Supercell with waterspout off Pasco coast now. Right now it’s very gradually drifting east. Much closer it will need a #tornado warning. Stay weather aware. If you see the spout, please let me know.. tag or IM me. Thanks!

Wait for it… Huge humidity break coming to #Florida late week! Dewpoints drop 25° in spots going from the mid 70s to near 50° on Friday. Very rare refreshing air for May in #florida BUT sorry it comes with NO real #cool down.

On the precipice of precipitation. Rainy season starts soon in Florida! 🎉 Today’s scattered storms are from a front, but our daily downpours are just days away, depending on where you live. On average South Florida sees wet season start… 1/

Will we be a witness to El Niño history? It’s very possible! Every new model run exceeds our expectation for the “potential” strength of this upcoming El Niño event. The vast majority of models say a “Super” El Niño is coming. This video focuses on the huge impact on Galapagos life (penguins) 1/

Another week, another record. 82% of Florida meets or exceeds extreme drought! That’s the highest since we started keeping records in 2000. The numbers on the map indicate how much rain is needed in the next 3 months to end the drought. Around 30 inches - that’s a lot!… 1/

“…Pacific releases a lot of heat, it supercharges the climate system and wreaks havoc weather-wise. With more heat, there will be stronger heat waves, worsening drought in some areas, but also more moisture in the air that leads to more intense floods. 1/ apnews.com/article/el-n...

As each new model run comes in, it seems more possible that we are witnessing history. The latest NMME (North American Multi-model Ensemble) forecasts the strongest El Niño on record, with the white shading +3°C or higher (+5.4F) anomalies covering an immense section of the Central-East Pacific. 1/

Keep the mom’s cool this weekend! Florida is Baking under a heat dome through Day. The combo of heat and humidity will drive feels like temps over 100° in many spots! A preview of summer… although a touch of drier air will make things more comfortable by midweek. Happy Mother’s Day to all moms!

Florida has the hottest moms! Who agrees? If you can handle raising rug rats, you can certainly handle the heat this weekend. Heat index on Sunday 100°!! Wishing all the moms out there a Happy Mother’s Day! The work you do is truly heroic. Hope your day is filled with happiness & esp relaxation 🙂

You think it’s hot out today? To put it into perspective, it can be much hotter in #Florida in May. These are the record hottest temperatures experienced in May, NOT the forecast. May can get very hot, not only because of more direct sunlight, but even moreso because it’s still relatively dry …1/

“…When considering deforestation, we find a near system-wide transition of the Amazon forest (62−77% of the area) under the combination of a lower threshold range of global warming of 1.5–1.9 °C and deforestation of 22–28%.” www.nature.com/articles/s41...

“One of these things is not like the others…”Incidentally made famous by Sesame Street, but it feels appropriate for this visual. This shows the rate of global temperature change over the past 2000 years - in 25 year increments. The rate of change over the past 50 years just jumps off the page!… 1/

El Niño means “Emergency” for the Galápagos Islands! See that dark shade? That’s 20+ weeks of marine heat stress which NOAA says means “Near Complete Mortality” of shallow water coral, and threatens all the life associated, inc a life-threatening event for the Endangered Galapagos Penguins 1/

“Near Complete Mortality” n the NOAA scale. “States and Territories should be ready to intervene” says NOAA… as Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) is now up to 23 weeks of severe heat stress in/ around the #Galapagos.1/

Record heat through late week! Orlando, Jacksonville, Lakeland, Winter Haven, Sanford, Leesburg, Daytona Beach, Vero Beach, Melbourne and Key West all challenge record highs. Feels like temps near 100° #heatwave #hot #florida

To help us visualize the new European Centre El Niño forecast I added a little color and category. The average of the ensemble members is ~ +3C sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific El Niño region. That means the average for late 2026 is as high or higher than the any recorded El Niño! 1/

Let’s talk about recent warming rates and how they compare to other periods in the last 2000 years. It’s not even close. This graph shows temp change per 25 years. The last 2 periods, ending in 2025, are like nothing we’ve seen in the record. Humans have become an unnatural force of nature!.. 1/

And just now the new European Model El Niño plumes came out and are staggering - and average of +3C by year’s end! Would be the most intense El Niño on record, if it pans out.

ERA5 temperature and precipitation data are now out. For the Lower 48, the Nov-Apr period was not only the warmest Nov-Apr period of record (since 1940-41), but it was also the second driest. A tough combination for sure. 🥵🌵

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877… 1/

2027 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record for Earth - by a long shot - and perhaps even 2026 may reach a record too. That’s due to the big boost of heat released from El Niño, on top of the long term warming… 1/

Super interesting and it makes sense. AI models have problems predicting extremes outside of their training /pattern recognition of past events and of course as the Earth heats, extremes get more extreme… www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Why do we think this El Niño is gonna be a banger?! We can see it developing now. See that huge mass of subsurface heat - anomalies up to +8C/14F! That’s moving east and surfacing. That’ll be a big boost to El Niño. H/T Alex Boreham for his CyclonicWx site!

