Port Vale 0 (0.1)-(0.9) 2 Arsenal Arsenal are through to the next round

I’m interested and excited to see what this lineup has in store for us.

I remembered that someone told me yesterday that I didn't understand how expected points were calculated, and I had a little chuckle to myself. When he tried to explain it to me, he actually got it slightly wrong, but explaining the actual calculations/results in 280 characters is tough

Arsenal are +7.3 in npxG difference over the 13 matches that Rice and Merino have started in midfield together. Even with the additional context (injury/rotation heavy lineup combos) it’s probably just weird variance. More about Merino-Rice

You're not being told the full story about Merino-Rice - Adam digs into the Rice/Merino starting narrative and it's not nearly as simple as it seems www.cannonstats.com/p/youre-not-...

Here is how teams have performed this season compared to the strength of their schedule. We are only five matches in and the spread in schedule ratings is narrowing quite a bit here.

Premier League Simulation - 2025-09-23 Liverpool haven't played well but they have gotten 15 out of 15, that has given them a massive edge in the odds where they are still looked at like a team that will get better.

Premier League Points vs xPts - 2025-2026 through round 5. Liverpool still the biggest overperformers but the last couple have been better and has gotten them into the top 4 on xG difference

Why are people saying it’s just one win with Rice and Merino in midfield together? That’s not correct, it’s three wins with them Played 13, Won 3, drawn 6, lost 4. Hate on the selection and all that but don’t be wrong

I’m really bummed about Noni Madueke being out for 2 months. He was starting to build some nice connections and flash why he was bought over fan objections. The hits just keep coming for Arsenal and injuries.

Premier League Weighted Non-Pen xG (70%) and Non-Pen Goals (30%) through Round 5 Overall, 11v11, Close Game State

What makes a wide attacker "great"? - New post from Adam reflecting on some of the early impact of Madueke www.cannonstats.com/p/what-makes...

Ball progression - Arsenal vs Manchester City

3 - Matches with 0 shots taken by Viktor Gyokeres at Arsenal. 1 - Match with zero shots and at least 50 minutes played at Sporting. From Oct 26, 2022 through the end of the 24/25 season he had 3 matches with 0 shots taken in 119 total matches played.

Viktor Gyökeres - Goal and Shot Production compared to targets for a 'successful' season

Arsenal forced Manchester City to make 60 clearances in this match. That’s is the most ever in the FBref database by a comfortable margin where the previous high was 53 (2016), 46 (2014), 45 (2017), 45 (2016), 40 (2017).

Arsenal duels vs Manchester City

First thoughts: Manchester City (H) Thoughts at full time, big picture, the positives, and the negatives. Plus all of the graphics and visualizations from the match www.cannonstats.com/p/first-thou...

Arsenal vs Manchester City Total xG, xA, Progressive Passes, and Goal Probability Added by Player

Arsenal vs Manchester City Pass Networks

Bukayo Saka, Performance - Arsenal vs Manchester City He's indisputably the best player on this team and made a major difference coming on. It is actually pretty amazing that we still have confidence that the team can play these big games without him and expect to win.

Arsenal and Manchester City shot charts

The high angle here of Martinelli's equalizer is quite the shot. (Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City Each team compared to their Premier League performances this season

Arsenal vs Manchester City Deserve to win-o-meter Pep tried to shut up shop and it didn't work for him here. Ended up a pretty big point for Arsenal, because a zero would have been a real early setback in the title race. Martinelli with another huge game changing contribution

Arsenal 1 (0.8)-(0.7) 1 Manchester City Attacking Pressure and Pitch Control

Arsenal 1 (0.8)-(0.7) 1 Manchester City Arsenal gave up so much in those first 30 minutes and there will be questions on that initial lineup selection. Not losing here was huge, Newcastle now looking like as close to must win as you can get for Sept.

I didn't love how long it took for Arsenal to up the urgency here but the final 10 or so minutes started to look better. Maybe give 10 minute on the other side of the half and then look at what the bench options can change, or go straight to a sub here?

That Haaland goal was the first “big chance” Arsenal have conceded this season

Arsenal's results with Merino and Rice starting together in midfield (from FBref position data). Played 12, Won 3, drawn 5, lost 4 It's pretty obviously not super popular with the fanbase either and it is a big call from the manager.

I did not have a Trossard start on my list of things to expect. I did expect that midfield without Odegaard even I hoped that we’d see a more creative player central than Merino

Starting to feel the nerves here ahead of the Coty match. Even more so than vs Liverpool a few weeks ago, my expectations for a win being higher probably the big reason

If Odegaard isn't fit enough, the replacement decision is tough for Arteta. Merino gives more pressing and an out ball to go over if needed, it comes at the expense of buildup and resistance to press if he is deeper.

United still making us laugh 😆

Wolves and West Ham just look like dreadful teams. Both have been awful in the transfer market keeping the new talent flowing in and it shows

Physical Performance data is back for the Champions League but not for the Premier League. I have not seen anything from FotMob on that since they pulled it unless I missed it.

Here is the length of PL matches last season

36 - There were 36 matches in the Premier League that ended at 90+4 last season in the Premier League. The fewest added minutes were +2 in a non-blowout, which happened in Everton 0-0 Chelsea match. The average match end time last season was in the 97th minute

Liverpool can't keep getting away with this right? - Liverpool have now won late 5 times in 5 matches. There is no way that this is sustainable right? www.cannonstats.com/p/liverpool-...

Premier League 2025/26 - Round 5 odds and picks There were some games I almost bet on, but ultimately I ended up on these three: Crystal Palace -0.5 Manchester United +0.5 Brentford +0.5 www.cannonstats.com/p/premier-le...

Arsenal Last 5 Matches Played Running xG for and against Arsenal's defense has been damn good this season.

I spent some time looking at Liverpool’s late scoring; how sustainable it is and what it means for them and the title race going forward

Liverpool can't keep getting away with this right? www.cannonstats.com/p/liverpool-...

I couldn’t get my hotel WiFi to cooperate long enough to record so Adam went solo here giving his thoughts on a busy round one of the Champions League | Arsenal at San Mames www.cannonstats.com/p/arsenal-at...

The most dangerous moment for a team facing Liverpool is coming back from 2 goals down.

Here is the list of teams that have gone to the San Mames, created better chances and won going back to 2034/24

Ball progression Athletic Club vs Arsenal

I kind of expected a bit more rotation here. But who really knows how this works.

I didn’t expect this reaction to the little update I made to the field tilt (and the others similar) but it gave me a nice little chuckle

I knew this going to be a talking point. And I stand by what I have written here. Open play chance creation is something to care about but it’s just a part of what is actually important.