Some great data currently to support active auroras at high-latitudes, and we could see a substorm create some sporadic horizon activity at mid-latitudes as well. This is in response to a minor CME impact earlier.

Well, my earlier post never sent right at 3 pm, and in that time we got a minor CME impact, go figure! This might be the C6.2 eruption, but whatever it is, an enhancement to only ~10 nT so far is not too impressive.

The current time is 3 pm CST or 9 pm UT on Jan 4. There may be another CME impact soon according to NOAA's ENLIL model. This is the C6.2 CME which may cause minor geomagnetic storming tonight (Sunday). NOAA SWPC is keeping a G1 (minor) watch for today.

We may have seen our M7.1 CME after checking solar wind data. A highly radial CME structure has been affecting us the past day or so. This has led to very weak auroral activity even at high-latitudes. The C6.2 CME may impact any time now. It was forecasted at Jan 4, 11 UT.

A fairly large coronal hole is emerging off of the Sun's eastern limb. It will be rotating to facing Earth in several days when the fast solar wind will be streaming directly towards us. Impacts may not be felt for another week or so.

Despite the SSN > 130 which is a healthy reading, none of the active regions present on the Earth-facing disk besides AR 4325 which has a 20/5% chance of M/X-class flares. The total disk flare probability is 50/10% for M/X-class. There has not been an M-flare yet in 2026. #heliophysics

Even though many of my followers are aurora chasers and have seen the lights, most of the world has never seen them! If you’re one of these people, 2026 will be a great year to see the aurora!

Officially -51 F at the airport in Fairbanks right now 🥶🥶

Hey, everyone! I'm excited to announce that I will be presenting about video and timelapse of the northern light at the 2026 Night Photo Summit happening virtually from Feb 13-15. Grab your tickets here: npsummit.live/vincent

Had a fun time today presenting about the aurora at a retirement home! I was invited to talk about aurora chasing, and I gave some practical advice about planning a trip to Alaska and how to track and photograph the aurora in Minnesota!

Just a reminder that you can still order a 2026 aurora calendar from my site! For thr first week of 2026 (until January 7), I’ve added a discount “NEWYEAR20” for 20% off! Check it out! theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

Full moon + aurora = 🤯

Another nice night of aurora in store for Fairbanks. Healthy band already out now with the predominantly -Bz conditions. Should just get better over time, too! go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

Still no sign of any major CME activity that would lead to mid-latitude auroras… cloud cover and the full moon are also not helping the situation. I think tonight is likely a bust unless you’re close to the Canadian border and are fine with waiting out a substorm horizon show.

There is a G2/moderate geomagnetic storm watch for tonight (Friday) due to possible solar storm impacts. This is only a prediction, so nothing is certain, but some mid-latitude areas like the northern U.S. may see the aurora. Note the bright gibbous moon may impede viewing.

Here is a summary of upcoming forecasted geomagnetic activity. I am not sure this yet incorporates the C6.2 CME. There is a G2 forecast for UT day Jan 3 (Friday night) and a G1 watch for UT Day Jan 4 (Saturday night) due to coronal hole effects and glancing blow CME impacts. #heliophysics

What's going on in geospace? We are under the influence of CH10-, and we have solar wind speeds > 650 km/s. There may have been a small CME impact recently or it's just a random transient flux rope, but at least two CMEs may impact in the next 24-48 hours and enhance conditions to G1-G2 levels.

There were some nice auroral beads this morning over Fairbanks, Alaska for the first full night of 2026! We're starting off with a bang! Despite the very cold temperatures < -40 F/C, we had two aurora tours going out with Maia and Levi. Photos from those tours coming soon...

The M7.1 and C6.2 CME are in HUXt which predicts a roughly 2/3 chance either CME hits Earth. The M7.1 may arrive around Jan 3 8 UT +13/-7 hr while the C6.2 CME may arrive around Jan 4 at 20 UT +20/-10 hr. Both predictions are uncertain. A G2 watch remains in effect for Jan 3.

An eruptive C6.2 flare from AR 4324 launched an Earth-directed CME that may arrive around January 4th 15 UT +/- 7 hr. G1-G2 storming may be possible. A G1 watch is currently in effect for Jan 1, Jan 2, and a G2 watch for Jan 3. We may see an additional watch for Jan 4, now. #heliophysics

Here's a brief solar wind summary for the past day. We are in a period of solar wind with speeds ~500 km/s. Recently, the Bz has been predominantly southward, and there may have been a small CME impact at 1340 UT Jan 1. Kp 3-4 and active high-latitude auroras are possible now.

Happy New Year! Although 2026 has already begun, you can still order a 2026 aurora calendar from my site! For the next week, I’ve added a discount “NEWYEAR20” for 20% off! Check it out! theauroraguy.com/products/awe...

Happy New Year, everyone! Thanks for all the support in 2025 and for all the kind words, great ideas, fruitful discussions, and amazing stories! I’m looking forward to bringing a positive energy into 2026 so everyone can share in the joy of seeing the most beautiful fireworks.

NOAA SWPC modeled the M7.1 CME, and it's a nice hit at Earth around Jan 2 at 22 UT +/- 7 hr. The night to watch is tomorrow/Friday night for my North American/European followers. There is a G1 watch for today, Jan 1 and tomorrow Jan 2. A G2 watch has been issued for Jan 3. #heliophysics

This was my brightest aurora of 2025. What was yours?

