November 6: #Fung-wong is very quickly organizing as it heads towards the Philippines. This could be a very powerful typhoon as it heads through the archipelago. Parts of the Philippines are still in early stages of recovery following catastrophic flooding from #Kalmaegi.

Antarctica October temperature time series.

Birds flying above hurricanes? Damaged hospital posing as the actual one? Welcome to the phony world of AI-assisted weather disaster images. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/11/imag...

Hottest November day on record in Denver - 83° for a high: 🌡️ Breaks daily (78°) and monthly (81°) temp records 🌡️ Latest 83° on record in Denver (prev: Oct. 29) 🌡️ Go Broncos #COwx

The final act of the Hurricane #Melissa 10-day rampage will be tonight in southeastern Newfoundland, bringing an end to the historic hurricane's impacts. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...

Today's #Melissa post covers the slew of remarkable records the hurricane set. And look at the calendar when thinking about these records: Melissa hit on October 28, seven weeks past the traditional peak of hurricane season, at a time when less than 10% of an average season’s activity occurs!

Remember when social media was a useful tool for assessing damage post-disaster, instead of having to fish through fake photos made with AI garbage? That was nice.

Here's now a map view of the warming of the Caribbean during the months of September to November. While there are many environmental factors that impact hurricane intensity, this warming certainly plays a role in fueling that rapid intensification. More views at zacklabe.com/united-state... 🌊

Not since 1935 has anyone experienced a storm like Melissa. Melissa's record wouldn't have happened without climate change, which made the hurricane's winds about 10 mph stronger, according to a rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cata...

Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen. 188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica. rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/... #hurricanemelissa

Update #4: By the metric of observed maximum flight level winds at 700 mb, 10-sec average, preliminary data suggests that #Melissa is now the TOP Atlantic hurricane in the modern era of aircraft reconnaissance (since ~1977).

892 mb and 185 mph. Very few places in the world in modern history have ever experienced what Jamaica is experiencing right now. Hurricanes of this magnitude directly hitting a major land mass are exceptionally rare.

1-minute #GOES19/#GOESEast Visible and Infrared images with plots of GLM Flash Points showed prolific lightning activity within the inner eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa as it approaches the SW coast of Jamaica. Low-altitude mesovortices persist within the eye.

Rapid intensification gets a lot of attention and is typically part of the last push to category 5. This wasn't the case for Melissa however. The 24 hours leading up to becoming a cat 5 was one of the most gradual intensifications for any Atlantic cat 5.

A lightning-packed eye spins ferociously at the center of Hurricane Melissa.

August 23, 2017 vs. September 17, 2017 This is what the defoliation looked like across the Virgin Islands after Hurricane Irma swept the region as a Cat 5—and the worst winds actually missed the islands to the north. A swath of western Jamaica will look the same when the skies clear in a few days.

Hurricane #Melissa is on track to be Jamaica's strongest hurricane strike on record. Many superlatives to discuss in today's post, including a rough ride for the Hurricane Hunters: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/jama...

#Melissa is now the 3rd Cat 5 #Hurricane of the season! Only one other season, 2005, had as many (4). Melissa has winds of 160 mph and pressure of 917 mb. Already impacting #Jamaica now and conditions will deteriorate through today and tonight.

In case anyone was wondering about this, see paragraph 2 :-O

If current forecasts hold, Melissa will be the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Jamaica. Sustained winds at landfall may top 140 mph, along with localized rains of 40"+ and major storm surge. Here's my latest update with @drjeffmasters.bsky.social: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...

Big hat tip here. Melissa has already made some good headway southward this evening.

Update: The long-awaited rapid strengthening of #Melissa is now under way. As of 5 p.m. EDT Sat, the National Hurricane Center is predicting that Melissa will be a *Category 5* hurricane by Monday. www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...

Now a hurricane, #Melissa is poised to rapidly intensify into a potentially catastrophic major hurricane by Sunday. The latest from @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/hurr...

Friday 11pm advisory from NHC includes *4* consecutive 6-hourly periods of rapid intensification for #Melissa. (30kt+ in 24 hr) Forecasting RI was a dream not long ago, now we see it done skillfully several times per season. That's progress!

