Each month, our experts dive deep into a notable trend in US immigration policy Make sure you’re getting the updates: https://bit.ly/USPolicySignUp

When we interviewed Salvadoran Temporary Protected Status holders in the DC metro area, access to CDLs was an important pathway to higher-paying jobs. In addition to the broader impacts for U.S. prices, there will be impacts for many immigrant families with lawful presence and work authorization.

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

And now the White House says the $100,000 doesn’t apply to current H-1b holders!

The folks at Microsoft know what they are talking about. Helpful for sharing with anyone you know on an H-1B

Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad. One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.

⬇️August CBP Data Takeaways⬇️ Still at low levels, but migrant encounters at/btwn POEs increased from 8K in Jul to 10K in Aug. Btwn POEs there were 6K encounters, mostly of Mexican migrants. That's 204 daily BP encounters, higher than the 148 in Jul, but significantly lower than under Biden.

"Los derechos más básicos en riesgo": los ciudadanos también sufren prejuicio racial por redadas migratorias I talked to @marcosmtzchacon.bsky.social at Univision about Trump's push for mass deportations and how increased immigration enforcement affects US citizens' rights:

The Trump admin plans to start discussions at the UN on revising 1951 & 1967 global refugee conventions that govern how asylum seekers and refugees are treated. Proposed changes include making migrants seek protection in the 1st safe country they enter, and making asylum only temporary.

3 different phenomena: 1) Deployment of National Guard* to city. 2) Takeover of city's local police to force cooperation. 3) Surging federal law enforcement to city for immigration arrests. LA got 1 and 3. DC got all 3. Chicago may avoid 1 but it ALREADY HAS 3. chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...

In a period roughly coinciding with the federal takeover of DC, ICE arrested 943 immigrants in DC, making up about 40% of the overall more than 2,300 arrests. Data from a subset of those cases suggest only a minority (22% in that sample) of the immigrants arrested had any criminal record.

Wapo article does a good job covering two realities: How deeply watching a parents‘ immigration arrest affects kids, and how DC residents are organizing “walking buses” and neighborhood lookouts to help kids with immigrant parents get safely to school. wapo.st/3VNYZ08

JUST IN: The DC Circuit won’t immediately block Judge Cobb’s ruling that sharply restricted the Trump administration’s ability to use expedited removal for immigrants living in the U.S. for years. The 2-1 decision keeps Trump’s policy on hold until at least late September.

😡

TPS terminations will affect Southern states the most. Nearly 1/3 of these TPS holders (404,000) live in Florida. Texas has the second-largest TPS population, home to 11% of TPS holders (147,000), followed by Georgia, with 4% (50,000).

For fellow immigration data nerds: The Congressional Research Service has updated it's invaluable report on Temporary Protected Status. Shows that 1.3 million(!) people had TPS as of the end of March 2025. Including 605,000 Venezuelans, 331,000 Haitians, 170,000 Salvadorans, and 101,000 Ukrainians.

"Miller’s team provides an updated report each morning on the arrests made the night before to staff from the White House, Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security, among others. The readouts include a breakdown of how many of those arrested are undocumented immigrants."

USCIS Director Joe Edlow says at a CIS event that the naturalization test should be harder and perhaps require a written essay on what it means to be an American. At the same time, the Trump admin has taken various steps to cut federal funding for English and civics instruction for immigrants.

USCIS, the agency that issues green cards and other work permits, plans to hire armed law enforcement officers to investigate fraud and other violations. It's the biggest move yet by the benefits agency to embrace a new role as an enforcement arm of the Trump administration immigration crackdown.

DHS is moving to terminate the 2021 Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation for Venezuelans. This brings the number of people whose TPS the admin is seeking to strip to over 1 million. www.uscis.gov/newsroom/new...

This year's Immigration Law and Policy Conference, organized by CLINIC, @migrationpolicy.bsky.social, and @georgetownlaw.bsky.social, will be on Thursday, Oct. 9. The in-person conference will be held at Georgetown Law Center and livestreamed for virtual attendees. 🔗 whova.com/portal/regis...

Big ruling on the Trump administration's attempt to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans. However, the implications for the roughly 350,000 people whose protections have already been terminated is so-far a little unclear. www.cbsnews.com/news/tempora...

The hundreds of immigrants that ICE has arrested in DC since the federal takeover are taken first to a holding facility in Chantilly, VA, where attorneys allege they are being held in poor conditions, with limited food, access to lawyers, or ability to bathe.

There is a checkpoint like this every single night in DC. DC police stop cars and ICE is on hand to question drivers. This is deeply not normal, but becoming a regular part of DC life.

I was speaking to a Latino resident this morning, and they said that people in the community are far less likely now to call the Metropolitan Police Department if they see a crime or are victims of one. The concern is over MPD's work with ICE, or at least the perception of it.

Park police, MPD, HSI, and IRS CI stopping people exiting Rhode Island metro in DC.

