Are you ready for the Roller Coaster ride?? #Florida Feels Like temps will plummet 55 degrees from this weekend into early next week!! From summer sandals to winter woolies in 48 hours! #coldweather #winter #cold

Virtually unprecedented early season #cold outbreak coming to the Deep South to and #Florida early next week! Many records will fall. So what’s causing this huge cold air outbreak?? And how cold will it get in your neighborhood. Here’s more…

In our Heated World it’s not easy to achieve record cold outbreaks anymore. This will be an exception. The early week #winter #cold blast will be the record coldest in the Southeast US (magenta on map) since at least 1979 in the low-mid levels (850-500mb) of our atmosphere… 1/

What’s driving the upcoming record breaking cold snap?? It’s widespread warmth (up-to 30F above normal) and intense blocking in the Arctic/ Greenland/N Canada. That is squeezing out the (tropospheric) Cold Polar Vortex and forcing it south deep into the US… 1/

It will be a Shock to the system as we plummet 2 seasons in 2 days! After an almost summery feel this weekend with feels like temps near 90, temps will nose dive! By Tuesday morning it will feel ~55 degrees colder across much of Florida, w/ wind chills in the 20s and 30s in Central & North FL!

Shock to the system! Record / near Record Breaking Cold will overtake the Eastern US and Florida early next week. Feels like temps will drop 55 degrees, from near 90 Saturday to the 30s Tuesday. Actual lows will be in the 30s as far south as I-4 near Tampa and Orlando. #cold #winter #Florida

We Floridians are not made for this shock to the system!! (I’m not) ~55 degree drop in feels like temperatures. Humid Weekend heat index near 90. Blustery & Cold 30s Tuesday wake-up!

Widespread Freeze and Frost Likely across the Southeast Tuesday -Wednesday mornings! Frost-light freeze potential North Florida. Actual low temps will drop to near freezing as far south as the FL/GA line, with extensive 20s in the Deep South! 1/

Comparing the two most active natural cycles in the Atlantic (NOAA AMO chart at top) and the most recent period (now) still produces 2X more extreme hurricanes!! 1940-1970 vs 1995-2025 But wait. It’s not a fair comparison! Why?? … 1/

Crocs & Socks 🧦 Alert! The cold being advertised in Florida by the models for early next week is near record territory for early November!! Often only one model shows it, and often that model is wrong. So, I typically would not sound the alarm a week out. BUT this time ALL models show it… 1/

Most Americans support the Paris Agreement. Seems hard to believe right now. But notice the downtick/ uptick after presidential elections. Less people care when they think the government is on it. But when the government is out, interest grows again. climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...

No, your eyes are not deceiving you! Next week's cold blast is going to be near historic for early November. The models are very aggressive and if they are right we may tie or break records set ~100 years ago. These are wind chills… 1/

Can’t say I remember a more impressive early cold season blast!! Early next week models advertise temps tumble 20 plus degrees below norm in the East, w/ freezing temps in Deep South, 30s/40s overtaking north & central Florida. Meantime snow flakes will fly across the Great Lakes and Northeast

As warming increases, we are already accelerating past some well-known #climate tipping points - points of no return - while others are approaching fast. These tipping points mark critical forks in the road. Until now most changes have been manageable, but… 1/

Here’s a list of restaurants around the Tampa Bay Area providing free meals with the loss of SNAP benefits www.wfla.com/news/local-n...

Side by side, before and after, shows how Melissa’s Cat 5 winds stripped and mowed down trees, turning lush green vegetation to brown. Only the strongest storms can strip trees bare. #jamaica #melissa

Before/ After #Melissa damage in Black River, Jamaica. This is what Cat 5 hurricane damage looks like in a direct hit. Some chasers on the ground are comparing the damage to a high end EF-4 #tornado It’s likely gusts exceeded 200 mph esp since it was a strengthening storm at landfall.

Smart move Jamaica. Climate catastrophe bond about to pay off. “They divide Jamaica into boxes. Each box has a different central pressure that needs to be breached, so the storm needs to have a lower pressure than those boxes.”  www.cbc.ca/news/science...

Episodes of Atlantic Extreme Rapid Intensification - A 6X increase over the same since 1980 via @BhatiaKieran Things are certainly changing as the waters warm. Greater ratio of strongest storms, that rapidly intensify, BUT importantly not necessarily a higher number of tropical systems overall.

Beautiful day for our Trick or Treaters in the Tampa Bay Area!! But dress warm if you’re out past sunset! Have fun!

Yeah. It’s Climate Change. In the last 45 years the most extreme Atlantic hurricanes have nearly doubled and extreme rapid intensification has increased by 6X!! #climatechange #melissa #hurricane #fyp #florida

Updated image to include Andrew and two others. I inadvertendly left out A and B's when I added the database in. Doesn't change the message BUT I am sorry about that. Very annoyed at myself!

2X increase in the most extreme hurrucanes! Looking at every Cat 4 & 5 in the Atlantic since 1980 (reliable records/ data gathering) I broke the record into 2 equal parts. 1980-2002 and 2003-2025 The most recent period has more than double the number of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic!… 1/

“As early Oct 21 long before it was obvious that Melissa would be a monster storm the model predicted a 50–60% chance that it would reach cat 5, the Google DeepMind team says. On Oct 23 the model estimated the storm had an 80% chance of reaching a cat 5” www.nature.com/articles/d41...

