🚨 3 surveys close Sept 28 - 30! Get your predictions in by the end of the month: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1. Digital Mental Health: Evidence from Mexico 2. Aid, Economic Recovery and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq 3. Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions

📢 New on the SSPP: does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioeconomic skills? Ramin Izadi et al. welcome your predictions. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e3... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: Oct 15

📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09... @cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

🚨3 surveys close Sunday, Aug 31! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1️⃣ Role of monthly office days in a fully remote work model 2️⃣ Correlation between statistical significance and media attention -💰incentives based on forecast accuracy 3️⃣ Effects of providing information to potential workers

New on the SSPP: is there a correlation between statistical significance and media attention? Lester Lusher, Sunmi Jung, and Brianna Funderburk welcome your predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/db... 💰Incentives based on accuracy ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Economics 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

🚨 Closing tomorrow! Forecast how accurate people are at forecasting with the SSPP team's meta-survey: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f...

New on the SSPP: what are the economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks? Make forecasts below on this study by @mihaicod.bsky.social: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/46... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Labor Econ 🗓️Closes: Oct 31

New on the SSPP: What is the impact of VAT exemptions on food in an informal setting in Papua New Guinea? Christopher Hoy et al. welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/2b... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

New on the SSPP: What will be the outcomes of a livelihood support program in Iraq for microentrepreneurs? Study by Andrea Caflisch et al. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e5... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

New on the SSPP: How does remote work impact job satisfaction and productivity among call center agents in Turkey? Study by Cevat Giray Aksoy, @nickbloom.bsky.social, and co-authors. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/17... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

New on the SSPP: what are the impacts of an AI-driven mental health smartphone app in Mexico? @mangeluc.bsky.social @raissafabregas.bsky.social, and Antonia Vazquez welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/56... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: Aug 13

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does providing information on attractive occupations to job seekers impact employment and earnings? @bryanstuart.bsky.social and coauthors welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/01... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Labor Econ 🗓️Closes: Jul 31

🚨4 surveys close Mon, June 30th! Make your predictions at: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1⃣ Predicting tax non-compliance in Kampala, Uganda 2⃣ Politically motivated reasoning 3⃣ Predicting the impacts of self-promotion 4⃣ Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions?

Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform! Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does using self-promotional language impact responses to requests for support? @jennychang.bsky.social et al. designed a field experiment and invite you to predict their findings: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/6e... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: June 30

New on the SSPP: How does subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and farmer education impact farmers' decisions in Punjab? New study by Piyush Gandhi, who welcomes your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/ad... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: July 15

New on the SSPP: Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions? April Wang et al. look forward to your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/66... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30

New on the SSPP: Do business support programs actually help businesses grow and succeed in the UK? Maria Brackin and Rob Fuller welcome your predictions on turnover and employment outcomes! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ ⏱️15 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30

🚨Closing this Saturday, May 31! How accurate are CEO forecasts of future revenues? Don't miss the chance to make a prediction on this survey and be entered into the lottery for $100.

New on the SSPP: What are the attributes of politically motivated reasoning? Robin Musolff & Guy Yanay invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/93... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30 💰Lottery-based incentives

🏆 Winner Announced! 🏆 Congratulations to Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert — winners of the 2025 SSPP Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award ($10,000) for “Beliefs about choice reversals”! See the winning survey here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/f6...

New on the SSPP: How prevalent is tax non-compliance among businesses in Kampala, Uganda? Yannick Markhof, Stephan Dietrich, and Rose Camille Vincent invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: May 31

🚨Closing tomorrow! Some online retailers use nudges to influence choices. But do consumers find them ethical? @kellenmrkva.bsky.social, Ashley Otto, and Yuna Choe invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/...

New on the SSPP: How do CEOs forecast future revenues and how accurate are they? @nickbloom.bsky.social, @mihaicod.bsky.social, and Robert Fletcher welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/85... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Management 🗓️Closes: May 31

New on the SSPP: How did "deep" efforts to turn out the vote compare to standard approaches in the 2024 general election? Daniel Markovits and Donald Green invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Poli Sci 🗓️Closes: April 30

New on the SSPP: How will people across countries respond to energy price reforms? Christopher Hoy and coauthors invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: April 30

New on the SSPP: How strong is our preference for conformity? 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 How do incentives influence it? Ozan Isler and Daniel Zizzo welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 10 min 🗓️Closes: April 22 📚Field: Behavioral Econ 💰Incentives based on accuracy

