Gorgeous eruptions on the Sun today with multiple prominences lifting off of the Sun's northern and southern polar regions plus a little spitfire eruption from the western limb around 22 UT. None of these CMEs are Earth-directed.

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Solar noon in Fairbanks, Alaska. The sun only rises six degrees above the horizon. We have 5 hours 48 minutes of daylight currently, decreasing at a rate of around six minutes per day.

Scientists can use helioseismology to probe for large active regions we can't see. In this annotated image courtsey of SolarHam, we can see two chunky active regions approaching the east limb potentially rotating into our view in the coming days. Ex-AR 4274 looks healthy, too. #heliophysics

Earlier today, there was an occulted C9.9 flare observed behind the Sun's eastern limb around 09:52 UTC. Because the flare was not fully in our view, its magnitude was almost certainly in M-class range. A narrow CME occured with this flare which will not impact Earth.

A huge prominence is slowly lifting off the Sun's northern hemisphere right now - beautiful stuff. The CME will likely not have an Earth-directed component, this is just eye candy. :)

Small, negative-polarity coronal hole no. 96 is currently facing Earth and could send a small burst of fast wind our way, reaching us by perhaps the weekend. Minor geomagnetic storming is possible, but I am not getting super excited about this one... 🧵 #heliophysics

If you are listening to the segment this morning on Alaska Public Media, feel free to call/email the station in real-time with questions, and our panel can answer them! Let's hear from you all!

I will be LIVE on Alaska Public Media from 10-11 am AKST to talk about aurora and the big storm last week! This will be during the "Talk of Alaska" segment. You can listen even if you don't live in Alaska: alaskapublic.org

Earth-facing quiet… besides AR 4284 and some groups potentially developing close the eastern limb, the sunspot number has fallen from a mighty 150 earlier this month down to around 50 today. We have seen this oscillation back and forth before, so maybe a surge is coming…

Beautiful aurora happening now just a few steps from my front door here in North Pole, Alaska. Am I spoiled? Lol

Substorm now kicking up some activity for U.S.-Canada border states. Worth going out and taking a peek north if you have clear skies and low light pollution. A smartphone may be able to catch a faint glow right now. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

Some minor aurora is now visible on the horizon from Fairbanks. Unfortunately, I have a zoom meeting at 8 am tomorrow or I would be staying up for the inevitable substorm. I think this is the 10th or 11th clear night in a row here which is pretty awesome.

More active regions rotating in soon? Helioseismology thinks so! Take a look at this image which shows the Earth-facing disk magnetic field in the middle (different colors represent different polarities) and the farside on the sides.

There's a new kid on the block! Say hello to AR 4284 which formed rapidly on Sunday and is already producing occasional C-flares. It looks like it could be our next major flare player if it continues developing and becoming more magnetically complex. Let's wait and see...

Watching the aurora dance…

Chilly walk today at 3 pm as the sun was setting here in North Pole, AK. Important to soak up a little vitamin D even if the Sun only gets six degrees above the horizon.

There were a few nice substorms tonight pushing auroral visibility to the U.S.-Canada border with bright pilars on the horizon. Here is one of those substorms below with the associated spike in GOES Mag highlighted.

There's a slight glow of aurora at Isle Royale, MI currently. Perhaps this could be photographed from near the U.S.-Canada border, but it looks like it wouldn't be naked-eye visible. Nice night regardless. theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams

Also, even though the Nov 12 storm was impressive, take a look at another "G4 storm," the Oct 10, 2024 event. By nearly all metrics except the Kp, the October event was stronger - Ap (daily average Kp), Dst, Hp 30, etc. How we define a geomagnetic storm strength matters.

Here are the top four geomagnetic storms this cycle in terms of Hp 30. The Apr 23, 2023 storm reached a max Hp 30=9.0, although it was stronger in terms of Dst than the Jan 1, 2025 storm (by 1 nT). The only storm to have officially reached the G5 mark is the May 2024 event.

All this wasted potential… tonight could have seen G1-G2 storming with the elevated IMF and speed IF (and it’s a big if) the Bz were pointed south. Instead, we currently have Kp 3+ conditions and only a slight glow along the U.S.-Canada border looking north. Bz matters!

Pillars going up in Ely, MN. If you're above the 45th parallel and have clear and dark (low light pollution) skies, you might be able to see something on the northern horizon. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

There is a green glow to the north in Ely, MN indicating some aurora building as a result of this minor CME impact. Views could build slightly, especially if we see more south Bz. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

I am watching the Maine cam right now waiting for any auroral activity to appear due to the favorable Bz conditions. The early parts of a CME impact are typically jumpy like this with Bz oscillations. Maybe we will see something soon, though. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

The Bz is now pointing south around -10 nT with speeds ~600 km/s. We may see a bit of mid-latitude activity now that conditions have favorably flipped in the right direction. If you're above the 45th parallel, start monitoring for substorm activity. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

A small CME has impacted our upstream satellites at L1. There isn't really anything that will change as a result of this, but it could be the X4 CME that was supposed to make a glancing blow impact. So far, the Bz is pinned north.

