Carl Schleussner
@carlschleussner.bsky.social
📤 1950
📥 148
📝 199
Climate Scientist at
@iiasa.ac.at
and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin Views are my own.
reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Gernot Wagner
4 days ago
The Iran War has once again led to a bout of what
@isabelschnabel.bsky.social
memorably dubbed 'fossilflation'. It's en vouge to talk about the solution as some massively complex undertaking. It really isn't. Get off fossil fuels faster. My latest just out
@nature.com
rdcu.be/fdxig
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Carl Schleussner
Netzwerk Klimajournalismus Österreich
6 days ago
"Es gibt keinen Spielraum für Ziel-Abweichungen. Netto-Null-Ziele reichen nicht aus", sagt
@carlschleussner.bsky.social
im Gespräch mit
@lukasbayer.bsky.social
bei unserem 5vor12 Live-Briefing.
#overshoot
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Heute Abend im Volkstheater Wien. Veranstaltung des Netzwerk Klimajournalismus mit
@lukasbayer.bsky.social
. Ich freu mich drauf.
@iiasa.ac.at
www.volkstheater.at/event/332609...
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CLIMATE OVERSHOOT –WIE KRIEGEN WIR NOCH DIE KURVE? - Volkstheater Wien
https://www.volkstheater.at/event/3326092/climate-overshoot-wie-kriegen-wir-noch-die-kurve/
6 days ago
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
10 days ago
🌳A new IIASA-led study shows that expanding street green space can reduce urban heat stress, but it won’t be enough to offset climate change on its own. While having greener streets help, broader, context-specific adaptation will be essential. 👉
iiasa.ac.at/news/apr-202...
@tuberlin.bsky.social
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Street green space can help cool cities, but it will not be enough on its own
A new IIASA-led study finds that expanding street green space can reduce urban heat stress in cities worldwide, but even ambitious greening efforts are unlikely to offset a significant share of the additional heat expected under climate change. Instead, the research shows that street greenery should be part of a broader portfolio of urban adaptation measures.
https://iiasa.ac.at/news/apr-2026/street-green-space-can-help-cool-cities-but-it-will-not-be-enough-on-its-own
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Carl Schleussner
Malte Kreutzfeldt
10 days ago
In ihrem aktuellen FAZ-Gastbeitrag beklagt Katherina Reiche eine "Selbsttäuschunug" in der Energiepolitik. Tatsächlich fällt der Täuschungsvorwurf aber teilweise auf sie selbst zurück, denn der Text enthält diverse falsche oder irreführende Zahlen. Ein Thread. (1/17)
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
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Carl Schleussner
Ben Sanderson
11 days ago
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/2627/2026/
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Carl Schleussner
Karl Scheifinger
18 days ago
Emission scenarios inevitably embed assumptions about fairness. Tracking these assumptions is genuinely difficult, but making them transparent matters. We developed a framework to do just that.
@ic-cep.bsky.social
#IIASA
@imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social
1/2
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Carl Schleussner
Emanuele Bevacqua
24 days ago
In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C. Together with
@erichfischer.bsky.social
@janasillmann.bsky.social
@zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
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Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9
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Carl Schleussner
World Weather Attribution
about 2 months ago
NEW STUDY: Winter downpours are getting heavier in parts of Spain, Portugal and Morocco as the region recovers from a month of relentless storms. Between mid-January and mid-February nine named storms brought torrential rain hurricane force winds causing major damage and disruption. 1/5
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
about 2 months ago
🌍 Just published: The hard road back from overshoot by IIASA Journalist in Residence,
@lisapalmer.bsky.social
. The piece examines some of the realities of climate overshoot and features insights from IIASA's
@carlschleussner.bsky.social
&
@joerirogelj.bsky.social
. 👉
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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The hard road back from overshoot - Nature Climate Change
As global temperatures move beyond 1.5 °C, overshoot now defines the landscape ahead, sharpening legal claims, exposing economic risks and revealing how far politics still trail the pace of change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02573-5
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Prof Friederike Otto
about 2 months ago
The Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change, not only due to more heat, droughts and wildfires, but increasingly severe rainstorms led to catastrophic flooding this winter, highlighting again the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasingly...
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
2 months ago
Can climate mitigation scenarios be trusted without equity at their core? A new
@plosclimate.org
study "highlights a research agenda combining incremental improvements & participatory approaches - practical yet ambitious” says
@joerirogelj.bsky.social
iiasa.ac.at/news/feb-202...
