Further increases in confidence for an impactful winter storm are noted across the Carolinas with greater uncertainty still farther up the coast.

Take this storm seriously. Moderate to major impacts are expected from the Central US through to the Northeast through the weekend. - Hazardous to impossible driving conditions are expected. Avoid travel if at all possible. - Widespread closures and disruption to infrastructure may also occur.

I’d be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out. There’s still significant uncertainty with the amplitude & progression of both SW US + north stream troughs, which drives both the event duration & how far north heavy snow expands into the Northeast.

The National Weather Service is now hiring for both entry-level and seasoned meteorologist positions. Apply by January 29! The entry-level positions are available in: ▪️ Houston, TX ▪️ Ft. Worth, TX ▪️ Hastings, NE ▪️ Great Falls, MT ▪️ Marquette, MI Apply: www.usajobs.gov/job/854675700

Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...

Unseasonable warmth is forecast across a large portion of the Lower 48 this week. High temps will soar to 30-40 degrees above normal, with some areas as much as 50 degrees above normal. Dozens of daily temp records could be broken. How warm will it be where you live this week? Check weather.gov.

Wildfires can spread quickly — by the time one is nearby, you may not have much time. Have an evacuation plan, and prepare an emergency supply kit ahead of time. Listen to local officials for emergency information and any evacuation orders.

❄️ D.C.'s first measurable snow of the season covers the capital in a hush of flurries. Winter is making a return with cooler than normal temperatures in the forecast for the next several days. Stay up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov. Credit: Bob Hyatt, NWS

Persistent fog and low stratus clouds have been plaguing California's Central Valley for the last week.

December is the coldest month of the year for most areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Ocean.

11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1995096242884358356

Impressed with the resilience of #Senyar… looks like a coherent circulation may have made it across #Malaysia. Nice radar coverage showing the last 24h revolution as it crossed from the Malacca Strait ➡️ South China Sea. Imagery courtesy of @zoom.earth

Is your vehicle ready for the winter? Watch this brief video to know what needs to be in your emergency kit and how to winterize your vehicle. For more winter weather safety tips visit weather.gov/safety.

Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️

Here are the latest key messages for the current storm impacting the Great Lakes. Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov and find the latest storm summary here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

JUST IN: The 2025 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason ends on Nov. 30 with 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 4 intensified to be major hurricanes. Find our news release, images and wrapup video at: noaa.gov/news-release... @nws.noaa.gov

The National Hurricane Center has put together a 2025 Verification Preview. Covers a prelim view on seasonal track, intensity, & genesis 🌀forecasts. Also touching on rapid intensification forecasts & Melissa which was the most impactful storm of the year. URL: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Veri...

After many long months, I’m excited to announce: we’re hiring! GSL through CIRES is looking to hire a land-surface model developer. Come join us in developing the next generation of storm-scale NWP for NOAA & community! Closes 12/12, pls contact me w/ questions. jobs.colorado.edu/jobs/JobDeta...

What is poor practice during Hurricane season is also poor practice in Winter Season. Do not share deterministic models forecasts >5-7 days out. Snowfall maps are an especially poor choice of model graphic to share with much lead time. My 2️⃣🪙

A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz

Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range. Makes for some photogenic views!

That’s a lot of intense hurricanes over the past 5 years 😵‍💫 We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages. Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once. Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰

Seems like the #Aurora is already visible over a large chunk of the CONUS tonight thanks to the #CME's over the last few days from a couple of significant X-class solar flares.

I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area. Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp. Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx

Another way to put it -- in time it took to get 2️⃣ daily record lows at #KMIA, we set new record highs for more than a quarter of days in the calendar year b/w Nov 2014 to Nov 2025 (97/365 ~ 27% of all days). So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx

This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade! Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx

In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes. The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last. The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes. Why? It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.

Fascinating interaction of #wx scales near Lake Michigan tonight. A Lake Effect Snow #LES band streched N-to-S across the lake, but a potent vortmax dropped in just west, providing large-scale ascent & changing morphology of band into a mesolow, enhancing #snow over #Chicago & Indiana tonight. 🌨️

A strong cold front this weekend will put the "ber" in November as frigid air spills out across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This winter-like chill will flood across the eastern half of the country early next week, bringing the potential for record cold temperatures to the Gulf by Tuesday.

A couple of recent examples from WPAC #Typhoons that Google DeepMind has been too intense with. First #Kalmaegi & now #Fung-Wong. Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.

Undergraduate opportunity! 📣 The NSF SOARS program is open for applications! SOARS is an undergrad-grad bridge program focusing on promoting and supporting research, mentoring, and community. Learn more about eligibility and the app process: ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_C...

Here is a zoomed in radar version of 28 Oct showing #Melissa 's inner core evolution before #Jamaica landfall. Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC. Horrible for Jamaica 😞

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.

Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar. 2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after. A remarkable evolution 🌀

Incredible Sentinal-2 satellite imagery of #Melissa at peak intensity before landfall. In the cloud-free areas of the eye you can see the physical effect of the surface wind gradient (2nd image): chaotic whitecapped waves near center transition to extreme sea spray/linear streaking near the eyewall!

Given higher than usual confidence of rapid intensification (RI) from analyses of an exceptionally favorable environment & with the aid of newer hurricane models (HAFS) & Google DeepMind, NHC was able to skillfully predict Melissa's RI days in advance.

Tomer always makes the best visualizations, but this is up there with the best... an incredible overview of #Melissa's remarkable evolution over the past 5 days.

Re-upping this thread, but like a month ago, #Melissa peaked in what is thought as a less favorable intereseasonal base state: Convective MJO envelope in maritime continent w/ suppression over NATL. Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷‍♂️

As of 11 AM ET, Hurricane Melissa has moved offshore of northeastern Cuba and is moving toward the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Melissa will move through the SE Bahamas today and approach Bermuda tomorrow where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. hurricanes.gov

I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

This has probably already been posted here, but Melissa has displayed a classic mesovortex pattern that can be modeled in the simplest 2D atmospheric models ("nondivergent barotropic models"). Here's a comparison of this morning's VIS sat and Kossin and Schubert (2001) experiments.

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

Updated loop of the lightning ⬇️. With data from GLM, there is a parallax, so the lightning doesn’t line up directly with the satellite cloud tops, which is why it looks like it’s directly in the eye. I’ve documented dozens of tropical cyclones with the EEL signature. bsky.app/profile/cowe...

219-kt peak wind would be the highest wind value a dropsonde has ever recorded, ahead of 215-kt value in Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 & the 210 kt recorded just yesterday in #Hurricane #Melissa. Still needs to be validated… so this data is preliminary.

A 10am EDT update from the National Hurricane Center now puts Melissa's sustained winds at 185 mph. Full text: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...?