I had a great time presenting at #AGU25! Grateful for the support of my advisor @kimcobb.bsky.social and amazing @ncar-cgd.bsky.social scientists. NCAR makes my research, and so much other vital climate science, possible.

I was wondering when AMS was going to say something publicly. www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-am...

Good! Colorado Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper objected to moving forward with the minibus spending package, which would have funded 85 to 90% of the federal government through September 2026, because of the Trump regime's plan to dismantle NCAR.

I mean, just look at it. It's a towering physical monument to the persuit of better understanding the science of the Earth. Generations of young climate scientists from across the world have been mentored in its sandstone walls. The symbolism of this attack on free science is unparalleled.

Friends at NCAR, we're with you. @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down. We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.

To spare others the difficulty of writing Python🐍 code that simulates a user clicking links in a browser, I am also sharing download bundles of UNFCCC data: industrydecarbonization.com/docs/unfccc....

It's unavoidable that mid-career scientists are (a) (currently) better known by editors and (b) are slammed for time with proposals/bureaucracy. Timely recommendation of relevant younger scientists as reviewers is one key to breaking this deadlock (instead of guiltily letting it sit in your inbox).

And if IPCC AR7 is not released until after the GST in 2028, then they will still be using the 2019 number until 2029, when the budget for 1.5°C would have been exceeded... (unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)

#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*. It's now 94%, best guess. /1 unfccc.int/sites/defaul...

Making a climate model that works well is really, really hard. So hard, in fact, that the people who do make it happen rarely have the time or energy to talk about how hard it is on the internet. So most other people have very little understanding about how hard it is... But boy is it hard #NorESM3

We've been explaining various methods to cook eggs to our kid, establishing a parameter space with rarely sampled areas. It's up to him to now assess why.

This seems dangerous. The whole fact that the working language of LLMs is English isn't an inefficiency - it's a critical safety feature. If we allow native machine learning 'languages' we lose both traceability and our ability to monitor hyper intelligent systems. venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...

Dear Google autocorrect: I write "TCRE" about 1000 times more frequently than I write "tyre"and you should know this by now.

Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone. And you're cutting... the sleeper? www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...

Let's just be clear on this. 600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid. But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world. www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...

Bessent openly buried Article 5

The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback! preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1

It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away. And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.

Fun Read! billmckibben.substack.com/p/the-stupid...

Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...

Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1

WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists. No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.

Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.

funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it. h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...

The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock

I remember only 6 or 7 years ago, trips to Paris were a gridlocked nightmare where cycling was a death wish. It's totally amazing how much they've transformed it into a genuinely nice place for people to walk, cycle, eat outside - just to live. There is no reason this can't happen everywhere.

The worst of both worlds - DOE not withdrawing report AND refusing to respond to public comments on it. But the substantive question is related to how it is used to support (or not) EPA's proposed repeal of the Endangerment Finding - still TBD I guess?

I've been getting requests from reporters about the disbanding of the DOE Climate Working Group. Here are some comments. More to come on my Substack (www.theclimatebrink.com).

This is a fascinating development. Lawyers: Does DOE dissolving the climate report research group and declaring the lawsuits "moot" imply that the report cannot be used as the basis for any future lawmaking? Is there also responsbility for damage from misinformation? www.law.cornell.edu/wex/moot

Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

Huh... My Norwegian phone carrier blocks war.gov as an unsafe website.

I never thought I would be spending my time explaining the scientific method to one of the most well funded research institutions in the history of humanity, but here we are. But it was so uplifting to see so many brilliant scientists provide context to every point in this thing. You guys rock.

What a situation we're in. ▸He said countries were “destroying themselves” with wind energy and said, “I hope they get back to fossil fuels.” The most powerful country in the world is now punishing other countries for addressing the climate crisis.

Why can't we just provide the DOI of a paper to a journal and then they can format it how they like? Like, I don't know what volume this paper was in because I'm not sitting in front of some shelves in a research library in 1992.

Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes Preprint arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724 with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke

This article nails it. It's happened so fast, and we still focus discussions on the risks and promises of a future AI - most of which remain fantastical. In the meantime, we've collectively surrendered our cognitive independence without even questioning it. www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...

I should clarify, for the sake of my nice collaborators and various funding agencies - that I do, in fact, think that simple models are useful.

👏👏 @robinlamboll.bsky.social, this is great. My favourite part is 'GitHub, a normal place to upload recipes'... 😆

Simple climate modelling is just basically asking "shall I reduce your entire field to 1 parameter or 2... or just ignore it completely?"

EXTRAORDINARY HOT DAY IN SPAIN 40/45C from South to North 7 stations >45C ! ALL TIME RECORDS 45.8 Jerez 44.7 Almonte 42.5 Rota etc Monthly records in several region including the North with 42.0C at Pamplona Next night will be record hot in many areas.

Image 1: mock 2050 forecast produced in France in 2014 Image 2: tomorrow's forecast.

🚨 REPORTERS: Join Our DOE Climate Report Media List 🚨 If you're a reporter or communicator, sign up for updates on comments regarding the DOE climate report. We will share embargoed releases, background materials, and follow-up opportunities with you.

This is unbelievable. The high temperature at one of Finland’s northernmost weather stations, in the municipality of Sodankylä (Lapland region) within the Arctic Circle at latitude 67.3°N, reached at least 25°C for 26 days in a row. Records date back to 1908.

Going more deeply into this, one of the most bizarre omissions in the whole document is it doesn't mention TCRE, anywhere, in the whole report. The underlying principle which equates cumulative emissions to warming, the foundation of carbon budgeting which underpins the Paris Agreement. Nada. /1

This is great news - summer trial of a direct Oslo-Malmo service was a success, and will become permanent (albeit weekends and holidays) from December. And they seem to be quite serious about longer term plans for direct services to Copenhagen and Hamburg. www.nrk.no/stor-oslo/ny...

Dude has some magic beans for you. “the energy required is going to be a lot for AI systems, but the amount we’re going to get back, even just narrowly for climate [solutions] from these models, it’s going to far outweigh the energy costs.” Here's the thing./1 www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

😂🤢🥹

Big El Niños 🌊 usually come with big 🌎 teleconnections. The one in 2023/24 didn't. Why? Rainfall anomalies in the tropical Pacific were suppressed due to greater warming in Indian and Atlantic Oceans. www.nature.com/articles/s43... Led by Lei Zhang, with @matcollins.bsky.social @cires.colorado.edu

The energy scale of planned AI datacenters is terrifying. This project is 1.8GW, ~20% of Wyoming's electricity generating capacity. The energy partner is all about the CCS, but has no operational capacity yet, for the ~6 million tonnes of CO2/yr it's going to make... apnews.com/article/ai-a...

This is the way.