I wrote something about sports betting, and about the varieties of gambling and their various social optimalities. open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

Luckily people in Toronto care more about hockey, and they just won that title in 1967.

Luckily people in Toronto care more about hockey, and they just won that title in 1967.

Baseball is the least exciting sport, except when it's the most exciting.

Don't forget to turn your clocks back in the middle of the 16th.

There's nothing more fun that a statistical analysis of a trick or treating session. From the deep (2011!) archives! open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p... And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi... We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...

My view on strategic shutdowns: bad policy, bad politics. open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

Well, this restaurant just opened in DC. OMFG.

Well, this restaurant just opened in DC. OMFG.

I wrote about pocket rescissions, PTA meetings, and the problem of treating plainly absurd actions as technical legalistic questions. open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...

Today has always been one of my sneaky favorite sports days: Little League World Series American Championship game, followed directly by the Travers from Saratoga. Great side-sports double.

P(A|B) = (P(B|A)*P(A))/P(B)

Obviously, we can't *know* how this will go but it's worth remembering that, for the HFC (and often others), this pseudo-drama *itself* is a necessary component of the side-payment in exchange for their vote, not something you could have avoided had you taken a different path.

I have such a soft spot for the poker pros---so many wonderful people I've crossed paths with over the years---and watching them get crushed financially a second time by a legislative provision in omnibus legislation (first time was UIGEA in '06) is really painful.

I would personally be very surprised if the House GOP didn't eat the Senate bill. You will get some kicking and screaming, and maybe some fighting over who gets to vote no, but I'd feel good laying 4-1 this passes by the weekend.

I love the minute by minute vote-a-rama floor drama over this or that, but if there’s just going to be a wrap amendment anyway, the only thing that matters is the off-floor negotiations over the substance of the wraparound.

I'm not a fan of just tossing Senate precedent/practice, but it's getting a little breathless on this topic. A friendly ruling from the chair that is backed by a majority on appeal *has* to be legitimate, because it's the basis of how American legislative assemblies work.

Spotted in Rayburn. Trying to picture the vibe at a casework celebration happy hour.

Hot take: POTUS swearing in public has little or no substantive importance for policy or the institution or anything else, and is strategically important only in that it will focus the press coverage and public awareness onto that statement, which is the point of swearing.

Holy crap. 96,347 words later, I have a complete first draft of my Oh Hell strategy guide/memoir.

The similarities between my takes in the article and @mattglassman312.bsky.social's suggest that @gracesegers.bsky.social has enormous patience because she basically heard the same thing twice and I took *many* minutes to make my points.

My daughter's frisbee team won the VA high school state title yesterday, and it is really wild watching your kid do something you know they will remember the rest of their life.

I cannot begin to explain how unusual it is for an agency head to reject the administration's budget request wholesale in public. This usually gets you fired. Honestly makes me wonder if the skinny budget is just straight bullshit.

What's a fair line on Trump suggesting between now and the Cup finals that we boot the Canadian teams out of the NHL? Or impose a foreign athlete tariff? That seems like a pretty logical step after this movie thing.

Trump’s total incoherence on every aspect of his own tariff policy really is unbelievable, even conditional on it being Trump. Nothing else he’s done is even remotely as dumb as this at a policy-level, and that’s saying something.

That sound you hear is Elise Stefanik throwing a chair through the wall of the Rayburn building.

So we have 3 daughters and all of them have birthdays this week, and yes thats wild but maybe not as wild as the fact that this year they line up exactly with games four, five, and six* of the Caps playoff series. Not ideal. *if necessary, please god not back à Centre Bell.

IMO, almost all "100 days" assessments of presidential *accomplishments* miss the mark. 1/

There's a recissions package coming to Congress from the administration. Let's talk about why Congress barely ever adopts these packages. 1/

Two (pretty obvious) points re: Trump and courts. First, as a pure political matter, it's *way* better for him to get cooked at SCOTUS across a bunch of issues: tariffs, AEA deportation, impoundment, Fed independence. He can rail against courts, and they'll have saved him from himself. 1/

Strong contender for inclusion in my "why I quit posting my writing to social media" Substack post, which is growing ever nearer.

Congress could push back with stronger oversight, but its increasingly centralized structure has weakened its oversight capacity, writes @mattglassman312.bsky.social. hypertext.niskanencenter.org/p/how-oversi...

Super excited that I got to write a piece in this bundle. So many people are thinking about Trump and executive power, but the central governing questions of our age may just be in the legislature.

Couldn't ask for smarter colleagues to appear alongside; all of these pieces are worth a read.

Just a reminder that Congress can handle tax cuts and trade and energy issues and border funding no sweat, but American foreign policy is inherently an executive job and will necessarily reflect the ability and character of the president, for better or worse.

Rep Stefanik, silently wondering when she will ever be allowed to go to the UN.

Just call me Nostradamus.

Just like the Senate, the House rules aren't magic. If you don't have a bare majority, there's no procedural trick that can save you. There's nothing you can do except go home and try again tomorrow. Bookmark this tweet.

That's an hour plus now on the previous (unrelated) vote. Since @mattglassman312.bsky.social doesn't seem to be around to explain it as he usually does...the time limits on House floor votes are minimums, and the majority party can leave the vote open as long as they want.

We live in a massive country with a huge amount of geographical and cultural diversity, but it still shocks me there are people here who are huge sports fans and barely know hockey exists.

The WH is killing the PMF program. A smaller but higher-quality bureaucracy should model on Singapore: attract top talent, pay them well, create a culture of excellence and prestige for public service. This is the opposite direction. t.co/sxw2zczC73

This is a fantastic podcast episode. No one is better than Josh at explaining this stuff in detail in a clear, calm manner.

If want listen to @mattglassman312.bsky.social and I discuss the politics and challenges of the 119th Congress, you can sign up for this one-time class with the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown! See link. gai.georgetown.edu/119th-congre...

This is awful. The Archivist position is non-partisan and Colleen ran the agency in that manner. Presidents have never removed the archivist simply because the admin changed, and the Archives will be worse off now that they will.

NEW Congress, Two Beers In. @mattglassman312.bsky.social and I discuss Congress's power of the purse, DOGE, norms, congressional and presidential power, among other things. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

40 minutes of me talking about everything from the English Civil War to what happens when your buddy disregards instructions and buys the wrong beer for the frat party. And how it relates to Trump, appropriations, personnel, and agency programs. overcast.fm/+ABG-oPtqPeU

This new @joshhuder.bsky.social slide for his talk on Approps politics is just perfect.