Dante Scala
@graniteprof.bsky.social
š¤ 1404
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Political science professor, University of New Hampshire. Opinions my own.
pinned post!
Signed.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
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Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education
Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education To add your name to this statement, go to https://bit.ly/DemocracyAndHigherEdSign We publicly affirm our commitment to the enterprise of higher educ...
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zoB6frOcE7Tx9Z2JeFjsXwZGCE07nIW0U2iBdr9m5js/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.gdc9ks2fapdr
8 months ago
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The Upshot
1 day ago
A governorās race will test the durability of the gains Trump made in 2024, when the stateās majority-Hispanic townships all swung in his direction. Via
@shanegoldmacher.bsky.social
and
@christinezhang.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
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What New Jersey Could Reveal About the Rightward Shift of Hispanic Voters
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/us/politics/republicans-hispanics-new-jersey.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xU8.BTPM.HoK4YB2QPx4T&smid=url-share
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Jonathan Bernstein
1 day ago
I don't think people properly appreciate just how badly Trump/Johnson have had to screw this up to achieve these results.
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John Gramlich
1 day ago
NEW from
@pewresearch.org
: Two-thirds of Democrats say their own party makes them feel frustrated. By far the biggest source of this frustration is the feeling that their party isn't pushing back hard enough against the Trump administration.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
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Christine Zhang
2 days ago
Teamed up with
@shanegoldmacher.bsky.social
to take a look at the NJ governorās race & what its results could tell us about the durability of Trumpās 2024 gains/ārealignmentsā
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...
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What New Jersey Could Reveal About the Rightward Shift of Hispanic Voters
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/us/politics/republicans-hispanics-new-jersey.html
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Brian Schaffner
3 days ago
atheist/agnostic Americans are now the biggest single voting bloc in the Democratic Party, and their leftist views may be alienating another of the party's traditional sources of strength ... new piece from me and Steve Ansolabehere
@goodauth.bsky.social
goodauthority.org/news/secular...
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Secular Democrats are on the rise
Fewer Democrats identify as religious. Thatās creating tension with Black voters.
https://goodauthority.org/news/secular-democrats-are-on-the-rise/
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Brennan Center
2 days ago
Election Day wouldnāt happen without the preparation, expertise, and commitment of state and local election officials. Because of them, voters can have their voices heard. Thank you, election officials.Ā
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Lee Drutman
3 days ago
"Does moderation matter? In our current two-party system? Not really. Presidential vote explains 98% of House outcomes. Candidate quality has collapsed to statistical noise."
open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...
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Kabir K.
3 days ago
Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry Check it out here:
aapor.org/announcement...
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Taniel
4 days ago
In exactly one week, itāll be Election Day. Ideal time to get familiar with all thatās at stakes besides the handful of headline races: my guide has 185+ electionsāfrom school boards and lawmakers to sheriffs and mayorsāand why they matter. Bookmark it: weāll be updating with results.
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Your Cheat Sheet to the 2025 General Elections - Bolts
Four contests have come to largely define the 2025 elections this fall: the elections to lead New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, plus Californiaās redistricting measure. But thereās so... Read M...
https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2025-general-election/
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Ariel Edwards-Levy
5 days ago
Really interesting work (and thoughts on experimental design)!
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@Above96th
5 days ago
ššš I was absolutely thrilled to spot a Black-throated Green Warbler flitting about Central Park's Reservoir. I hadn't had a good look at one all fall--until today! ššš
#Warbler
#CentralPark
#birding
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Mark Copelovitch
7 days ago
š It's important to keep pointing this out, even if our elected officials continue to fail to fulfill their oaths of office & put a stop to this now, because one day there will be a reckoning, & we want to document all the crimes fully & completely to make sure they never happen again.
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Helen Kennedy
7 days ago
Trump is in a snit with Canada so he just announced an extra 10% tariff on Canadian goods. I seem to remember how these tariffs were all part of some national emergency. His feelings are now a national emergency?
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Brendan Nyhan
7 days ago
Imagine what would have happened if Biden or Obama sent masked goons into deep red neighborhoods in Texas or Florida and they started grabbing people off the street and teargassing anyone who objected
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Bill Kristol
7 days ago
An embarrassingly obvious point, but... This. Is. Illegal. If anything like the rule of law were in force, Trump couldn't arbitrarily increase a tariff because he is annoyed. In important and increasing ways, the rule of law in the US no longer exists.
www.cnn.com/2025/10/25/b...
