Maybe the ice really IS all it’s cracked up to be on #LakeErie! 🧊 NOAA's #GOESEast (#GOES19) satellite captured a massive fracture forming in the lake ice on 2/8/26. It was approximately 80 miles long... WATCH: satlib.cira.colostate.edu/weather_medi... via NOAA NESDIS/CIRA

Tomorrow is going to feel amazing for a huge swath of the country. Those 60s and 70s in the south are fantastic, but Tuesday will also be the warmest day in ~27 days for much of the Great Lakes region.

How are we doing on snowfall this season in the Contiguous U.S. through January? Well, it's the lowest combined total thru Jan since 1943-44. While places in the South and East that average 5" to 20" have done pretty well, most everyplace out West (MUCH higher averages), have had little to no snow.

Shirtsleeve weather today in Great Falls MT...which happens to be farther north than Caribou ME.

Great article. Also, selfishly, excited that @bhensonweather.bsky.social references a recent paper that a few of us recently published on rapid intensification trends of tropical cyclones using ENSO based on RONI. Paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...

Not surprisingly, record warm winters-to-date in many West cities, including Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Portland. Pretty stunning to see how much SLC is pummeling their previous record warmest season-to-date. (Data: SERCC)

Statewide snowpack remains the worst on record, and it's not even close. It's barely half of where it should be. Again...zero pleasure delivering this news. There are outs, but we're gonna need a railroad track of storms in late February-April to get us out of this. #COwx

“ Our power went out at 4:40 Sunday morning. By then the ice was already thick on the trees. My husband and I lay in bed and listened in the sudden silence as tree branch after tree branch cracked, gave way, and hit the ground.”

🌡️CARIBBEAN RECORD COLD [1 Feb] Max 10.8C/51.4F Freeport LOWEST MAX. TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE BAHAMAS Min. 5.4C Gallon Jug Lowest Temperature in BELIZE since 1968 Lowest in February since 1895 57F/13.9C Guantanamo Bay Military Base All time low tied

The @agu.org has a nice tool to help you write and submit a comment to NSF about why it's essential for the nation to keep NCAR intact. They have guidance on how to write a good comment and the specific questions NSF seeks comment on. Deadline is Mar. 13. agu.quorum.us/campaign/154...

The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...

This winter blast is far from over. Washington, DC, is on track for its longest stretch below 32F in almost 40 years. Nearly 400,000 U.S. customers are without power. And snow could envelop NC's Outer Banks this weekend. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...

In my newsletter this morning, I shared the experimental real-time freezing rain ice accumulation analysis developed by the winter weather research group at NSSL. This is the kind of R2O NOAA does that has clear societal benefit - and that the admin wants to curtail. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb

Excellent analysis by @drshepherd2013.bsky.social of why this has been a perfect storm—and maybe at a perfect cultural moment—for fostering viewer/consumer rage directed at societal experts, in this case broadcast/online meteorologists.

Over a million now. Some of this is related to the severe storms in Alabama or high winds in the Appalachians, but most is clearly the ice storm.

If temps follow the current NWS forecast, Washington DC will stay below freezing for at least eight days & nights. (Official reports are collected at DCA.) Only one other stretch in the last 80+ years has been so prolonged: Dec 16-25, 1989 (10 days). All-time record: Jan. 23-Feb 3, 1936 (12 days).

The fact of the matter is: a severe #IceStorm is developing across much of the country at this very moment, with potentially devastating and far-reaching consequences extending far beyond the region of maximum #ice concentration. Watch out for the #ice, and help your neighbors weather the storm.

I think if anyone were serious about climate philanthropy they would just buy this building and hire every single NCAR employee and call it a day

A week-plus in DC below freezing? Perhaps, as a prolonged winter storm moves into the central and eastern U.S. this weekend. Heavy snows will stretch from the Ohio Valley to New England, with dangerous ice from TX to NC. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...

What Dennis says. Home generators—often seen as lifesavers in events like this—can be hazards. The 2021 TX cold wave unleashed what one physician called the “biggest epidemic of CO poisoning in recent [U.S.] history." At least 1400 Texans sought medical care. www.texastribune.org/2021/04/29/t...

Psa. No. With dropping temps, you may get some cracking in trees but no explosions. Jeez.

The sad thing is that a not-insignificant amount of "old guard" meteorologists are falling into the YouTube sensationalism to keep their engagement numbers up. A solid 70% of the extreme model images I've seen on Facebook were posted by broadcast meteorologists.

On top of the incoming geomagnetism (which spawns the northern and southern lights), today's solar storm is packing a huge radiative punch—the most powerful in 23 years. A very big deal for high-latitude aviation, satellite tracking, etc.

Colorado: Our best bet to see the storm will be just after sunset tonight. Look north around ~5:30-5:45p. Fingers crossed this holds until sunset tonight! Solar storm is ongoing - fingers crossed this holds until sunset! If so, should be a great show. #COwx

Breaking through the 9s! Look at the Hp 30 index go!!! 9.67 and climbing as the solar storm intensifies. G5 conditions are possible today, but it would be ideal for the Bz to turn back south for that scenario. Truly incredible numbers today on all space weather metrics!

