Still in awe of interstate-induced cliuds. Somewhat validates a career of research we have done on how cities affect clouds, rainfall and lightning...My explanation here www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

Models aren't biting just yet, but it's worth watching the western Caribbean and southern Gulf come late next week as the Central American Gyre ramps up, enhancing storminess on the Atlantic side. Wind shear may slacken enough to open a window. More ⬇️

Typhoon Jangmi had an awesome mesovortex over the weekend.

In today's newsletter, I discuss where we might expect to see tropical development for the first half of June. Long range models are mostly mum for now, but we'll see if a weaker MJO pulse changes that tune by mid month. More ⬇️

With the beginning of the 2026 hurricane season comes a new face at the helm of Yale Climate Connections' hurricane season coverage: Irene Sans, who will be anchoring our coverage this year! Bob Henson and I will also continue to contribute. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/2026...

The daily tropical newsletter is back for its 5th hurricane season. I distribute this to subscribers each weekday morning and on weekends when conditions warrant. Today it's all about how the potentially historic El Niño could shape the season. ⬇️

Typhoon #Jangmi shows off its huge swirling eye at sunrise, 110 km / 70 miles across. #台風6号

You probably haven't heard from us much since we began our Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15--because the Atlantic has so far been quiet! Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days as approach the first official day of hurricane season on Monday, June 1. ... 🔗 hurricanes.gov

The updated ENSO forecast from May is out, and the mean of the dynamic models peaks in amplitude right around +2.2°C this winter. The ensemble spread spans anywhere from a moderate #ElNiño to a record-breaking one. Stick with the average. For context, the 2015-16 El Niño peaked at around +2.6°C.

Hello friends, just a note that I have been steadily adding features over the last month+ to TC-ATLAS. This includes a real-time monitoring page for synoptic, subseasonal, and seasonal aspects. Examples attached. Check out more here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/rea...

An epic webcam capture of the sun skirting the horizon at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, this morning. @alaskawx.bsky.social

One "good" thing about the Southeast drought: it's largely diverted the severe weather away from what is typically a volatile month in the Southeast.

DYK that @noaa.gov estimates how much rainfall you would probably need in order to end drought? www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

This is a behemoth.

2.5-minute #Himawari9 Infrared images showed Super Typhoon #Sinlaku after it had rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm (as of 1200 UTC), southeast of Guam and the Mariana Islands. cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...

Super Typhoon #Sinlaku is now a Category 5-equivalent storm in the Western Pacific and may affect Guam / Northern Mariana Islands. Per JTWC: This is just the 10th known Category 5 storm in the basin prior to May 1 since 1945. A sign of things to come if a strong El Niño develops by peak season?

After an impressive bout of RI, #Sinlaku looks much different at sunset than at sunrise. Classic super typhoon look now

T8.0

We need to talk a bit about how utterly absurd the March heatwave was in the USA. This heatwave would have been impossible without a boost from climate change, but even with climate change it remains a deeply unlikely event. A thread looking at some of the numbers. 🧵

Thank you to the National Tropical Weather Conference for the warm hospitality on South Padre Island! I've been coming to this meeting since it began nearly 15 years ago. Simply the best annual meeting of hurricane minds. Always great catching up with old friends and colleagues.

The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific. A fascinating evolution and interaction.

"The 1965 hurricane season saw a strong El Niño in the Pacific and below average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The season recorded only one major hurricane, but that storm was Billion Dollar Betsy, the first-ever billion-dollar storm that wreaked havoc on South Florida and southern Louisiana."

The first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook was just issued by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the team @csuatmossci.bsky.social. Overall activity could be the lowest since 2015 if a supercharged El Niño emerges. April bookends are wide, however. My deep dive ⬇️

Drought a huge concern this summer. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) by state for March 2026 had 6 states with their worst drought on record, with 22 others experiencing a top-10 worst drought. Only Michigan had an above-average lack of drought. From: www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

The @noaa.gov data is in. March 2026 was 9.35 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century normal across the U.S., the warmest March in more than 130 years of records. California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas were all record warm.

News: WH released proposed FY27 budget, continuing to push plan to eliminate NOAA Research and massively cut Earth sciences - while NOAA grant data for FY2026 shows only 7 new grants so far compared to 379 in FY2025, further evidence of curtailed science budget execution. tinyurl.com/5e3ptub2

Absolutely breathtaking view of the Artemis II launch. Wow.

