How are impacts from extreme weather events linked to climate change? How much responsibility do large emitters such as companies or countries carry? How do scientists go about calculating these things & how is it then interpreted by lawyers in climate litigation cases? 🌪️ ⚖️

Chart of the day. The energy transition is happening in real time! 😍

40+ scientists (incl. me) warn that new methane accounting metrics such as "no additional warming", "temperature neutrality” are being used to grandfather high emitters, penalise developing countries, and undermine the Global Methane Pledge. Full statement: methanescience.org

This is an important one! If you wonder what's wrong here, see for example a paper from @joerirogelj.bsky.social and myself a while back: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... or also from @meinshausen.bsky.social and Zeb Nicholls: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Enough has been said on the SSP5-85 debate. But what I find somewhat ironic: What the new ScenarioMIP say: a global fossil-fuel driven high-growth path is not plausible anymore. To be attacked by proponents of precisely such a narrative of economic development.

🌳🥵 🌇 In our new study (dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5c20), we find that street green space (trees, bushes, green space visible to the pedestrian, etc.) can reduce urban heat stress, but even ambitious greening efforts are unlikely to offset much of the additional heat expected from climate change.

The Iran War has once again led to a bout of what @isabelschnabel.bsky.social memorably dubbed 'fossilflation'. It's en vouge to talk about the solution as some massively complex undertaking. It really isn't. Get off fossil fuels faster. My latest just out @nature.com rdcu.be/fdxig

"Es gibt keinen Spielraum für Ziel-Abweichungen. Netto-Null-Ziele reichen nicht aus", sagt @carlschleussner.bsky.social im Gespräch mit @lukasbayer.bsky.social bei unserem 5vor12 Live-Briefing. #overshoot

Heute Abend im Volkstheater Wien. Veranstaltung des Netzwerk Klimajournalismus mit @lukasbayer.bsky.social. Ich freu mich drauf. @iiasa.ac.at www.volkstheater.at/event/332609...

🌳A new IIASA-led study shows that expanding street green space can reduce urban heat stress, but it won’t be enough to offset climate change on its own. While having greener streets help, broader, context-specific adaptation will be essential. 👉 iiasa.ac.at/news/apr-202... @tuberlin.bsky.social

In ihrem aktuellen FAZ-Gastbeitrag beklagt Katherina Reiche eine "Selbsttäuschunug" in der Energiepolitik. Tatsächlich fällt der Täuschungsvorwurf aber teilweise auf sie selbst zurück, denn der Text enthält diverse falsche oder irreführende Zahlen. Ein Thread. (1/17) www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

Emission scenarios inevitably embed assumptions about fairness. Tracking these assumptions is genuinely difficult, but making them transparent matters. We developed a framework to do just that. @ic-cep.bsky.social #IIASA @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 1/2

In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C. Together with @erichfischer.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social

NEW STUDY: Winter downpours are getting heavier in parts of Spain, Portugal and Morocco as the region recovers from a month of relentless storms. Between mid-January and mid-February nine named storms brought torrential rain hurricane force winds causing major damage and disruption. 1/5

🌍 Just published: The hard road back from overshoot by IIASA Journalist in Residence, @lisapalmer.bsky.social. The piece examines some of the realities of climate overshoot and features insights from IIASA's @carlschleussner.bsky.social & @joerirogelj.bsky.social. 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change, not only due to more heat, droughts and wildfires, but increasingly severe rainstorms led to catastrophic flooding this winter, highlighting again the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasingly...

Can climate mitigation scenarios be trusted without equity at their core? A new @plosclimate.org study "highlights a research agenda combining incremental improvements & participatory approaches - practical yet ambitious” says @joerirogelj.bsky.social iiasa.ac.at/news/feb-202...

For a decade, the Shared Socioeconomics Pathways #SSP are used for scenario research related to climate change mitigation. Now, GDP & population projections were updated by @iiasa.ac.at & the team at the #OECD, and the #ScenarioServices team set up a new interactive app to explore the scenarios!

No joke: I got angry hate mail today for writing an obituary of a Black woman scientist—because the person felt she did didn’t deserve the recognition. Which just makes me want to share it again: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

*DEADLINE EXTENDED* February 8 Submit your suggestions and nominate (yourself or others) as a co-author for the 2026 edition of the 10 New Insights in Climate Science

New from us: The average EU citizen spent EUR880 on fossil fuel imports in 2025, as gas imports increased and the U.S. became the largest supplier. Slow progress on electrifying transport and buildings as well as building wind power are harming the bloc's economy and energy security.

How should climate science and policy respond to a potential exceedance of 1.5°C? We provide our perspective on this in a new @Nature comment 🔗 nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00247-y led by Gaurav Ganti with Sabine Fuss, @joerirogelj.bsky.social, @setupelz.bsky.social & Keywan Riahi 1/

D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: github.com/chrisroadmap...

