Dante Scala
@graniteprof.bsky.social
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Political science professor, University of New Hampshire. Opinions my own.
pinned post!
Signed.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
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Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education
Speaking Out for Democracy and US Higher Education To add your name to this statement, go to https://bit.ly/DemocracyAndHigherEdSign We publicly affirm our commitment to the enterprise of higher educ...
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zoB6frOcE7Tx9Z2JeFjsXwZGCE07nIW0U2iBdr9m5js/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.gdc9ks2fapdr
about 1 year ago
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Jonathan Bernstein
7 days ago
Youch. By my count that's five new approval surveys out today - three were the worst for that pollster, two were tied for worst. (There's also a YouGov that's presumably part of a series but not sure which). As we used to say: Brutal, Juice.
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The Upshot
7 days ago
Republicans have built a small advantage from the gerrymandering clash so far, but Virginia voters could change that.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/u...
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Virginia Voting Today on Map That Could Hand 4 House Seats to Democrats
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/us/elections/virginia-redistricting-referendum-what-to-watch.html?unlocked_article_code=1.clA.Pytz.vRXugoZaSWJo&smid=url-share
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Jonathan Bernstein
14 days ago
Wrote today about Vance '28 - and why VPs do so well in presidential nomination politics despite looking so bad. At GP/BP. Read, share, subscribe.
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/vance-2028
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Vance 2028?
Vice Presidents are always underrated, but Vance's challenges may go beyond that.
https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/vance-2028
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Nicholas Grossman
16 days ago
In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.
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Walter Olson
26 days ago
My colleague
@foxmike90.bsky.social
has written a response to Trump's firing of Pam Bondi. Her 14-month tenure saw the departure of large numbers of qualified federal lawyers as she pursued the mission of turning DOJ "into a direct instrument of the White House" and settling political scores. /1
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The Failure of the Henchman Strategy: Pam Bondi and the Cost of Political Incursion
It is the responsibility of senators to rigorously scrutinize the next attorney general nominee, ensuring they confirm someone who possesses no history of prosecutorial misconduct and who pledges to p...
https://www.cato.org/blog/failure-henchman-strategy-pam-bondi-cost-political-incursion
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Simon Kuestenmacher
26 days ago
In two thirds of all US counties deaths are now outnumbering births. Source:
buff.ly/cWokiWP
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Andrew Rudalevige
27 days ago
In all seriousness... what did that achieve? what was the point of putting the president on TV, if he had nothing new to say? "Suck it up, it hasn't taken as long as Vietnam" is not as heartening as the White House seems to think.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy
27 days ago
Our latest poll out today:
www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/p...
Full toplines/crosstabs:
www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...
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Will Stancil
27 days ago
Trump has the highest disapproval of all time on inflation, higher than Biden, higher than Carter. Inflation is currently 2.4%. Look, I don't feel bad for Trump. But we are experiencing a complete breakdown of the political information system.
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Bill Scher
27 days ago
Imagine how horrible it must have felt to get intellectually humiliated by the Supreme Court while your boss, the President of the United States, is right behind you
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David H. Montgomery
27 days ago
No earthly pleasure more transcendent.
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Jonathan Bernstein
29 days ago
And Nate Silver's version has Trump under 40% approval for the first time; Silver's consistently been a bit higher, but it also shows an even bigger March slump. A week ago things looked okay for high floor, but no more.
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Josh Chafetz
29 days ago
Political science research on thermostatic politics suggests that the best strategy for the midterms is being not-Trump. This is *especially* true given Trump's abysmal approval ratings and the state of the economy.
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Jonathan Ladd
about 1 month ago
It's hard to imagine looking sadder on your campaign poster than John Fremont looked on his 1856 campaign poster.
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Michael Clemens
about 1 month ago
The best and brightest young people from around the world are getting the message: Reconsider investing your talents in the United States. Cumulative issuance of F-1 student visas by calendar month, down circa 32% as of September (latest available) Source:
travel.state.gov/content/trav...
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John Gramlich
about 1 month ago
How is the US military campaign in Iran going? Most Democrats (69%) say it's going not too or not at all well. Republicans are more divided: 21% say it's going not too or not at all well, 32% say somewhat well and 46% say very or extremely well.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
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Brian Schaffner
about 1 month ago
there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in
@goodauth.bsky.social
summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece:
goodauthority.org/news/long-st...
YouGov report:
yougov.com/en-us/articl...