From 1980-2002 THREE storms acheived extreme rapid intensification. From 2003-2025 EIGHTEEN storms achieved extreme rapid intensification. 6X increase! It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change! (source of data Dr Kieran Bhatia x.com/bhatiakieran...)

Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.

Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating) The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.

Watch #Melissa meander on a path right through arguably the hottest (deep) waters on the planet, powering one of the strongest hurricanes ever, then leave a cool wake behind as it turns hot water into power to charge its rain and wind... 1/

History making #Melissa! Here we discuss the records broken, dig into the science behind the why the #hurricane became so intense, and talk about how climate change contributed. #jamaica

Melissa Records: Strongest Atlantic Landfall (Tie) 3rd Strongest Atlantic Hurricane (Tie) World Record Driest/ Clearest Eye 3rd 2025 Cat 5 (2nd most) 4th Extreme Rapid Intensification Episide of 2025 (tied for 1st place) 1/

219-kt peak wind would be the highest wind value a dropsonde has ever recorded, ahead of 215-kt value in Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 & the 210 kt recorded just yesterday in #Hurricane #Melissa. Still needs to be validated… so this data is preliminary.

***ALL-TIME RECORD*** #Melissa is now the Strongest landfall ever on record in the Atlantic (and it seems to be getting stronger!) 892mb, winds 185 mph. (Tied with the FL Keys Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in wind and pressure) #jamaica 1/

The eye wall of #Melissa is now moving onshore. It’s an extremely dangerous storm, having maintained its peak intensity of 175 mph, Gusts 215, and pressure of 901mb. If it makes landfall at 900mb it would be a top three most intense landfalls in the Atlantic Basin. My thoughts are with #Jamaica

11PM: Melissa a little stronger. Pressure has dropped to 903 mb, making it the 9th strongest storm on record in the Atlantic. The winds may still increase slightly overnight due to pressure drop. Gusts are now up to 215 mph. #melissa #hurricane #jamaica

In my 30 years being a professional meteorologist, I can't say I have ever seen a #Hurricane with better/ more textbook structure than #Melissa in the Atlantic. It's been a Cat 5 all day long with no signs of getting any weaker. That's a rare run! Here's more...

Watch as it zooms all the way into the eye! Melissa just broke a World record for the "driest" eye in any hurricane! Illustrates just how textbook this storm structure is... 1/

#Melissa is now one of the strongest storms ever in the Atlantic! In my career I can’t say I’ve seen a more text book structure. Winds 175 mph, Gusts 200 mph Pressure: 906 mb, Cat 5. On its way to #jamaica tonight and tomorrow. Prayers for all to stay safe!

11AM Advisory. #Melissa stronger. Winds 165 mph, Pressure 908 mb. NHC says #Jamaica impacts up to 40” of rain, catastrophic wind damage in eye wall, and 13 ft of surge. 1/

#Melissa is now the strongest #hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, and it continues to deepen. Pressure has fallen to 913mb. There’s evidence to suggest it is already even stronger than 160 mph winds. It’s possible that will be adjusted upward soon.

#Melissa is now the 3rd Cat 5 #Hurricane of the season! Only one other season, 2005, had as many (4). Melissa has winds of 160 mph and pressure of 917 mb. Already impacting #Jamaica now and conditions will deteriorate through today and tonight.

As mentioned below, as bad luck would have it. #Melissa is moving through a patch of water that is THE Warmest in the Atlantic Basin. In parts of the NW #Caribbean water is still record hot, 88-89F

As major hurricane #Melissa passes over #Jamaica - moving painfully slow - it will dump biblical rainfall on the island, super-charged by both the rugged mountains and coincidentally the hottest water in all the Carbbean right now (88-89F) focused specifically around the island… 1/

#melissa will produce widespread 2-3 feet (with 36”+ in higher elevations) of rain as it rapidly intensifies to a major #hurricane, but moves slowly, and then collides with the mountains of #jamaica. Staying out of valleys, flood plains, and hillsides prone to mudslides will be key!

Gust forecast from our latest GRAF Hi-Res model. It shows landfall a bit further west this run. Don’t pay too much attention to the timing or location, because it will vary run to run, pay more attention to the overall picture. 1/

Jamaica has mountains over 5000 ft, a peak over 7K. Besides winds forecast to be cat 4/5 intensity (perhaps over 155 mph) the rain is expected to be prolific, due to lift from the mountains (similar to Helene in NC) especially IF #Melissa is a direct hit. A lot depends on the exact path. 1/

Today’s Hi-Res Hurricane models all show a major hurricane landfall / near landfall in Jamaica/ Cuba in 2-4 days. This is despite #melissa weakening some today. If this is to happen, it means rapid intensification will have to begin soon. 1/

Talk about an impossible forecast! With no steering currents, #Melissa will move only a couple of hundred miles in 5 days, yet the models are spread out all over the place. With some solutions showing a potential for cat 5, we have to get this one right for the Caribbean islands.

The latest, and consistent, trend is for #Melissa to track west, further away from Hispaniola which would avoid a worst case scenario for them, BUT it would give the Storm more time and space to intensify near/ south of Jamaica.. 1/

Some of the latest models are outlandishly extreme in intensity. Our two best hurricane models, HAFS A and B are near 900 mb Cat 5’s BUT this depends on #melissa moving southwest of the NHC track. If the storm gets into the W Caribbean, it is off to the races… 1/

The latest NHC #Melissa track has an average movement of only 2.5 mph! That’s ~300 miles in 5 days. Devastating to Hispaniola, and dangerous for #Jamaica if it takes this track (or east) this slowly, while strengthening.