A horrific accident early Saturday morning left a car in the side of an NWS office and the office relying on the NWS service backup system. Service backup is important in situations like this - but also is being increasingly used due to NWS staffing and infrastructure issues. tinyurl.com/4txuyhbz

Love observing the local effects of terrain on the boundary layer fog in California. For instance, Check out the drainage into the San Luis Reservoir where low level flow is forced to curve anticyclonic into the local saddle point of the Coastal Range. Makes for some photogenic views!

That’s a lot of intense hurricanes over the past 5 years 😵‍💫 We added 4 more to the list this year, #Erin, #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

Still waiting for @bsky.app to build out functionality with direct messages. Namely, allow users to include images/videos in messages & ability to DM multiple users at once. Twitter's botched update on their platform for DMs should provide motivation to move here, but need similar functionality.⏰

Seems like the #Aurora is already visible over a large chunk of the CONUS tonight thanks to the #CME's over the last few days from a couple of significant X-class solar flares.

I love how the wake-free zone of stratocu nicely corresponds to the area of >50F dewpoints advected off the Florida Peninsula & adjacent Gulf coast area. Taking a while for the sfc fluxes to moisten boundary layer enough to reach convective temp. Plot via @burgwx.bsky.social's RTMA analysis. #FLwx

Another way to put it -- in time it took to get 2️⃣ daily record lows at #KMIA, we set new record highs for more than a quarter of days in the calendar year b/w Nov 2014 to Nov 2025 (97/365 ~ 27% of all days). So yes, a remarkable cold snap, but got to put in proper context of record tends. #FLwx

This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade! Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx

In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes. The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last. The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes. Why? It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.

Fascinating interaction of #wx scales near Lake Michigan tonight. A Lake Effect Snow #LES band streched N-to-S across the lake, but a potent vortmax dropped in just west, providing large-scale ascent & changing morphology of band into a mesolow, enhancing #snow over #Chicago & Indiana tonight. 🌨️

A strong cold front this weekend will put the "ber" in November as frigid air spills out across the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This winter-like chill will flood across the eastern half of the country early next week, bringing the potential for record cold temperatures to the Gulf by Tuesday.

A couple of recent examples from WPAC #Typhoons that Google DeepMind has been too intense with. First #Kalmaegi & now #Fung-Wong. Would be nice to look at TC structure DeepMind members depicted to see what went awry. Fung-Wong is intensifying, just much slower than the model forecasted.

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Here is a zoomed in radar version of 28 Oct showing #Melissa 's inner core evolution before #Jamaica landfall. Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC. Horrible for Jamaica 😞

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.

Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar. 2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after. A remarkable evolution 🌀

Incredible Sentinal-2 satellite imagery of #Melissa at peak intensity before landfall. In the cloud-free areas of the eye you can see the physical effect of the surface wind gradient (2nd image): chaotic whitecapped waves near center transition to extreme sea spray/linear streaking near the eyewall!

Given higher than usual confidence of rapid intensification (RI) from analyses of an exceptionally favorable environment & with the aid of newer hurricane models (HAFS) & Google DeepMind, NHC was able to skillfully predict Melissa's RI days in advance.

Tomer always makes the best visualizations, but this is up there with the best... an incredible overview of #Melissa's remarkable evolution over the past 5 days.

Re-upping this thread, but like a month ago, #Melissa peaked in what is thought as a less favorable intereseasonal base state: Convective MJO envelope in maritime continent w/ suppression over NATL. Recurring theme - NATL 2025 TC activity occurring out of phase with typical favorable MJO phases. 🤷‍♂️

As of 11 AM ET, Hurricane Melissa has moved offshore of northeastern Cuba and is moving toward the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Melissa will move through the SE Bahamas today and approach Bermuda tomorrow where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. hurricanes.gov

I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

This has probably already been posted here, but Melissa has displayed a classic mesovortex pattern that can be modeled in the simplest 2D atmospheric models ("nondivergent barotropic models"). Here's a comparison of this morning's VIS sat and Kossin and Schubert (2001) experiments.