The M7.1 CME has been modeled by NASA with the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to deliver a glancing blow at Earth around 21 UT on Jan 2. Impacts may be minor-moderate (G1-G2/Kp 5-6) geomagnetic storming pending the official NOAA SWPC prediction. Mid-latitude auroras possible!

Busy aurora chasing sorry

Here we see the M7.1 CME emerging in CCOR-1. It looks to be a partial halo and likely has some Earth-directed components. The northeastern bias is clearly seen as well. Now, we await agency predictions and modeling to estimate arrival time at Earth and relative impact strength.

Here is the M7.1 flare+CME from AR 4324. An EUV blast wave is seen primarily propagating to the northeast (upper left of frame). We may only see a glancing blow from this CME, but we'll see! Initial STEREO-A COR2 imagery shows a mostly northward-directed CME. #heliophysics

Here is a six-day (tracked) timelapse of the solar disk showing the evolution of active regions. AR 4325 has shown growth while AR 4324 (the site of the recent M7.1 flare) has been mostly stable. AR 4325 has a 65/30/5 and AR 4324 has a 40/10/5 % chance of C/M/X-class flares. #heliophysics

The EUV blast wave from the ongoing M7.1 flare indicates a wide CME with likely some Earth-directed component. However, the fastest portion looks like it is headed north and east of Earth. We'll know more when coronagraph imagery and agency models are released. Fingers crossed!

An M7.1 flare just occured near AR 4324 which is in the Earth-strike zone. It looks like a CME has been launched with this event which may have an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for further updates on this flare+CME...

Who has the lowest temperature on their thermometer in Alaska? Any -60 F readings? I’m curious… 👀 roommates back in North Pole said ours was near -50 F yesterday.

Last night’s aurora tour with Maia. Join us! Visit my website to learn how to book and what times are best to visit Alaska to see the northern lights. theauroraguy.com/pages/maias-...

Wow... Fairbanks just can't catch a break with this cold snap... temps are going to be nearing -50 F in town with isolated areas likely seeing -60 F next week. The coldest temp I have experienced in Fairbanks was -53 F recorded at the airport in Feb 2024.

CH10- is facing Earth and sending fast solar wind our way. The CIR may start affecting Earth around Dec 31-Jan 1. There is a G1/minor geomagnetic storm watch issued for Jan 1. Minor mid-latitude auroral displays are possible New Years Day!

So, how about our New Year's CME? Well, NASA is the most bullish with a flanking hit late on Dec 31. NOAA has a glancing blow early on Jan 1. HUXt just outputted a ~60% chance of arrival with high uncertainty for impact around Jan 1 midday UT.

Setting an alarm for 2 am to see the aurora in Alaska

Here is the NOAA SWPC CME model for the M4.2 event which may impact around New Years. They are a little less confident of impact than NASA. Only a glancing blow is expected. A G1/minor watch has been issued for Jan 1 for this CME and incoming coronal hole influences.

NOAA SWPC has issued a G1 watch for New Years Day, Jan 1, 2026 due to the potential arrival of a CME and effects from a recurrent negative-polarity coronal hole around Dec 31-Jan 1. Exact timing is not too important, just be aware of some minor activity possible Wed-Thurs!

We are very much out of the sunspot "doldrums" we experienced not just a week ago. The estimated SSN is over 140. The visible disk has a 45/10% chance of M/X-class flares. There aren't any complex regions in the Earth-strike zone, so we may have to wait for Earth-directed CMEs.

Pulsating aurora is under-appreciated

Will we see a CME impact around the New Year? NASA is forecasting the M4.2 CME may graze Earth around 12-31 22 UT (Wednesday night). Kp 4-6 (G0-G2) conditions may occur, but I don't have too much hope. We'll see what shows up at L1!

Quick update: An M4.2 flare occured a couple hours ago (peaking at 2238 UT on 12-28) around AR 4317. There was a CME produced that might deliver a glancing blow to Earth in a few days, but we will need to see what modelers at NASA and NOAA think before jumping to conclusions...

Last night’s aurora tour with Levi was a success.. even at -48 F! Maia is totally booked this week, but Levi has availability. Book here: theauroraguy.com/pages/levis-...

M1.31 flare just now from AR 4325 which is around the same area as the M5.17 flare on Dec 26. It doesn't look like there is a notable CME with this event. Maybe this region is developing a bit more and will continue its flaring activity? We'll see!

This is nature’s most spectacular light show.. the aurora!

Take a minute of your day and watch some slow, relaxing movement of the aurora in real-time. Captured from various locations around Fairbanks, Alaska

BOOM! Surprise M5.17 flare + CME just now from AR 4323. The CME is not directed towards Earth. This active region clearly still has some juice left in it after a rotation on the Sun's farside. This is the most flaring activity we have seen in some time, nice!!

AR 4323 (Ex-AR 4294, 4296 and 4298) is rotating into view. It doesn't look as impressive as when it departed the Earth-facing disk a couple weeks ago. There is a lot of plage and not a lot of sunspots. We'll see if this old region can muster up anything, but don't be too excited for now.