If Trump succeeds in pressing the Fed to cut rates more than it would otherwise, the US would see slower growth through most of the 2030s & higher inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts Read: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/erosion-fed-independence-would-slow-us-economic-growth-and-boost

love a good explainer thread

Milei’s efforts to correct fiscal imbalances & deregulate the economy have surpassed expectations & deserve international support. Such backing should be contingent, however, on policy & political reforms, Alejandro Werner writes in @financialtimes.com:

While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, & there would be serious tax administration concerns.

WATCH: Jeffrey Schott joined the Korea Economic Institute of America to discuss challenges & opportunities in US–Korea trade relations, including tariff policy, opportunities for cooperation in shipbuilding & LNG, the possibility of Korea joining the CPTPP, & more.

The more US export controls try & freeze China in place, the more they risk forcing Chinese AI firms to go all in on developing a homegrown AI ecosystem, when existing controls already lock in a massive compute gap, writes @chorzempa.bsky.social.

The US Administration has proposed an astronomical tax on lawful, high-skill immigrant workers. The economic evidence is clear about what Americans can expect: Less innovation, less entrepreneurship, lower productivity. A diminished future. My new summary at @piie.com —>

In this week's episode of Policy for the Planet I spoke with my wonderful colleague @eribakova.bsky.social about how critical minerals might help Ukraine rebuild its economy. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. @piie.com @adamposen.bsky.social policyfortheplanet.com/how-ukraines...

The latest episode of @mdebolle.com's Policy for the Planet features @eribakova.bsky.social discussing how Ukraine could pivot to a reconstruction with a green transition. Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: policyfortheplanet.com/how-ukraines...

If the US supports formal dollarization in Argentina, it would weaken the IMF's hand, could create conditions for regional confrontation with China, & would be a one-way street—once a country adopts a currency other than its own, it's difficult going back. By @mdebolle.com:

Argentina is in crisis. A US rescue may invite new problems, writes PIIE’s Monica de Bolle www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

NOW: @veron.bsky.social launches What Now, Europe? our new event series & podcast on Europe's challenges in a turbulent new era. The first episode discusses Ukraine as a future EU member with Oleksandra Azarkhina. Watch live: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

The White House, by proclamation, hopes to kneecap America’s largest high-skill work visa. This move will undermine US innovation, productivity, and job creation. And the White House knows this, because it’s in the evidence that it read but—somehow failed to mention. My new post at @piie.com —>

My latest piece on Argentina: @piie.com @adamposen.bsky.social www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

NEW: If successful, the H-1B change would severely damage the most important channel for US entry by workers with advanced degrees & specialized knowledge, causing profound & widespread harm to Americans’ incomes & job opportunities. By @mclem.org:

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

SEPTEMBER 23: @cullenhendrix.bsky.social joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss how climate change is shaping health & security & how government responses on critical minerals, tech, & more shape our future. Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts:

“H-1B visas cause innovation...entrepreneurship...more R&D investment,” says @mclem.org. “They cause higher productivity in the whole US economy, which generates job opportunities & higher earnings for native workers across the skill spectrum.”

TOMORROW: @veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe?—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era. Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union

The more US export controls try & freeze China in place, the more they risk forcing Chinese AI firms to go all in on developing a homegrown AI ecosystem, when existing controls already lock in a massive compute gap, writes @chorzempa.bsky.social.

The astronomical new Skill Penalty on US work visas will hobble a core driver of productivity growth in the US economy. “H-1B visas cause innovation, they cause entrepreneurship, they cause more R&D investment,” I told the @wsj.com Very nice and balanced piece by @jdlahart.bsky.social —>

SEPTEMBER 25: Michael Barr, member of the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, delivers a speech exploring bank stress testing & discusses potential reform options. Register: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/fed-governor-michael-s-barr-stress-testing-over-time-insights-future-reform

At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses

The formal review process for the USMCA has started ahead of next year's renegotiation. Check out everything you need to know about the future of the USMCA, from critical minerals to dairy to lumber to, of course, tariffs, & more: https://www.piie.com/microsites/2025/future-usmca

@veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe? launching September 23—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era. Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union

SEPTEMBER 25: Michael Barr, member of the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, delivers a speech exploring bank stress testing & discusses potential reform options. Register: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/fed-governor-michael-s-barr-stress-testing-over-time-insights-future-reform

@jasonfurman.bsky.social is holding a conversation with Kenneth Rogoff on the dollar. Watch here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

