PWBM has produced up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025 based on updated trade and tariff data recently released by the USITC. (1/3) See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. (1/2)

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. (1/2)

We use updated trade and tariff data released by the USITC to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025. (1/4)

#PWBM is excited to announce that applications are now open for the Fall 2025 Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program...(1/4)

It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measures, including GDP per capita, and the average wage rate... (1/4)

We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 in 10 years and falls by 4.6 in 30 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years...(1/2)

We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.... (1/2)

Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that increasing the SALT limit from $30,000 to $40,000, with a phase-out starting at $500,000, will add another $109.1 billion in primary deficits over the 10-year budget window....(1/3)

If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1% in 10 years and 24.3% in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5%. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. #TCJA budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with higher rates for high-income households. We consider three options...(1/4)

Our previous analysis demonstrated that the Trump Administration's major tax proposals would require expiration if combined with the FY2025 House budget reconciliation...(1/2)

Treasury data through April 28 shows that tax receipts are broadly in line with government projections made earlier this year, before the downsizing of the IRS was announced. Receipts from tariffs have significantly exceeded projections. (1/2)...

Excited to have @PWBM’s work featured in Knowledge at Wharton — covering the economic impact of proposed U.S. tariffs. With insights from Kent Smetters on Wharton Business Daily: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... Read the full story: knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-... (1/2)...

Many trade models fail to capture the full harm of tariffs. PWBM projects Trump’s tariffs (April 8, 2025) would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%... (1/2)

We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either high-skilled immigrants broadly or only high-skilled STEM workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies.... (1/2)

Applications are now open for the Spring 2025 Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program! Led by Prof. Kent Smetters, this program provides a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy....