Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

📈COP delivers stock market boost for ‘green’ companies but renewables unaffected, Imperial College London study shows 🧵 Read it here: ow.ly/o6xY50XnEuH

Something that's worth flagging about this report is the subtle pivot from "current policy" being the worst-case scenario to including discussions of backsliding. Most calculations presented include the USA meeting its new-but-Biden-era NDC commitments, which will formally elapse in Jan.

NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century. The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope. According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...

There's an informative paper by Bossy et al out today, probing the emissions pathways compatible with keeping earth within five different planetary boundaries: www.nature.com/articles/s41... I wrote a little context-setting piece about it, which you can find here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

In case anyone is wondering why I'm up and tweeting at 2am, my attempted veganisation of the recipe for Paradise Pumpkin Pie takes a million years to set but hopefully has fully caramelised now

Giving a talk at TechUK tomorrow on the latest in climate science and emissions for their Tech and Net Zero conference www.techuk.org/what-we-deli...

I'll do a little talk about the science of carbon budgets before a team of dancers lead by Eleonora Moratto and her team of dancers reinterpret science in ballet at this free event: www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/events/livin...

Performing at the Patras World Poetry Festival this week - quite a lot of it should be livestreamed in case people want to see it abroad! pwpf.gr

Sharing our new paper in #NatureCommunications on solar-based mini-grids interconnecting with national grids can boost reliability, cut costs + emissions, and reduce the risk of asset stranding, co-led by @benwinchester.bsky.social & with @shivmit.bsky.social, + others! @natureportfolio.nature.com

🙌Imperial has more authors contributing to a crucial climate report than any other organisation in the world. Once finished, the IPCC Assessment Report 7 (AR7) report will help shape policies to tackle climate change throughout the 2030s 🧵 📰 ow.ly/BlYz50WIMpk

What's the best tiramisu recipe? Can people tell if you make vegan versions? We ran an "experiment" to find out. scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2025/08/15/a...

Honoured to be selected as a lead author in the upcoming IPCC report chapter on scenarios and projected temperatures (AR7 WG1 Ch5) - looks like we'll have a great team! For the complete list of authors, see apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

If 1.5°C warming is the safety line and 2°C the cliff edge, how far into the danger zone can we go? @joerirogelj.bsky.social and @robinlamboll.bsky.social say we need a clearer, stricter upper limit, around 1.7°C, to guide policy beyond 1.5°C The question: how close to the edge is too close?

Last summer I visited my cousin's wedding in Vanuatu, an intricate and fascinating event which involved a fairly high fraction of all living speakers of the endangered language Mele. I've written a description of events here: scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2025/07/21/m...

Here's a little article on what the very small carbon budget means about 1.5C and what happens after we get there. www.livescience.com/planet-earth...

I'll be at Scenarios Forum in Leeds from tonight - let me know if you want to meet up to discuss things!

More frequent & intense heatwaves are already having a measurable effect on the UK's economy. Workers' health is not sufficiently protected, affecting productivity & putting pressure on health services. We need adaptation + investment in a low-carbon economy & an equitable transition to net zero.

⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began. This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1

In case anyone is confused by the different headlines on carbon budgets today, the Guardian's 2 years value is based on a 66% chance, the 3 years comes from a 50% chance.

Over the weekend I talked to people at Elmbridge's citizen's assembly, giving an introduction to climate change suitable for a general audience which included several climate change skeptics. I thought I'd share some principles I work from when giving these sorts of talks:

🧪 Lead author Hamish Beath explains our paper with a system for evaluating scenarios for climate action in a thread here:

Dr Eleonora Moratto will show us how ballet can be used to tell science stories at the Great Exhibition Road Festival! Featuring nature and climate research by her, @mattcscience.bsky.social, @morenamills.bsky.social and me! www.greatexhibitionroadfestival.co.uk/event/dancin...

I'll be doing poetry with the deeply evocative Fiona Broadhurst at Homebrew Poetry next Wednesday. It will be the last instance of Homebrew for a while, so if you've been meaning to visit now is a good time to go! www.eventbrite.com/e/homebrew-p...

What is "carbon debt" and who is responsible for overshooting climate targets? A short blog: granthaminstitute.com/2025/04/09/w... based on research in www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... (with @setupelz.bsky.social, @cjsmith.be, @gidden.bsky.social, @wimthiery.bsky.social, @joerirogelj.bsky.social etc.)