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Rebuilding trust in global climate mitigation scenarios
A new IIASA-led study examines growing critiques of how global climate mitigation scenarios address equity and justice and identifies key conditions for fair, feasible, and politically credible climat...
https://iiasa.ac.at/news/feb-2026/rebuilding-trust-in-global-climate-mitigation-scenarios
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Daniel Huppmann
3 months ago
For a decade, the Shared Socioeconomics Pathways
#SSP
are used for scenario research related to climate change mitigation. Now, GDP & population projections were updated by
@iiasa.ac.at
& the team at the
#OECD
, and the
#ScenarioServices
team set up a new interactive app to explore the scenarios!
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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of scenarios that describe potential future developments in society, economics, and demographics until the end of the 21st century. This Explorer pre...
https://ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Mar Hicks
2 months ago
No joke: I got angry hate mail today for writing an obituary of a Black woman scientist—because the person felt she did didn’t deserve the recognition. Which just makes me want to share it again:
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Gladys Mae West obituary: mathematician who pioneered GPS technology
She made key contributions to US cold-war science despite facing huge barriers as a Black woman.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00254-z
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Carl Schleussner
Daniel Ospina
2 months ago
*DEADLINE EXTENDED* February 8 Submit your suggestions and nominate (yourself or others) as a co-author for the 2026 edition of the 10 New Insights in Climate Science
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Lauri Myllyvirta
3 months ago
New from us: The average EU citizen spent EUR880 on fossil fuel imports in 2025, as gas imports increased and the U.S. became the largest supplier. Slow progress on electrifying transport and buildings as well as building wind power are harming the bloc's economy and energy security.
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How should climate science and policy respond to a potential exceedance of 1.5°C? We provide our perspective on this in a new @Nature comment 🔗
nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00247-y
led by Gaurav Ganti with Sabine Fuss,
@joerirogelj.bsky.social
,
@setupelz.bsky.social
& Keywan Riahi 1/
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Exceeding 1.5 °C requires rethinking accountability in climate policy
A scientific foundation is required to establish nations’ responsibilities in a hotter ‘overshoot’ world.
https://nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00247-y
3 months ago
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Chris Smith
3 months ago
D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code:
github.com/chrisroadmap...
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Yann Quilcaille
3 months ago
Last week,
@carbonbrief.org
listed the top climate papers that were the most featured in the media. Proud to have our paper in #8! The paper here:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Carl Schleussner
Ben Sanderson
3 months ago
If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited. Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
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Trump has growing stranglehold over EU and UK energy supply, study shows
European countries now reliant on US liquified natural gas shipments, creating risk of higher bills amid recent tensions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/21/trump-us-stranglehold-eu-uk-energy-supply-lng
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Ben Sanderson
3 months ago
Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
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Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks
Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-28/
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Annika Högner
3 months ago
Submissions for abstracts to EGU26 are open until next week.
@imenke.bsky.social
,
@etheokritoff.bsky.social
, Noah Walker-Crawford,
@rosapietroiusti.bsky.social
, and I are looking forward to your contributions to our climate science and litigation-themed outreach session.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Carl Schleussner
Prof Friederike Otto
4 months ago
In the world we live in today, that is 1.3C warmer due to our continued burning of fossil fuels, the extreme rainfall leading to disastrous flooding in many parts of Asia is up to 50 to 160% more intense - new
@wwattribution.bsky.social
study
www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasing-h...
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Carl Schleussner
Daniel Huppmann
5 months ago
Zum Abschluss der
#COP30
hat die
@wienerzeitung.at
mehrere Expert:innen um Antworten auf die drängenden Fragen gebeten: Klimaangst, soziale Dimension der Emissionen und Auswirkungen, Rahmenbedingungen & Strukturen, das Pariser Klimaabkommen, Handlungsoptionen...
