In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

At the UN today Trump called climate change the ‘greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.’ Congrats to the clever plotters for enlisting the planet’s glaciers, oceans and forests in their scheme.

It's not your imagination: Wildfire smoke in the U.S. has dramatically worsened since 2019. According to a new study, it's already killing 41,000 people a year - and it's poised to get much worse. new from me @johnmuyskens.bsky.social and @sadbumblebee.buzz www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Climate models are imperfect tools. They will be wrong sometimes. And sometimes, climate changes will be even faster or larger than the models predicted.

The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records. And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected. A short thread 🧵

Very cool.

Measles vaccination had a good run in the US. Reducing measles from 100s of thousands of cases per year in the 1940s, to mere dozens per year in the 2000s. Shameful to see it rebound. In a more sensible world, we'd all be pushing for global eradication of measles.

Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out. Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.

Great article in the NYTimes about our comment to the DOE about their climate report. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/02/c...

Twitter downranking posts with outbound links is not new, but it is still such an ugly move. Scientists will get better engagement posting their reports here.

The open water route along through the Arctic Ocean along the Russian Coast opened in early August this year. That puts it among the Top 5 earliest opening dates, though still weeks behind the record set in 2020. Prior to 2005, such open water passages rarely occurred at all.

Incredible growth in the scale of devastating Iberian Peninsula #wildfires through mid-August reflected in #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS estimated fire emissions with Spain reaching it's highest annual total of past 23 years (& Portugal's since 2017) @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int #IIFF

Sean Duffy, Acting Chief of NASA: "All the climate science ... we’re going to move aside, and all of the science that we do is going to be directed towards exploration ... That’s why we have NASA, to explore, not to do all of these Earth sciences." arstechnica.com/space/2025/0...

Trump's budget proposal for NASA zeros out the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2 & 3), which would mean an early end to tools that provide detailed information on carbon dioxide emissions and plant growth. npr.org/2025/08/04/n... Congress could still save these programs.

the USA built a system of higher education so good that smart/rich people from across the world came here, spending billions to learn here, subsidizing education for Americans while spending money to live in our cities and towns. our government arbitrarily decided we should stop doing that

The public comment period on the US EPA's plan to stop regulating greenhouse gases is open until 9/15. regulations.gov/docket/EPA-H... In addition, the DOE's recent climate report (used to argue that carbon dioxide is not so bad) will take comments until 9/2. regulations.gov/document/DOE...

I have a new post over at The Climate Brink on how the recent DOE report on climate science and the EPA's proposed overturning of the endangerment finding used and misused my research: www.theclimatebrink....

Motherfucking wind farms…

For all the sea ice nerds, NSIDC has announced a new version of the sea ice index that replaces SSMIS data with AMSR2 (starting Jan 1, 2025 and continuing for all future updates). This new dataset was developed in response to the plans to kill SSMIS. nsidc.org/data/user-re...

🚨 If you're interested in working on a coordinated response to the DOE climate report, please enter your info on this google form 🚨 Please RT this so as many people see it as possible. forms.gle/BL9xUAfRxA...

I've been taking some time to dive into the US EPA's Proposal to revoke the Endangerment Finding related to Greenhouse Gases. epa.gov/system/files... They put forth multiple lines of argument about why the current administration believes this should happen. 🧵

I've been taking some time to dive into the US EPA's Proposal to revoke the Endangerment Finding related to Greenhouse Gases. epa.gov/system/files... They put forth multiple lines of argument about why the current administration believes this should happen. 🧵

It is rather remarkable that one would write a report on the "Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate" and never once bother to show either measured historical or projected future changes in US mean temperature. Here's such a plot from the NCA for reference.

2025 has seen the second warmest first half of the year on record after 2024 – and is on track to be the second or third warmest year since records began in 1850. My latest State of the Climate report over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

The Climate Working Group of the Trump Administration has issued their first climate report and it's a doozy. These are likely many of the arguments that they intend to make for why, in the new government's opinion, carbon dioxide doesn't need to be regulated. www.energy.gov/topics/climate

#Breaking: Just got off the phone with a NOAA spokesperson. DOD has stated that SSMIS microwave scans will be made available to NOAA through the end of the satellites’ lifespan and until the replacement instrument’s data comes online.