NEW – Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @setupelz.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social Read here:

Got a green idea? Gain skills to see if it can evolve into a successful startup - apply now for Climate Launchpad! Don’t worry if you don’t have a business plan just yet, or if your idea is still on the back of a napkin. Apply before the UK deadline on 5 May ➡️ climatelaunchpad.org/application-...

This Friday I'm headlining Slamden (sober metal poetry)! ravenrecordshop.com/product/slam... At the same time, the lovely @beesmade.bsky.social will be launching her new book online: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/allographi... I wrote a poem inspired by a poem of hers: stepawaymagazine.com/archives/5627

📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵

I gave a few comments for this article in terms of the alignment of government promises with the 1.5C target: www.climatechangenews.com/2025/03/12/r...

There is a new study out in Nature about the Atlantic overturning circulation. I will be curious to see the media reporting on this. If you wonder why, read my blog article on it! 🌊 www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

"every £1 of value generated by the net zero economy creating an additional £1.89 in the wider economy... for every job supported by net zero businesses, a further 2.5 jobs are supported in the wider economy." eciu.net/analysis/rep...

Mid-Friday riddle: what "doesn't have any nasty surprises" and is not "particularly inspiring" ❓ Our @ic-cep.bsky.social researchers @robinlamboll.bsky.social and @joerirogelj.bsky.social comment UK Government’s climate action plans for the next five years 🔽 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"You can't solve climate change with one country going on its own" On DW News, @robinlamboll.bsky.social discusses the US exit from the #ParisAgreement, risks to the green economy, and how other nations can seize this moment to lead the renewable energy transition

Considerations of fairness in mitigation efforts can get complicated (see earlier post), especially when we look beyond CO₂. In a new paper led by Mingyu Li, we propose an approach to address this, allocating a remaining 'global warming budget' to countries in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals.

"We really need to bring emissions down in the short term because these feedback loops make it harder in the long term to stay below the [1.5°C] target" @robinlamboll.bsky.social on record-high CO₂ emissions and the urgency for action, via @itvnews.bsky.social (🎥2:03 onwards)

💬Countries have agreed to the 1.5°C global warming limit not out of convenience but out of necessity to limit harm and suffering of people. Read Prof. @joerirogelj.bsky.social & Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social's comments after @metoffice.bsky.social's latest warning regarding rising CO2 levels 🧵

Normally discussing the water requirements of plant milks is a distraction from real issues, but in this ONE INSTANCE

How much we can still emit while remaining 50% likely to stay below 1.5C long-term (the remaining carbon budget, in light blue) from 2025, compared to what we've already emitted and the mass of carbon in various lifeforms (from Bar-On et al. 2018).

I find it interesting that there is practically universal anger at Christmas decorations going up before Dec, but practically nothing against taking them down pre-12th night, or leaving them up late. The liturgical start of advent (4th Sunday before) is almost unmarked in this discussion.

People need to plan for climate risks. The research is there, but the usability for stakeholders can be limited. We introduce the reversal of the impact chain approach for actionable climate information that allows linking local risk levels directly to GHG emission. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

If you're interested in energy/climate you've probably heard the nugget that "kerosene/crude oil helped save the whales", by reducing demand for whale oil in lanterns. I've even trotted it out myself🤦‍♂️ But it turns out it's NOT true. Here's what actually happened edconway.substack.com/p/no-kerosen...

We welcome the new House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee report on methane, which cites Imperial experts Professor Joeri Rogelj, Dr Semra Bakkaloglu and Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social, including calls for the UK to increase int'l engagement on methane. 📰https://ow.ly/U6pc50UpKoI

This evening we'll show Abi Palmer's video series teaching indoor cats about weather and discuss its links to climate change at Imperial Lates: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/imperial-l... Plus on Saturday, a drag biography of the nuclear physicist Lise Meitner www.vaginamuseum.co.uk/events/event...

Finally saw Wicked. It's very good, but a bit unrealistic how people casually break out into speech when they're in the middle of a song. Also, it could have used more explanations of general relativity. www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYmL...

On the 5th of December, we're hosting the amazing Abi Palmer's sensory video series explaining what weather is to her indoor cats! There's also a panel with her, me and extreme weather attribution/adaptation scientists discussing what this is all a metaphor for www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/imperial-l...

Zoom should also offer an anti -premium package, where all of your meetings end after 40 mins even if the host has premium.

(but that's not the baseline used in all the damage calculations you've read, it's still only 1.31C over that)

Some colleagues and I published a short explainer on the role of methane mitigation for the Paris Agreement: www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...