#WissenSchafftKlimaschutz
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Was von der COP30 bleibt: Expert:innen zu drängenden Fragen rund um das Klima | WZ • Wiener Zeitung
Abschluss der 30. Weltklimakonferenz: Expert:innen zu drängenden Fragen rund um das Klima
https://www.wienerzeitung.at/a/es-gibt-nach-wie-vor-eine-ganze-welt-zu-gewinnen
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Inga Menke
5 months ago
⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract)
#EGU26
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
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A fantastic effort from the
@carbonbrief.org
team pulling this together. A great resource summarising major outcomes and process at COP30. A must read 👇👇👇 And just a day after the gavel came down. Impressive. I bet next year, they'll beat the COP closing plenary :)
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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Carl Schleussner
Peter Pfleiderer
5 months ago
2025 was again a severe
#hurricane
season with 4 major hurricanes (3 cat 5 hurricanes). In terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) it was slightly above a normal season. Seasonal forecasts (including ours 🥳) predicted the ACE well this year 💪
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
5 months ago
Against the backdrop of negotiations at
#COP30
, leading climate scientists have released the Búzios Scientific Statement, offering a clear assessment of the world’s remaining options to return to 1.5°C of warming by the end of the century. 🔗
iiasa.ac.at/news/nov-202...
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Daniel Huppmann
5 months ago
Búzios Scientific Statement 100 climate researchers, coordinated by
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social
&
@iiasa.ac.at
, released a joint statement to inform the
#COP30
negotiations and provide guidance on difficult but doable global efforts designed to limit dangerous overshoot of 1.5°C as much as possible.
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Búzios Scientific Statement.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ofMwRM4BeTovfSdthsO5v_9I5x3xShMU/view
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There's an science statement that emerged from this weeks IAMC conference in Buzios, Brasil 5 key insights including 2035 benchmarks for GHG and fossil fuel reductions, PV+Solar upscaling Check it out here:
drive.google.com/file/d/1ofMw...
Open for sign-up here:
forms.gle/FPrV3w6cMu8h...
5 months ago
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Carl Schleussner
Claire Fyson
5 months ago
Check out the IEA NZE here
tinyurl.com/2ctf7mrx
(but ignore the unrealistic-zombie-nightmare (CPS) scenario) For a nice comparison, see this new high ambition pathway by
@climateanalytics.org
and the REMIND team at
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social
-
tinyurl.com/y9m8z8jk
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Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to…
This study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate ac...
https://climateanalytics.org/publications/rescuing-1-5c
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Climate emulators are a great tool to explore a wide range of possible climate futures. Here comes MERCURY - utilising the power of image-compression-based techniques for memory-efficient emulation. Fantastic work led by
@shrutinath97.bsky.social
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
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MERCURY: A Fast and Versatile Multi‐Resolution Based Global Emulator of Compound Climate Hazards
Climate model emulators traditionally generate global fields amounting to Peta-Bytes of data We introduce the emulator MERCURY, that employs a lifting scheme based on image compression techniques...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024MS004905
5 months ago
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Excellent compilation of viewpoints in
@natclimate.nature.com
on the Paris Agreement Articles. Honoured to have contributed together with a fantastic group of experts. 👇👇👇
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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Carl Schleussner
Joeri Rogelj
5 months ago
Stories abound these days showing that global warming exceeding 1.5C is now part of science's best estimate. What does that mean for the
#ParisAgreement
1.5C goal? A good time to revive a thread about a piece we wrote earlier this year on this topic in
@science.org
👇🌍🌡️
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Carl Schleussner
Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment
5 months ago
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges With COP30 kicking off on Monday, a new paper by Julia Schönfeld and Professor Joeri Rogelj provides a framework for assessing countries’ climate pledges 🧵 Learn more:
ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2
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COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges | Imperial News | Imperial College London
A new study, for the first time, shows how the ‘highest possible ambition’ of countries' climate pledges can be assessed.
https://ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Kai Kornhuber
6 months ago
Excited to announce our
#EGU26
session on Climate Risk Assessment for Finance & Insurance Sectors with
@mattpriestley.bsky.social
A. Ciullo
@hcbloomfield19.bsky.social
@natalieslord.bsky.social
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
@iiasa.ac.at
@riskkan.bsky.social
@lamont.columbia.edu
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Carl Schleussner
Yann Quilcaille
6 months ago
I'm proud to be part of the 2025
#TIME100Climate
list of influential leaders. Link to the full list of 2025
#TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...
Link to my page in the 2025
#TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...
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Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025
Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.
https://time.com/collections/time-100-climate-2025/7326540/yann-quilcaille/
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Carl Schleussner
Emily Theokritoff
6 months ago
This is how climate injustice unfolds. There is both an economic logic to cutting emissions now & a moral imperative to rapidly scale up international finance for loss and damage and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries.
