One of the best parts of having young kids is that they tell EVERYONE that it's your birthday. Then they yell out your age and end with "that's so crazy that he's so old." Glad the school bus driver and I could share that awkward moment at 7:18AM this morning.

✓ Increasingly expensive disaster costs ✓ Higher reinsurance pricing (insurance for insurers) ✓ Insurers reassess their portfolio exposure / raise premiums ✓ Replacement costs rise ✓ More people move to high-risk areas ✓ Home values decline ...and more. The link? Growing risks from climate change.

Absolutely magical and stunning view of the Northern Lights from my front lawn tonight in the northern suburbs of Chicago. Science. The best.

If you live in a 100-year flood zone, here are the probabilities of experiencing a flood during the life of your hypothetical mortgage: 15 years: 14% 30 years: 26% 50 years: 40% Plus, more years of mandated flood insurance premiums -- though you should buy it regardless of the lender requirement!

November 9/10: Rather exceptional snowfall forecast here in the greater Chicago metro region, including northwest Indiana. Very dangerous driving conditions given snowfall rates could be 3+ inches per hour (plus 30 mph winds). Locations just miles apart could see dramatically different snow totals.

November 6: #Fung-wong is very quickly organizing as it heads towards the Philippines. This could be a very powerful typhoon as it heads through the archipelago. Parts of the Philippines are still in early stages of recovery following catastrophic flooding from #Kalmaegi.

Many parts of the world have successfully translated investment into renewable energy as the dominant provider of electricity for its citizens. This is the way.

I'll keep repeating this truth. There are few industries that understand the complex realities of how climate change is affecting the world today more than insurance. Physical risk. Non-physical risk. Liability risk. Reputational risk. Etc. We see it. www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/brea...

Typhoon Kalmaegi headed to Vietnam after causing catastrophic flash flooding in the Philippines. Parts of Vietnam have dealt with exceptional flooding from storms since September. Those flood damage costs are estimated beyond $2.04 billion. Yet another storm (Fung-wong) on deck for the Philippines.

REMINDER: An "insured loss" is simply the portion of economic loss costs from an event that is covered by insurance. It is not an added loss value on top of an economic loss. Seeing multiple news agencies interchangeably refer to an insured loss estimate as a total economic loss. Incorrect.

That was the Bearsiest Bears game in the history of Bearsing that I've ever seen as a Bears fan.

Important article on the incredibly complex and nearly impossible tightrope walk for the California insurance market with the wildfire peril. One correction is needed. Traditional catastrophe models now allowed to be used for pricing are NOT climate change models. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

Sports. The creator of irrational highs and lows. Can't get enough!

Every Halloween, this is apparently the scariest thing in the neighborhood. Without fail, at least one person stops and asks if this 'thing' is invading people's privacy. The look of bewilderment when it's revealed that this is a weather station never ceases to be hilarious. 😂

#Melissa: Jamaica will receive an insurance payment of $70.8mn from its policy through the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF); a record for the program. Combined with the expected full $150mn payout from Jamaica's catastrophe bond, this will be important liquidity. (1/2)

ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally. Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966 (1/2)

Thanks to @afreedma.bsky.social for the inclusion in this piece. An honor to share quotes with some of the biggest titans in tropical cyclone research.

Received a few questions regarding insurance in Jamaica. Roughly 20% of residential properties currently have insurance. However. Of that ~20%, a remarkable 95% of those properties are "underinsured" -- or not insured for the full value of their home. #Melissa jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news...

October 28 12:45pm ET: #Melissa in the process of coming ashore. Very concerned about Montego Bay getting into the eyewall. The whole island right now is taking the worst of what Melissa was going to bring: exceptional winds, blinding heavy rainfall, and extensive coastal storm surge.

#Melissa: It is not hyperbolic to say that parts of western and central Jamaica will be unrecognizable once the storm passes. This is one of the strongest known tropical cyclones to make landfall anywhere in the world. And. Yet another example of a strengthening storm up to the point of landfall.

This whole thread. Perfection.

Updated #Melissa stats: ✓ 7th known Atlantic hurricane with sub-900 millibar intensity ✓ One of 10 known Atlantic hurricanes to reach at least 180 mph sustained winds (1-minute average) ✓ 2024 & 2025: First back-to-back Atlantic seasons with 180+ mph / <900mb hurricanes

October 28 9:00am ET: #Melissa is now a 180 mph storm with a central pressure down to 896 millibars. Only 5 other known Atlantic storms have had stronger wind speeds (Allen, Dorian, Wilma, Gilbert, Labor Day (1935)). 2024 & 2025: First back-to-back years with <900mb Atlantic hurricanes on record.

October 28 8am ET: #Melissa making final approach towards Jamaica. The situation remains extremely serious for Jamaica. Parts of Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas are all facing impacts from this storm, too. A short thread upcoming... (1/n)

A 2017 paper reassessed the history of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) for global storms since 1979. As of 10:30pm ET on October 27, #Melissa is now *unofficially* only behind 2015's Hurricane Patricia (Eastern Pacific) for highest ADT in the past 46 years. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

What we're witnessing with #Melissa is ultra rare in the history of known hurricanes in the Atlantic. This level of sustained intensity and feasting on every joule of ocean heat content without any real disruption is incredible. Not hyperbole: Jamaica is facing a generational catastrophic event.

