Youch. By my count that's five new approval surveys out today - three were the worst for that pollster, two were tied for worst. (There's also a YouGov that's presumably part of a series but not sure which). As we used to say: Brutal, Juice.

Republicans have built a small advantage from the gerrymandering clash so far, but Virginia voters could change that. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/u...

Wrote today about Vance '28 - and why VPs do so well in presidential nomination politics despite looking so bad. At GP/BP. Read, share, subscribe. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/vance-2028

In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.

My colleague @foxmike90.bsky.social has written a response to Trump's firing of Pam Bondi. Her 14-month tenure saw the departure of large numbers of qualified federal lawyers as she pursued the mission of turning DOJ "into a direct instrument of the White House" and settling political scores. /1

In two thirds of all US counties deaths are now outnumbering births. Source: buff.ly/cWokiWP

In all seriousness... what did that achieve? what was the point of putting the president on TV, if he had nothing new to say? "Suck it up, it hasn't taken as long as Vietnam" is not as heartening as the White House seems to think.

Our latest poll out today: www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/p... Full toplines/crosstabs: www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...

Trump has the highest disapproval of all time on inflation, higher than Biden, higher than Carter. Inflation is currently 2.4%. Look, I don't feel bad for Trump. But we are experiencing a complete breakdown of the political information system.

Imagine how horrible it must have felt to get intellectually humiliated by the Supreme Court while your boss, the President of the United States, is right behind you

No earthly pleasure more transcendent.

And Nate Silver's version has Trump under 40% approval for the first time; Silver's consistently been a bit higher, but it also shows an even bigger March slump. A week ago things looked okay for high floor, but no more.

Political science research on thermostatic politics suggests that the best strategy for the midterms is being not-Trump. This is *especially* true given Trump's abysmal approval ratings and the state of the economy.

It's hard to imagine looking sadder on your campaign poster than John Fremont looked on his 1856 campaign poster.

The best and brightest young people from around the world are getting the message: Reconsider investing your talents in the United States. Cumulative issuance of F-1 student visas by calendar month, down circa 32% as of September (latest available) Source: travel.state.gov/content/trav...

How is the US military campaign in Iran going? Most Democrats (69%) say it's going not too or not at all well. Republicans are more divided: 21% say it's going not too or not at all well, 32% say somewhat well and 46% say very or extremely well. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

if you're not inherently excited for this event, please note that I recently subjected @baseballot.bsky.social and @pbump.com to an impromptu round of "name that pollster based on the crosstab formatting" and they got them all right

Quinnipiac Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the situation with Iran? Approve 34% Disapprove 59% poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

👀 Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%. Lower than Biden’s lowest rating. Far lower than Trump’s first-term lowest.

A fair amount of confusion about the talking filibuster comes from nomenclature; it messes people up b/c (1) minorities filibuster; but (2) the talking filibuster is described as a *majority* tactic ("the GOP should use the talking filibuster.") Let's straighten this out. 1/

Has public opinion on the US striking Iran shifted since the war started? Two polls tell us slightly different stories.

A depressing but interesting conversation with @gregsargent.bsky.social @newrepublic.com on the miscalculation (noncalculcation?) the Trump administration made over the Strait of Hormuz. There’s gonna be a Trump premium on oil for a while.

All wars create unexpected second and third-order effects. One of the appalling things about the Trump administration is that they don’t seem to have thought through the expected effects either. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

There has been no large rally-round-the-flag effect since the Iran war began. Donald Trump has fared better with Republicans, however. And the divide within the party is striking

Predicting Congressional Election Results Presidential approval & ideological direction of public opinion, not economics or party conflict, predict election results. That looks good for Dems New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Carlos Algara www.niskanencenter.org/what-predict...

Constitution schmonstitution

We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

New from us: Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...

The 2026 primary season is here, and so is The Downballot's very first primary preview of the cycle! We have our big rundown of what to watch in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.

NEW: More evidence that those who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election are working with Trump administration officials to set the rules for the 2026 midterms. @dougbockclark.bsky.social

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan, the state’s chief election official, said a virtual meeting he had with federal officials was “a routine meeting.” From @willskipworth.bsky.social #NHPolitics

a striking chart www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Very interesting study. On the conclusion, I'll warn that low-effort mail-to-web surveys may not be the answer. In experimenting with these in the past, they can also produce poor estimates, particularly for Black voters. Incentives and/or live-caller surveys have been more effective

Mamdani, whatever else you can say, is an extremely effective politician

More funny than annoying that I set aside a day and a half to cover TXSen GOP candidates - and they canceled their events to appear w Trump in the hope he'll maybe endorse one of them. Less driving for me! (But I like driving, that's where podcasts live) www.semafor.com/article/02/2...

This is consistent with what we’ve found in our polling - term limits for Supreme Court justices are extremely popular and enjoy bipartisan popular suppprt Dare I say it? With the right kind of elite alignment, it could even be “amendment-level” popular support (still unlikely)

March truly comes in like a lion for elections, and @taniel.bsky.social has a must-read guide on the MANY key races to watch next month.

My case for optimism -> www.vox.com/politics/480...

NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script With the end of early voting this Saturday at 3 PM, NC's primary turnout is holding, Republicans haven’t closed the gap, and the real test now shifts to Election Day #ncpol ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-early-v...

“Are we going to war?” Senate Majority Leader: “I don’t know the answer to that.” The Article I Crisis, wearing a suit and tie.

Is there a revival of churchgoing among US young adults? According to Opt-in online polls: Yes Surveys using random samples of the population: No https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/01/23/has-there-been-a-christian-revival-among-young-adults-in-the-uk-recent-surveys-may-be-misleading/

Thanks reporter Jim Saksa for quoting me generously in this article.

NEW: We're there. The midterms really are starting. March has the year's 1st supreme court race. Primaries for Senate, AG, & legislature. Sheriff & DA races rocked by ICE. Special elections that may flip. Even a minimum wage measure! My guide of the *75* elections to watch in March:

At a faculty meeting, all roads are the long way around.

Also, we knew who won that afternoon, and had to wait until the evening to watch the game on tape delay.

I just watched this again. How Gen X grew up watching the Winter Olympics. The crappy video quality, the Cold War, the USSR. It's like a different world. youtu.be/qYscemhnf88?...