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Really important paper led by my
@iiasa.ac.at
colleague Alex Nauels
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
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Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02452-5
6 months ago
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
6 months ago
New research shows that near-term mitigation could spare future generations around 0.6 meters of sea-level rise caused by emissions between 2020 and 2090, making today’s decisions critical not only for limiting warming but also for coastal impacts. 🔗
iiasa.ac.at/news/oct-202...
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
Climate Analytics
6 months ago
The world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies should shoulder a major share of the investment needed to develop carbon removal technologies, according to a new peer-reviewed study in
@climate-policy.bsky.social
.
#carbonmajors
#CDR
#climatepolicy
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The responsibility of investor-owned carbon majors to contribute to direct air carbon capture and storage investment
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options are critical for achieving global climate objectives. Yet, many proposed removal technologies are in their formative phase. Significant near-term investments ar...
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2025.2557230
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Carl Schleussner
Fridays for Future Germany
6 months ago
Merz & Co wollen die EU-Klimaziele aufweichen?! Nicht mit uns 😡 In einem offenen Brief mit Wissenschaftler*innen fordern wir die Bundesregierung jetzt auf, sich für ein starkes Ziel von mind. 90% Reduktion bis 2040 einzusetzen & nicht noch zu verzögern! 👉
fridaysforfuture.de/offener-brie...
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Carl Schleussner
Daniel Huppmann
6 months ago
🎙️
#EditionZukunft
@derstandard.at
Über das Konzept
#Overshoot
und die Dringlichkeit rascher Reduktion unserer Treibhausgas-Emissionen zur Minimierung der Risiken durch die Erderhitzung.
@carlschleussner.bsky.social
vom
@iiasa.ac.at
im Gespräch mit
@philippramer.at
#WissenSchafftKlimaschutz
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Wie sich das 1,5-Grad-Klimaziel noch retten lässt
Klimaforscher Carl-Friedrich Schleußner erklärt, warum wir nur mehr in der zweit- oder drittbesten Welt leben – und wie sich CO2 aus der Atmosphäre holen lässt
https://www.derstandard.at/story/3100000291374/wie-sich-das-15-grad-klimaziel-noch-retten-laesst
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Der
@derstandard.at
hat unserer Overshoot Konferenz noch ein längeres Interview gewidmet 👇👇👇
www.derstandard.at/story/310000...
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derStandard.at
https://derStandard.at/Wissenschaft
6 months ago
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Carl Schleussner
IIASA
6 months ago
📰 Your evening read on the IIASA
#OvershootConference
:
@carlschleussner.bsky.social
tells
@carbonbrief.org
that the scientific community is only just “beginning to appreciate” the need to understand & quantify how different overshoot pathways affect adaptation.
www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-ex...
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Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief
The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-exploring-the-implications-of-meeting-1-5c-climate-goal-from-above/
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Carl Schleussner
Carbon Brief
6 months ago
NEW – Experts: The key ‘unknowns’ of overshooting the 1.5C global-warming limit |
@ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org
and
@rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org
Read here:
buff.ly/yPWMH59
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Experts: The key ‘unknowns’ of overshooting the 1.5C global-warming limit - Carbon Brief
On the sidelines of a conference, Carbon Brief asked a range of experts what they consider to be the key “unknowns” around overshoot.
https://buff.ly/yPWMH59
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Carl Schleussner
Robert McSweeney
6 months ago
Last week,
@ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org
and I attended the first-ever conference on climate "overshoot" in Vienna. Here's our summary of the wide-ranging discussions. (Bearing in mind we were two journalists covering 8 conference themes...!)
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Super comprehensive report on our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference by
@carbonbrief.org
. Great summary and overview on some of the central discussion points. Check it out👇👇👇
www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-ex...
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Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief
The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-exploring-the-implications-of-meeting-1-5c-climate-goal-from-above/
6 months ago
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reposted by
Carl Schleussner
IIASA
7 months ago
✨ The reflections sent a powerful message: overshoot is not just a scientific scenario, it is a lived reality that compounds risks, deepens inequities, & raises questions of justice. Responding requires courage, collaboration, & commitment across all levels of society. ℹ️
overshootconference.org
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Overshoot |
https://overshootconference.org/
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Carl Schleussner
A&W Blog
7 months ago
In Ö entfallen mehr als 50 % der
#Treibhausgase
auf die obersten 10 %. 🏭💨 Höchste Zeit, Reiche und Konzerne stärker in die Pflicht zu nehmen, meinen
@nicolasprinz.bsky.social
,
@sixev4.bsky.social
& Judith Derndorfer:
www.awblog.at/klima-energi...
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