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

Updated loop of the lightning ⬇️. With data from GLM, there is a parallax, so the lightning doesn’t line up directly with the satellite cloud tops, which is why it looks like it’s directly in the eye. I’ve documented dozens of tropical cyclones with the EEL signature. bsky.app/profile/cowe...

219-kt peak wind would be the highest wind value a dropsonde has ever recorded, ahead of 215-kt value in Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 & the 210 kt recorded just yesterday in #Hurricane #Melissa. Still needs to be validated… so this data is preliminary.

A 10am EDT update from the National Hurricane Center now puts Melissa's sustained winds at 185 mph. Full text: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...?

Hurricane #Melissa 9AM EDT Update: @53rdWRS find Melissa stronger as the northern eyewall is approaching the southern coast of Jamaica. For the latest visit http://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983158219230113934

#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb. You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!

Here is a 54h WV loop of #Melissa as it underwent rapid intensification from a 60 kt TS ➡️ 150 kt cat 5 #Hurricane. Pay attention to how "warm" eye becomes at the end of the loop which ends at 18 UTC 27 Oct. Color scale ends at -5C & eye temp on the last few frames was warmer than that 🤯

The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.

Just a follow up to say this did end up verifying: AT 5pm Oct 25th, #Melissa was at 16.6N 75.5W. By 11pm Oct 26th, #Melissa was at 16.3N 77.7W. Just enough S of due W motion to delay serious rainfall hazards in #Jamaica temporary, though onset of catastrophic rainfall impacts likely today.

27 Oct 11AM EDT: @NOAA_HurrHunter @53rdWRS find #Melissa Stronger. Catastrophic and life-threatening winds, flooding, and storm surge expected on Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday. Here are the latest Key Messages. https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982824355416449488

One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa. Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️

11am 25 Oct Key Messages for #Melissa: #Jamaica prep should be completed today. Melissa’s slow motion brings multi-day damaging winds+heavy rainfall, catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, damage, long-duration power communication outages,... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982123918707003653

11am EDT 23 Oct Key Messages for #Melissa: Melissa expected to intensify into a Major #Hurricane & the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of damaging winds + inland & coastal flooding continues to increase for #Jamaica. Latest at hurricanes.gov

As promised, here is the verifying period of what ended up being Tropical Storm #Melissa from #AL98. Yet another example of ECMWF failing to depict #TC genesis until the very last minute. 🤦🏻‍♂️

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa (formerly AL98), located over the Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980637739553866070

I usually don't post about a new feature before it's complete, but in the interest of timeliness with an uncertain path for invest 98L, I've been working on implementing a 360-member grand ensemble consisting of 9 ensemble suites (NWP + AI). Here is its latest projection for 98L:

Here are the 2pm EDT Key Messages for the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (#AL98). Likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. There remains significant track & intensity uncertainty for the system later this wee... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980337261297430909

8am EDT 20 Oct -- We continue to monitor a tropical wave (#AL98) in the eastern Caribbean which has a high chance (80% 🔴) of tropical cyclone development over the next few days, as it slows down & moves into the central Caribbean. Latest at... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980254407699628536

Another pre-genesis case, another case of the #ECMWF struggling in the tropics to due to cumulus scheme induced amplified gravity waves all over its domain. Like we did for pre #Jerry, let's check back in 2-3 days to see how this model solution performs with #AL98.

8am EDT 19 Oct - NHC is monitoring a tropical wave (#AL98) moving over the Windward Islands today. Heavy rainfall & gusty winds anticipated as it moves through, but it's fast motion is forecast to limit development over the next day or two. Th... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1979882031921115324

I don’t watch a ton of baseball, but that Shohei Ohtani guy seems to be pretty good at baseball.

A tale of two sides of the Atlantic basin. The W ATL looks like early winter as a potent trough has large scale cold air generating stratocumulus over still warm ocean. But the E ATL still looks like summer with a record anomalous 500 mb ridge keeping the cool air & shear away for now.

2 pm EDT - A tropical wave over the tropical central Atlantic could slowly develop when it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week. Visit http://hurricanes.gov for updates. https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1978875150562136487