Oh my. This escalated quickly. Already at G4 level (K index = 8). Could be an unusually early aurora show tonight in N America, given the time of year and the screaming pace.

Fast-moving & destructive wildfires--some burning into populated areas in/beyond the urban interface--have occurred across many of the Southern Hemisphere's fire prone regions (including Chile & Argentina, South Africa, & SE Australia) over last 3 weeks.

Huge, Earth-directed coronal mass ejection now en route. Geomagnetic Storm Watch (G4-level) in effect. "Watches at this level are very rare," says NOAA. Could be substantial aurora displays on Mon night 1/19-1/20, even as far south as NoCal > Alabama. www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-seve...

I’ve never understood why “You’re A Special Part of Me” always left me so cold, despite so much incandescent talent at work (Diana! Marvin! Produced by Berry Gordy!). I think it’s the song itself. #AT40

Breaking: Senate overwhelmingly passes cloture motion on HR 6938, the "minibus" budget bill that will fund most fed science agencies. CO senators voted no, still in opposition over lack of wording protecting NCAR. Bill moves to debate before final vote. More: tinyurl.com/yfsvjmtj

My comprehensive report on the most important records set during 2025 for the globe.

Wednesday 9:31 am: Distribution of daily global mean temperatures for every year since 1940 compared to the 1991-2020 30 year global average:

2025 was yet another unusually warm year for the United States – and another year packed with costly disasters, despite the absence of any landfalling U.S. hurricanes. @climateconnections.bsky.social @drjeffmasters.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/four...

This is pretty much the definition of being an outlier. In 1992, the US Senate agreed 92-0 on ratifying the UNFCCC, and President George W. Bush signed it, calling it "the first step in crucial long-term international efforts to address climate change." bush41library.tamu.edu/archives/pub...

Isostatic rebound from the end of the Ice Age will cause Lake Superior waters to rise by 9.2" and 4.8" per century at Duluth and Marquette, respectively, with falls of 11.4"/century at the NE end of the lake. A repeat of Duluth's costly Jun 21 storm (archive.is/G0eTK) will be costlier in the future.

#at40 A tidbit on today's first Three Dog Night song, "Never Been to Spain": the original lyric by Hoyt Axton goes "In Oklahoma / Born in a coma." (Hoyt, a native Okie like me, is the son of "Heartbreak Hotel" writer Mae Boren Axton and the first cousin of late OK senator + gov David Boren.)

After the historic December warm spell,the January record warmth kicks off day #1 Record January Highest Minimums: (typical of early/late summer) TX 74 Brownsville 73 Port Isabel & Weslaco 72 Waco & Edinburg 72 Nakika MS OK 66 Mc Alester 64 Poteau,Durant and Ketchum Let's expect hundreds more

Tuesday 1:54 pm: Hard to read, translated some temperatures: Truly remarkable…between hourly observations, Grise Fiord reached 4.4C/39.9F, in effect, a high of 40F. Easily hottest January day on record. Average high this time of year is ~-27C/-17F. 11xxx is <0C, 10xxx is >0C.

A brief cooldown is on tap, and perhaps some legitimate midwinter weather by late Jan—but for now, most of the southwest 2/3 of the United States is still eerily non-wintry. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/stil...

Fascinating and important analysis from @karinkirk.bsky.social: "The data illustrates how residential users are subsidizing the energy bills of A.I. and data centers, a perspective backed up by other recent analyses."

My hymn of praise for e-bikes in the evangelical Christian magazine Sojourners. We've invented a bicycle without hills. What could be finer? sojo.net/magazine/jan...

Got to do multiple meteorologist meet-ups during my week-long Atlanta vacation! The first was with @climateguyw.bsky.social, who gifted me this awesome Hurricane Hugo photo. Turns out both of us had harrowing experiences in the eye—mine in air, and Guy’s on the ground (in Charleston).

Fantastic analysis from @wxmanms1.bsky.social on the mind-blowing warmth of recent days in and around Oklahoma, and why it's so different from a seemingly similar event in 1955.

Ho, ho….oh 😮

Thursday 8:59 am: Very warm air aloft has arrived at the surface, downsloping from the Rockies. Sturgis is in the upper 60’s at dawn in this warm wind, ~50F above average for this time of the day on a Christmas Day!

Record heat in Sao Paulo Exceptional warm night in the Airport station of the Brazilian metropolis with a Minimum Temperature of 25.4C,the highest ever recorded in December. Record heat in South America will continue and get worse next days. Expect several more records.

Absolutely insane what s going on in USA: Monthly records pulverized by hundreds in over a dozen States with unbelievable margins: For example Salt Lake City UT Minimum of 59F is SEVEN degrees F higher than the previous monthly record. Thousands of records coming next days...

The classic mountain rains of Christmas are forecast to move in.

Friday from the American Meteorological Society concerning the government announcement of the closing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR):