Don't call it a come back... The globe has awakened from it's hurricane slumber with 3 major hurricanes / super typhoons in 3 days! All three have been cat 4 and 5's with #Ragasa topping the list at 175 mph. #Gabrielle is peaking now so 140 may soon be upgraded.

That escalated quickly!! #Gabrielle is now a cat 4, winds 140mph. With all the lightning around the eye it means rapid rising motion, a clear signal of rapid intensification, with more likely on the way! Luckily it will miss Bermuda and continue as a fish storm. #HurricaneGabrielle

Good morning. #Gabriellle now forecast to become a major hurricane as it heads away. AND a new “medium” chance of development heading towards the Bahamas. Tropics are coming alive. Stay tuned.

A beast - Super Typhoon #Ragasa - winds 180 mph (estimated) near landfall on the islands of the Northern Philippines

Two monsters. Both on the other side of the World. Left: Super Typhoon #Ragasa in the West Pacific with 160 mph winds. Right: Typhoon #Neoguri in the West Pacific winds 145 mph. While the Atlantic tries to find its legs, the West Pacific is lit up!

Why is hurricane season so quiet? The big issue is lack of rising air in the Tropical Atlantic. Left: Vertical instability has been very low, meaning lack of unstable rising air. Right: the pressure has been very high. High pressure causes sinking air, whereas low pressure causes storms to form 1/

#Gabrielle is in a fight for her life, and it’s not clear if she will make it. Striped of its thunderstorms, it remains a naked, exposed swirl, fighting strong shear and an intrusion of dry, dusty air. #fyp #hurricane #fight #weather

I see you blushing ☺️ #Gabrielle Exposed!

Despite Gabrielle, the 2025 season is slacking! And that's just how we (I) like it. By now we should have 4 hurricanes and accumulated energy of 74 units. Instead we've only had 1 hurricane and 1/2 the normal energy (most was Erin). If Gabrielle becomes a hurricane it would be 3 weeks late!

In a normal climate, the % of days above -or- below average is ~50% Below: % of low temps above normal. Used to be 50-50. Now 80% of AMs are above normal in Tampa. It's not coincidence, it's climate change! Locally: More concrete, more asphalt. Regionally: Warmer Gulf. Globally: Warmer greenhouse.

TD 7 forms. Should be TS Gabrielle soon. Then perhaps a Hurricane over the weekend. Btw… this would only be the 2nd hurricane of the season. On average the 2nd cane forms Aug 26… so if it forms, it will be 3 weeks + late. No threat to the US, but Bermuda needs to monitor.

I know my Bluesky friends will appreciate this. Carl died in the mid 90s at Cornell, my Alma Mater. Carl was a role model of mine. Not sure who controls his account but they made my day!

The Tropical wave - soon to become #Gabrielle - is HUGE. 1000 miles across, equal to the distance between Tampa and New York City. Waves with big envelopes often take longer to organization and strenghten. So even if this develops today, it will "lumber" for days.

It's hard to overstate just how off the charts warm the Pacific is right now. The swath of the basin from California to Japan (a HUGE area) from 25N to 60N is ~3F (1.6C) above normal. To put it into math terms that is 6 Sigma/ standard deviations above the mean. More… 1/

I’m seeing red The tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands is forecast to develop - NHC now up to 70% chance. For now shear remains high and steering should keep this far out to sea. Google AI ensembles show a recurve.

Can’t say I’ve ever seen an Ocean Heat Blob this intense & vast, over the entirety of the Pacific basin - the marine heatwave is literally from coast to coast. It’s remarkable. Since May the record heat has now migrated to US West Coast. Note: the Tropical Pacific is cooling (La Nina forming)

The North Pacific Marine heat wave is absurd. Most of the northern half of the basin is at/ near records. Some of this is natural oscillation, some likely aerosol / greenhouse forcing and feedbacks 1/

Hurricane Killing Shear! A more pleasant sight nas not been seen in September. In my decades of doing this, I can't remember a stretch in peak season with this much wind shear across such a vast area of the Atlantic. It's overwhelming to hurricanes across most of the basin. 1/

New Study: All recent global heatwaves have been amplified by man-made climate change, with one-quarter of these events being virtually impossible without climate change. Paper in thread… 1/

The Gulf & Western Caribbean are record hot now. On the right top: record hot areas in deep red. Bottom: Gulf Temps over the last 40 years. The blue line on top is 2025, which is now in record hot, just ahead of 2023 and 2024, the two hottest years prior. The Gulf is warming due to climate change 1/

It’s the peak of hurricane season, and all through the pond, not a hurricane is stirring, not even a… [Need help! Lack cleverness! Help a weatherman out. Fill in blank…]

Powering our very unusual pattern - with early season Gulf cold fronts and strong wind shear - is an extremely amplified jet stream for September. It has thrown the whole Northern Hemisphere weather off-kilter... 1/

Near record lows possible this weekend in Florida. 60s may not sound like much, but Tampa’s average low doesn’t drop to 69 until mid October, so we are 5 weeks early. Well take it!

All hail wind shear!!! It’s like a buzz saw for hurricanes. And it’s all over the Atlantic cutting storms off even before they get going. That’s one reason it’s quiet now and it should stay this way for the next ten days. Would be nice is if we could keep the shear in place the rest of the season!

