsky.social
et al shows LLMs can deanonymize pseudonymous users of online platforms using unstructured content (eg link pseudonymous Hacker News posts with LinkedIn profiles or interview transcripts):
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3 days ago
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The problem with rules is not so much that there is almost always room for interpretation. It is that we always interpret themâeither they lend objective authority to our position, or they are not applicable.
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3 days ago
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Regels vertellen ons wat juist of fout is, maar zo gebruiken we ze zelden. Wat we wĂŠl doen is ons beroepen op hun gezag als ze op ĂŠĂŠn lijn staan met ons âredelijkeâ standpunt, en zo niet ze als niet van toepassing bestempelen: Mijn
@apache.be
stukje:
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3 days ago
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Research with US participants suggests a link between elevated salt consumption and depression, with genetic predisposition for higher salt intake associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms and of major depressive disorder:
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3 days ago
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Postpartum depression is one of the most common and debilitating complications of childbirth. But remedies improve, and now the discovery of biological markers that flag heightened risk through a predictive blood test offer hope for suffering mothers:
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3 days ago
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A remarkable relic from Cold War era espionage: a KGB cigarette pack spy camera that still works (sort ofâit was not exactly user friendly):
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4 days ago
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What precisely is wrong with reading other peopleâs mail, wonders @paulbloomatyale. And goes on to explore how conflicted we are when it comes to (our own and othersâ) privacy inclinations. Very good post:
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4 days ago
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We rarely use rules to inform us of what is right and wrong. Instead we use them for authoritative support if they align with our prior âreasonableâ position, or dismiss them as not applicable if they are not aligned:
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4 days ago
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Does poverty lead to risk aversion, or to risky behaviour? The research is ambiguous.
@bdecourson.bsky.social
et al propose a âDesperation Thresholdâ model that explains both: â˘basic needs still met â protect status quo â˘beyond â desperate risks (eg crime):
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4 days ago
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Regels zijn bedoeld om geschillen op een neutrale, niet-arbitraire, objectieve manier op te lossen. Waarom dan de controverse rond de OekraĂŻense helm op de Olympische spelen? Mijn @apache_be stukje legt uit dat niet de regels het probleem zijn:
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4 days ago
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Attention is truly a scarce resourceâand so easily squandered. @yousrimarzouki studies the field, and in this @psyche_the_mag guide offers an approach to reclaim it from the numerous distractions we are subjected to:
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HT @psych_writer
4 days ago
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The great Carl Saganâs âBaloney Detection Kitâ is 30 years old. Thereâs still as much baloney around as then (if not more), so in celebration,
@startswithabang.bsky.social
revisits this classic critical thinking instrument, and draws nine lessons:
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4 days ago
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Our âselfâ and our memory are interconnected, with memoryâconsisting of two systems, episodic and knowledge-basedâas âthe data base of the selfâ, argues Conway. Since our memory is reconstructed, so is our âselfâ:
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4 days ago
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âTrusting expert predictions often is a bad ideaânot because true expertise itself is hollow or overrated, but because what makes someone a legitimate expert is rarely their ability to function as an oracle.â @docgrawitch explains a crucial distinction:
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4 days ago
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Fake skin in the game Scientists develop 3D-printed skin that stretches and bleeds like the real thing (for training purposes only đ):
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4 days ago
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Rational choice theory (RCT) has become the normative standard for decision-making. However, it is deeply inadequate as a benchmark for good decisions, argues Barry Schwartz:
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via
@behscientist.bsky.social
5 days ago
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Replications of experiments are not the be-all and end-all of the (social) sciencesâit is important to understand what they do and what they donât do:
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5 days ago
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The true story why Ăthelred the unready was fatally unready to face the Vikings:
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5 days ago
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Albert Einstein is widely regarded as one of the smartest people everâbut what was his actual IQ? Plenty of speculation, but there is no evidence that he ever took an IQ test. Eric Dolan on what the IQ does and doesnât measure, and on Einsteinâs smarts:
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psypost.bsky.social
5 days ago
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Bed-rocking rocks Continuous lateral rocking (0.25Hz) overnight makes people fall asleep faster, and improves both sleep quality and memory consolidation, research by Perrault et al finds:
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5 days ago
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Can a rulebookâlike the International Olympic Committeeâs, which sets out what athletes are and are not permitted to put on their attireâunequivocally settle controversies? No. How come? The problem is not the rules:
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5 days ago
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The difference between legal sports betting and reckless legalization Interesting podcast/transcript on how betting apps use all the tricks from the slot machine book on your phone, and exploit instead of protect those who are âspirallingâ:
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5 days ago
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