Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.

While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.

I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.

Got my flu and Covid vaccines this morning. The primary side effect was nearly having a heart attack when I took my shirt off and looked in the mirror from across the room. CVS really really shouldn’t use red band-aids.

The Dolphins used to make me cry. Now they just make me roll my eyes.

It's happened again - another proposal for a new hurricane scale. I have some thoughts... franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...

With regard to the genesis forecasts of Invest 91L, and in particular NHC's probabilities that peaked at 90%, it's worth remembering that you'd *expect* 1 in 10 of all your 90%-ers to *not* develop. So not necessarily a bust. And unlike some, they didn't forecast a category 2 hurricane out of it.

Looking on the bright side, my Sunday afternoons for the rest of the year just opened up.

Pretty much the only things keeping me in Florida are the Hurricanes...the teams not the storms...and the Panthers.

This is a really nice piece by Scientific American's Andrea Thompson on the progress we've made improving hurricane forecasting. It's hard to understand why something that's had bipartisan support for decades, and is demonstratively cost-effective, is about to be thrown under the bus.

I’m not a radar expert, but I don’t think this cutback is going to help NOAA reach its claimed goal of “a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve”.

Yesterday I showed Google DeepMind errors for Erin. Thought I'd repeat the analysis for 2025 as a whole, and add the HCCA corrected consensus to the mix. Sample is mainly Erin, of course. GDMI has been impressive so far, especially through 72 h and for intensity. (EMXI not in live NHC FTP data.)

Not sure how long it's been there, but I just found the Sportsnet Canada broadcast of the SCF Game 6 on ESPN. Having watched the TNT version, uh, several times, I obviously needed to watch SN's version too. Spoiler alert - SN's angles and replays are better, and the Panthers still won the Cup.

Not at all surprised that his response to dismal economic news was to fire the head of the BLS. So I guess the next time the cone doesn't match where he wants it to go, he'll just fire the forecasters?

This is great news, assuming no one plays games defining "lifespan". It's a shame, though, that NOAA had to repeat their bogus claim that their data alone "ensure gold-standard weather forecasting". In a field where global cooperation is key, we need more than platitudes from the agency.

With Tom Lehrer's passing, I suppose this is a moment to share the story of the prank he played on the National Security Agency, and how it went undiscovered for nearly 60 years.

He was my hero since childbirth. variety.com/2025/music/o...

Maybe all those people who wanted to get rid of the cone graphic were right...

Extremely very not happy with Wordle today.

Just read hundreds of FB comments on one of the very few topics I happen to be an expert on. The remarkable thing to me was how confidently people could assert things that were just completely wrong. It was alternately amusing and despairing, but I think I’ve settled on despair.

"Aleksander Barkov, let's do it again!"

A nice summary of the series of unfortunate events surrounding NOAA this year. I'm not quoted in the story, but it's pretty good anyway. ;-)

This morning I was honored to join Representatives Wasserman Schultz, Clyburn, Frankel, and Cherfilus-McCormick to talk about the administration's proposed cuts to NOAA Research. My remarks start ~24:00, but lots of good stuff throughout and in the Q&A. Thank you for the chance to participate!

Reposting this because, well, it was one of my better forecasts...

The other day I posted a list of NOAA Research contributions to forecast operations at NHC. I decided to add a little flesh to that list with this Substack post. franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/hurricane-...

Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.

Mike covers the hurricane angle of NOAA’s disastrous budget proposal well. To what he’s written I would only add that once you close down the research labs, a different electoral result in ‘26 or ‘28 doesn’t get them back. It would take years or decades to recover.

For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...

Definitely appreciate the visibility Alan and others are giving the upcoming loss of the three SSMIS-equipped satellites for hurricane forecasting.

This one's for Panthers' fans: Apple Music just made available a user's all-time most played playlist, and it turns out my most frequently played song is...Sweetness. C'mon @nhlflapanthers.bsky.social , bring it back at least as the 3rd period entry song.

I felt bad about posting those SSMIS comments as an image, which probably caused some eyestrain. So for this sort of longer commentary...I started a Substack, of course! For easier and free reading, largely the same comments are available here: franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/thoughts-o...

I did a handful of interviews yesterday on the imminent shutdown of SSMIS data flow and the expected consequences for hurricane forecasting at NHC. I've tried to collect and polish up my thoughts on the topic, attached...

I used to hate dealing with systems like Andrea - the ones with marginal convection that could fade at any moment. And by the time you decided it had met the TC criteria it was already coming apart. Awkward to initiate for sure, but better than having to add it after the fact.

A nice USA Today piece on NOAA cuts by @dinahvp.bsky.social, with quotes from @wxmanms1.bsky.social, another former NOAA meteorologist and colleague. www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

There was a hockey game scheduled for tonight - but yeah, no need. Panthers in six. :)

The fundamental laws of sports superstition say I can now wear this again.

Ready to see this again Tuesday night.

I’d be perfectly fine with tonight being the last home game of the year.

Good luck or bad luck to wear last year’s Stanley Cup championship ring during this year’s Final games? Panthers’ fans only, please. ;-)

NOAA first claimed that despite job cuts NWS "will continue to fulfill our core mission", but then admits that 125 new hires are needed to "stabilize" the agency. Sounds like the first claim then was a lie, no? Then DoCSec falsely says NHC is fully staffed when they're down 2 in TSB and 1 in HSU.

Brownie knew we had a hurricane season...

First you fire the provisional staff, then shove the most experienced out the door, then you try shuffling existing staff into critical vacancies, then you do a new recruitment (for which existing staff will compete, creating new vacancies). Yup, DOGE efficiency at its finest.

Public officials who think they can make evacuation decisions based on the cone should read Brian’s excellent summary of it. A few additional points follow…

It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but yesterday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes.com I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead?

Kinda getting used to having my credit card charged for Stanley Cup Final tickets. This, I think I can live with.

Did Steve Goldstein just say the Panthers are 11-0-2 in Eastern Conference Final games over the past three years? C’mon - there are no loser points in the playoffs; an overtime loss is just a loss.

A former colleague used to like to quote Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". Alas, today's America is governed by Carville's Razor: "It's the malice, stupid!"

I've read the so-called full report of the study, and its "methodology" section is laughable. To paraphrase from Jerry Maguire, show me the data.