"The pessimistic story is far darker. It’s about the raid being a test run for messing with election administrators and the counting of ballots in the midterm elections.... Now is the time for state and local governments, the courts, and the people to work against such potential election subversion"

Not a drill: "It’s not too early to plan against another attempt to overturn democratically conducted elections in the United States."

A vision of America projected to the rest of the world

Searching for the right metaphor for this insanity: OJ searching for the real killer? The Bigfoot hunter out in the woods?

Stop making me agree with Rand Paul. I don’t like it.

Trump's approval was 40.0 before Renee Good's killing. It's 39.1 today. People already have their minds made up about this guy. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

I'm sometimes accused of “political bias" for statements I make in my books, and I'll admit it's 100% true: I'm politically biased in favor of empirical reality and reasoning. When too many lack such a bias, things like this happen: www.cnn.com/2026/01/27/h... #dataViz #infographics #dataJournalism

Quite a statement by the Republican governor of Vermont

Need more collective action like this by leaders and institutions of all kinds

‘was already restrained’

Do better. Call your buddy George W. Bush and show up together in Minneapolis. Don’t just write statements. DO something with your megaphone.

Interesting results in the new NY Times Sienna College poll. Any new support for Republicans among nonwhite voters that appeared in 2024 has evaporated. But also, there is no college/non-college educational polarization among nonwhite voters. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/u...

Some of the many thousands of brave, normal people who are leading the Minnesota resistance -- along with, tragically, Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

The political socialization literature suggests that the present moment is likely to have enormous impact on the political views of young people for decades to come.

A huge decline in support for Trump among the young ... www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/u...

“Which is where our obligation to witness comes in. The murder of Alex Jeffrey Pretti was not a mistake, or a tragedy, or a misunderstanding. It was a choice.” open.substack.com/pub/thebulwa...

“The American people don’t want to live in this kind of police state. Senators should listen. And then do something about it.” www.ms.now/opinion/ice-...

The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.

One of the reasons I am less pessimistic about the End Of All Things in 🇺🇸 foreign policy & world politics than many of my peers is that the there soon will be a generation of 🇺🇸 voters & leaders whose core foundational beliefs are that fascism, isolationism, & mercantilism are No Good & Very Bad.

Why do I post about the Constitution and the rule of law? Not because I think these things are self-enforcing! But because it is our duty to live up to them. And one goal of the Trumpist movement is to make such bold assertions of power that we are disoriented and forget our rights and liberties.

We now know the 12 states that applied with the DNC to be early states in 2028. Many press accounts have focused on the regional aspect of the process, but that makes it all feel a bit too much like a March Madness bracket. It's more involved than that. I explain: www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

Yes, this. Might work (treaties are not a fast instrument, plus 2/3 is a huge number of senators to agree on anything in 2026). The material fact remains: the United States threatened a trade war and military force against its close ally and ignored the people of Greenland. Damage is very much done.

We knew immigration enforcement squads were doing this - smashing into homes without a proper judicial warrant, notwithstanding the standard understanding of the Fouth Amendment. What we didn’t know is that it’s a policy, and apparently dates back since May if not earlier. /1

First #ncpol mailer of the year hit my box today. 8 mentions of the Trump endorsement on a single flier. I think we know what Whatley’s message is for the #ncsen primary. Curious to see if the general election mailers take a different tack.

The Greenland crisis holds lessons for all countries. America’s friends need to prepare for a world in which they are alone and NATO is no more: econ.st/4pMUXSB

The Fed might seem on a roll. Today it drew support from SCOTUS; last week, from markets & key GOP senators. But the Fed is not out of the woods. New @goodauth.bsky.social post w/ Mark Spindel on why Fed remains on defense & vulnerable to POTUS efforts to steer it. goodauthority.org/news/the-fed...

“The foundations of American power are rooted in the rule of law at home and credible commitment abroad, the very things that Trump has attempted to dismantle,” write Daniel Drezner and @profsaunders.bsky.social.

I agree, Benson's the nearest comparator in recent NH history, also in terms of favorable/unfavorable. But all this begs the question. Can't beat somebody with nobody.

Minneapolis, today. Note how three agents holding the civilian down. Why spray? www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...

Happy Beethoven's birthday to all who celebrate.

Central Park remains blanketed with snow--the perfect setting for capturing the beauty of a Northern Cardinal! Looks like he's been doing a little foraging this morning. ❤️❤️❤️ #Cardinal #CentralPark #birding

Pew Research Center just released a big report on religiosity in America, finding little shift since 2020 across four big indicators of religious commitment in its high response-rate NPORS surveys. Worth a read -> www.pewresearch.org/religion/202...

"She can be heard screaming as agents attempt to handcuff her. 'I’m a U.S. citizen, please help me,' she shouted after agents forced her to the ground. 'This is unfair. Why are you doing this to me?'” Gift link: www.miamiherald.com/news/local/c...

This isn't just about writing — it's also a testament to the importance of all writers to have a good editor!

i strongly, strongly believe that good writing is downstream of clear thinking and a strong understanding of the subject matter at hand. without fail, tortured writing comes from writers who don’t know and can’t think clearly about anything.

I wrote this essay about pardons in a very different moment but it holds up imo www.lawfaremedia.org/article/dona...

Two things can be true: -Regulation and procedure are strangling government's ability to achieve its goals -The solution can't be constantly violating the law and the Constitution

Who directs spending: Congress or the president? There's long been a gap between what Congress appropriates & what agencies spend. presidents find ways to not spend money they don't request New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Kevin Angell www.niskanencenter.org/who-now-dire...

The gang that couldn't persecute straight, cont'd: federal judge dismisses criminal cases against former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James, ruling that Justice Department illegally appointed prosecutor who brought the charges at President Donald Trump’s urging. /5

"Democrats are much less religious than Republicans" is an axiom of American politics, but there's more going on beneath the surface. Among Democrats, religiousness varies greatly by race and ethnicity, as this chart shows. New from @pewresearch.org: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

So I would say in general when a headline like this happens things would not be going well

In Virginia and New Jersey, Dems made disproportionate gains with Hispanic and Asian voters But White working class has been pretty steady for GOP Dems can win back House with gains like they saw in NJ/VA But would need more movement with WWC to have a shot in Senate

I feel like Person of the Year should go to college student journalists

Lots of talk about the shift back among Gen Z men and Latino voters toward Democrats in this month's off-year elections. But the bigger story is Gen Z women: 8 in 10 broke for Dems. In a word, MAGA holds no appeal. See my latest using @prri.org data: prri.substack.com/p/maga-and-g...

Cole Hamels is the only serious candidate among the newcomers. Otherwise, Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones are the candidates to watch.

"This assault on higher education is best understood as a means of destroying a locus of political opposition."

New roundup from me at @cato.org on voting and elections, including: judge quashes Trump bid to require documentary proof of citizenship in federal voter registration form, Maine ballot measure fails, Supreme Court agrees to review Fifth Circuit ruling on ballot receipt, and more.

This was a fun opportunity to get granular about #NHPolitics!

The trend here is remarkable, but will just note that this is the epitome of an expressive responding question -- answering yes is a way to signal profound dissatisfaction, not really a declaration of intention to move.

So the history of this is that presidential approval bounces back quickly once shutdowns end. But no one has ever acted the way Trump has acted, and his policies taking effect are very unpopular. Also never been a shutdown during year one; this could just be honeymoon wearing off. Stay tuned!