Auroral activity at mid-latitudes is quiet so far, but there is perhaps the slightest chance of a glow along the U.S.-Canada border due to the predominantly south Bz and slightly high wind speed > 500 km/s. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

So you're telling me we have a chance! HUXt gives the X4.0 CME a 3% chance of hitting. An updated NASA model also shows a slim chance of a glancing blow around Nov 16 midday UTC. NOAA still believes the CME will pass west of Earth. Let's see what happens at L1 tomorrow.

This is wild! Here is a mosaic image combining satellite passes from NOAA 21, Suomi NPP, and NOAA 20 showing the auroral oval very extended during the geomagnetic storm earlier this week. I have annotated where the typical auroral oval rests over the north geomagnetic pole.

Current view from North Pole, Alaska. This photo represents pretty accurately what the aurora looks like to my naked eye right now. The bright outdoor lights on the side of the house accentuate the colors in the sky (cone activation) but diminish the brightness of the aurora (rod suppression).

Decent growth-phase arc setup over Fairbanks right now! Clear skies for the rest of the night as well, so if you're chasing this, make sure to stay out and be patient. The expansion phase WILL eventually come with dancing and vibrant colors. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

With the X4.0 CME a miss, our next chances of mid-latitude aurora barring any unexpected activity come on Nov 16-17 due to fast solar wind from a northern-hemisphere, negative-polarity coronal hole.

Wow! I am looking at some scientific imager data, and here is an all-sky timelapse movie from El Leoncito, Argentina at 6300 Å. You can see the aurora really flare up around 2:35 UT looking on the southern horizon of the image.

Current solar wind data are not conducive for mid-latitude aurora with the Bz essentially pinned north, "turning off" the light switch for the aurora except for at very high latitudes. Tonight is another night to catch up on sleep it seems!

According to NOAA SWPC, the X4 CME will have little to no impact at Earth. The time indicated is roughly the time we could see any enhancement in the solar wind due to CME influences. I expect basically nothing from this event, but we the coronal hole coming in a few days.

SDO AIA 193 Å imagery beside GOES X-rays showing the first CME due to the minor M-flare followed by the wide coronal EUV wave (shockwave) due to the X4 event. This CME may produce a glancing impact at Earth around 12 UT on Nov 16 based on preliminary modeling.

An early model of the X4 CME has been released by the NASA M2M office. It shows a weak glancing blow at Earth around midday UT on Nov 16. The CME could enhance the coronal hole influences around that time. Maybe G1-G2 storming is possible with high uncertainty in my opinion. #heliophysics

The X4 CME from AR 4274 generated a nice coronal mass ejection (CME), but most of the blast is headed away from our planet. This is because the active region is positioned on the Sun's limb and not facing Earth like it was last week. Still, we may see a clip from this CME. #heliophysics

The ongoing X4 flare from AR 4274 is eruptive from the first few frames on GOES SUVI 284 Å. You can see a blast wave beginning to propagate away from the area, indicating a CME has erupted. If the CME is wide enough, Earth could get a glancing blow, but it's too early to say...

We've reached the peak! X4.05 from AR 4274. It seemed like only a matter of time until we got another big one from this active region, and wow is it a beautiful flare! Monitoring for any CME activity now, but unfortunately the bulk will of any will be directed away from Earth...

X2.8 flare and CLIMBING ongoing from AR 4274!

As the flare peaked, another stair step has now brought it up on the verge of X-class territory... AR 4274 is not going out with a whimper, that's for sure!

"I hope you haven't forgotten about me!" says AR 4274 as it is now flaring at low-level M-class. The region is not in a great position to produce CMEs directed our way, but we'll still keep an eye on this activity to see what happens.

Going to leave you tonight with another crazy video of the vibrant red aurora we saw in Alaska a few nights ago. Incredible naked-eye colors that made the sky look like it was on fire.

Now that this historic storm is over, we have another, likely much smaller geomagnetic disturbance in store. Coronal hole no. 95 is directly facing Earth and sending fast solar wind our way. We should start to see effects in a few days. Minor geomagnetic storming is possible.

Conditions are very quiet tonight and mid-latitude aurora is not probable. Sorry to say, but I think this historic storm is coming to a quiet close...

Fun fact, according to Google Trends data, the northern lights were the third-most searched topic in the United States over the past seven days! Very cool to see..

Quick update: Geomagnetic activity is slowly dying down, and we will likely not see G3+ conditions tonight (Nov 13-14). #aurora #spaceweather