Read Danny’s thread up and down here for a summary of the RCP8.5 issue.

Can confirm: The present administration is destroying U.S. science. The U.S. will be a diminished country because of this. A great piece by @thorbenson.bsky.social Killing the golden goose madness.ghost.io/killing-the-...

Change from 4 weeks ago (hint: bad)

For a short, public-facing overview of implications for talking about climate change across political divides, @woods.stanford.edu has a helpful explainer here: woods.stanford.edu/news/how-talk-about-climate-change-across-political-divides

My partner is in the back left. Proud of him and thankful for all the scientists who took the time and made the effort to advocate for science funding. If you see this from home today, you can still call your members of Congress today or later this week. There are scripts here: agu.quorum.us/home/

tl;dr: NIH is running at about 60% of pre-Trump levels and NSF is running at about 20% of pre-Trump levels of funding-outlays (some directorates far below even that). Utterly catastrophic. An unforced disaster for U.S. society, and the world

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

📣 Calling all WRF/MPAS users! @ams-waf.bsky.social is hosting a webinar in a couple weeks about the ongoing transition from WRF to MPAS for regional modeling throughout the community. Please join to hear the perspectives from our fabulous panelists! Register here: ametsoc.org/WebinarWRFMPAS

The US is no longer classified a liberal democracy. The special section on the USA, (pp. 33-38) is required reading, especially if you are an elected legislator or member of the judiciary. Reversing the democracy decline requires resistance from legislative and judicial branches. Demand democracy.

Congress has appropriated the funds to NSF but OMB is delaying the release. When funds are released, NSF, which has lost almost 1/5 of its staff, will struggle to evaluate proposals. Since they have to award the funds, big projects with established PIs will benefit. This is how US science dies.

Sometimes I wonder what my motivation is at this stage in my career. And it's this. Making sure small-minded men die mad about my inclusion. And propping the door open for as many smart and kind people as I can.

On a busy day for science policy, it looks like oversight and operations of NCAR’s supercomputing center are transitioning to a third-party operator. www.nsf.gov/news/transit... Lean more about the costs of dismantling NCAR with this opinion from @carlonimbus.bsky.social.

5/9

How cold has this winter been so far? The first 2/3 of winter 2025-26 is the 7th warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S.

Scenes from a snowy run in Blacksburg this morning

Want to learn about a new composite parameter for forecasting QLCS tornadoes? Come to my #AMS2026 talk at 2:00 pm in 381A! You can also read the journal article about this work at: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Wow, I’ve been outside now, and we have almost 2 inches of sleet on top of the snow here in Blacksburg. Sleet has 2-1 or 3-1 ratio to liquid (rain). That’s a lot of wintry precipitation!

I noticed a lot of needles mixed in with the more classic snowflake (dendrite) in last night's snow here in Blacksburg. Model and observed soundings show a similar picture with a cold surface, temperatures mainly between 0 and -10°C within the cloud, and a lackluster dendritic growth zone.

Attention folks in the weather, climate, disaster, wildfire, and Earth science communities: NSF has just published a new "Dear Colleague" letter inviting feedback (by Mar 13) on the proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). www.nsf.gov/funding/...

Are you an undergraduate student interested in gaining research experience this summer? If so, please consider applying to the Research Experiences and Mentorship in Urban Systems (REMUS) program at UNC Charlotte! We are a multidisciplinary REU program that explores many facets of urban science!

From @AGU.org: Senators are working on legislation to save NCAR, but we need extra support for these 8 states. Your Senators in Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Texas, and Wyoming need to hear from you.

I've got thoughts.

WTAF?! Also, for the love of God, can we not refer to NCAR As a “climate lab?” It does a hell of a lot more than just climate.

The webpage for the agency responsible for disaster management in this country still lists as its director a guy who resigned a month ago, and shows 6 of the other 9 senior positions as vacant. This is emblematic of the situation at FEMA, and we better wake up about it. tinyurl.com/yc5d9uch

The @dtc-community.bsky.social just released a new call for visitor program proposals targeted at early-career scientists and grad students. The focus is on advancing hierarchical system development principles for NOAA’s modeling systems (which can include MPAS)! dtcenter.org/visitor-prog...

