Same old story with the Canes. Now let’s see if the Panthers can salvage something of this so-far crappy day.

They keep trying that play. I don’t think it works as well as they think it works. (Done in Princess Bride accent.)

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

Haven’t watched the Dolphins in weeks. Why did I decide to put myself through this again tonight?

The sequence of NHC forecasts verifying at 28/18Z, roughly the time of landfall, is quite remarkable given the spread of the guidance and the track turns involved. Five days worth of OFCLs consistently focused on the western ⅔ of Jamaica, and with remarkable steadiness in timing. Nicely done NHC!

Nice piece from Nature on the GDM AI model and, sadly, a missed opportunity for research on what made Melissa special due to the government shutdown.

Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.

Not surprised by the we-need-a-cat-6 chatter. To me, adding a C6 is a marketing gimmick that would be counterproductive in helping people respond to approaching hurricane winds. But it does give me an excuse to link to something I previously posted about scales: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Idle thought having nothing to do with Melissa while listening to the in-arena host at the Panthers game…is “Coke Zero Sugar” Coke Zero with sugar, or a Coke with zero sugar? A hyphen in the brand name sure would help.

Differences between satellite and recon tend to put a smile on this old flyer’s face. Although more often than not, the winds catch up to the satellite signature.

How can someone recruit so well and manage a game so poorly?

Google DeepMind (GDMI) has done real well this year. When NHC today mentioned the GDM ensembles showing most reaching C5 intensity, I was curious how GDMI was doing for RI. Using the HFIP RI metric, turns out only so-so. HMON, HCCA, and OFCL are the standouts for RI so far. Sample still small.

To paraphrase Gary Bettman, while it may be difficult to give Legacy ticket holders a Stanley Cup ring once, to do it twice in a row is almost impossible. Grateful that the Panthers really know how to take care of their most loyal fans. (But they still desperately need help at C4 and RD3.)

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

I'm okay with the Penn State thing - haven't been a fan since "intercepted Giftopoulos". All I ask is for a cut of that buyout check.

I can't replace what the administration will withhold, but I'm proud of my alma mater and will increase my annual donation as best I can. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...

I don't suppose we original season ticket holders are getting another one of these...

While there's a break in the action I thought I'd update the guidance verification for the season (alas, with EMXI not included). Google DeepMind maintaining its edge with track and competitive with the better models for intensity. HMON also having a fine year.

Really tired of hearing all the complaints about how I can’t win the big one.

Waiting for news on Barkov's surgery and timeline is the first time in months I've wished I still had an X account.

While we wait for Imelda's shoe to drop, here's how the Google Deepmind (GDMI) has done this year against the regular guidance (apart from EMXI, which isn't in the public decks). For track, GDMI is a bit ahead of everything else, while for intensity it's in the middle of the pack.

I've come to appreciate the way Alan sees the big picture and communicates it so efficiently and clearly, whether he's talking about general weather, tropical cyclones, or budget issues. I can't recommend his newsletter more highly for anyone with a stake in NOAA or an interest in weather.

Got my flu and Covid vaccines this morning. The primary side effect was nearly having a heart attack when I took my shirt off and looked in the mirror from across the room. CVS really really shouldn’t use red band-aids.

The Dolphins used to make me cry. Now they just make me roll my eyes.

It's happened again - another proposal for a new hurricane scale. I have some thoughts... franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/please-no-...

With regard to the genesis forecasts of Invest 91L, and in particular NHC's probabilities that peaked at 90%, it's worth remembering that you'd *expect* 1 in 10 of all your 90%-ers to *not* develop. So not necessarily a bust. And unlike some, they didn't forecast a category 2 hurricane out of it.

Looking on the bright side, my Sunday afternoons for the rest of the year just opened up.

Pretty much the only things keeping me in Florida are the Hurricanes...the teams not the storms...and the Panthers.

This is a really nice piece by Scientific American's Andrea Thompson on the progress we've made improving hurricane forecasting. It's hard to understand why something that's had bipartisan support for decades, and is demonstratively cost-effective, is about to be thrown under the bus.

I’m not a radar expert, but I don’t think this cutback is going to help NOAA reach its claimed goal of “a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve”.

Yesterday I showed Google DeepMind errors for Erin. Thought I'd repeat the analysis for 2025 as a whole, and add the HCCA corrected consensus to the mix. Sample is mainly Erin, of course. GDMI has been impressive so far, especially through 72 h and for intensity. (EMXI not in live NHC FTP data.)

Not sure how long it's been there, but I just found the Sportsnet Canada broadcast of the SCF Game 6 on ESPN. Having watched the TNT version, uh, several times, I obviously needed to watch SN's version too. Spoiler alert - SN's angles and replays are better, and the Panthers still won the Cup.

Not at all surprised that his response to dismal economic news was to fire the head of the BLS. So I guess the next time the cone doesn't match where he wants it to go, he'll just fire the forecasters?

This is great news, assuming no one plays games defining "lifespan". It's a shame, though, that NOAA had to repeat their bogus claim that their data alone "ensure gold-standard weather forecasting". In a field where global cooperation is key, we need more than platitudes from the agency.

With Tom Lehrer's passing, I suppose this is a moment to share the story of the prank he played on the National Security Agency, and how it went undiscovered for nearly 60 years.

He was my hero since childbirth. variety.com/2025/music/o...

Maybe all those people who wanted to get rid of the cone graphic were right...

Extremely very not happy with Wordle today.

Just read hundreds of FB comments on one of the very few topics I happen to be an expert on. The remarkable thing to me was how confidently people could assert things that were just completely wrong. It was alternately amusing and despairing, but I think I’ve settled on despair.

"Aleksander Barkov, let's do it again!"

A nice summary of the series of unfortunate events surrounding NOAA this year. I'm not quoted in the story, but it's pretty good anyway. ;-)

This morning I was honored to join Representatives Wasserman Schultz, Clyburn, Frankel, and Cherfilus-McCormick to talk about the administration's proposed cuts to NOAA Research. My remarks start ~24:00, but lots of good stuff throughout and in the Q&A. Thank you for the chance to participate!

Reposting this because, well, it was one of my better forecasts...

The other day I posted a list of NOAA Research contributions to forecast operations at NHC. I decided to add a little flesh to that list with this Substack post. franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/hurricane-...

Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.

Mike covers the hurricane angle of NOAA’s disastrous budget proposal well. To what he’s written I would only add that once you close down the research labs, a different electoral result in ‘26 or ‘28 doesn’t get them back. It would take years or decades to recover.

For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...

Definitely appreciate the visibility Alan and others are giving the upcoming loss of the three SSMIS-equipped satellites for hurricane forecasting.

This one's for Panthers' fans: Apple Music just made available a user's all-time most played playlist, and it turns out my most frequently played song is...Sweetness. C'mon @nhlflapanthers.bsky.social , bring it back at least as the 3rd period entry song.

I felt bad about posting those SSMIS comments as an image, which probably caused some eyestrain. So for this sort of longer commentary...I started a Substack, of course! For easier and free reading, largely the same comments are available here: franklinjamesl.substack.com/p/thoughts-o...