A super-strength westerly wind burst is predicted for late next week, accompanied by twin tropical cyclones in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which should push us well on the way to El Niño. Huge 850 mb wind anomalies in excess of 15 m/s (33 mph) predicted near the Dateline.

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Latest US Census Bureau county level population data for 2025 has been released. Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina counties continue to see the fastest numeric levels of growth. Surprise? Pinellas / Miami-Dade counties in Florida rank #2 and #3 for biggest year-over-year numeric declines.

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out 2 new products for 2026: an updated track cone showing inland watches/warnings, and new storm surge alerts for Hawaii. Learn more about these improvements: www.noaa.gov/news-release...

National high and low by date. The recent spike in heat with the 112 degree March record stands out.

Incredibly, even *more* locations across U.S. are today experiencing their warmest March temperatures on record--many by a wide margin, with some even breaking April records. This includes most or all of: AZ, UT, CO, NM, WY, NE, KS, MO, IA, plus portions of many other states. 🫠

Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little. ➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change. polarwx.com/models/

...And, again today, a huge swath of the continental United States clear across from the Pacific Coast to Mississippi River is experiencing all-time March monthly record heat. Some locations are so hot that they are actually exceeding *April* all-time record highs. Incredible.

A new US nat'l March heat record was likely established on Thursday as dozens of monthly records fell, with record heat expected to persist for days. Meanwhile, Hawai'i is facing another kona low onslaught with "catastrophic" flash flooding reported in northern O'ahu. tinyurl.com/hxjjswr8

A particularly dangerous situation flash flood warning is in effect in northern Oahu where “catastrophic flooding is occurring.” More than 13 inches of rain has fallen since Thursday evening alone. www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...

btw the last gust stronger at National Airport was 70 mph in the derecho of 2012. power pole reported down in Alexandria. widespread 60+ on mesonet/faa/noaa stations.

BREAKING: University Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) files suit against NSF, OMB, NOAA and DOC to halt alleged "violations of the Constitution and Administrative Procedure Act" undertaken by agencies to dismantle Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Just in: UCAR has filed a lawsuit against NSF, the Commerce Dept, NOAA, and OMB to prevent the dismantling of NCAR, alleging "violations of the Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act."

On the CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook (for March 19-23), 33.4% of the Lower 48 has a >90% chance of being in the warmest temperature tercile. The 33.4% number is the 5th largest on record for this product and the highest percentage in 9 years (since Feb 13, 2017 issuance).

Interestingly, end of last week the Joint Typhoon warning center had a service advisory up saying that they were cutting forecast frequency in half in most of the Southern Hemisphere. Today advisory is gone. Does anyone know if that means they rescinded the change or just took down the notice??

Seeing this ENSO forecast shared a bit. Let me put my ENSO hat on for a sec to say a couple things. 1. This uses a 1981-2010 climo which will boost the anomaly numbers. 2. This doesn't use the Relative Oceanic Nino index (RONI), which would slash these anomaly numbers by, my guess, 0.5C 1/2

Quite the cute little MCV over the Gulf today.

Breaking News: Scientists have been using methods that underestimated how high sea levels already are, a new study found. One result is that hundreds of millions more people are already living dangerously close to the rising ocean than Western scientists had previously estimated.

ICYMI: Recent extended freezes in Florida have led to an estimated $3.17 billion in damage to crops in the state. This ranks among the most damaging agricultural hits to Florida from freeze conditions on record. content.govdelivery.com/attachments/...

December 2025 through February 2026 was the 2nd warmest winter on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to Prism climate data. The widespread record to near record warmth in the west easily outweighed the cool temps in the east. 🔥🔥🔥

Some personal news :)

Some highlights: -Authorizes appropriations for five years for OAR’s weather labs and cooperative institutes, plus related weather research efforts. -Renews and authorizes appropriations for five years for VORTEX-USA. -Furthers HFIP, with a renewed emphasis on social sciences. (1/n)

The NHC post-analysis report for #HurricaneMelissa is out now. Estimated maximum sustained winds were nudged upwards to 190 mph at #Melissa's peak, tying Hurricane Allen (1980) for the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.