Summer temperatures have strongly been influenced by circulation changes in the northern mid-latitudes. In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part. wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...

[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions. berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...

Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.

🌡️ 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, with a global average temperature 0.59°C above the 1991–2020 average & 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. It was 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year on record, and only 0.01°C cooler than 2023. @ecmwf.int ⬇️

The ESM forcing files for #CMIP7 #ScenarioMIP are now up on the Earth System Grid for the two advanced-priority scenarios High (H) and Very Low (VL). CMIP7 H is significantly lower emissions than CMIP6's SSP585 - and VL has more radical near-term decarbonisation than anything we had in CMIP6.

🙀 Don't forget to submit your abstract for #EGU26 And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻 www.egu26.eu/session/56938

I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26 www.egu26.eu/session/56938 ... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with @mittermeierm.bsky.social Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé

Interesting update on SSTs and the state of warming:

2025 was again a severe #hurricane season with 4 major hurricanes (3 cat 5 hurricanes). In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season. Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪

I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26 www.egu26.eu/session/56938 ... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with @mittermeierm.bsky.social Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé

.. and as a fundamental innovation also enabling us to investigate compound hazards. Great work @shrutinath97.bsky.social @carlschleussner.bsky.social @klimapeter.bsky.social J. Carreau & P. Naveau @iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu

Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by @shrutinath97.bsky.social agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

“Heat pumps are superior in efficiency to condensing boilers, even if the heat pumps are powered by electricity from a power station burning natural gas.” Not me saying that but the late Prof Sir David MacKay. More in my @carbonbrief.org article 👇 interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...

Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot? --> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

Hurricanes feed off of warm water. Watch how quickly the eye of #Melissa collapsed as it moved onto land and over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, and how quickly it is reforming now that it has moved back over water! I will be adding this radar loop to my earth science lectures.

To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc... "Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."

#Melissa is now the strongest #hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, and it continues to deepen. Pressure has fallen to 913mb. There’s evidence to suggest it is already even stronger than 160 mph winds. It’s possible that will be adjusted upward soon.

Vorschieben, Frauen & Mädchen schützen zu wollen, als würde sexualisierte Gewalt vor allem von Migranten ausgehen, ist so hanebüchen wie perfide. Es ist rassistisch und misogyn zugleich - und eine klassische Erzählung von Rechtsextremen, die im Übrigen nicht auf "Schutz", sondern Besitzanspruch fußt

So exhausting..

"After nearly 40 years, the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, or ARCUS, will close September 30." "The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States funded programs that aided Indigenous communities and tracked melting sea ice, among dozens of initiatives."

#Humberto is now a Cat 5! It’s the first time in nearly a century with back to back seasons with Cat 5’s in the Atlantic. We are seeing our warmer future unfold in real-time, IMO. 1/

For years climate change research has shown that seasons would struggle with stability issues, perhaps even with less storms, but when a storm breaks through, it is much more likely to rapidly intensify to a top tier hurricane due to heated water. 2/

New study on the impact of aerosol forcing on heat wave attribution by Florian Kraulich ( @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social and me ) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

More systematic rapid attribution taking the expertise of health experts onboard. Heat might be a silent killer, but it is here and most excess deaths are now attributable to human-induced climate change (70% on average).

flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

It's scary how fast the earth is warming. For a long time, the 🌊 ocean surface was warming at a slower 🐌 rate but the warming rate appears to have caught up 🐇. ➡️ In our study about the jump in SSTs, we also estimated a 0.27°C per decade warming of global SSTs (www.nature.com/articles/s41...)

🎉 Thrilled to announce Episode 1 of the Overshoot Conference Podcast is now live! This marks the start of our 9-episode series exploring the challenges of climate overshoot ahead of the Overshoot Conference Sep 30-Oct 02. overshootconference.org/the-overshoo... (or wherever you get your podcasts) 1/

Germany is straying from its decarbonisation path. Renewable energy expansion is not matching stated targets and planned gas capacity expansion risks locking in emissions. Explore how Germany could get back on track to 1.5°C 👇 UPDATED TODAY: 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/countries/ge...

Iraq blackout: "Electricity demand jumped, triggering a failure in transmission, as temperatures in parts of the country soared to as high as 50C (122F), with millions of people joining the Arbaeen pilgrimage." 🎁 link www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This is unbelievable. The high temperature at one of Finland’s northernmost weather stations, in the municipality of Sodankylä (Lapland region) within the Arctic Circle at latitude 67.3°N, reached at least 25°C for 26 days in a row. Records date back to 1908.

