New review paper on "The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements" Main points: Overshooting 1.5°C raises risks of irreversible Earth-system tipping, which depends on peak warming and more so on how long critical thresholds are exceeded. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

New preprint in Earth System Dynamics: When will the northern high latitudes become a net carbon source? We evaluate using policy relevant SSP scenarios including overshoot, explicitly representing permafrost🌳❄️🔥🏔️ ➡️ doi.org/10.5194/egus... @njsteinert.bsky.social @mathisoncamilla.bsky.social

Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

✨ New preprint out! ✨ Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere 🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...

Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot? --> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

New paper out today with @benmsanderson.bsky.social, where we quantify the contriution of the permafrost carbon feedback to TCRE and ZEC under uncertainty. Check it out here: doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025 global-tipping-points.org Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52... Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.

Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!

New paper out today! Irreversible hydrological changes on land after temperature overshoot affect land water availability for over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes. doi.org/10.1029/2024...

New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳 Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9

New paper! Incorporating plant and soil data reveals hidden agricultural drought stress areas and shows that, despite increasing extremes, future agricultural drought stress may decrease in some regions thanks to increasing soil moisture. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Our new open access paper on the PRIME Earth System emulator for estimating regional impacts is out now: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/..., @njsteinert.bsky.social, @chrisd-jones .bsky.social, @cjsmith.be, @gergmunday.bsky.social, @dougmcneall.bsky.social

New paper on “Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions” due to irreversibility of inundated areas, which could delay or hinder climate change mitigation efforts. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

It's January, which means the EGU abstract Submission deadline is fast approaching: Jan 15th! So if you're in the net-zero world please take a look at: Towards net zero and beyond: remaining carbon budgets, negative emissions, mitigation pathways and implications for policy

Main takeaway from this (excellent) meeting: ZEC is not a singular property of the climate system. It's a catch-all for everything which isn't described by TCRE - and the more we study it, the more exotic and confusing it seems to be.

#EGU25 session announcement! Physical and statistical emulators for climate impacts with @rebeccamayvarney.bsky.social, @yannquilcaille.bsky.social, Greg Munday & Norman Steinert meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD. Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated. ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences. gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...