In most of the world day-to-day weather variations are still much larger than long-term global warming. As a result, both daily record highs and daily record lows remain common. However as the world warms, new daily record highs consistently far outnumber new daily record lows. 🧪

If you spend enough time talking about climate change, sooner or later someone will show station counts from the obsolete GHCN-M v3 and argue the number of weather stations has declined >50% since 1980. That's an artifact of how GHCN-M v3 was constructed, and not all stations.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center is reducing Arctic sea ice expert analyses due to NASA funding cuts. #Arctic #SeaIce #akwx @zacklabe.com @seaice.de @climatologist49.bsky.social

One solar panel can, over its lifetime, harness enough energy to manufacture ~20 more solar panels. The materials required are cheap and abundant. This sets up a virtuous cycle where any country with suitable manufacturing expertise can exponentially grow their solar capacity.

Temperature Update for June 2025 Third warmest June in the instrumental record. Similar conditions to May, but sharply cooler than earlier in 2025. Neutral conditions in the Pacific. 2025 is very likely to be the 2nd or 3rd warmest year. berkeleyearth.org/june-2025-te... 🧵

Now only two hours away. See you there.

Some people are suddenly very opposed to cloud seeding and all forms of weather modification. Boy, are those people going to be upset when they realize how fossil fuel burning has been changing the composition of the atmosphere and modifying the weather for everyone.

The ongoing measles outbreak in the USA has swelled to 1288 cases. Despite 2025 being barely half over, this is already more cases than any full year since 1992. This year, 162 measles patients have required hospitalization and 3 have died.

NOAA Climate and Global Change fellows were furloughed this week. One of many losses.

Join @rarohde.bsky.social, @hausfath.bsky.social and the Berkeley Earth team this Thurs 7/10 at 8am PDT/5pm CET for our next monthly press briefing featuring updates and insights from our June 2025 Temperature Update. 🔗 To register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Don't worry. Now that Trump is in charge, no one will have to hear about new billion dollar weather disasters in the US. Trump killed the program that compiles these statistics.

The Western Mediterranean has been record warm recently, shown here for the June averages from ERA5. This much warmth in the Mediterranean may predict a brutally hot summer for Europe. 1/ 🧵🧪🌊

The Big Beautiful Bill adds new limits on Federal student loans. Grad school: $20,500 / yr and $100,000 total. Med / Law school: $50,000 / yr and $200,000 total. Students in the most expensive programs may be forced to supplement with more expensive private loans.

The Texas flash flood is terrible, and also all too familiar. 10" (25 cm) of rain fell, and the river rose 26 ft (8 m) in only 45 minutes. We need to get better at evacuating vulnerable areas in advance of heavy rain, because these events will increase. apnews.com/article/texa...

Happy 4th of July to everyone who still dreams of an America committed to equality and freedom, with liberty and justice for all.

If Trump issued an updated carbon emissions target for the USA (he won't), I'm pretty sure his preferred curve would actually go upward.

NEW – Chart: Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ blows US emissions goal by 7bn tonnes | @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social Ho Woo Nam Read here: buff.ly/l700teP

Berkeley Earth's next monthly climate briefing, looking back on June temperatures, will be held online on July 10th at 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... It's open for anyone, but geared toward the news media. See you there.

We need energy for basically everything, and many people on Earth need more energy than they have now. The goal is not energy poverty, but a clean energy transition. Solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, etc. There is now a whole menu of clean energy options to use.

While Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill was huge, it's focus was taxes and mandatory spending programs. There are still at least a dozen departmental appropriations bills to consider this year, including the one that will potentially slash NOAA. That fight and others sre still to come.

Summer has always been hot, but it is hotter now than at any point since widespread measurements began.

Man-made climate change is real, even if the current US government would rather pretend that it is not. apnews.com/article/clim...

It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️

If they close all these research labs, you can't just undo it four years later. Decades of expertise and tons of specialized equipment will be scattered to the wind. Rebuilding would take ages.