Florida, who’s ready for a break from the summer humidity?!? Later this week an early season front may sweep the atmosphere clean of the summer swelter in the northern half of the state. Relief may be on the way.

Gulf temps are now record hot for this time of year. It’s steroids for hurricanes. Luckily the Gulf remains hostile for tropical development for at least the next 10 days. Hopefully the Gulf stays hostile through October.

Ashes to ashes. Dust to dust. Saharan dust may deal a death blow to Tropical Invest #91L. It looks paltry right now and it may dissapate before it has a chance to develop. Models are nowhere near as bull-ish on development as they have been. NHC chance down from 90% to 70%. 1/

90% chance of development on Invest #91L. There is an unusually large amount of uncertainty with both the level of development/ intensity and also the eventual track. At this point all that can be known with any certainty is that the Lesser Antilles will need to be on alert in about a week from now.

Florida is about to go through some things…

Meteorological summer is in the rear view mirror! It was a top 5 or 10 hottest summer for many in the Tampa Bay Area, and after the wettest summer on record last year, rainfall was kind of normal. Here’s a look back… www.wfla.com/news/hillsbo...

Seen today near Tampa Bay. A Pileus / Cap cloud…like a lenticular cloud on top of mountains except it appears above cumulus clouds. A horizontal wind aloft hits the cumulus and it is forced upward, it cools and condenses and forms caps. Thanks Xanny Stoll for the picture from Parrish.

Get the hot chocolate and pumpkin spice lattes ready, 30s and 40s arrive later this week! Up to 20 degrees below normal. Sorry, no dice Florida. #fyp #cold #autumn #fall

Florida summer mornings have warmed up significantly over the past few decades. We now see 7X the # of 80 degree mornings in Tampa!! (as an example) This graphic shows the dramatic rise in 80 degree morning lows. The summer (June-Jul-Aug) long-term average is 4… but now-a-days we see about 30! 1/

Up to 70% this morning on our African tropical wave. Here are the Euro Ensemble Spaghetti plots. It’s far out there and there’s plenty of time to track. Odds are it stays a fish storm but that’s not for certain.

Meteorological summer is now in the books. It was the 3rd hottest in Tampa's history. Tampa International Airport hit two major milestones in 2025. First 100 degree day on record and the hottest heat index on record (119)! Both all-time highs at the end of July.

Monday 2pm: Chances for development are rising in the East Atlantic. Now medium, 50% chance. Below are the latest Google AI ensemble members spaghetti tracks. Worth watching - most likely will get recurved out to sea - but that’s not set in stone. Plenty of time to watch.

Get ready for a WILD ride across the US this week! Extreme jet stream means extreme heat in the West, and very early cold in the East! 105+ in the Pacific NW, 30s in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, and a real taste of Autumn in the East. 1/

#Katrina set the record for the highest US surge at ~28 feet. But the world record is an astonishing 43 ft from Cyclone Mahina in Queensland Australia in 1899.

20 years ago today #Katrina changed lives forever. Over the Gulf it was a cat 5 behemoth bulldozing a wall of water onshore. Part of its power came from the Gulf Loop Current, an ever present feed of deep hot Caribbean water. 1/

Record heat now outnumbers record cold by more than 3 to 1 in the US. In a normal climate, they’d be equal. After billions of years of natural hot & cold cycles, human forcing has now overtaken nature as the longterm driving force of our present & future climate.

An early season cold front resulted in over 100 record lows across the Ohio & TN Valley. This is a very rare feat now-a-days - due to climate change warming. When you look at the past year in the US record highs outnumber record lows by more than 3 to 1. Here's more in the Berardelli Bonus...

Listen closely you can hear a pin drop in the Atlantic. But on average 75% of Atlantic tropical activity is ahead. Being this quiet is rare as we approach peak season (last Aug was dead). Right now background climate state is unfavorable for development, but that will likely change by mid Sept

A chill in the air today! (Not you FL) Over 100 record lows tied or broken Wednesday in the eastern US. That’s extremely rare now-a-days in our warmer climate changed World. Over the past year, record warm temps outnumber record cold temps 3 to 1 in the US. Animation via CoolWx

In life - they say - there are the Haves and the Have nots. Which of you were lucky enough to Have the dry air today? And which of you are angry at the weatherman?

Would like to see this used alongside other methods in climate attribution studies once it is ready for primetime... phys.org/news/2025-08...

False fall is in the air! Numerous record lows possible in the Ohio and TN Valley area with spots up to 20 degrees below normal.

Waterlogged? You are not the only one. It's been a super soggy August so far, especially the past week. Sarasota is almost 5" above normal! Droughtbusting for many. We get a break the next couple of days with less rain and lower humidity north of Tampa Bay. The rain ramps back up this weekend.

Massive cool corridor still visible after #Erin churned up the seas with 50+ ft waves. #hurricane Cooler water caused by upwelling and heat used to power engine.

A long-major heatwave is setting up for Central & NW Canada with temperatures 15-20 degrees C (30F plus) warmer than normal late next week into next weekend. That means widespread 30-35C high temps (85-95F) way up north even near the Tundra. Climate change has made these events more intense/ likely

Florida be like: “REALLY!?!?” (These are departures from normal coming up this week. Blue & green is below normal.) Figures.