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The long-standing Democratic advantage in party identification is gone
A new report shows how much the partisan landscape has shifted.
https://goodauthority.org/news/long-standing-democratic-advantage-in-party-identification-is-gone/
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Ariel Edwards-Levy
about 1 month ago
if you're not inherently excited for this event, please note that I recently subjected
@baseballot.bsky.social
and
@pbump.com
to an impromptu round of "name that pollster based on the crosstab formatting" and they got them all right
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Nick Field
about 1 month ago
Quinnipiac Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the situation with Iran? Approve 34% Disapprove 59%
poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
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Sahil Kapur
about 1 month ago
š Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trumpās approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%. Lower than Bidenās lowest rating. Far lower than Trumpās first-term lowest.
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Matt Glassman
about 2 months ago
A fair amount of confusion about the talking filibuster comes from nomenclature; it messes people up b/c (1) minorities filibuster; but (2) the talking filibuster is described as a *majority* tactic ("the GOP should use the talking filibuster.") Let's straighten this out. 1/
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Emily Guskin
about 2 months ago
Has public opinion on the US striking Iran shifted since the war started? Two polls tell us slightly different stories.
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Has public opinion on the US striking Iran shifted since the war started?
Nearly two-thirds of Americans say President Donald Trump has not clearly explained the goals of U.S. military involvement in Iran.
https://abcnews.com/Politics/public-opinion-us-striking-iran-shifted-war-started/story?id=131000940
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Brendan Nyhan
about 2 months ago
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Elizabeth N. Saunders
about 2 months ago
A depressing but interesting conversation with
@gregsargent.bsky.social
@newrepublic.com
on the miscalculation (noncalculcation?) the Trump administration made over the Strait of Hormuz. Thereās gonna be a Trump premium on oil for a while.
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Daniel Drezner
about 2 months ago
All wars create unexpected second and third-order effects. One of the appalling things about the Trump administration is that they donāt seem to have thought through the expected effects either.
open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...
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'Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming,' Says Blindfolded Administration
The Trump administration can't foresee straight.
https://open.substack.com/pub/danieldrezner/p/nobody-could-have-seen-this-coming?r=rjjdx&utm_medium=ios
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The Economist
about 2 months ago
There has been no large rally-round-the-flag effect since the Iran war began. Donald Trump has fared better with Republicans, however. And the divide within the party is striking
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Why MAGA backs Donald Trumpās warāfor now
If the conflict in Iran drags on, will his America First base stick with him?
https://econ.st/4rhgK5p
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Matt Grossmann
about 2 months ago
Predicting Congressional Election Results Presidential approval & ideological direction of public opinion, not economics or party conflict, predict election results. That looks good for Dems New
#ScienceOfPolitics
podcast/transcript with Carlos Algara
www.niskanencenter.org/what-predict...
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What predicts midterm election results? - Niskanen Center
The historical pattern suggests Democrats are on the way to big congressional gains.
https://www.niskanencenter.org/what-predicts-midterm-election-results/
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Jennifer N. Victor
about 2 months ago
Constitution schmonstitution
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The Downballot
about 2 months ago
We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.
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Elizabeth N. Saunders
about 2 months ago
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/
goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
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Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him?
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders arenāt reliable constraints on Trumpās foreign policy decisions.
https://goodauthority.org/news/trump-might-start-a-war-with-iran-can-anyone-stop-him/
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Ariel Edwards-Levy
about 2 months ago
New from us: Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...
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Jeff Singer
about 2 months ago
The 2026 primary season is here, and so is The Downballot's very first primary preview of the cycle! We have our big rundown of what to watch in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.
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Primary season kicks off on Tuesday in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas
We preview every major race in all three states, from the U.S. Senate down to district attorney
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/primary-season-kicks-off-on-tuesday
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Charles Ornstein
about 2 months ago
NEW: More evidence that those who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election are working with Trump administration officials to set the rules for the 2026 midterms.
@dougbockclark.bsky.social
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Trump Officials Attended a Summit of Election Deniers Who Want the President to Take Over the Midterms
The meetingās participants included Kurt Olsen, a White House lawyer charged with reinvestigating the 2020 election, and Heather Honey, the Department of Homeland Security official in charge of electi...