Floridians be Schvitz-ing! Before the cool front, and rain rolls in, super sultry air will make for some feels like temps near 100° for the first - of many - times this summer. The good news… 1/

Drought relief for millions as a hulking heatwave in the Pacific powers a rare May subtropical jetstream across the South. That means heavy rain in the Southeast and potential severe weather in #Florida This subtropical jet is an early preview.. 1/

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? That’s not hype, it’s the actual median forecast right now for the developing event later this year. It could rival — or even surpass — the legendary 1877 El Niño, the strongest on record, which was linked to widespread drought, monsoon failure, and food crises 1/

Heads up! Severe Sunday on tap for #Florida? It’s possible. A rare set-up for typically bone-dry early May. Double jet, with an invigorated subtropical jetstream fed by record warm Pacific waters - and a tropical connection, as well as a suppressed polar jetstream from a huge Canadian storm… 1/

A pet peeve of mine: “But remember, Andrew happened in an El Niño!” No it did not. El Niño had ended before August Aug 24, 1992. See the Nino 3.4 box… it had cooled already.. 1/

Big El Nino’s have a big impact on hurricane season!! So, what does this upcoming Strong El Niño mean for Hurricane Season? Here I take a short, in-depth look how the strongest El Nino’s changed the Atlantic hurricane season. You’ll be surprised how big a difference it makes!! #ElNino #Hurricane

To help illustrate how large an area is covered by record breaking temps, @cyclonicwx has a great graphic for this. Anything red or deeper is record territory. Huge area.

Huge Pacific Heatwave - larger than North America - with record heat spanning 6,000 miles across, peaking in the East Pacific. The highest anomalies are near the Galápagos Islands, a clear sign a mighty El Niño is beginning. 1/

Big El Nino’s make a big difference! With the big El Niño expected this summer, I compared the recent 5 strongest El Nino’s with the 5 strongest La Nina’s. First, take a look at close to home - Gulf and Caribbean. During strong El Nino’s it’s much less active… 1/

With the strong Pacific El Niño expected this summer-fall, what does that mean for Atlantic hurricane season? There’s no way to know for sure. But we can look to history to help. I looked at the 5 strongest El Niño episodes since 1972. It shows a substantial decrease in Atlantic activity… 1/

Good news seems to be a premium lately. So I say let’s lean into the good!!See the blues? This map is different from what you normally see… it subtracts the global ocean temp anomaly from the Atlantic anomaly. The result: the Atlantic is pretty cool - compared to the rest of the oceans… 1/

Going back 2000 years really brings our current warming into perspective. Carbon pollution is remaking our climate. Thanks @edhawkins.org for the great visual.

Science alert: 3D view of ongoing fires & smoke plumes explain why the smell of smoke is usually more potent in the morning. The US is off to its fastest fire season since at least 2012. Several large fires 🔥 are burning across Florida and Georgia. But wait, there’s more… 1/

It’s Earth Day 🌎 If we are being realistic and honest - which really is the least we can do - it’s very likely warmer today than anytime in the last 120,000 years. And, the global warming rate the past century - and especially the last 30 years - is “exponentially”… 1/

🔥 A rare “Critical Fire Weather” Risk issued for Central #Florida today. 🔥 Be safe everyone!

Critical #fire danger across #Florida today and Mother Nature says… No #Rain for you! Prospects for rain the next 10 days are bleak in most of the sunshine state. On the other hand much of the Southeast will cash in. They need it too. 100% of the SE is in #drought

🎥 We need to take #ClimateAction by choosing #climate resilient development pathways (2) Learn more📖 www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w... PL RP Thank you!🩷💚💙 graph from: ' #ClimateChange 2022 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' @ipcc.bsky.social #EndFossilFuels #SaveOurPlanet #SaveTheEarth #Klima

See the magenta in the middle of the map? That’s alert level 4 of 5 for bleaching in the #Galapagos. Common in El Niño where cool water upwelling slows/ stops and surface waters significantly warm. The sea surface temp anomaly is +3-4°C (~6°F). That’s why life suffers there every El Niño

🔥 High Fire Danger today and tomorrow in North & Central Florida. So far it’s the worst fire season in at least a decade, with 2.5X the average acreage burned and 1800 individual fires. With humidity as low as 25% and winds gusts 💨 to 30 mph, any sparks will ignite and spread fire rapidly… 1/

The #1 worst spring drought, so far, on record in US history! That’s where we find ourselves today. 100% of the Southeast is in #drought, 70% of the US, and 3/4 of #Florida in “extreme” drought. Lack or rain and the #1 warmest US year on record to date is how we got here…

The scope of how dry it’s been in the Southeast is remarkable! Every area in the darker shade of brown is the driest stretch on record. It’s the vast majority of the SE and N #florida. 100% of the SE is in drought… 83% severe or worse… 1/

The heatwave will peak today with multiple record highs expected… Sure it’s hot, but it’s not “unprecedented” heat for this time of year. These are the monthly April high temperature records for select cities all around #Florida. In many cases we’ll fall short by a few to several degrees #heatwave

Sweaty Saturday for Florida! Peak heat hits Saturday with afternoon feels like temps topping 95° near/ east of I-75 - away from the Gulf. I’m looking at you Tampa, Orlando, Lakeland, Gainesville, Ocala, Villages, North Port, Ft Myers, etc… 1/

Just how bad is this spring’s drought?? The worst in US History, going all the way back to the 1890s, even worse than Dust Bowl springs. And #Florida is among the worst in the nation… 1/

Record hot weekend ahead, but then it’s time for a cool change next week!! The 24-hour temp change from Sunday to Monday is 10-20°, with temps dropping from 90° into the 70s for many from a cool-gusty NE wind. #florida

The core of the #heatwave heads south and hits hardest on Friday & Saturday in Florida. It was 90 in NYC, Philly and DC yesterday. So what can we expect, how does this heatwave measure up to others in April and what’s the hottest it can get in April? Here’s the scoop… #florida

Upside down day… New York, Philly and DC were all hotter than Florida today!! The Big NE cities were in the low 90s, while most of #Florida was chilling in the 80s. There were dozens of daily high temp records set today in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England.