Neat returns on Melbourne radar this evening following the Indian River. Not too sure exactly what's going on here but looks cool

Though still murky thanks to warm water off Japan the PDO is looking more positive than most times this decade. You can see the +PMM connect with warmth in the WPAC as well. This has been slowly headed east. El Nino is on the way and it should have more PDO support than 2023

January's WWBs have taken effect in the subsurface. The warm pool at the dateline is becoming stronger as another downwelling Kelvin Wave loads up. Will give us another push towards El Niño

I've added some new models to the lineup! The AI GFS and the Canadian suite (GEM/GEPS ensembles) are now available, you can see just about any solution from the major global models! Long time coming

A tale of two extremes in the CONUS today. Numerous and widespread daily/monthly record lows fell last night with the impressively cold airmass in the SE. At the same time, Western ridging means some areas there have broken daily temperature records. Very uneven pattern!

Once again, there is snow in Florida. A bit of moisture from the snowstorm in the Carolinas has made its way to the Florida panhandle, where it is cold enough to snow. Have seen numerous reports of snow out of Tallahassee. That's how you know this cold blast is the real deal!

As the coastal low develops, it will bring a very cold Arctic airmass south into Florida. This will lead to freezes in much of the state during the weekend in the state's biggest cold snap since 2010. < -10C at 850mb is about as low as it ever gets in Central Florida!

With the winter storm's squall line entering the area of CAD, a large portion of it has turned into sleet and freezing rain. You certainly don't see that every day!

I've added the HRRR model to my site as well, as the winter storm ramps up. Good tool to have when short-term changes dominate

The winter storm that has been talked about all week has begun producing widespread wintry precipitation over the Southern Plains. It will become far more expansive during the weekend and reach all the way to the East Coast. Stay safe and stay inside if you can during the storm!

I've added the AIFS model from ECMWF. A popular request! It's nice to have the capabilities to add all these new models now

With a low off Baja California, we'll see a strong jet streak draped across the southern US to begin the weekend, bringing tropical Pacific moisture into the country. At the same time we will have a strong Arctic high pressure bringing cold air into the south.

The eastern equatorial Pacific is warming rapidly as the subsurface warm pool begins to surface. With the current downwelling Kelvin Wave and continuing WWB activity, the Pacific looks to take solid steps toward the emergence El Nino in the coming weeks

Some snow in the Deep South today, even into the Florida panhandle as the frontal system passes by and causes another cold outbreak. Not nearly as impressive as the winter storm a year ago but always neat to see snow reaching this far south!

Big addition: I've added the HAFS models to the lineup! Hurricane models have been sorely missing for a while, but now you can get a closer look at any storm the models run on including parameters you don't see on global models like simulated microwave imagery!

On top of increasing shear, another factor leading to #Dudzai's weakening is its meandering. It's been over the same area (and strong) long enough to create a noticeable cold wake. This eliminates latent heat flux nearby and makes it difficult to produce convection or fight shear

With a powerful cold front coming through the country, we can see this on the hourly pressure changes from METAR stations. Very easy to see the rising pressure as the front passes! About to be very cold for a lot of people

Thanks in part to the very generous donations this year, cyclonicwx.com has been upgraded to a new server! It is far more powerful than the last. I have kicked off this upgrade with new true color satellite imagery! And there is way more on the way! Very excited to see what I can do this winter

With this system pulling to the east, the northerly flow behind is producing a lot of lake effect snow off Lakes Michigan and Huron. Getting to that time of year!

#FungWong has turned out to be a very large typhoon with quite the broad core. This means previous guidance suggestions of a very strong storm did not come to pass, but it also means a larger region impacted as it comes ashore. Stay safe if you are in the path!

#TD32W has become a large, sprawling tropical cyclone with lower shear and impressive upper divergence. Will be interesting to see the size of the inner core that forms from this. If on the smaller side, will lean towards stronger solutions. Something to keep an eye on this weekend in Luzon

#90W is trying to get itself together with an LLC in a broader area of rotation. Some decent upper divergence right now, but it is sheared. The environment will get even more divergent and shear should drop tomorrow. Some guidance has been quite aggressive, we'll see how it fares

As it was when it developed, #Melissa is once again sheared. Its MLC is becoming displaced from its LLC, and if you get far enough up, it's much harder to see a TC signature and it turns into a trough in the middle of the jet stream flow. Lots of neat stuff on TDR data!

I've added radar data from Taiwan to the lineup. Between this and JMA radar, there's nice coverage in this part of West Pacific to see typhoon structures!