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Trump says heās increasing tariffs on Canada by 10% after Ontarioās Reagan ad | CNN Business
President Donald Trump said Saturday he is increasing the tariff on Canada by 10% over current levels, further escalating trade tensions over what he called a āfakeā ad that featured parts of an anti-...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/25/business/trump-tariffs-canada-reagan
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Michael McDonald
7 days ago
This early voting chart by estimated party by L2 via the Virginia Public Access project shows Democrats outpacing Republicans in total early voting by 80K or 10 percentage points. We don't have a good baseline comparison, but this appears consistent with polling showing Democratic candidates leading
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John Gramlich
7 days ago
Top states for data centers: 1. Virginia (643) 2. Texas (395) 3. California (319)
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
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Rick Hasen
8 days ago
Test run for 2026. Here's what I wrote in the NY Times about the federal government potentially interfering with the 2026 elections and what we need to do about it.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/o...
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Bradley P. Moss
8 days ago
If you see Federal officials interfering in your ability to freely vote in a private manner, document the issue and raise the problem to relevant legal authorities and public officials in your respective state and county.
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Tom Pepinsky
8 days ago
I cannot tell what's more ridiculous: that President Trump got hopping mad at this, or that the Reagan Foundation wants to sue over it. Imagine devoting your career to preserving Reaganās legacy and pitching a fit when someone quotes him
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James Downie
8 days ago
New AP-NORC poll: ā 25% of Hispanic adults have a favorable view of Trump, down from 44% in January ā It's Trump's lowest favorability with Hispanic voters since 2019. ā "About two-thirds of Hispanic adults under age 45 and Hispanic men now view Trump unfavorably."
apnews.com/article/hisp...
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Trump's favorability has fallen among Hispanics since January, a new AP-NORC poll finds
A new poll shows President Donald Trumpās favorability has fallen among Hispanic adults since the beginning of the year, a potential warning sign from a key constituency that helped secure his victory...
https://apnews.com/article/hispanics-trump-popularity-poll-presidential-approval-favorability-6d33973a92db786df0c6a55a8c6872ca
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Conrad Hackett
9 days ago
Nuclear reactors built or under construction since 2013 US: 2 China: 46
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How China Raced Ahead of the U.S. on Nuclear Power
The United States was once the undisputed leader in atomic energy. Now it is trying to catch up.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/22/climate/china-us-nuclear-energy-race.html
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Ariel Edwards-Levy
9 days ago
Love this experiment:
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Stephen Wolf
9 days ago
Major redistricting news: Virginia Dems could target 2-3 GOP House seats (though they could flip 2 anyway on the current map). Dems have far fewer opportunities to redraw maps for 2026 as Republicans try to re-gerrymander nationwide, so a new Virginia map in 2026 instead of 2028 would be a big deal
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Elizabeth N. Saunders
10 days ago
Trump just does what he wants. DOGE, ending USAID, ICE raids, national guard, and now this. Courts can slow it down but he's an act-first-and-never-apologize guy. What other things will he tear down?
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Taniel
10 days ago
Big lead for Prop 50 in a new CBS/YouGov poll: 62% yes, 38% no.
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
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Conrad Hackett
10 days ago
38% of Americans can't name anything they like about the Republican Party & 38% of Americans can't name anything they like about the Democratic Party.
news.gallup.com/poll/696635/...
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Michael Clemens
10 days ago
The 2020 election was free and fair, its result was legitimate, and this personās conspiracy theories about it were universally thrown out of court because they were fabricated. Conservative and Liberal Americans treasure our constitutional system, and we reject authoritarian rule.
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YouGov America
11 days ago
NEW Economist/YouGov Net favorability of Donald Trump [at the start of his second term | now] among U.S. adult citizens by age 18-29: +5 | -39 30-44: -6 | -14 45-64: +12 | -10 65+: -4 | -10
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
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Poll Tracker š
11 days ago
Net job approval for Donald Trump at the start of his second term | now among... White Americans +17 | +1 Hispanic Americans -5 | -42 Black Americans -31 | -74
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Matt Grossmann
11 days ago
Trump's redeployment of federal power is leading to an increase in (normally conservative) views among Democrats that the federal government has too much power & that agencies are ineffective, moving closer to Republican views.
news.gallup.com/poll/696191/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...
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Record-High 62% Say U.S. Government Has Too Much Power
Views that the federal government has too much power are now slightly higher than in previous years.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/696191/record-high-say-government-power.aspx
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If you can't do Guerrero, Raleigh's pretty good.
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11 days ago
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Anna Bower
12 days ago
EXCLUSIVE: One Saturday afternoon in October, my phone lit up with a notification. I glanced down at the message. āAnna, Lindsey Halligan here,ā it began. So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...
