A governor’s race will test the durability of the gains Trump made in 2024, when the state’s majority-Hispanic townships all swung in his direction. Via @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...

I don't think people properly appreciate just how badly Trump/Johnson have had to screw this up to achieve these results.

NEW from @pewresearch.org: Two-thirds of Democrats say their own party makes them feel frustrated. By far the biggest source of this frustration is the feeling that their party isn't pushing back hard enough against the Trump administration. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

Teamed up with @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social to take a look at the NJ governor’s race & what its results could tell us about the durability of Trump’s 2024 gains/“realignments” www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...

atheist/agnostic Americans are now the biggest single voting bloc in the Democratic Party, and their leftist views may be alienating another of the party's traditional sources of strength ... new piece from me and Steve Ansolabehere @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/secular...

Election Day wouldn’t happen without the preparation, expertise, and commitment of state and local election officials. Because of them, voters can have their voices heard. Thank you, election officials. 

"Does moderation matter? In our current two-party system? Not really. Presidential vote explains 98% of House outcomes. Candidate quality has collapsed to statistical noise." open.substack.com/pub/leedrutm...

Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...

In exactly one week, it’ll be Election Day. Ideal time to get familiar with all that’s at stakes besides the handful of headline races: my guide has 185+ elections—from school boards and lawmakers to sheriffs and mayors—and why they matter. Bookmark it: we’ll be updating with results.

Really interesting work (and thoughts on experimental design)!

🎉🎉🎉 I was absolutely thrilled to spot a Black-throated Green Warbler flitting about Central Park's Reservoir. I hadn't had a good look at one all fall--until today! 🍁🍁🍁 #Warbler #CentralPark #birding

👇 It's important to keep pointing this out, even if our elected officials continue to fail to fulfill their oaths of office & put a stop to this now, because one day there will be a reckoning, & we want to document all the crimes fully & completely to make sure they never happen again.

Trump is in a snit with Canada so he just announced an extra 10% tariff on Canadian goods. I seem to remember how these tariffs were all part of some national emergency. His feelings are now a national emergency?

Imagine what would have happened if Biden or Obama sent masked goons into deep red neighborhoods in Texas or Florida and they started grabbing people off the street and teargassing anyone who objected

An embarrassingly obvious point, but... This. Is. Illegal. If anything like the rule of law were in force, Trump couldn't arbitrarily increase a tariff because he is annoyed. In important and increasing ways, the rule of law in the US no longer exists. www.cnn.com/2025/10/25/b...

This early voting chart by estimated party by L2 via the Virginia Public Access project shows Democrats outpacing Republicans in total early voting by 80K or 10 percentage points. We don't have a good baseline comparison, but this appears consistent with polling showing Democratic candidates leading

Top states for data centers: 1. Virginia (643) 2. Texas (395) 3. California (319) www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Test run for 2026. Here's what I wrote in the NY Times about the federal government potentially interfering with the 2026 elections and what we need to do about it. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/o...

If you see Federal officials interfering in your ability to freely vote in a private manner, document the issue and raise the problem to relevant legal authorities and public officials in your respective state and county.

I cannot tell what's more ridiculous: that President Trump got hopping mad at this, or that the Reagan Foundation wants to sue over it. Imagine devoting your career to preserving Reagan’s legacy and pitching a fit when someone quotes him

New AP-NORC poll: – 25% of Hispanic adults have a favorable view of Trump, down from 44% in January – It's Trump's lowest favorability with Hispanic voters since 2019. – "About two-thirds of Hispanic adults under age 45 and Hispanic men now view Trump unfavorably." apnews.com/article/hisp...

Nuclear reactors built or under construction since 2013 US: 2 China: 46

Love this experiment:

Major redistricting news: Virginia Dems could target 2-3 GOP House seats (though they could flip 2 anyway on the current map). Dems have far fewer opportunities to redraw maps for 2026 as Republicans try to re-gerrymander nationwide, so a new Virginia map in 2026 instead of 2028 would be a big deal

Trump just does what he wants. DOGE, ending USAID, ICE raids, national guard, and now this. Courts can slow it down but he's an act-first-and-never-apologize guy. What other things will he tear down?

