New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: github.com/chrisroadmap...

The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.

This is the only parody song about geophysical fluid dynamics you’ll ever need: urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...

Beautiful analysis once again @hausfath.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...

I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.

The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete! Also collected into a nice e-book! kids.frontiersin.org/collections/... Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids

🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris). #IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction

#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections. Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍 📩 Abstract submissions are open. 🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612

⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract) #EGU26 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different. Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.

Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end

Carbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissi...

Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏

How to contribute to fair: ✅submit a pull request ✅wait 6 months ✅track me down in person and remind me to review it v2.2.3 now available at the usual places. pypi.org/project/fair anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair

RFMIP2 preprint now out! egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex

flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

Now that it's public, I'm very honoured to be selected as Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5, Working Group I for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report 📚🌍 Our chapter is one hell of a team! Full author list for all three working groups: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

A deep dive into the world of simple climate models: preprint out from @arp-climate.bsky.social. we know this isn't exhaustive - we focus on the models that participated in RCMIP phases 1 and 2. There will be a phase 3, coming soon.

We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20... Session ID #4

Including a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Hello world, who else is in Vienna this week?

Please get in touch with Team @carbonbrief.org if you're in Bonn this week – @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org + @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social have just arrived

In this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

I'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration!

Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting: 🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change 🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance 🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!

New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳 Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9

To all of my friends in Oslo, I am presenting at the Joint Oslo Seminar tomorrow at UiO! It will be the full-fat version of my EGU talk: Updated IPCC emissions scenarios no longer limit warming to 1.5°C Details 👇 www.mn.uio.no/geo/english/...

Very excited to announce that the call for abstracts for our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference is out. Join us to explore the eightfold path to manage climate risks of an overshoot world: overshootconference.org Abstract deadline: June 27.

The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

Here's @arp-climate.bsky.social presenting on the upcoming process-based carbon cycle in FaIR at #EGU25!

Is 1.5°C still within reach? Find out tomorrow (Tuesday) at #EGU25 09:15, room 0.31/32, session CL3.2.1 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...

Some of the WorldTrans crew at EGU25 with Axel's poster 👏

New preprint: differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions explained essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

awesome study, and fair is all over it (cheers for the shout out @ccallahan45.bsky.social!)

🎡 ✨🚢 Next week, at EGU-2025, I will be co-chairing a session on shipping-related emissions. The session will feature contributions on a range of topics, including emission inventories, radiative impacts, in-situ measurements, weather routing, and agentic AI. More at 👉 lnkd.in/dyYwiN-v @cjsmith.be

Starting to think I might be the only person left on planet Earth who still believes that Hunga Tonga is (and continues to be) a net positive climate forcer. Should probably write a paper

Hi Bluesky! 👋 I'll get the ball rolling by sharing a paper I contributed to and has recently been published in GMD: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/.... We took a look at carbon and nitrogen data from CMIP6 climate models and found some significant mass imbalances in the reported data.

NEW – Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @setupelz.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social Read here:

Scenarios Forum 2025: abstract submission deadline extended until 7 April scenariosforum.org/call-for-abs...

Future climate scenarios don't include actual potential future volcanic eruptions. In a paper led by May Chim, we fixed that. The summary is that including volcanoes increases the uncertainty in climate projections in the near term (think a 4th colour in Hawkins & Sutton) doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Very good. To note, our 2019 @autofac.bsky.social et al. paper explored EPC fair share Paris-aligned carbon debt framing for Ireland, concluding "we suggest that this methodology, and its CO2 debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions." doi.org/10.1007/s110...

What's the fairest way to deal with the (inevitable) overshoot of 1.5°C? New paper led by @setupelz.bsky.social explores the concept of "net zero carbon debt" Here's the VUB press release: press.vub.ac.be/who-is-respo...

This is behind a paywall :( but a critical reminder that climate change is a cause of increased energy demand (particularly for cooling), an effect that most climate scenarios do not include www.ft.com/content/4d4f...