🚨 New working paper! How well do people predict the results of studies? @sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇

Very interesting work by @evavivalt.bsky.social and @sdellavi.bsky.social. Particularly intriguing is the finding that a surprising negative relationship between confidence and accuracy is accounted for by a subset of persistently overconfident forecasters.

Dunning-Kruger effect in practice: In 53k forecasts across 100 projects, people who are more confident are actually much less accurate. New 📄 by @evavivalt.bsky.social & @sdellavi.bsky.social

Excited to announce our amazing lineup of speakers for the 2026 JDM preconference at SPSP! Conference date: Feb 26th Location: Chicago Deadline to apply: Oct 23rd. Application link: spsp.wufoo.com/forms/2026-p... cc: @sdellavi.bsky.social, @hirshmansam.bsky.social, @vinisingh.bsky.social

📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09... @cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

Not quite sure how to put it all in words, but I just spent an extraordinary day celebrating my dissertation adviser, Larry Katz. Feeling grateful, proud, and (re-) inspired. Larry has raised so many extraordinary economists that being in the same room as them was overwhelming.

Nobel prize winner George Akerlof (my former colleague) on the firing of statistics officials: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...

I was the AEA's President Elect as the first Trump term began. We worried about government statistics then, and appointed a committee that included members (such as Google's Chief Economist) who might be in a position to help make reliable statistics available if the government went dark. #econsky

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

I have both *thoughts* and *feelings* about Trump attacking Harvard. And I want to share them with you.

This was a really nicely-done survey - strongly encourage people to check it out! Congrats to the winners!

Very excited to share this new working paper, joint with @sdellavi.bsky.social, Guido Imbens, and Woojin Kim bsky.app/profile/nber...

Lise is a terrific economist with so many ground breaking contributions... as well as one of the most caring and genuine persons you will find. Very well deserved!

I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social

The Social Science Prediction Platform has a new feature: a leaderboard showcasing those who provided the most forecasts or were the most accurate. Forecasters can opt into displaying their name. You can also see your own rank if logged in. Check it out! @socscipredict.bsky.social