Big lead for Prop 50 in a new CBS/YouGov poll: 62% yes, 38% no. www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

38% of Americans can't name anything they like about the Republican Party & 38% of Americans can't name anything they like about the Democratic Party. news.gallup.com/poll/696635/...

The 2020 election was free and fair, its result was legitimate, and this person’s conspiracy theories about it were universally thrown out of court because they were fabricated. Conservative and Liberal Americans treasure our constitutional system, and we reject authoritarian rule.

NEW Economist/YouGov Net favorability of Donald Trump [at the start of his second term | now] among U.S. adult citizens by age 18-29: +5 | -39 30-44: -6 | -14 45-64: +12 | -10 65+: -4 | -10 today.yougov.com/politics/art...

Net job approval for Donald Trump at the start of his second term | now among... White Americans +17 | +1 Hispanic Americans -5 | -42 Black Americans -31 | -74

Trump's redeployment of federal power is leading to an increase in (normally conservative) views among Democrats that the federal government has too much power & that agencies are ineffective, moving closer to Republican views. news.gallup.com/poll/696191/... news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...

If you can't do Guerrero, Raleigh's pretty good.

EXCLUSIVE: One Saturday afternoon in October, my phone lit up with a notification. I glanced down at the message. “Anna, Lindsey Halligan here,” it began. So began my text exchange with the woman who is prosecuting the president's perceived political enemies. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anna...

The government of Ontario paid for an anti-tariff ad starring Ronald Reagan during the #BlueJays-#Mariners game!

16 days left: hundreds of elections will be decided, and my guide walks you through 180+ that matter—and why. for the weekend crowd: take time to explore what's on the ballot, beyond NYC, Virginia, and Jersey. here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

newest Tufts public opinion lab blog features Rolando Ortega exploring how Latino attitudes differ across generations tufts-pol.medium.com/qu%C3%A9-est...

Justice Brett Kavanaugh: “If the officers learn that the individual they stopped is a U.S. citizen...they promptly let the individual go." The reality: Americans have been dragged, tackled, beaten, tased and shot by immigration agents. A must read from the very talented @nicolefoy.bsky.social:

Economist/YouGov Oct 10-13: President Trump Views on Donald Trump's temperament, likability, and honesty have become more positive in the past month but remain below levels when he took office in January today.yougov.com/politics/art...

The (a) mid-decade redistricting games and (b) twisted arguments about congressional districting, for decades and in this morning's Court arguments, make a strong case for proportional representation in the House.

What predicts which NYC Democrats backed Cuomo or Mamdani in the primary? I use March/April (green lines) & May/June (black lines) @today.yougov.com surveys to examine the attitudes that predict who backed Cuomo or Mamdani. The most predictive question for both? Attitudes on police spending.

I'd rather the next Dem president + Congress put into place a bunch of Court-curbing mechanisms *and* far more strenuous presidency-curbing mechanisms. I don't think left-Caesarism is the best response here.

"It wanted to signal strength. Instead, it’s revealing its weakness. The administration’s need to break the academy is forcing it to make a desperately risky gamble." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/o...

The percentage of Americans who say Trump has definitely or probably improperly used his office to punish those who say things he does not like, per new Pew Research Center survey: Overall: 66% Republican: 42% Independent: 66% Democrat: 90% www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Every single other governor should be saying the same.

This was not a sample of academics.

The 2024 @electionstudies.bsky.social has the share of "pure independents" in the US at its lowest level since 1952 (7%)

New Yorker profile of a small group of Los Angeles activists ("Peace Patrol") who videorecord ICE vehicles entering and exiting around Terminal Island at the city's port where the agency has a complex. /1

Mike Johnson is the elected leader of the House of Representatives but he wouldn't have the job nor can he pass significant bills without Trump's help swaying HFC-types. It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.

"This is where we’ve been headed since Jan. 6. The man who fomented an actual insurrection will invent a fantasy insurrection to justify overturning the rule of law & deploying the military against civilians. The thing about Rubicons is they can’t be uncrossed." www.thebulwark.com/p/emergency-...