NOW: Kenneth Rogoff delivers the third annual Richard N. Cooper Memorial Lecture, "The future of dollar and global economic interdependence." @jasonfurman.bsky.social introduces & moderates. Watch live: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

SEPTEMBER 24: @cullenhendrix.bsky.social joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss how climate change is shaping human health & security & how government responses on critical minerals, tech, & more will shape the planet's future. Subscribe wherever you get podcasts. Live event:

At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses

TODAY at 1 PM ET: Join us for the third annual Richard N. Cooper Memorial Lecture "The future of dollar and global economic interdependence" by @krogoff! @jasonfurman moderates. Watch here: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/third-annual-richard-n-cooper-memorial-lecture-featuring-kenneth-rogoff

Trump has switched the United States’ role from global insurer to extractor of profit, @adamposen.bsky.social writes. The Trump administration promises to spare clients from its own assaults for a higher price than before.

Join us on September 26 for remarks & a conversation with Richmond Fed president & CEO on the US economic outlook. Register: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/conversation-tom-barkin-president-federal-reserve-bank-richmond

The formal review process for the USMCA has started ahead of next year's renegotiation. Check out everything you need to know about the future of the USMCA, from critical minerals to dairy to lumber to, of course, tariffs, & more: https://www.piie.com/microsites/2025/future-usmca

Oleksandra Azarkhina is a leading civil society activist and independent government adviser in Kyiv. I am proud and honored that she accepted to be the guest for the inaugural episode of this new series.

The first episode of @veron.bsky.social's new virtual series & podcast, What Now, Europe? on Sept 23 is with Oleksandra Azarkhina, co-founder of WeBuildUkraine & former Ukraine Deputy Minister of Communities, Territories & Infrastructure Development. Join live or subscribe to listen whenever:

SEPTEMBER 25: Michael Barr, member of the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, delivers a speech exploring bank stress testing & discusses potential reform options. Register: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/fed-governor-michael-s-barr-stress-testing-over-time-insights-future-reform

Europe arguably matters more than ever for the world, and Ukraine is the most fateful issue for Europe at this juncture. So that's the theme of the inaugural session of our new Europe-focused events & podcast series at @piie.com. Consider joining us on Tuesday! www.piie.com/events/2025/...

we talking think tanks? 👀 you can learn everything about us here: www.piie.com/about-piie and here: www.piie.com/about/transp... and here: www.piie.com/microsites/2... and also we have fun charts here: www.piie.com/research/pii... cheers :)

@veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe? launching September 23—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era. Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union

NOW: #PIIETradeWinds LIVE from Geneva #WTOPublicForum! @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social is speaking with @noiweala.bsky.social about tariffs, the global trading system, the future of the @wto.org, & more. Watch: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

We were pleased to co-host the opening plenary of the @wto.org #WTOPublicForum, moderated by our @chadpbown.com & @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social on "Trade, trust and transformation: Business perspectives." Watch here: youtu.be/ItHpmpYSsCw?...

At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/who-paying-trumps-tariffs-so-far-its-us-businesses

Trump has switched the United States’ role from global insurer to extractor of profit, @adamposen.bsky.social writes. The Trump administration promises to spare clients from its own assaults for a higher price than before.

NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers. There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports. More:

The first episode of @veron.bsky.social's new virtual series & podcast, What Now, Europe? on Sept 23 is with Oleksandra Azarkhina, co-founder of WeBuildUkraine & former Ukraine Deputy Minister of Communities, Territories & Infrastructure Development. Join live or subscribe to listen whenever:

NEW: @veron.bsky.social hosts virtual series & podcast What now, Europe? launching September 23—exploring Europe's future in a turbulent new era of economic, security, & governance challenges. Register to participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

From Jan–July 2025, U.S. musical instrument exports are 8.4% below the 2021–24 avg. Brazil (-28%), China (-27%), Italy (-23%), and Canada (-12%) saw sharpest Y-o-Y drops. Why? NOT retaliation (ex-China) - Higher input costs - Global economic uncertainty - Consumer substitution away from brands

NEW: From Jan-Jul 2025 US exports of musical instruments were 8.4% lower than average over same time 2021–24, likely reflecting higher input costs passed to consumers, dampened demand amid economic uncertainty, & for some, conscious substitution away from US products. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:

SEPTEMBER 24: @cullenhendrix.bsky.social joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss how climate change is shaping human health & security & how government responses on critical minerals, tech, & more will shape the planet's future. Subscribe wherever you get podcasts. Live event: