Tomorrow's elevated fire weather concern spans the entire state of Arizona and almost all of Utah, with coverage of the next risk tier ("critical") not much less for Utah... That's a big area. 🫠

Extreme fire weather danger (level 3 of 3) warned in SW Utah, NW Arizona and SE Nevada on Friday, per @nws.noaa.gov. It’s the highest fire danger anywhere in Utah in five years.

Also re: heat stroke. I just learned this recently: your survival rate is determined by how fast you cool a body down. It's that simple. If you're a coach and a player passes out and you're not sure why but it's hot outside cool that player down. Do not wait for EMS (call them though)

This is a devastating piece on how awful it is to die of heat stroke. Share it with the air conditioning skeptics you know. I would LOVE to see someone with actual medical knowledge - so, not me - do a brutal piece like this from the perspective of an elderly disabled person dying without AC.

There is only so much one person can do; these days, it never feels anywhere close to enough. I know I shouldn't feel guilt over having human limitations, and yet, here we are again!

Q&A with NOAA El Niño expert Michelle L'Heureux Features June 23, 2026 Why she's leery of the term 'super El Niño,' what could still derail the strength of the current event, and why NOAA has adopted a new approach to tracking El Niño and La Niña. www.climate.us/news-feature...

PAGER is computed for single events, so each of the PAGER Red alerts was computed separately. Alerts only consider ground shaking hazards—secondary hazards not included in fatality and economic estimates.

More than 4 million people may have experienced very strong, severe, or violent shaking. Causalities and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Back-to-back powerful earthquakes have hammered Venezuela, collapsing buildings in the capital of Caracas. The U.S.

Big and very shallow = very, very bad.

Ok you guys. Here’s the deal. The M7.1 in Venezuela was upgraded to a M7.2. AND it was followed shortly by a M7.5. Not good.

Satellite imagery shows multiple large & fast-spreading wildfires in UT, NV, AZ, NM, & CO--including a large pyrocumulonimbus plume from #CottonwoodFire in UT. This is a concerning look heading into a 5+ day period of adverse fire weather conditions amid severe -extreme drought.

We have a new entry in the climate dictionary under “irony”

Hi everyone! We recently decided to re-open the AMS WAF/NWP Student Travel Award applications to award the remaining two grants we have left for supporting travel to the 2026 AMS Joint Summit (with increased award amounts). Please share far and wide, and get application materials to us by July 6!

7-day running means of daily ENSO longitude index (ELI) values from NOAA's OISST for 1997, 2015, 2023, and 2026 (so far). ELI approximates the longitude of the rising branch of the Pacific Walker circulation: higher values are farther east (more El Niño), lower values farther west (more La Niña).

Archaeologists: D.C. Capitol May Have Once Been Used For Legislating

7-day running means of daily ENSO longitude index (ELI) values from NOAA's OISST for 1997, 2015, 2023, and 2026 (so far). ELI approximates the longitude of the rising branch of the Pacific Walker circulation: higher values are farther east (more El Niño), lower values farther west (more La Niña).

Fire putting off a huge smoke plume near Sedona. Evacuations from Oak Creek Canyon all the way up to the west side of Flagstaff share.watchduty.org/i/103670?ts=...

🚨 Help us spread the word! @rshivpriyam.bsky.social and I are hiring a postdoc to work on understanding the drivers of current trends in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and what they mean for future climate. DMs open for questions.

Cameron Hamilton really, really, really, should not be confirmed as FEMA administrator. disasterology.substack.com/p/disasterol...

Awful situation in Avoyelles Parish. 24-28” of rain in 12 hours estimated. Catastrophic flooding ongoing.

I know I have been saying "absolutely insane" a lot this morning but a measured rainfall report of 19.74" in 6 hours is "absolutely insane." Along with the flash flooding and severe weather, I also talked about the administration's decision to not dismantle NSF ocean observing. tinyurl.com/mu3jrpcz

Congressional pushback has apparently worked to pause the NSF from dismantling the Ocean Observatories Initiative. Fascinating that this didn't work re NSF's plans to dismantle NCAR. Perhaps because the ocean constituency in Congress is larger & more powerful & more bipartisan? 🧪

At the end of the term I asked my college creative wriing students to submit anonymous thoughts on AI. No real surprises: Mood ranges from resignation to despair, capitulation from embittered erosion of standards to total, feelings of betrayal from deep to furious. 1/

Where you'll see a rare bird. Thanks to @ryanfm.bsky.social's newsletter for teaching me about the Cabanis's ground-sparrow that lives behind the walmart

Meet Crumb, Button, and Clover. A friend in the Bay Area found them behind a gas station. Unfortunately, she isn't able to keep them, so if she can't find someone to adopt them, they will be going to a shelter. Can you help me find them a home? They are in good health and very tame.

This week's MetPy Monday tutorial demonstrates how to access GFS analysis data from a THREDDS Data Server: buff.ly/0LfaLnf

Pretty sunset thunderstorm rolling through the mountains north of Tucson may have sparked a wildfire this evening (blurry due to extreme zoom). Is it possible to submit sightings via Watch Duty?

Hoo boy, this is an amazing piece of scholarship that @samlmontano.bsky.social has done! Bottom line if FEMA Council report becomes law: you’re on your own, disaster survivors.

"The funding supported 24 faculty members, 35 researchers, 46 graduate students and 83 undergraduates." 🧪

Props to CNN’s chyron writer:

Okay, folks: The big El Niño update is now out on Weather West! This sure looks like it's going to be a dramatic year from a global climate perspective, and there are major implications for extreme events (across California, the U.S. West, & well beyond).

Read this one. (It's free.) Possibly the craziest investigation I've published. It's got mystery, fraud, false leads, a road trip & plenty of characters as I dig into what could be going on with 320K acres of public lands up for oil drilling in a place without oil. www.azcentral.com/story/news/l...

I know Calvin’s dad is already having a moment, but every terrible “outsource precious and fleeting moments with your children to tech so that you can spend more time on your work” pitch makes me think of that one strip I never really cared about as a kid, but care a lot about as an adult.

me for the past week

Please Use AI

Many tropical ocean regions used in SST monitoring are warmer than the tropical mean as of late, with two exceptions: the Niño 1+2 region off the Pacific coast of South America and the North Atlantic main development region (MDR).

1/ Five cases of New World screwworm have now been confirmed in the U.S., Texas has declared an emergency, and Canada immediately restricted livestock imports. Most people had never heard of screwworm until last week (or maybe just now). That's because we eradicated it from the U.S. in 1966.🧵

Charts of daily sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region since April 20 show a warming trend, followed by a plateau, followed by another spike in SSTs... now well above any year for this date since 1982.

The past week has been busy in the eastern North Pacific as the first three named storms of the season (Amanda, Boris, Cristina) formed. Amanda was one of the farthest west TC formations on record for June. Boris and Cristina are both expected to remain tropical storms while producing heavy rain.

WATCH: Our cofounder & CEO John Mills announces Watch Duty's first major expansion beyond wildfire: major flood events, live across the U.S. Here's what to know ⬇️

This is a really good point for those of you writing comments to OMB on the harm of the proposed funding rules changes. Make it specific, make it count! Avoid form letters, which can be batched.

"the screwworm is a lesson about the reality of good governance. State capacity is not so different from managing the electricity system or, for that matter, cutting carbon emissions, in that there is little political reward for getting it right." heatmap.news/daily/screww...

Official NASA statement regarding ISS leak and (potential) evacuation prep. Fingers crossed they can fix it. #ISS #NASA

SCOOP UPDATE: Oregon as well as Washington lost ocean-observation stations last fall. Two of three floating stations west of Newport were quietly yanked from the water and warehoused in Corvallis. www.kuow.org/stories/ocea...

Excited to share this study now out in JOM! Jasen's MS thesis was a labor of love and I'm glad to see it out in the world. Click the link to read on about the role of spatial gradients versus boundary residence time on supercell evolution!

Can I just give a shout out to the @ethz.ch researchers who initialised an AI weather model with a cat picture. 👏🐱

June marks the beginning of hurricane season. By refining hurricane forecasts, improving flood prediction, and enhancing storm risk communication, our work aims to arm first responders and citizens alike with life-saving information. 🌀

From the CEO of AAAS: “If this rule becomes final, Americans' hopes for future cures, national security and economic strength will rely on the scientific sensibilities of the nation's chief bureaucrat. Alzheimer's disease will not be cured by a budget analyst from either political party.”

I agree 100%. I am not a content creator. I do not make content, because people are not empty vessels waiting to be filled with contents. I am a scientist; I do and communicate science.