https://www.propublica.org/article/election-denier-summit-trump-midterms
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New Hampshire Bulletin
2 months ago
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, the stateās chief election official, said a virtual meeting he had with federal officials was āa routine meeting.ā From
@willskipworth.bsky.social
#NHPolitics
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NH Secretary of State Scanlan says meeting with FBI on 2026 elections was āroutineā ⢠New Hampshire Bulletin
New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, the stateās chief election official, said that a virtual meeting he had with federal officials was āa routine meeting.ā
https://newhampshirebulletin.com/2026/02/26/nh-secretary-of-state-scanlan-says-meeting-with-fbi-on-2026-elections-was-routine/
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Zander Furnas
2 months ago
a striking chart
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
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Scott Clement
2 months ago
Very interesting study. On the conclusion, I'll warn that low-effort mail-to-web surveys may not be the answer. In experimenting with these in the past, they can also produce poor estimates, particularly for Black voters. Incentives and/or live-caller surveys have been more effective
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William Adler
2 months ago
Mamdani, whatever else you can say, is an extremely effective politician
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Dave Weigel
2 months ago
More funny than annoying that I set aside a day and a half to cover TXSen GOP candidates - and they canceled their events to appear w Trump in the hope he'll maybe endorse one of them. Less driving for me! (But I like driving, that's where podcasts live)
www.semafor.com/article/02/2...
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Texas Republican Senate hopefuls scramble to spend the day with Trump
All three changed plans to make sure they could stand alongside the president whose primary endorsement has remained elusive.
https://www.semafor.com/article/02/26/2026/texas-republican-senate-hopefuls-scramble-to-spend-the-day-with-trump
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Maya Sen
2 months ago
This is consistent with what weāve found in our polling - term limits for Supreme Court justices are extremely popular and enjoy bipartisan popular suppprt Dare I say it? With the right kind of elite alignment, it could even be āamendment-levelā popular support (still unlikely)
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The Downballot
2 months ago
March truly comes in like a lion for elections, and
@taniel.bsky.social
has a must-read guide on the MANY key races to watch next month.
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The 75 Elections to Watch This March - Bolts
The 2026 midterms really are starting. Five states hold all of their primaries for federal and state offices in March, and voters there face high-profile choices. Theyāll decide which Democrat... Read...
https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/march-2026-elections-guide/
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Lee Drutman
2 months ago
My case for optimism ->
www.vox.com/politics/480...
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US democracy has repaired itself before. Hereās how we can do it again.
Every 60 years, America remakes itself. Weāre due.
https://www.vox.com/politics/480280/how-to-fix-us-democracy-lee-drutman?view_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJpZCI6ImNwc3IyM3h2VlAiLCJwIjoiL3BvbGl0aWNzLzQ4MDI4MC9ob3ctdG8tZml4LXVzLWRlbW9jcmFjeS1sZWUtZHJ1dG1hbiIsImV4cCI6MTc3MzMyNTg0MywiaWF0IjoxNzcyMTE2MjQzfQ.KyDG99RrfeZ3Os41GNfzc07YfD8I5x2AKejdM-t78gc&utm_medium=gift-link
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service
2 months ago
NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans havenāt closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day
#ncpol
ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-v...
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NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script
With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans havenāt closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day
https://ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-voting-continues-to-break
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Brian Finucane
2 months ago
āAre we going to war?ā Senate Majority Leader: āI donāt know the answer to that.ā The Article I Crisis, wearing a suit and tie.
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Conrad Hackett
2 months ago
Is there a revival of churchgoing among US young adults? According to Opt-in online polls: Yes Surveys using random samples of the population: No
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/01/23/has-there-been-a-christian-revival-among-young-adults-in-the-uk-recent-surveys-may-be-misleading/
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Walter Olson
2 months ago
Thanks reporter Jim Saksa for quoting me generously in this article.
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Taniel
2 months ago
NEW: We're there. The midterms really are starting. March has the year's 1st supreme court race. Primaries for Senate, AG, & legislature. Sheriff & DA races rocked by ICE. Special elections that may flip. Even a minimum wage measure! My guide of the *75* elections to watch in March:
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The 75 Elections to Watch This March - Bolts
The 2026 midterms really are starting. Five states hold all of their primaries for federal and state offices in March, and voters there face high-profile choices. Theyāll decide which Democrat... Read...
https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/march-2026-elections-guide/
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At a faculty meeting, all roads are the long way around.
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2 months ago
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Also, we knew who won that afternoon, and had to wait until the evening to watch the game on tape delay.
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2 months ago
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David Darmofal
2 months ago
I just watched this again. How Gen X grew up watching the Winter Olympics. The crappy video quality, the Cold War, the USSR. It's like a different world.
youtu.be/qYscemhnf88?...
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Final Minute of the "Miracle on Ice"
YouTube video by Ryan G
https://youtu.be/qYscemhnf88?si=8z2Yvh0slYTxS2_Z
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