October 27 PM: Here is the updated Atlantic record book for most intense hurricanes in NOAA's official dataset going back to 1851. Melissa has rocketed up the list(s). In the past 72 hours, Melissa has seen: - Sustained winds increase by 100 knots (115 mph) - Minimum pressure drop by 91 millibars

October 27 11am ET: The current minimum central pressure of #Melissa is down to 908 millibars. This is the lowest MSLP in the Atlantic at such a late date in calendar year on record; surpassing Mitch (Oct 27, 1999) at 910 millibars.

#Melissa: 2025's fourth Atlantic storm to meet the definition of rapid intensification (RI); strengthen by 30 knots (35 mph) in a 24-hr period. Each 2025 Atlantic major hurricane has seen explosive >50 knot (60 mph) strengthening in 24 hrs. Only 2025, 2020, 2008, and 2005 have achieved this feat.

October 26 5pm ET: #Melissa, unfortunately, has never looked better on satellite. The NHC indicates Melissa is now up to 145 mph winds (Category 4). We'll see if this goes Category 5 in the next 24-48 hours. High potential for catastrophic impacts in Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola. Heartbreaking.

October 24: The potential risk to life and property in Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola from #Melissa is enormous. While predicted damage costs may not mirror a landfalling Cat 3/4/5 US mainland event, the societal implications could be catastrophic and long-term for many communities in the Caribbean.

“Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better.” -- Maya Angelou

Should the forecasts for #Melissa verify, it will become the next Category 4+ tropical cyclone for the globe. Longer-range trends show a higher frequency of total storms reaching the Cat 4/5 equivalent threshold. Roughly 40% of hurricane-equivalent global storms now obtain Cat 4/5 strength.

ICYMI: This week we released our Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report: Q3 2025 www.ajg.com/gallagherre/... YTD Totals Economic Loss: >$214bn (-37% from 10-Yr Avg) Insured Loss: >$105bn (-8% from 10-Yr Avg) US billion-dollar economic loss events: 20+ (7th year in a row) (1/n)

An escalation of wood / furniture pricing will drive higher replacement costs and more expensive insurance claims from natural catastrophes.

Update: The Grand Forks, North Dakota NWS office has confirmed that an EF5 tornado touched down on June 20, 2025. This means that a modern record streak without an EF5 tornado ended after 4,413 days. Even more miraculously? This occurred in the midst of a derecho, which is very unexpected.

***Another New Paper Alert*** We dive into the relationship of ENSO phase and rapid intensification (RI). Since 1980: We find that >80% of hurricanes that strike the US mainland, and cause >$5bn in economic damage, go through RI in its lifecycle. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Perhaps a provocative take: I'm not a big fan of studies that try to quantify future climate-related losses simply in the context of GDP. Trying to mix climate scenarios with macroeconomic modeling does not account for all the unique nuances linked to "future state" risk.

The best season in sports is postseason. #Cubs

***New Paper Alert*** While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season feels like a decade ago, here is a paper that does a deep dive into the headscratching "mid-season lull". This line-up of co-authors is incredible, and very humbling to be part of it. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Odd. Category 4 hurricane (Humberto) and strong Tropical Storm (Imelda) this close to the US -- with minimal landfall threat. Humberto will soon metaphorically take Imelda by the hand and drag them both eastward into the Atlantic. Bermuda and its excellent building codes are ready, if necessary.

Terrific first full day at NYC Climate Week. The best sessions to participate in are the ones that bring people together to discuss actual solutions to climate / sustainability challenges. We should be long past the point of having events that just rehash talking points of what we already know.

The Western Pacific has roared to life. Category 5 equivalent Ragasa to pass just north of the Philippines. Outer bands and an influence of steering flow moisture will bring flood risk to the Philippines and Taiwan. Weakening will occur prior to likely landfall in China / Vietnam in the coming days.

Excellent job by Notre Dame Stadium staff to get 80,000 people evacuated ahead of the first drops of rain and lightning getting too close.

Like being a kid in the nerdiest scientific candy store. So much important and critical research is being conducted here to better understand how to prepare our communities for natural catastrophe risk.

This was a really good article. It discusses the nuances of what (kinda) works in the carbon capture / sequestration space and the huge concerns on leakage if not done right. At the end of the day, what we truly need is to solve the root problem: transition away from burning fossil fuels.

Extreme weather / climate change risk is a societal AND economic risk. The connections are clear, but the messaging of that reality does not fully land with the public until, sadly, they are directly affected themselves.

Today (September 10) marks the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 2025, thus far, has been unusually quiet, but there is still a lot of season left to go. This graphic looks at US hurricane landfalls by day since 1950. Note that 43% of historical landfalls have occurred after Sep 10.

Today I was given the chance to host a listener segment on the new "Maximum Metallica" channel on SiriusXM. Playlist 🤘Blackened 🤘Stone Cold Crazy (Live; Freddie Mercury Tribute Concert) 🤘The Outlaw Torn 🤘The Four Horsemen 🤘Master of Puppets Thank you to Metallica and SiriusXM for the opportunity!

September 2: All indications that the Atlantic is about to wake up pretty quickly in the next few weeks. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions very favorable for development. The question, as always, is if storms do develop, what are the steering currents that drive where they go. Stay tuned.