3.5% Real personal consumption expenditure What the fuck is the matter with you people

“Just as renewables have experienced a dramatic transformation, batteries and hydrogen fuel have risen to meet the challenges of our energy future.” www.liberalcurrents.com/the-biggest-...

Been working on something big, separate from the Fed Model. Hopefully I’ll be able to share it soon.

The full spiked 60 Minutes CECOT package, clean & subtitled. 1/5

Small ish meme dump from this year, in no particular order

NEW: Israeli officials are increasingly concerned about the reconstitution of Iran's ballistic missile program. Read the Iran Update, December 22, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate12... Here is the latest ISW-CTP analysis about the reconstitution of Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. ⬇️ (1/8)

Bill Clinton has lived a rich full life, has already beaten life-threatening injury, and has nothing to lose here. Ball has always been in Chump’s court, and Chump has always refused to play ball.

Jews do not speak out against hatred because we are trying to shut down debate about Israel or foreign policy. We speak out because we want to stay alive.

Notre Dame is scared of playing BYU in a premier bowl game, but is happy to take them on in a meaningless regular season game. Scared to compete! Sad!

I understand there is reason for people to feel that times are not good, but I just don’t understand this. If your understanding of the past was borne through movies and media, the. I suggest you look at those movies and media more closely! We have it pretty good today, in a lot of ways.

I love watching It’s A Wonderful Life this time of year. In a world of Henry Potters, be a Sam Wainwright, the character who knows how to handle his money and his friends.

The realization that Non-Power-2-Conference teams will never have a chance at making the Playoff ever again, even as an undefeated conference champion. It hurts. The sport will be made measurably worse. But some stuffy suit-wearing freaks deem it necessary. So the majority of fans’ hopes will die.

I’m so tired. Tired of people claiming that Jews are under attack, while absentmindedly unwittingly joining in on that attack with rhetoric they don’t bother to understand. (Not this poster necessarily, just made me think of them).

The Epstein Files, everybody!

Idk that tinkering with Excel or Google Sheets to create accounting software counts as coding, but if it does, I certainly see why Claude is the best for coding.

Making Kennesaw State and Western Michigan play at 11 am on a pre-Christmas Friday should be as criminal as sending players stacks of cash in fast food bags.

It appear that BLS made a big judgment error in its shelter calculation (effectively assuming 0 in October), leading to inflation understated. It is, however, very unlikely this error was political. If anything the opposite: they stuck to algorithm rather than using judgment.

Tell me why I should put stock into this month’s CPI report as accurate, when this is the chart of monthly changes. I have no doubt it’ll get better over time, but seems… incomplete.

This is what the BLS CPI tables look like. Mostly blank spaces. You have to impute from 2-month changes in the annual rates. But imputing does suggest general good news.

November CPI (nothing for October) Headline +2.7% YoY vs +3.1% expected Core +2.6% YoY vs +3.0% expected Initial claims 224k vs 225k expected Continuing claims 1897k vs 1920k expected DOVISH

If we are banning cell phones for kids we need to be talking about banning chatbots for boomers www.persuasion.community/p/my-chatgpt...

Labor markets weakness is all about uncertainty, not AI. www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...

Open source could pop the AI bubble — and soon ft.trib.al/DUmq3FQ | opinion

I’m late to leaving the NVDA party but I’ve now left. Will look for the next big name to sell puts on. Seems enough of a rotation out of big tech that we’re better off picking up some shares and trading better names. Take profits, don’t chase profits.

Pete Buttigieg proposed a year of national service after high school and before college. He didn’t say military, it could be anything. But it was meant to foster bonds of community and get kids out of the house. Contrary to the hysteria here otherwise, it’s a good thing to think about.

“If our opponent is to be made to comply with our will, we must place him in a situation which is more oppressive to him than the sacrifice which we demand”

😭😭😭

i'm sorry if you don't like this. learn to read history

In a short video, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen explain why maintaining the independence of the Fed is so important to U.S. prosperity. Via @brookings.edu www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeIA...

Trending a bit down on the actual data released, as expected and predicted. I’m expecting a 3-3.5% Q3 which will bring YoY 2025 to the upper 1% range. Q4 data hasn’t been stellar. In other words, a trend growth year in an above-trend stimulative environment.

slight edit to this chart, the axis in the top right chart cut off the -108k job losses for October

US #Jobsreport Oct/Nov '25: ❄️"Frozen & weak" 📅Nov 🟠Payrolls +64k 🟠Private +69k 🟠Gds +19k 🟠Services +50k 🔻Gov -5k ✅Diffusion 57% 🚨October: -105k 🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k 🟠Hours +0.3% 🔺#Unemployment 4.6% ✅Part rate 62.5% 📉Wages ✅+0.1% m/m ✅3.5% y/y

Amazed at all the poasters here going ‘wow trump really screwed up now with this Reiner thing what a bad guy he is the voters will learn from this’. These people don’t care about decorum.

Critical solidarity with Joey here. I have to say, I’ve read the most books in a year since school this year, and I’m considering toning it down next year, because the vocabulary and comprehension skills it teaches you makes you incompatible with modern life, and alienates you from people.

I still firmly believe that something in America has to break, materially enough that our entire standard of living is somehow decreased, for things to get better culturally. It’s why I left twitter originally, it’s hopeless to stop the process, just let it do its thing.

It’s still going to be Hassett. Fed Independence died months ago, you’ve gotta open your eyes and see the reality.

Trump is suffering from extremely severe death anxiety, likely as a result of whatever medical diagnosis has him taking IV drugs that fuck up his hand every few weeks. He's not trying to commemorate anything, he's trying to become immortal via monuments.

How do these people look at themselves in the mirror. How do they see themselves as good people. I will never understand how such depravity can be so normalized.

There’s a legitimate and widely understood concept called Stochastic Terrorism, the belief that public figures who use increasingly radical words in public, will lead to people, perhaps crazy or perhaps previously stable, doing increasingly radical actions in private. 1/

Russia destroyed 100% of Odesa’s energy infrastructure. All substations were destroyed by missiles and drones. The city has been completely left without electricity, hot water, and heating for over one million people, including all critical infrastructure.

This will spell the death of college athletics. I will always be against this, even when my school flirted with it last year. No good can come from this.

One month since paying for the Anthropic $20/month plan and I can confidently say this is one of the best value products I’ve ever paid for, for its price. On top of the Fed Model I’ve talked about, it’s helped with my trading, and a few other projects I’ve started that I’ll hopefully present later.

The reason likely has to do with the overwhelming correlation between people who will have to pay these higher healthcare payments, and people have have effectively fallen out of the calculations for consumer spending in our national data. We were worried this day would come, it’s just about here.

If there’s one macabre silver lining to this abysmal situation, it’s that maybe folks will understand what genocide actually looks like, and will stop referring to things that aren’t genocides as genocides. This absolutely fits the description.

Even when her lord husband was alive, she’s always looked so angry. I guess that’s how the religious nuts like em.

In the spirit of emulating our professional and mature leadership in the White House, I will henceforth be calling the trade deal negotiated with our northern and southern partners by its correct acronym, CUM-AS.