Now a Category 4, #Gabrielle's satellite presentation continues to improve. Great time to watch the mesoscale loop as the sun goes down!

#Gabrielle has rapidly intensified during the night, clearing out an eye and becoming a major hurricane. Very nice outflow on the western side, showing the jet interaction beginning! This will help it keep intensifying before shear gets too high and the interaction becomes unfavorable

It's #Ragasa's turn to put on a show on visible imagery today. Just look at that truck tire eye! Got finished with quite a smooth ERC. It's starting to feel a little shear but not being majorly impacted yet. Will impact the Babuyan islands with its full force soon. Hopefully everyone there is safe!

#Gabrielle is getting going now after being ventilated by the ULL nearby, reducing some of the shear/dry air issues. Its pressure has fallen to 994mb, and recon found hurricane strength wind at flight level. Add in some wrapping convection on satellite, and it looks like it will be a hurricane soon

#Neoguri seriously intensified last night, and now has a great cleared out stadium effect eye. Great to look at on visible. Almost surely has to be a super typhoon now!

A well-organized storm in the Atlantic not named Erin?? #Gabrielle is fairly well put together today with recon going in and finding a relatively well aligned #Gabrielle with pressures having fallen to around 1000mb. Notable that the LLC is quite tight so it has potential to ramp up quick

#Ragasa is wrapping powerful convection around its eye. Not quite stable yet as usual for this step of development. A little subtle shear it seems but has the potential to be a pretty strong category 4 soon and stabilize the wrapping hot towers

The West Pacific has come alive with 2 active typhoons. Embedded in favorable conditions, both should intensify to 100kt+, having formed inner cores and clearing eyes. Areas from Northern Luzon to Taiwan will need to watch for a stronger #Ragasa while #Neoguri is not a major land threat for now

#Gabrielle is the platonic ideal of a tropical cyclone. Can't imagine how it could get any better looking

With game over for #Mario, the globe has no TCs active. Can't say I've seen something like this on September 13... allegedly the peak of the Northern Hemisphere TC season

Huge anticyclonic wavebreak present in the Atlantic right now. This is the sort of thing that would put the basin to sleep. Can't even get something in the subtropics really

Very nice eye with #Kiko tonight. Impressive how long it's maintaining its strength! The eye remains nice and warm but the CDO is warming as well... telling us about its future struggle with cooler SST. We'll see what recon finds soon

#91L is here, as a pretty noticeable kink in the ITCZ. It's recently gotten some convection, likely thanks to help from the upper troughing to the north. It has an interesting setup ahead, and depending on its track and the surrounding features it could stay weak and sheared or ramp up in the MDR.

After some time struggling to wrap convection, #Kiko has done so and continues to intensify. Trying to clear out its eye now. Going to be a major hurricane for a few days

As the MJO emerges towards the Maritime Continent and restrengthens, you can see it couple with the base state. Quick change from muddled to a well-defined wavenumber 1 pattern!

Quiet end to August in the global tropics, with only one active TC (tropical depression at that). We'll see EPAC development very soon, but interesting to see the Atlantic and Pacific alike relatively quiet at this time of year

Possibility for quite a powerful anticyclonic wavebreak event in the Atlantic starting next week. It'll be quite inconvenient for the wave we're watching, with a giant upper trough and dry air thrown south in front of it. On top of this it'll likely be drawn north. May make for a quieter peak season

Some good news for Vietnam. While it'll still pack a punch, #Kajiki has had a nasty dry air intrusion. This will keep it weaker than feared yesterday

Unsurprisingly, recon didn't find much of note in #99L. Moving into the Caribbean, it's just about out of time now. Was near TC status for a while but couldn't quite get there

#Kajiki is intensifying quickly now as it moves towards Vietnam. Eye is obvious on radar, and has cleared out on satellite too. Likely rapidly intensifying right now

#99L is looking pretty decent this evening with some evidence of banding. It has a more hostile road ahead of it with the Caribbean graveyard, but it may try to develop before reaching there. Will have recon tomorrow. Surprised chances for development are only 20% with this look

#Erin and its large wind field is certainly having an effect on nearby ocean temperatures. A couple buoys nearby have seen SSTs plunge as Erin causes upwelling in the previously unusually warm SW Atlantic

Well, #Erin certainly isn't northerly sheared anymore. With latitude gain and trough interaction, it's grown quite large, and despite reintensifying isn't that strong. It's very broad, with maximum winds far out. This means some impact for Bermuda/Outer Banks but bad mixing hopefully reduces these

