An increasingly likely nightmare scenario for 2026: worsening fossil fuel and fertilizer crisis, combined with record global temperatures and drought. Fossil fuel dependence really doing a number on us.

China's oil imports fell almost 30% in April, to the lowest level in a decade, a dramatic drop well highlighted by @javierblas.bsky.social. He tries to find a "big" explanation and comes up short - likely because there isn't one: there drop is rather a result of multiple adjustments.

India's coal-fired power generation fell in January-March, despite a 3% increase in power demand, as solar and other clean energy sources met all the demand growth.

What will the global fossil fuel market look like once the closure of the Hormuz ends? In short, volatile and risky but oversupplied - terrible for fossil fuel investors, less so for clean energy investors. The UAE's decision to leave OPEC reinforced this.

New analysis from us showing how clean energy reduces electricity bills in Europe. Countries with a cleaner electricity mix see much smaller increases in power prices when gas prices rise.

Our near-real-time estimates of EU CO2 emissions performed well against the IEA's data which just came out - they also have a 0.8% drop in 2025.

Bloomberg News was able to confirm that China targets a doubling of total non-fossil energy supply from 2025 to 2035. This is a substantially stronger target than raising the share from 22% to 30% as announced earlier, especially if energy demand growth slows down.

A striking difference between the 2021-22 and the current fossil fuel crunches is the IEA's response. This time, not a mention of the actual solutions to cut dependence on fossil fuels - clean energy and electrification. This expert letter calls them out for it.

First look at China's energy, industrial output, and CO2 in the first quarter: emissions from the power sector up due to seasonal factors, industrial emissions down sharply, cleantech output treading water after a very busy 2025.

For now, the war in the Middle East hasn't led to increased coal burn relative to last year's level. Solar and wind continue to increase their share in the global mix. energyandcleanair.org/fossil-power...

Everyone seems to think coal will get a big lift because of the oil&gas crisis, except for the professionals - the traders and plant operators. They're buying less of the stuff in April, not more. Note this includes within-country shipments which are big in e.g. China, Indonesia.

New from me: No increase in global coal power generation after Hormuz closure - solar and wind growth covered the fall in gas-fired generation. The record buildout of clean energy in 2025 helped mitigate the impact of the Hormuz closure.

Excellent rundown of the hodgepodge of statements that are being used to create a "back to coal" narrative. In sum, most range from meaningless to inconsequential, with one with uncertain significance thrown in.

European power prices are split since the US-Iran conflict. Gas-reliant markets like Italy and Ireland have seen high prices (€140/MWh) while renewable rich regions including Spain, Portugal and Sweden see far lower prices (€40/MWh). These are average wholesale daily prices (8am to 8pm).

A segment on energy security in China's main state news broadcast yesterday, emphasizing the contribution of clean energy and electrification. Striking to see how the rhetoric has changed - energy security used to be synonymous to coal.

The only sane thing to do: The French government will prepare a plan to electrify key sectors of the economy to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, suggesting the measures could be funded from increased corporate tax revenue from fossil fuel companies.

How the Hormuz crisis is driving a shift away from fossil fuels: ☑️Developer in Vietnam wants to replace an LNG terminal with renewables and batteries ☑️Sinopec cancels LNG terminal expansion in Tianjin, China ☑️New Zealand LNG terminal uncertain after PM doubts business case

The value of China's clean energy tech exports rose 44% in Jan-Feb 2026, to $41 bn. That's an increase of $13 bn year-on-year, equal to a third of the increase in the country's trade surplus, which reached a new record.

Germany's energy minister has correctly identified that it's sustainability that's crashing the German economy... First it was the pipeline supply of sustainability from Russia and now the seaborne supply of sustainability from the Gulf...

There is a misperception that fossil fuel shocks could drive *more* fossil fuel use. It should be simple: fossil fuels - including coal - get more pricey, we use less of them and more clean energy. The error is focusing on what politicians say instead of the real world.🧵 bsky.app/profile/laur...

Clean energy growth and slower fossil fuel consumption growth reduced India’s vulnerability to the impacts of the current fossil fuel shock: Consumption of imported coal at power plants fell by 20% in 2025, while gas imports fell by 6% and net oil imports were flat year-on-year.

NEW from us: India's CO2 emission growth slowed to less than 1% in 2025, the slowest rate in two decades, outside of the Covid drop. This was in part due to record clean energy growth which helped push down power sector emissions and is projected to accelerate this year.