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Nathaniel Rakich
11 days ago
The government of Ontario paid for an anti-tariff ad starring Ronald Reagan during the
#BlueJays-#Mariners
game!
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Taniel
13 days ago
16 days left: hundreds of elections will be decided, and my guide walks you through 180+ that matterāand why. for the weekend crowd: take time to explore what's on the ballot, beyond NYC, Virginia, and Jersey. here:
boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
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Brian Schaffner
15 days ago
newest Tufts public opinion lab blog features Rolando Ortega exploring how Latino attitudes differ across generations
tufts-pol.medium.com/qu%C3%A9-est...
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ĀæQuĆ© EstĆ” Pasando? Generational Assimilation & Latino Americaās Rightward Shift
by Rolando Ortega (class of ā26)
https://tufts-pol.medium.com/qu%C3%A9-est%C3%A1-pasando-generational-assimilation-latino-americas-rightward-shift-8b3b431ab6a6
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Annie Waldman
16 days ago
Justice Brett Kavanaugh: āIf the officers learn that the individual they stopped is a U.S. citizen...they promptly let the individual go." The reality: Americans have been dragged, tackled, beaten, tased and shot by immigration agents. A must read from the very talented
@nicolefoy.bsky.social
:
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More Than 170 U.S. Citizens Have Been Held by Immigration Agents. Theyāve Been Kicked, Dragged and Detained for Days.
The government does not track how often immigration agents grab citizens. So ProPublica did. Our tally ā almost certainly incomplete ā includes people who were held for days without a lawyer. And near...
https://www.propublica.org/article/immigration-dhs-american-citizens-arrested-detained-against-will
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YouGov America
17 days ago
Economist/YouGov Oct 10-13: President Trump Views on Donald Trump's temperament, likability, and honesty have become more positive in the past month but remain below levels when he took office in January
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
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Steven S Smith
17 days ago
The (a) mid-decade redistricting games and (b) twisted arguments about congressional districting, for decades and in this morning's Court arguments, make a strong case for proportional representation in the House.
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Dan Hopkins
18 days ago
What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary? I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines)
@today.yougov.com
surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani. The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.
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Josh Chafetz
23 days ago
I'd rather the next Dem president + Congress put into place a bunch of Court-curbing mechanisms *and* far more strenuous presidency-curbing mechanisms. I don't think left-Caesarism is the best response here.
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Henry Farrell
24 days ago
"It wanted to signal strength. Instead, itās revealing its weakness. The administrationās need to break the academy is forcing it to make a desperately risky gamble."
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/o...
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Opinion | You Beat Trumpism by Banding Together. Itās as Hard and as Simple as That.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/opinion/trump-universities-compact-civil-society.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
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JM Rieger
24 days ago
The percentage of Americans who say Trump has definitely or probably improperly used his office to punish those who say things he does not like, per new Pew Research Center survey: Overall: 66% Republican: 42% Independent: 66% Democrat: 90%
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
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Amanda Carpenter
24 days ago
Every single other governor should be saying the same.
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Jo Wolff
24 days ago
This was not a sample of academics.
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Barry Burden
25 days ago
The 2024
@electionstudies.bsky.social
has the share of "pure independents" in the US at its lowest level since 1952 (7%)
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Walter Olson
24 days ago
New Yorker profile of a small group of Los Angeles activists ("Peace Patrol") who videorecord ICE vehicles entering and exiting around Terminal Island at the city's port where the agency has a complex. /1
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The Volunteers Tracking ICE in Los Angeles
How a small group of activists dubbed the āPeace Patrolā stymie the deployment of federal agents in California.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-volunteers-tracking-ice-in-los-angeles
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Josh Huder
24 days ago
Mike Johnson is the elected leader of the House of Representatives but he wouldn't have the job nor can he pass significant bills without Trump's help swaying HFC-types. It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.
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Bill Kristol
24 days ago
"This is where weāve been headed since Jan. 6. The man who fomented an actual insurrection will invent a fantasy insurrection to justify overturning the rule of law & deploying the military against civilians. The thing about Rubicons is they canāt be uncrossed."
www.thebulwark.com/p/emergency-...
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Emergency Triad: The Chicago Rubicon and What Comes Next
We arenāt at the worst-case scenario yet. But if you squint, you can see it looming out there, just over the horizon.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/emergency-triad-the-chicago-rubicon-and-what-comes-next?r=1emko&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
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Brendan Nyhan
24 days ago
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