This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993. About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day. More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...

Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me. GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.

Western Pacific in focus today as Kalmaegi has caused devastating flooding in Philippines and a new depression looks likely to threaten Luzon as a super typhoon this weekend. Also highlight @michaelrlowry.bsky.social post about just how poor GFS has been this hurricane season. tinyurl.com/du2smex7

We're hiring for a Software Engineer @cira-csu.bsky.social! I can personally attest to the team that the candidate would be joining - they're knowledgeable, humble, and genuine. If you are interested or know anyone that might be, reach out to me! PD here: jobs.colostate.edu/postings/168...

Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.

And here is the same, but for all 13 storms in the entire season so far. "OFCL" is the NHC's forecast, and "GDMI" is the Google #DeepMind ensemble mean and is the leading model for both track and intensity this season. [2/3]

With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime. [1/3]

Glad there's a time change tonight

Unbelievable. This game.

Game-tying home runs to tie a game in the 9th inning of World Series Game 7: Miguel Rojas tonight End of list!

Holy smokes! Clinch!

Wow! Blue Jays playing with some 🔥 🔥

There's a decent chance that HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER. Hostile upper winds are increasingly dominating the tropics. If this is it, the season ends with near normal numbers EXCEPT for 3 Category 5's including Melissa, which was stunningly and tragically off the charts. More at HurricaneIntel.com

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

Melissa lifted the 2025 hurricane season to above average levels, sealing yet another comeback season after a bizarre peak-season drought. Bermuda saw winds to hurricane strength overnight, but today we finally bid Melissa adieu as it turns extratropical.

A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.

I pack today's newsletter full of spectacular visuals of Melissa from @cira-csu.bsky.social and dig deep on why what they show us matters. "Superintensity," "phytoplankton," and "chlorophyll a" aren't typically part of the hurricane discussion, but they are today. ⬇️

Viewed by #CopernicusEU Sentinel satellites, hurricane #Melissa seen over the Caribbean, currently the strongest tropical cyclone of the year worldwide. Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe. @noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa: ↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp ↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite ↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths ↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath ⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.

Saw something very similar after Hurricane Ian in 2022. New NOAA-funded research published in March found this sort of upwelling from strong hurricanes (causing the aquamarine color) and engorged river runoff stimulate phytoplankton blooms, leading to severe red tide outbreaks.

A lot of jaw-dropping satellite loops of Melissa the past day or two, but this one might take top prize. If Dakota hadn't posted this, I might have called AI shenanigans. Surreal.

NEW: Devastating imagery from Jamaica, before & after Category 5 Hurricane Melissa. Black River — near total destruction.

Melissa proved to be not only one of the strongest hurricanes on record, but one of the most durable and resilient Category 5s we've ever seen. In today's newsletter, I discuss why it stayed so strong for so long as where Melissa's headed next. ⬇️

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at 185 knots for #Melissa -- which, according to the developer at CIMSS, is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone.

NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.

This is heartbreaking & heartwarming in equal measure. The courage and kindness of many of my fellow Americans has been sustaining these past few months. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/c...

So much news today with Hurricane Melissa. Between wall-to-wall on-air coverage, I've managed to also pull together a special late edition of the daily newsletter, including everything we know so far about Melissa. My heart is with all those affected.

With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.

Melissa's pressure now down to 896 mb, making it the 5th most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure). With winds now at 180 mph, Melissa will be the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane since Dorian in 2019. A worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica.

Melissa looking pretty much the same as last night. Cloud tops cooling steadily again, raw Dvorak back up to 8.2!!

Hurricane feed by @michaelrlowry.bsky.social #melissa bsky.app/profile/did:...

Melissa is Jamaica-bound as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The forecast is as dire as it gets. Preparations to protect life and property across the island should be rushed to completion. Melissa threatens to be the worst Jamaica's ever experienced ⬇️

8.3!! And an *average* cloud temp of -80C! This is an astronomical satellite intensity estimate.

For the late-night Dvorak historians in the audience, have we ever observed a T 8.2 in the Atlantic? Melissa looking more like a West-Pacific-grade super typhoon tonight.

NOAA hurricane hunters flying aboard a P-3 Orion aircraft ("Kermit") are monitoring Hurricane Melissa as most aircraft steer clear. The storm poses a catastrophic threat to Jamaica and Haiti. The crew are among the many federal workers working without pay during the US government shutdown.

A jaw-dropping view of the sun setting on Hurricane Melissa tonight. Melissa continues its approach to Jamaica as a powerful, major hurricane.

Hurricane #Melissa Advisory 22A: Life-Threatening and Catastrophic Flash Flooding and Landslides Expected in Portions of Jamaica and Southern Hispaniola Through Midweek With Hurricane Force Winds Likely to Begin Tomorrow. http://hurricanes.gov

Hurricane #Melissa ADVISORY 22 issued. Hurricane #Melissa resumes intensifying. Link

Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22 ...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY T... Additional Details Here.

#Melissa's satellite presentation has become quite impressive this afternoon, with a more symmetric, cold CDO, and a warming, drying eye. Suggests continued strengthening is occurring. Will be interesting to see just how much it's deepening from recon soon

The latest pass through Melissa's eye just now (from north to southeast) by Air Force Hurricane Hunters measuring the lowest pressures and highest winds of any mission into Melissa yet. Pressures down to 942 mb. Still on a strengthening trend.

Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 19 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MELISSA IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND ... Additional Details Here.

Hurricane #Melissa ADVISORY 19 issued. Noaa and air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft report that #Melissa is now a major hurricane. Link

Latest NOAA dropsonde and flight-level data indicate Hurricane Melissa is likely a major, Category 3 storm. Rapid intensification will continue overnight and wouldn’t surprise me if we are waking up to a monster tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Melissa's catastrophic hazards in Jamaica 👇 🌀 Wind gusts to 160+ mph ⛈️ Rainfall totaling 30-40 in (750-1000 mm), accompanied by treacherous landslides 🌊 Storm surge flooding up to 13 ft (4 m) above ground along the south coast, worsened by large, destructive waves

NHC now explicitly calls for Melissa to reach category 5 intensity before striking Jamaica. The addition of Google DeepMind’s FNV3 ensemble this year bolstered forecast confidence in extreme intensification — it’s doubtful the NHC forecast would’ve been this aggressive without FNV3.

Update: The long-awaited rapid strengthening of #Melissa is now under way. As of 5 p.m. EDT Sat, the National Hurricane Center is predicting that Melissa will be a *Category 5* hurricane by Monday. www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...

The National Hurricane Center now forecasts Melissa to reach Category 5 strength before striking Jamaica head on late Monday or early Tuesday. An exceedingly dire, catastrophic forecast unfolding as Melissa crawls and rapidly intensifies on the doorstep of Jamaica.