📢 Closing soon! Beliefs about choice reversals 🔄 How well do people predict their own future decisions about work? Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert analyze expectations vs. reality: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 🗓️Closes March 31 🕐 15 min 💰Incentives available

🚨4 surveys close March 31! 1️⃣Cash transfers: Chicago @alexbartik.bsky.social @smiller.bsky.social @elizabethrds.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social 2️⃣Beliefs abt Choice Reversals 3️⃣Digital Empowerment: India @mridul.bsky.social @jalnidh.bsky.social 4️⃣Cognitive Development: Kenya @tedmiguel.bsky.social

🚨 I am looking to hire 1-2 pre-docs at the University of Toronto. Some things you could work on: forecasts of research results, guaranteed income, evidence-based policy, AI. For more info and to apply: evavivalt.com/2025/03/pre-... Deadline: March 31. #predoc #econ_ra @econuoft.bsky.social

🚨 Closing March 25! How do people react to "one-time" taxes & fiscal policies? Make predictions on a study by @abergeron.bsky.social, @lukasbolte.bsky.social, and @jakobbrounstein.bsky.social on behavioral responses to fiscal events 💸 ⏱️Time: 15 min socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/a5...

New on the SSPP: How do digital nudges used by online retailers influence consumer choices? @kellenmrkva.bsky.social, Ashley Otto, and Yuna Choe invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️ 10 min 📚 Econ, Psych 📅 Closes: April 18 @evavivalt.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: What is the impact of informing voters about candidates’ criminal records? Siddharth George & Yusuf Neggers welcome your predictions about their study in Uttar Pradesh! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️ 5 min 📚 Field: Econ, Poli Sci 📅 Closes: April 15

In today's blog, @tedmiguel.bsky.social & I discuss how to use the @socscipredict.bsky.social Social Science Prediction platform for research on economic development. Use cases include providing alternative nulls and defense against "it's obvious", priors, & more blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...

New on the SSPP: What factors predict publication in a Top 5 economics journal? We welcome your predictions on a study by @prashantgarg.bsky.social and @trfetzer.com analyzing author and paper characteristics. socialscienceprediction.org/s/ba04az ⏱️ 10 min 📚 Field: Econ 📅 Closes: April 30

🎉 We’ve hit 100 projects on SSPP! A huge thank you to all the researchers, forecasters, and supporters who made this possible. We're excited to share new platform updates soon! And as always, we welcome your predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/

New on the SSPP: How do childhood cognitive abilities shape midlife & intergenerational outcomes? A study by @tedmiguel.bsky.social, Walker, Byambaa, et al., using Kenya Life Panel Survey data. ⏱️ 10 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ 📅 Closes: March 31 socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/6e...

New on the SSPP: Can a digital empowerment curriculum impact college students' smartphone and social media use in India? Study by @mridul.bsky.social, @jalnidh.bsky.social, and Lena Song! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/38... ⏱️ Time: 10 min 🗓️ Closes: March 31 📚 Field: Econ

New on the SSPP: How do one-time fiscal events (like debt forgiveness) shape behavior? @abergeron.bsky.social, @lukasbolte.bsky.social, and @jakobbrounstein.bsky.social invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/a5... ⏱️ Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: March 25, 2025 📚 Field: Econ

🚨 Closing soon! Make predictions on a study by Rafael Suchy & Séverine Toussaert investigating preference stability in choices through food ordering. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/d6... ⏱️Time: 15 min 🗓️Closes: Dec 13 💰Lottery-based incentives

New on the SSPP: How robust is commitment demand? Rafael Suchy & Séverine Toussaert investigate preference stability in choices on a food ordering platform. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/d6... ⏱️Time: 15 min 📅Closes: Dec 13 💰Lottery incentives for accuracy @evavivalt.bsky.social

⏳Closing Nov 30! Predict the effects of unconditional cash transfers in Chicago and Cook County. From a large large-scale pilot by Abdul-Razzak, Bartik, @smiller.bsky.social, Rhodes, and @evavivalt.bsky.social. ⏱️ 20 min 💰 Prizes available for accuracy! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/bf...

What types of questions can be forecast on the #SocSciPrediction Platform? How can the SSPP help address publication bias and quantify how much we learn from a given study, including null results? Watch our short promo video to find out. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ge5L...