A judge ruled the Trump administration cannot deny funding to Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and 30 other cities and counties because of policies that limit cooperation with federal immigration efforts.

JUST IN: Judge rules State Department can't use Trump's 2nd-term travel ban to deny visas. But feds can still stop covered foreigners, either at border or from getting on flights. Still, advocates see an upside, especially if ban changes or ends www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Yesterday, the 9th Circuit court allowed the Trump administration to move forward with terminating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for about 61,100 people from Honduras (51,000), Nicaragua (2,900), and Nepal (7,200). TPS for Nepal is already gone, TPS for Honduras/Nicaragua will end on Sept. 8th.

Per usual, @daralind.bsky.social has written the most helpful of explainers. Here she breaks down what the National Guard is/isn't doing in DC, and how the DC police's new cooperation with ICE is a key ingredient leading to high immigration arrests during this federal takeover.

"the most visible impact of Trump’s federal takeover has been the immigration-enforcement.. Authorities have pulled delivery drivers off mopeds, arrested construction workers and demanded proof of legal status from vendors selling mangos and watermelons. Vehicle checkpoints have sprung up nightly.."

Over 200 immigrants have been arrested in DC since last week. We’ve heard very little about them, but a few bits of stories here: Christian Carías Torres from Venezuela; Gabriel Ravelo Torrealba, 22, from Venezuela, entered on CBP One; Jose Peña, from El Salvador, lives with his 16 year old son.

This story is not at all clear whether these are new revocations, or just a more-complete tally of the revocations we heard about this spring.

The federal checkpoint on 14th St in DC last week got a lot of attention because it happened in a dense neighborhood with a lot of people filming. But this checkpoint ⬇️ Saturday night was on a commercial stretch driven by more immigrants, with perhaps fewer bystanders around.

Stephen Miller has been spending time at DC police headquarters; over 120 immigrants were arrested in DC over the past week; the short-term future of DC’s policy limiting police cooperation with ICE is in the hands of a federal judge.

Biked home from Columbia Heights to in my uptown DC neighborhood around 11pm last night. Guess what I saw? People taking their dogs out before bed. A couple walking charmingly arm in arm. A few other people biking or scooting home. In case you’re wondering what scary things happen in DC at night.

The Trump administration is weighing a refugee ceiling of 40,000 for next fiscal year (or as low as 12,000) with the great majority of slots reserved for Afrikaners, and remaining slots for Afghan allies and possibly Ukrainians.

We DO NOT have firm evidence 1.6 million immigrants have left the US. This estimate come from the Current Population Survey, which has a small sample size & lots of uncertainty. & it could just be that immigrants are less willing to answer government surveys. More www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

We DO NOT have firm evidence 1.6 million immigrants have left the US. This estimate come from the Current Population Survey, which has a small sample size & lots of uncertainty. & it could just be that immigrants are less willing to answer government surveys. More www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

A D.C. Circuit panel just declined to pause implementation of the so-called “Alien Registration Requirement.” That rule now forces nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants ages 14+ to fingerprint, carry ID, or face criminal charges. 🔗 Read more here: www.courthousenews.com/dc-circuit-d...

DC, Maryland, and Virginia all offer limited-use driver’s licenses for unauthorized immigrants. This means most residents can get a legal license, but also that some may be forced to show officers a document that strongly indicates they lack legal status.

WaPo reports: “An officer at the scene told shouting onlookers that agents were checking for “driving eligibility” and “status.”” Ride share rider shared that questions asked of their driver included questions about immigration status. Gift link: wapo.st/47qWIPB

Police have set up a checkpoint and appear to be stopping every single car on 14th st NW, between W+V, here in northwest DC. Some cars are being pulled over after being stopped. Some police are wearing “HSI police” vests (Homeland Security Investigations)

To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.

It is VERY unlikely that the immigrant population dropped by 2 million since January, OR that the US-born workforce has recently soared. @jedkolko.bsky.social has done us all a favor and laid out the nitty-gritty of how using the Current Population Survey to make such claims is a "data felony."

Haven’t yet seen any federal forces in the course of my bike commute from uptown DC to downtown and back. But I did just pass a solo guy walking around downtown holding a “Reject Fascism” sign.

NEW CBP data for July confirm US-MX border trends continue to be low and relatively constant: ~8K encounters at/btwn POEs. Mexicans & Central Americans again represent the vast majority of arrivals and are more likely to be detained/deported. More @migrationpolicy.bsky.social takeaways here⬇️

⚖️ Noncitizens are filing more asylum applications than ever before in US history New govt. data shows the immigration courts are on track to receive *1 million asylum applications* in fiscal year 2025 Judges are denying more asylum apps than ever, but...

There is a thorny history of which persons living in the U.S. have been counted, and by how much, in census numbers that form the bedrock of U.S. democracy. But since the first U.S. census in 1790, this has been an unwavering truth: No resident has ever been left out because of immigration status.