The long-awaited organization #Melissa appears to be starting, judging by the more symmetric look of the heavy thunderstorms around its center. The delay in Melissa's intensification has increased the threat to the central Caribbean, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain:

Tropical Storm #Melissa has not yet strengthened. But this actually bad news, since a weaker storm is more likely to linger in the Caribbean and become a major hurricane, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

Slow-moving Tropical Storm #Melissa is likely to become a dangerous Caribbean hurricane capable of drenching Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba with torrential rains that will trigger life-threatening floods. The latest from @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I:

Uncertainty is high, but with only two to three days to prepare we must consider the potential for a tropical cyclone hitting Hispaniola this week. Sixty percent of models this morning indicate this. See DeepMind AI (FNV3), American GFS, European AI (AIFS), and US Navy. 1/

The main event for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, as far as life-threatening impacts go, could well be unfolding in the Caribbean this week, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

75 years ago today, Category 4 Hurricane #King made landfall directly on #Miami. No major (Cat3+) hurricane has gotten closer to Miami since then. The next closest was Andrew in 1992, and the center of that hurricane passed about 20 miles to the south and brought Category 2 winds to the city. [1/3]

Another great read from @scrawford.bsky.social, with necessary (but politically hard) solutions. “Unless governments at all levels do the extraordinarily difficult work of forcing physical changes that will keep people safer, only despair, foreclosures, and sinking markets are ahead.”

One life is lost, two are missing, and hundreds are in turmoil after the remnants of Typhoon #Halong got re-energized over unusually warm water. Its rare track pushed record storm surge into Native Alaskan communities along the remote SW coast. Here's my full look w/@drjeffmasters.bsky.social:

One dead, dozens rescued and roughly 1,000 displaced in western Alaska communities hit by ex-typhoon, reports Corinne Smith for @alaskabeacon.com

For the 2nd time in the past 4 days, we have another Atlantic "fish" storm only of concern to marine interests forming in an unusual location for this time of year. My latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

It continues... as of 6am on Monday: - a 4th consecutive day with record-high dewpoint (57°F so far) - 106 consecutive hours and counting with a 50°F+ dewpoint

No hurricanes, but yikes: —TS #Jerry drenching the N Leeward Islands —Moisture from TS #Priscilla that could trigger flash floods in the SW US —The northernmost named Atlantic storm on record (#Karen) —Plus one heck of a mid-Atlantic coastal storm brewing yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/kare...

The northern Leeward Islands will need to watch out for newly-formed Tropical Storm Jerry. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

The next Atlantic threat figures to pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cent...

The flow of the Colorado River has shrunk about 20%, and its depleted reservoirs continue to decline. But talks aimed at addressing the shortage are at an impasse, and environmental groups say the lack of information about the closed-door negotiations is a problem. www.latimes.com/environment/...

A seemingly modest 7% increase in winds and 12% increase in rain due to global warming increased the damages from Typhoon #Ragasa by over 1/3, a new study has found. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/clim...

Hurricane #Imelda has Bermuda in its cross hairs, but fortunately, the island is one of the most hurricane-hardened places on the planet. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/berm...

Several models are suggesting that Imelda and Humberto could merge over the North Atlantic, as shown in this HAFS forecast.

I've stepped down as Vice Provost at @upenn.edu to focus on public scholarship & outreach, which I feel is so important at this moment. I remain Presidential Distinguished Professor of Earth & Environmental Science & Director of @penncssm.bsky.social Statement here: michaelmann.net/announcement/

Imelda and Humberto are both hurricanes and less than 500 miles apart this morning. No two Atlantic hurricanes have been recorded so close together in the satellite era (since 1966). Imelda is Bermuda bound with a possible sting jet forming as it passes.

After drenching the Bahamas, Bermuda is the next land area that needs to be concerned with Imelda. The latest from @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/trop...

What happens when two tropical cyclones get "too" close to each other? It depends! There's often some rotational component of movement around a central point, but the strengths of each cyclone also make a huge difference. This week, #Imelda is set to be pulled into much stronger #Humberto's orbit.

“The [Department] has added “climate change,” “green” and “decarbonization” to its growing “list of words to avoid” at its Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, according to an email issued Friday… “The words on the DOE list are at the heart of EERE’s mission.”

:-(

The big development since yesterday is forecast models falling in line with sharply turning future Imelda east and avoiding U.S. landfall. Still the U.S. isn't getting off scot-free. The latest details plus all the Category 5 Humberto stats and eye candy.