Arsenal Progressive Passes, Box Completions and Key Passes - Brentford vs Arsenal

For what it is worth (decent amount given skin in the game and if you're wildly wrong you lose money) the betting futures have Arsenal at +1.328 to win the title in the wake of this draw. That translates into 75% to win the title implied odds, down from 82% at the start of the round. Some context.

Arsenal's Goal Probability Added - Brentford vs Arsenal

Arsenal - Brentford vs Arsenal Deep Touches Saka with just 1 touch within 25 yards of goal here. That's not a recipe for success for Arsenal.

Kelleher does a very good job closing this down, Martinelli did okay actually with the placement just didn't lift it quite enough but still think it is a good save, and should do better type. Maybe taking it first time is best here.

Arsenal, Duels - Brentford vs Arsenal

Brentford vs Arsenal Deserve to win-o-meter Reflects how I saw the game for sure. Brentford, especially in the final 20-30 minutes outside a few moments looked much more likely to score.

Detailed Shot Map, Brentford 1-1 Arsenal

Brentford vs Arsenal Pass Networks

Brentford 1 (1.5)-(0.8) 1 Arsenal Well the title race is going to be much more interesting now...

That could have been worse for sure. Saka didn't have anything. Odegaard basically became a zero after the injury. Huge credit to Brentford because they looked like the more dangerous team for basically all but 15-20 minutes of this match. 4 points ahead and it is still in our hands. Tough league.

Kayode's long throws are so damn good and dangerous.

Glad to see Saka and Odegaard back in the team and fit enough for the bench. It is a bummer about Saliba out ill but I still feel quite confident with Mosquera stepping in. He's been a huge signing this season. It's a big match for Eze, looking for him to step up and make an impact today.

Brentford vs Arsenal - Simulated Match Odds Can Arsenal deal with pressure? Brentford are tough but still a match you expect a title winner to win more often than not.

I kind of love the pressure that comes with a title race. It makes everything feel more alive. The potential pain hopefully makes the eventual success sweeter.

Footballer Thomas Partey facing two additional rape charges www.bbc.com/news/article...

Playing around with shot plotting a bit more, is it helpful to have the pass/carry information here?

Sunderland vs Liverpool - Simulated Match Odds

Wednesday's early matches simulated odds. All the Arsenal eyes will be on if the ex-Arsenal contingent can cause City problems.

I didn't expect it to be easy, but it is more complicated than I imagined trying to classify phase of play from event data. It's a fun problem to work through, and it breaks the stereotype of data people not watching.

Arsenal Compared to Corresponding Fixtures Last Season Points: +12 (56 vs 44) xG: +2 (42.87 vs 40.9) G: +4 (49 vs 45) xGA: -5.5 (16.15 vs 21.6) GA: -7.0 (17 vs 24) xG Dif: +7.4 (26.7 vs 19.3) G Dif: +11 (32 vs 21)

The current betting spread has Manchester City at 77.5 points but if you listened to many online Arsenal fans you'd think that line should be more like 85-86. This season, City's best 13-match run is 11-0-2. If they match that, they get to 83 points.

Playing around with the new xG model and here is what the Cole Palmer miss against Leeds looks like.

West Ham were 2-0 up on Chelsea into the 69th minute, and 1-0 up on United in the 95th minute and came away with a single point.

Arsenal could make the NLD on Feb 22 a St. Totteringham Day. Arsenal need just a combined 10 points won by Arsenal/dropped by Spurs to guarantee that they don't finish above.

Tottenham truly might get pulled into the relegation fight

Manchester United have snuck into the most likely to finish in 3rd spot on the back of 4 straight wins. All it takes is a little mini run these days and you can move quite a lot on the table with things being so compressed.

West Ham United vs Manchester Utd - Simulated Match Odds A good chance to make it five wins for Man U. West Ham will be desperate and could make it tough.

Which logo for Liverpool is generally the best practice? Seems like they have tended to use the ones without the gates more but both are official?

Round 26 kicks off with 3 matches, inlcuding a ones with Champions League and Relegation ramifications.

Premier League - Performance compared to Corresponding Fixtures

It was a big week for the narrative on the title race, but it wasn’t really a big week for the movement on the odds (it was much more City holding a glimmer of life rather than closing the gap). Champions League and relegation battles are getting interesting. Cannon Stats Simulation - 2026-02-10

The Cannon Stats very ordinary laptop, Premier League Simulated Match Odds - Round 26 Arsenal will go second this week for the last time in a while, I know there is the idea that they don't handle pressure well and this will be a chance to deal with it regardless of the result.

Premier League Points vs xPts - 2025-2026 Through Round 25

Premier League Weighted Non-Pen xG (70%) and Non-Pen Goals (30%) Through Round 25 Overall 11v11 Only Close Gamestate (+/- 1 goal) Last 10 played

Premier League Weighted xG - Time Played Winning, Drawing, and Losing through round 25

City picked up 1.68 on expectations with the win today. Arsenal Picked up 0.75 from their win. One less match where City can pickup points on Arsenal gone too. Arsenal will still be in a strong position here.

Just the second time Pep’s won at Anfield with City. That wasn’t the most convincing City performance with it being much more of a Liverpool collapse but they won’t particularly care.

What a bizarre ending

Just a dumb decision from Alisson, Liverpool just melted here under the pressure.

Holy smokes

7 - Shot creating actions for Leandro Trossard vs Sunderland, the most of any player in the match (next highest was 4).

Liverpool vs Manchester City - Simulated Match Odds The second biggest football match happening today. Rooting for the team in red I guess here.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace - Simulated Match Odds The weirdest current Premier League rivalry but hey it adds spice to a match that doesn't have all that much else going for it. The model is higher on Palace than it probably should be.

Weekly Update for Viktor Gyökeres - Goal and Shot Production for a 'successful' season A 30-minute brace will always do your numbers good.

Arsenal vs Sunderland Total xG, xA, Progressive Passes, and Goal Probability Added by Player

I am playing around with a new look for the shots at goal graphic. Do you think that this is better and more clear than the previous version? First image is the updated version, second is the original.

Arsenal vs Sunderland - Ball Progression

After a 1-1-3 start to the season where it looked like all the summer change at Brentford might have caught them out, they have gone on to pick up 35 points out the las 20 played. Since September 23rd, they have tied for the 5th most points in the League. That's mighty impressive from them.

Arsenal Progressive Passes, Box Completions and Key Passes - Arsenal vs Sunderland