Waiting on a dropsonde to confirm, but Melissa is most certainly below 900 hPa right now. Tragically we are about to witness the 2nd or 1st deepest Atlantic hurricane landfall by min MSLP on record in Jamaica.

The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is exactly the storm I'd compare Melissa to. It was the only other time I've seen the Dvorak scale violated above 8.0, and the only other time I've seen a complete ring of -80°F cloud tops (shown here in pink).

CI# up to 8.2 = 176kt / 882mb (satellite estimates put Melissa at Wilma levels)

*** JOB OPPORTUNITY AT UNIV OF FLORIDA IN GIS ***

oh no

Looks like an academic freedom catastrophe from beginning to end: because of (real or perceived) pressure from the state, Tulane’s leadership barred a scientist from talking about her research apnews.com/article/canc...

I have posted a lot recently about my worries for the NWS. However, I am also increasingly worried that the threat to NWS is distracting from the even greater threat to the rest of NOAA. Tonight I wrote about the broader agency I am so proud to have been a part of. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

What they are doing is aggressively accusing everyone else of insurrection in order to cover up and make everyone forget the actual insurrection & attempted coup that Trump orchestrated.

It would be a nice day to have lunch and then go sky watching in/near Great Bend, KS, if I were out that direction...which I am not. I am in FL trying to get our new robot lawnmower to stop going in circles & getting stuck. Also, I hope to hear a thunderous roar from OKC this afternoon.

🎉PhD student Michelle Ruiz was selected for the Disaster Research Center’s CHEER summer research program that will take place in North Carolina www.drc.udel.edu/2025-summer-...

Congratulations Marinna and Michael on graduation! And congrats Stephen, too!

I have enjoyed learning via Duolingo for over a year now, but recently have missed several days in a row due to being quite busy. The aggressive, weird tone of the Duolingo reminder emails do not make me want to resume lessons. They make me want to delete the app & cancel my subscription.

Or, consider the experimental evidence. Scholars have found (over and over again) that, compared to "regular" people, those with high levels of wealth and income are more likely to lie, cheat, and steal. And they're also more likely to say that greed is good. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com “Trump is engaging the full power of the presidency to settle scores,” our columnist Maureen Dowd writes. “The White House was not meant for petty tyrants on revenge tours. In the biggest job in the world, Trump seems like a very small man.”

Still finding quarter sized hailstones on the ground 45 minutes after...

Pretty impressive hailstorm in NW Gainesville in the past 15 minutes, a lot of dime and nickel sized, a few quarters

Frequent cloud to ground lightning in GNV now, could get a little rough next few minutes in our area.

This would kill all weather model development - RRFS, HAFS, and WoFS - in NOAA. These are activities that the private sector can’t support; they leverage these models to train & benchmark their own. I wish the headline didn’t just focus on climate as it limits the audience who will listen.

The Climate Risk and Storm Hazards (CRASH) Lab led by Dr. Katy Serafin and Dr. @scatterazure.bsky.social focuses on risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation for weather and climate hazards and environmental change geog.ufl.edu/geography-la...

*Watches as tornadoes and floods devastate towns in the mid-South.* Yeah, this seems like a totally great idea that won't lead to bigger disasters losses down the road at all.

68,845,865. That's how many individuals in the United States speak a language other than English at home. Everyone deserves a chance to stay safe during disasters, and I will never stop advocating for that. Thinking of all the communities that are going to be affected by this change.

Yet another move in the wrong direction.

🧪⚒️ Oh no, this is bad. Really really bad. M7.7 earthquake in Mynamar. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

I spoke with the Washington Post about why the Trump administration is so focused on US history: because authoritarian regimes rewrite history to legitimize their projects and normalize their chaotic, violent governance. Gift link: wapo.st/4cdjRFQ

This segment from @maryannefranks.bsky.social is an incredibly tight argument that captures the breadth of the Trump assault on free speech perfectly and in less than a minute. Spread it far and wide.

He's describing his boss to a T.

London-Heathrow will be closed for ALL of Friday due to a “significant power outage” caused by a fire in an electrical substation. There are currently 120 aircraft in the air that will be diverting to alternate airports or returning to their origins. www.flightradar24.com/airport/lhr

I don't watch much college hoops these days. But one thing I learned as a teenage hoops junkie in the 90s still appears to be true, judging by tonight's results... When it comes to March Madness: Missouri Valley > Missouri Tigers Every time.

Yep, the right side of a landfalling hurricane is the dangerous side, particularly for an unusually fast-moving hurricane like Helene (31 mph forward speed). A map of the location of the 248 deaths from NHC’s report issued today: www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL0...

❗❗ The Trump Administration has issued an executive order (and accompanying fact sheet, see first comment) on 'state and local preparedness' that lays out priorities for FEMA and disaster reform. Lots to unpack... www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Can Ukraine stop Russia from allying with North Korea, Iran, and China? If not, then Russia cannot forbid Ukraine from allying with whom it chooses. That is a basic element of sovereignty.

Confirmed, long-track tornado moving across Izard County in northern Arkansas right now. Thanks to all those in NOAA-NWS, TV mets, and local/state emergency management working to keep up with this severe weather outbreak.

90-100 mph winds and possible tornado about to cross the Mississippi River and hit Alton, Illinois

Confirmed tornado getting very close to the NWS St. Louis Forecast Office

Confirmed tornado via spotters & radar debris signature, serious situation in southern Missouri, heading in general direction of West Plains.

Currently, 7 of the top 10 cities with the worst Air Quality Index (AQI) in the world are in Oklahoma #okwx

Watching live stream from CBS News 6 out of Tulsa, and Mannford, OK has active building fires within the city limits. About 3500 population in Mannford, 20 miles west of downtown Tulsa. Terrible situation. Many other fires causing damage across OK.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center Level 4 of 5 - Moderate risk - area has been expanded south as confidence has increased in nighttime supercell tornado risk extending into western TN and northern/central MS.

Wildfire evacuation orders in southeast Norman. 😬

Severe weather outlook sequence for tomorrow's (March 15, 2025) tornado/severe weather outbreak. The potential for severe weather was first mentioned in the outlook text discussion starting 8 days in advance, with the area being delineated in the outlook 7 days in advance.

A high risk (level 5/5) has been defined for parts of AL and MS for “round two” tomorrow afternoon/night. A new video briefing will be up shortly.

Saturday will be the real deal across the Deep South. A rare 'high risk' for severe weather is in effect. The SPC reserves a high risk like this for days they're confident in a tornado outbreak. Please ensure emergency alerts are ENABLED on your phone. Have multiple ways to receive severe warnings.

Heads up: over on Facebook NWS SPC will be hosting a Facebook Live at 2pm CT.

Evacuation ordered for small town of Leedey, OK with grassfire approaching from the SW...

NWS Storm Prediction Center key messages for the severe weather outbreaks today (3/14) and tomorrow (3/15).

Second Australis expedition led by Antonio Alcami visited 27 sites at the Antarctic Peninsula. 188 of 846 tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza, from 9 bird and 4 seal species. Conclusion: The virus has increased its host range and geographic range. www.science.org/content/arti...

They will claim that if there is no data, there is no inequality.

this is the 4th-largest 'hatched' area on day 5 since we started running the machine learning probabilities in late 2020. (hatched = at least 10% probability of significant severe weather) Multi-day severe outbreak lining up for Friday-Saturday. Maps: schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/