🌍Across Europe, cities experienced a heatwave in late June-early July 2025. Temperatures in London reached 34.7°C, while other parts of Europe saw record-breaking heat 🧵

Small updates to the monthly climate monitoring dashboard. The biggest update is that JRA-3Q and NOAAGlobalTemp are now updated to June 2025, which show similar things to the other datasets that were already updated. 1/n www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...

New paper: Explaining and predicting the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet @marleneclimate.bsky.social www.uni-leipzig.de/en/newsdetai... "The researchers found that 50 percent of the observed shift in the SH jet stream is directly attributable to global warming." www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Gut integrierte 15-jährige einfach mal aus Prinzip in ein für sie wildfremdes Land abschieben. Das hat mit "geregelter Migration" allerdings überhaupt nichts zu tun. Das ist praktizierter Rassismus im Sinne der "Wohltemperierte Grausamkeit" von die Höcke vor Jahren schon schwärmte. Schämt euch!

Excellent new paper on recent warming: "Here, we find that emissions reductions in East Asia have contributed up to 0.05 °C/decade since 2010, explaining a large fraction of the observed increase of 0.06 °C/decade over the same period, after filtering out the effects of interannual variability."

Deutschlandweit war es im Jahr 2025 von Anfang Februar bis Ende Mai seit Aufzeichnungsbeginn 1881 noch nie so trocken. Das ist das Fazit eines neuen Berichts des DWD zur klimatologischen Einordnung der Trockenphase 1. Februar – 31. Mai 2025 in Deutschland. Link zum Bericht: t1p.de/yc2hb

Tag 1 der mündlichen Verhandlung im Fall #SaulvsRWE geht zu Ende. Anwältin Roda Verheyen vertritt Klimakläger Saúl Luciano Lliuya bei seiner Klimaklage und fasst die heutigen Geschehnisse am Oberlandesgericht Hamm kurz zusammen.

Updated fossil CO2 emission estimates from @robbieandrew.bsky.social Based on the latest data, we estimate fossil CO2 emissions went up 0.9% in 2024. Listen to his presentation here (starting about 8:55): cicero.oslo.no/no/arrangeme... 1/

New study on linking wealth-based emissions to climate impacts: We find that 2/3 of global warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% and so are climate extremes. Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... @iiasa.ac.at, @usyseth.bsky.social 1/

For 2025, we again expect high hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Most seasonal forecasts (including ours) estimate an accumulated cyclone energy of more than 120 ACE. Thanks to seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast for collecting and publishing the forecasts!

Czechia was hit pretty badly by drought and bark beetles a few years ago, but the forest carbon uptake has recovered somewhat in the last couple of years.

If the data holds, it would imply a rather substantial decrease in the land sink (on the assumption the ocean does not change much). It will be an exciting (or depressing) Global Carbon Budget 2025... 3/3

Preliminary data suggests that the global average increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2024 will be a record. Not just a little record, but 25% higher than the previous record. (This is the global average, as opposed to Moana Loa) gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 1/

Very interesting reconstruction study! I would not have expect such strong long-term (5k years) trends in TC frequency. At the end of the time series the effect of global warming becomes apparent.

Can climate models reproduce observed trends? The answer can be challenging. Our new review paper in Science Advances led by Isla Simpson and Tiffany Shaw @drshaw.bsky.social discusses challenges and ways forward in confronting climate models and observations. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The water vapour emitted into the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption in January 2022 continues to influence climate. The MLS data for stratospheric water vapour is now only available a few days per month, but we can still continue the "tape recorder"

And you thought it was all just for the good of society?

🌟 Exciting News! 🌟 We are thrilled to introduce our new interactive self-guiding quiz about the Climate risk dashboard. It offers a clear demonstration of the dashboard. Dive in and explore today 👉 protect.checkpoint.com/v2/r02/___ht...

Imperialism and colonialism has resulted in significant scientific and technological disparities, hampering a just and sustainable future in the Global South. Testani et al (w/ our own Julia Mindlin) on how to balance Earth science careers in such an unequal world: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

People need to plan for climate risks. The research is there, but the usability for stakeholders can be limited. We introduce the reversal of the impact chain approach for actionable climate information that allows linking local risk levels directly to GHG emission. www.nature.com/articles/s41...