Last week, @carbonbrief.org listed the top climate papers that were the most featured in the media. Proud to have our paper in #8! The paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited. Climate aside, decarbonisation is security. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Submissions for abstracts to EGU26 are open until next week. @imenke.bsky.social , @etheokritoff.bsky.social , Noah Walker-Crawford, @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social , and I are looking forward to your contributions to our climate science and litigation-themed outreach session.

In the world we live in today, that is 1.3C warmer due to our continued burning of fossil fuels, the extreme rainfall leading to disastrous flooding in many parts of Asia is up to 50 to 160% more intense - new @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-h...

Zum Abschluss der #COP30 hat die @wienerzeitung.at mehrere Expert:innen um Antworten auf die drängenden Fragen gebeten: Klimaangst, soziale Dimension der Emissionen und Auswirkungen, Rahmenbedingungen & Strukturen, das Pariser Klimaabkommen, Handlungsoptionen... #WissenSchafftKlimaschutz

⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract) #EGU26 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

A fantastic effort from the @carbonbrief.org team pulling this together. A great resource summarising major outcomes and process at COP30. A must read 👇👇👇 And just a day after the gavel came down. Impressive. I bet next year, they'll beat the COP closing plenary :)

2025 was again a severe #hurricane season with 4 major hurricanes (3 cat 5 hurricanes). In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season. Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪

Against the backdrop of negotiations at #COP30, leading climate scientists have released the Búzios Scientific Statement, offering a clear assessment of the world’s remaining options to return to 1.5°C of warming by the end of the century. 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/nov-202...

Búzios Scientific Statement 100 climate researchers, coordinated by @pik-potsdam.bsky.social & @iiasa.ac.at, released a joint statement to inform the #COP30 negotiations and provide guidance on difficult but doable global efforts designed to limit dangerous overshoot of 1.5°C as much as possible.

There's an science statement that emerged from this weeks IAMC conference in Buzios, Brasil 5 key insights including 2035 benchmarks for GHG and fossil fuel reductions, PV+Solar upscaling Check it out here: drive.google.com/file/d/1ofMw... Open for sign-up here: forms.gle/FPrV3w6cMu8h...

Check out the IEA NZE here tinyurl.com/2ctf7mrx (but ignore the unrealistic-zombie-nightmare (CPS) scenario) For a nice comparison, see this new high ambition pathway by @climateanalytics.org and the REMIND team at @pik-potsdam.bsky.social - tinyurl.com/y9m8z8jk

Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by @shrutinath97.bsky.social agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Excellent compilation of viewpoints in @natclimate.nature.com on the Paris Agreement Articles. Honoured to have contributed together with a fantastic group of experts. 👇👇👇

Stories abound these days showing that global warming exceeding 1.5C is now part of science's best estimate. What does that mean for the #ParisAgreement 1.5C goal? A good time to revive a thread about a piece we wrote earlier this year on this topic in @science.org 👇🌍🌡️

COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges With COP30 kicking off on Monday, a new paper by Julia Schönfeld and Professor Joeri Rogelj provides a framework for assessing countries’ climate pledges 🧵 Learn more: ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2

Excited to announce our #EGU26 session on Climate Risk Assessment for Finance & Insurance Sectors with @mattpriestley.bsky.social A. Ciullo @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @natalieslord.bsky.social meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @iiasa.ac.at @riskkan.bsky.social @lamont.columbia.edu

I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders. Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/... Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/...

This is how climate injustice unfolds. There is both an economic logic to cutting emissions now & a moral imperative to rapidly scale up international finance for loss and damage and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries.

Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏

New research shows that near-term mitigation could spare future generations around 0.6 meters of sea-level rise caused by emissions between 2020 and 2090, making today’s decisions critical not only for limiting warming but also for coastal impacts. 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/oct-202...

The world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies should shoulder a major share of the investment needed to develop carbon removal technologies, according to a new peer-reviewed study in @climate-policy.bsky.social. #carbonmajors #CDR #climatepolicy

Merz & Co wollen die EU-Klimaziele aufweichen?! Nicht mit uns 😡 In einem offenen Brief mit Wissenschaftler*innen fordern wir die Bundesregierung jetzt auf, sich für ein starkes Ziel von mind. 90% Reduktion bis 2040 einzusetzen & nicht noch zu verzögern! 👉 fridaysforfuture.de/offener-brie...

🎙️ #EditionZukunft @derstandard.at Über das Konzept #Overshoot und die Dringlichkeit rascher Reduktion unserer Treibhausgas-Emissionen zur Minimierung der Risiken durch die Erderhitzung. @carlschleussner.bsky.social vom @iiasa.ac.at im Gespräch mit @philippramer.at #WissenSchafftKlimaschutz

Der @derstandard.at hat unserer Overshoot Konferenz noch ein längeres Interview gewidmet 👇👇👇 www.derstandard.at/story/310000...