Yup.

There's a guy named Jaxson Dart?

Once more, the questions are: Will GDP growth in the future be higher than in the past? Will the share of GDP claimed as corporate profits be higher than in the past? Will the share of profits paid out be higher than in the past? Will investors pay more for given income than in the past? Otherwise….

Great song. www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8Xm...

Depending on who you believe, this is about the amount of inflation the ARP created. (my head canon is that it was higher - about 2pp, which I think I got from some fed note years ago)

Whoa hold up there Thiel, you're supposed to wait until a wealth tax is on the table and then make a big scene about how you're basically being forced to leave the US.

Here's a component graph showing why bottom 50% incomes are declining. It is a little bit declining real wages and mostly declining transfer payments, which is largely about OBBBA.

Yes, it also does product prices. E.g. here's a 're-opening' of Hormuz right about now: Crude prices stay >$90 through at least August. Jet fuel and diesel follow a similar pattern.

Important milestone today - inflation-adjusted Personal Income for households is now lower, year-over-year, than it was last April. Households have 0.4% less income now. It's starker for my estimate of bottom 50% households - 1.6% less income.

This is a terrible portrait. Your crazy old uncle on a bill.

Isn’t this literally how prediction markets should work? The whole idea is to draw out insider info. Suing These people is admitting that you’re just a bookie.

Policymakers often rely on top income and wealth thresholds, like the top 1 percent and top 0.1 percent, to study inequality. A new report from @austinclemens2.bsky.social breaks down how these benchmarks are constructed and how they shape tax policy analysis. equitablegrowth.org/research-pap...

Ok it would be pretty funny if Senate Rs refuse to let Trump surrender.

I know Americans can hardly talk right now but honestly what is happening in the UK

The most basic and banal opinion is that American public higher ed institutions are a fucking miracle that should be defended, but you are more likely to land real estate in right and centrist media institutions by ignoring or attacking that entirely correct view.

NYC is home to about 1 in every 16 Americans. 1 in 500 Americans is a farmer or rancher.

Courts rule against Trump again and again and again but NYT has the most ironclad presumption of innocence in the world. Billionaires are innocent until they're out of the news cycle.

what do you even say. Imagine writing this.

If you're a Democrat and you confirm someone who refuses to unequivocally say "Joe Biden won the 2020 election," you should lose your job.

I basically agree with the commodities people that Trump will have to make a deal to open the straits soon but I don’t see anyone taking the consequences of that seriously. Minimum cost now is allowing Iran to toll or have a nuke program right?

It’s a bummer because Frank was a cool guy once. He wanted finance guys to take financial management classes as a condition of GFR bailouts. Then he went on to work for a bank so shit happens I guess.

Dollar Tree CEO's compensation nearly doubled, from $7.7M to $14.7M. Median employee annual comp increased less than 4% (from $15,602 to $16,214). Also, the number of employees declined by 50K. Sharp CEO pay increase + small employee pay increase + fewer employees = today's economy.

When the labor market looks wobbly, people often look to subgroup unemployment rates (eg for non-white or young workers) for signs of what’s to come, but do they actually predict changes in the overall UR? I have a new short piece on this out today for @clevelandfed.bsky.social.

Who fucking cares. Stop talking to ex-Rs

What is the best album-ending song and why is it Can't Hardly Wait?

It's crazy that this guy is still around, doing the same stuff. I read one of his books in high school, 27 years ago. Everyone wants intellectual diversity and new viewpoints but no one is willing to term limit opinion columnists.

You would be surprised how many reporters on the Times and the Post are exactly like this, just kidding, you know how to read, you would not be surprised at all

When we took office, NYC had a $12B deficit. Today it’s zero. And we didn’t close that gap on the backs of working people. We closed it while funding parks, libraries, safer streets, & public housing. Call it Pothole Politics or Democratic Socialism: We are government that delivers for the people.

On earth 2 we didn't start a war and create a huge energy shock and... We're still talking about energy inflation Electrictiy up 2.1% FROM LAST MONTH

The billionaire money fighting California’s proposed wealth tax shows how fast extreme wealth translates into outsized political power in this country. Great piece from the incomparable @rbreich.bsky.social, citing our research on how billionaire political influence has surged post-Citizens United.

Let's talk about how companies aren't adjusting earnings for multibillion-dollar investment gains 💸 www.tker.co/p/q1-2026-ga...

Pierre Bourdieu once argued that the question of whether something is art isn't answered by the artist's intention or even the object itself. Instead, the quality of being "art" is conferred by a community — curators, dealers, auction houses, audiences, etc. 🧵

Marie Antoinette would blush. Just mind-breaking that people who command resources we can't even dream of, the most fortunate people in the history of humanity, are petulant little cry babies, constantly wetting themselves in anger.

⚡️ HAPPENING NOW — “THE DISTRICTS MAY NOT BE CHANGED BETWEEN APPORTIONMENTS….” Tennesseans are reading the law Republicans are breaking to steal representation from Memphis out loud before rules committee

Legacy media is going to have to find an even more obscure presidential candidate to elevate

Karateka. Spent so many hours in my childhood getting murdered by stupid birds and karate guys.

15 best movies; don’t think about it too hard! Lawrence of Arabia Throne of Blood Truman Show Eternal Sunshine The Trial Home for the Holidays Young Adult Metropolis Sunset Boulevard The Dreamers Moulin Rouge Wings of Desire Marie Antoinette House Bunny Blade Runner

Truly. It is so easy to get the press on your side for a war. An Iran war? Even easier! Incredible to fumble the bag this badly.

ICYMI, I looked at what yesterday's Personal Income release implies for the bottom half of US households – using the composition of these households' income in 2023, I find that current trends imply that income is falling faster at the bottom of the distribution.

All the K-shaped recovery punditry seems kinda pointless to me. Every modern US economic expansion is k-shaped. That's just how our economy works – business income and asset income expand faster than wages do in expansions.

It's a little confusing what's happening here but I guess Meta passed video from Meta Ray-Bans (maybe video that was modified by Meta's AI?) to contractors who reviewed it and tagged it to improve AI, and some of that video was uh... intimate.

GDP came in solid, at 2%, but real Personal Income is down 0.5% on the quarter. PI growth has been sliding since Q1 of 2025! More charts below!

US spending on data centers & computers has grown so much that it's larger than basically all other physical investment categories—more than all single-family housing construction, factories, power plants, industrial equipment, apartments I'm running out of points of comparison

GDP came in solid, at 2%, but real Personal Income is down 0.5% on the quarter. PI growth has been sliding since Q1 of 2025! More charts below!

I think it's time for Ds to admit that a lot of election stuff is just random and out of our control, and to focus on things in our control—what we do in power, what procedures we can use to end gop advantage (this means expanding the court, first of all.)

Great art makes you think about things in new ways, often by exposing you to new perspectives. What's proposed here can almost by definition only create shitty, contrived art that simply reflects your own mind back at you.

When I was in college I had a little Mao pin on my backpack. One day, an old Chinese lady came up to me on campus and smiled and pointed at the pin. Her and her family fled China during Mao's regime. I immediately felt more cringe than I had ever felt in my life. Discarded the pen then and there.

Texas Senate poll (University of Texas) 🔵 Talarico 40% 🔴 Cornyn 33% 🔵 Talarico 42% 🔴 Paxton 34% texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202604...

I have a sign in my window that is anti-ICE but it does feature a person in a Keffiyeh holding a molotov cocktail. Anyways someone slipped a hateful note under my door telling me to take my sign down written in different colors of marker. It's two pages front and back. A first for me!

apparently US is anomalous even if you normalize by VMT