“The storm hit rural Jamaica hardest – people who are poorest, least protected, and historically marginalised. The same communities shaped by slavery, colonial extraction, and racialised policies are now on the frontline of climate disaster.” www.theguardian.com/news/2025/no...

Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks. Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM. Map source: World Bank

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Hurricane #Melissa Advisory 24: Melissa Now a Category 5 Hurricane. Destructive Winds and Storm Surge and Catastrophic Flooding Will Worsen On Jamaica Through the Day and Into Tonight. http://hurricanes.gov

This is something we cover in week 1-2 of atmospheric thermo by exploring soundings from the tropics, midlats and poles. The tropical tropopause is higher and colder than it is in other locations. And this is a pretty iconic example!

*** JOB OPPORTUNITY AT UNIV OF FLORIDA IN GIS ***

While I’m at the UCAR Member’s meeting, I’m reminding everyone of the internships, workshops, and other student opportunities that they have available! www.ucar.edu/exhibit/stud...

MS position for Fall 2026 available to study Hurricane Ecology w/ me at #UCF and with @jefferybcannon.bsky.social from @thejonesctr.bsky.social! Funded half time as a TA and half as an RA. See web for details: tinyurl.com/9pm33ttt Please RT and share with your bright undergrads!!

Here is a 4-day track summary of Hurricanes #Humberto and #Imelda, showcasing an example of the #Fujiwhara Effect. They approached and interacted with each other, coming within 465 miles, but did not complete an orbit around a common center or merge before moving back away from each other. [1/4]

Please share with anyone who cares about NSF support for graduate students and take 30 seconds to sign and leave a comment. The deadline for the 2025 Graduate Research Fellowship Program is about one month away and literally no one can apply. #NSFGRFP jasonjwilliamsny.github.io/grfp2025/

STUDENTS! VT Geography is recruiting GTAs for Fall 2026. Come work with me, studying tropical cyclones and their precipitation. Students with undergraduate research and/or Python programming experience are highly encourage to apply.

The tide gauge at Duck NC, in the northern Outer Banks, is predicted to experience major flooding from Hurricane #Erin during the Thursday evening high tide. This would be the fifth-highest water level since records began in 1999, 0.82' below the record set during Cat 2 Hurricane Isabel of 2003.

A large portion of the Atlantic coastline will see the risk for high surf and rip currents this week due to #Erin. 🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥 Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...

NEW: i spoke to nine (!) scientists across several disciplines whose work was cited in the new Department of Energy report that downplays the severity of climate change. all of them say their work was misrepresented, cherry picked, and/or lacked context —

Right then... A quick review of the DOE's new 'critical review' of climate science. Whether it's worth a formal community response - I'm still not sure, but here's my first thoughts /thread/

Proposed NOAA cuts would destroy the basic infrastructure for weather research–including hurricane and flash flood forecasting–and take decades to recover from. “It’s like blowing up a dam and trying to rebuild it by gluing the pieces back together. It won’t work. You have to start from scratch.”

We don't have a NWS app thanks to the lobbying of Accuweather.

Flood forecasting being cut: “Promising NOAA research-to-operations efforts that would actually help with some of the challenges I discuss above, including Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats, Warn-on-Forecast, and FLASH would be terminated under the current FY26 presidential budget.”

Predicting such storms is at the cutting edge of science right now, and the stakes are rising in a warming world in which they are intensifying. Yet this is precisely the kind of research that NOAA/NSF have funded in the U.S. over decades that is at imminent risk of disappearing.

The other day I posted a list of NOAA Research contributions to forecast operations at NHC. I decided to add a little flesh to that list with this Substack post. franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/hurricane-...

"With the proposed shuttering of AOML, HRD, and their sister cooperative institutes, we could lose all tools currently available to estimate and forecast hurricane intensity. It’s a seismic blow to the arsenal of tools forecasters rely on to confidently deliver timely and accurate predictions."

I sought comment from NOAA and the Department of Defense on this and received this reply today from NOAA's spokesperson. They suggest we use the surviving ATMS microwave that degrades significantly at the edges. You can see how much worse off we'd be with Erick last week if we only had ATMS.

A comparison of what we see from geostationary infrared imagery vs. what we get when passive microwave imagery like what SSMIS provides is available. This is Hurricane Otis in 2023 as it was gearing up for extremely rapid intensification prior to impacting Acapulco as a category 5 storm.