After restrengthening again a little last night, #Erin is holding steady as a Category 4 with minimum pressure around 935mb. Shear is expected to increase soon, so this may be its second peak

After getting its new core, #Erin has become very large, with hurricane force flight level winds extending well outside the center. Means that even with Erin passing offshore some coastal locations may still experience high winds, especially as Erin continues to grow larger

"Forgot my phone"

#Erin has weakened last night as it continues its ERC. It's made a lot of progress, with recon finding the outer eyewall becoming dominant. Additionally, the larger eye is becoming apparent on IR. Once the inner eyewall dissipates we may see some intensification while shear is not prohibitively high

Recon finding a weaker #Erin this evening, with pressure up around 15mb and winds having come back down to Category 4 levels. No super strong signs that we're deep into an ERC still, so other possibility is Erin is feeling some shear

#Erin is in radar range of TJUA in Puerto Rico, giving us another way to track it. Given how high the beam is this far away, the 40dBZ returns in the eyewall are definitely impressive. May be another wobble to the west beginning as well

What a dropsonde in #Erin! It looks like this is a mesovortex than anything representative, but support for 130kt in the SW eyewall is jaw dropping given how weak the SW side had been yesterday

Just 24 hours ago, #Erin was just a 65kt Category 1 hurricane. Now, after explosive intensification, it's increased 75kt to 140kt! Cool to see the structure improve, then completely bomb out

Zoomed in meso sector giving us a great view of #Erin's eye. Quite a clear one too! Only a few clouds in the eye suggesting powerful subsidence which you'd expect in a tropical cyclone this powerful

#Erin down to 925mb now with latest center pass. Winds (so far) are still Category 4 territory, but with pressure like this winds will probably come up

One little impressive thing about #Erin is its WV eye temperature. This shows how strong the warm core is and how strong the eye subsidence is. This value has climbed steadily to -14C which tells us it's among the upper crust of TCs

Crazy eye from #Erin TDR. RMW is tiny - something like 10nm - around the pinhole eye. This structure is what's allowing for the explosive intensification of last night. Note the radar too. No indications that an outer eyewall has formed quite yet, so Erin has some time still

Recon confirms the drop to 935mb. Look at that eye subsidence!

Soon after the NOAA pass into #Erin, we had an AF plane go in finding pressures another 6mb lower. Waiting for recon but given the pressure now it's been dropping at a good 7-8mb/hr since we last had recon during the night. Very explosive RI

#Erin's SW eyewall looks like it's starting to participate with winds there at 2km passing 50kt. Much better than the beginning of the mission with an anemic SW side. Its structure has come a long way in the past few hours and it's no wonder why it's on the verge of RI

Nice full vortical hot tower wrap, with the eye now totally surrounded by deep convection. Looks like #Erin is off to the races

Seeing convection outlining #Erin's eye. Seems like a smaller one. Recon agrees finding 12nm eye. However with a weak SW side it has some work to do. But if it sticks with this structure, could see some faster intensification with volatility of small cores. Not totally there yet

Large vortical hot tower going around #Erin's eyewall as sunset nears, obscuring the eye. Definitely seems to be continuing to intensify. Recon has taken off from Barbados so we will see what things look like inside the storm soon

With the latitude gain recently, #Erin looks to go well north of the Leeward Islands. Some impacts in the form of squally weather (especially with N shear) are possible, but it has been clear this will thankfully miss as forecast. The next thing to watch are impacts later.

After some restructuring last night, #Erin has become a hurricane with a convection pattern suggestive of more strengthening today. We'll see what it can do before shear begins increasing. Will need to beef up SW side as well. Light winds there this pass

This pass #Erin's 700mb winds corresponded quite a bit more with the pressure minimum. Either getting less tilted, or the center is elongated (reforming), and they passed an axis of it

We got a few dropsondes into #Erin's center too. Pressure down to about 1000mb. Easy to see the tilt. Changing wind directions suggest an LLC tilted ENE or so of the MLC

First thoughts from the recon pass through #Erin: easy to see the tilt in the pressure field. 700mb center is around 16.8N but pressure minimum is a bit broad, around 17N. Has some work to do. Nonetheless, center is under convection, and FL winds suggest it's nearing hurricane strength despite shear

Recon is heading into #Erin as we speak. Will be good to know its exact position, how strong it is, and how much tilt there is. This data will be a big help for the forecasts

Anyone order shrimp? #Erin

In the Gulf, we have a trough (#98L) with some convection. We'll actually have some recon in this before Erin's recon! It should continue NW before making landfall somewhere around the US/Mexico border. Will not have much time to get together, but may bring some rain