#Melissa continues NE tonight, weakened again from land interaction with Cuba. There is some upper divergence which could cause some strengthening as it approaches Bermuda, but the disrupted structure means it won't be significant before shear increases and SST drops below 26C

#Melissa is much weaker as expected coming off of Jamaica. However, with some time over water and the improved satellite presentation, there will likely be increased winds from what recon is finding. Luckily for Cuba, Melissa will not be able to intensify as strongly as before due to the disruption

Insane dropsonde from #Melissa's southern eyewall. Stronger than the one yesterday morning, strongest I can remember seeing. Agrees with 160kt intensity from NHC

#Melissa has managed to continue strengthening over the night, and has gotten wind speeds up to 155kt and pressure of 892mb. About as low as it gets. Seems it will strengthen into landfall as well. I just pray everyone in the path has somewhere safe to be right now

#Melissa has impressive outflow and upper divergence beginning as it interacts with the oncoming upper trough. This may allow for another unfortunate burst of intensification (barring an EWRC) as it approaches Jamaica

And there we have it. #Melissa's WV eye temperature has broken -5°C, making it warmer than any other eye observed through geostationary water vapor imagery. Takes an upper echelon warm core for this

Also crazy subsidence inversion in #Melissa's eye. At 907mb, you get weird stuff like 30C at 775mb!

Also worth noting #Melissa's very warm eye on water vapor imagery. -7.5°C is even warmer than Erin from this August and reflects extreme subsidence (drying+warming) in the eye. About as strong as warm cores get in the Atlantic basin

#Melissa has continued strengthening overnight, to a pressure around 913-914mb, with winds having risen to about 145-150kt based on obs from this morning's recon. Surprisingly no sign of an ERC yet. Can only hope there is some weakening on the way soon, awful situation for Jamaica

As recon leaves, #Melissa's satellite presentation once again improves. Lots of new bursting around the eyewall and another cooling of the CDO. Look at those gravity waves going outwards! Suggests a strengthening storm but satellite trends haven't totally agreed with recon obs lately

#Melissa's satellite presentation has become quite impressive this afternoon, with a more symmetric, cold CDO, and a warming, drying eye. Suggests continued strengthening is occurring. Will be interesting to see just how much it's deepening from recon soon

So far it seems despite the eye clearing out #Melissa's intensification hasn't been explosive as thought. Could be some of the shear that has still not gone away is subtly disrupting it for now.

Recon is finding #Melissa notably stronger, at about 85kt with pressure having dropped all the way to 971mb. The wind field is much more coherent and symmetric, and there are double hot towers trying to surround the eye. Could see some impressive intensification rates from recon this evening

#Melissa has had several vortical hot towers appear wrap around its eyewall, with another active right now. Likely heralds the beginning of RI when these wrap more. Will certainly be interesting to see what recon finds. Seems tonight will be the long-predicted quick strengthening phase

#Melissa looks like it has managed to stack this morning and looks fairly healthy on satellite. Wind field is a little interesting though. Was west weighted earlier and now east weighted. Doesn't look like a RI phase right now but the structure is no longer in the way like yesterday

While #Melissa has begun to strengthen and has a well-defined LLC, its MLC is still quite far off to the ESE. Sign of the shear that hasn't quite let up. Will not see more rapid intensification until the tilt reduces

#Melissa may finally be getting itself together this afternoon. It has begun to produce higher winds and deepen, and the center is well embedded within the convection. Shear is decreasing so this may herald the anticipated strengthening.

Looking at this morning's recon, #Melissa looks to have moved or reformed further east. A little fly in the ointment is the dropsondes suggest a surface center quite a bit further south. Could still be quite tilted. Melissa has a lot of work to do when shear comes down

Recon found #Melissa has reformed north, but is still misaligned. The LLC is to the west, but the winds reverse as you ascend through the levels, showing the tilt quite well. P.S. you can create GIFs like this now from the TDR data! Sort of like an MRI of the storm

#Melissa isn't looking so good once again this afternoon as the LLC shears off. Hard to say what it looks like near the new convection. Luckily, TDR recon is on its way, and we'll get a good look at the structure and just how tilted it is.

I've added an extra feature in the recon page, data for an entire storm! Now every time recon goes into a (named) storm, all its data will be viewable, plus estimated minimum pressure from center dropsondes. Looks cool with stronger storms! Here's what it looks like for #Melissa:

The TDR from #Melissa shows just how decoupled it is. An area where the low-levels have solid southerlies (LLC to the west) has W/NW winds (MLC to the NE). The two centers are impressively far apart! Implies one may dissipate

#Melissa is presently being sheared by an incoming trough. This trough is why we are expecting a north drift, and is partly to blame for the high track uncertainty (this setup means very different steering with different intensities!)

Every year, people hype up NW Caribbean OHC. Sometimes there's even a nice anticyclone there! But usually no storm is around to take advantage of it. However, after #Melissa's continual shifts west, this time may be different.

#Melissa's LLC so far has not been seriously disrupted by the convection east of it. As the convection grows closer to it, it seems less likely we would see the more dramatic center relocations some of the models have had. Part of the reason we have been seeing west shifts

Recon found #Melissa's MLC in the blob of convection as expected, very far east of the decoupled LLC. If we see a center reformation this is where it would try to set up