🇨🇳 🎥 WEBINAR | Recording | Implications of China’s 15th five-year plan for climate & energy transition 🔍️ In case you missed it: Join experts here⤵️ energyandcleanair.org/aspi-crea-we... @belindaschaepe.bsky.social; @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social; @katelogan.bsky.social & @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org

India's new 2035 climate targets undersell the country's potential for transformative clean energy growth. Under current plans&trends, the target of 60% clean power capacity will be achieved before 2030, rather than by 2035. That also allows much faster cuts in CO2 intensity. tinyurl.com/25p9jvuk

China kept adding clean energy at a brisk pace in Jan-Feb 2026, with 32GW of solar, 11GW wind and 1.2GW nuclear added. Solar slowed down compared to the frantic pace of the past two years but wind made a new record. The real eye-popper however is coal&gas (thermal) capacity additions..!

Here's how high fuel prices drove clean energy investments during the 2021-22 price shock - both solar and battery exports boomed just as fuel prices shot up. Battery demand is a proxy for EV manufacturing.

NEW SHIFT KEY I’m joined by the great @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social to discuss what China’s new five-year plan tells us about its energy and economic ambitions, what *really* shapes its climate & energy strategy, and how it’s responding to the Iran war. heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

China's January-February industrial data is muddled by the Chinese New Year holiday as always, but there are still some key signals.

New from us: how Pakistan's solar boom is dampening the impact of the Hormuz crisis on the country. Solar power allowed LNG&diesel imports to fall after the previous gas crisis in 2021-22, with the solar boom set to avoid $7bn in fossil fuel import costs this year.

Lots of questions and muddled thinking about whether the impending fossil fuel crisis will benefit coal. Key thing to understand: Fossil fuel demand will fall; fuel-switching between coal and gas is temporary, while clean energy acceleration is structural. Just look at the 2021-2022 gas crisis.

"Achieving the UK’s net zero target by 2050 will cost less than a single oil shock and bring health and economic benefits while insulating the country against future costs, the government’s climate advisers have forecast." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Very few consumers in the world, maybe 1 in 8, are shielded from the rise in gasoline&diesel prices (in that their government subsidizes fuel prices). A common mistake is thinking that being an oil exporter will shield consumers. Only switching to clean transport&energy does.

NEW – Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ mean for climate change? ✍️ By @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org 💬 With comment from @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, Li Shuo, Li Zheng, Yao Zhe, Ma Jun, Pan Jiahua, Joseph Dellatte, Rebecca Nadin Read here ➡️ bit.ly/474QNPx

🇨🇳 NEW | INSIGHTS: China releases 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) 🏛️ Plan is highly supportive of clean energy; refrains from strong, measurable targets to reduce emissions or fossil fuel consumption w/ @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social & @belindaschaepe.bsky.social energyandcleanair.org/chinas-15th-...

NEW ANALYSIS: UK emissions fell 2.4% in 2025 as coal fell to a 400-year low. Incredibly, we used less coal last year than than in 1600, when Queen Elizabeth I was on the throne and Shakespeare was writing Hamlet. All the details in our article: www.carbonbrief.org/...

How does the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and disruption of oil&gas shipments affect China’s energy strategy? It validates the emphasis on energy security and reducing reliance on oil&gas imports, with clean energy, electrification and green fuels playing a growing role in that strategy.

China's five year plan for 2026-2030 is out - what are the implications for energy and emissions? Here are my observations. www.linkedin.com/pulse/chinas...

As China prepares to release its key plans and targets for the next five years, possibly the biggest question for energy and emissions is a backward-looking one: how much did the country reduce carbon intensity in the past five years - and how much is left to do by 2030?

It's crazy how reliant the world's entire energy system is on one body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, just 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest, and situated in one of the most volatile regions on Earth. Here are the countries most dependent on oil&gas through the strait.

High power prices are a major drag not just on Europe's industry but electrification and therefore the energy transition. Removing the incentive for clean energy created by carbon prices would be counterproductive; making electricity cheaper while boosting clean could be welcome.

Breaking: China's official statistics report a 0.3% drop in CO2 emissions from energy&industry in 2025, the third time that annual emissions have fallen this century and the first fall predominantly driven by clean energy growth. 🧵

This a very significant step - the average PM2.5 pollution level in the key region around Beijing was 37 ug/m3 in 2025, still a bit above old national standard or 35, and now the standard becomes 30 this year and 25 in 2031. Clear mandate for environment ministry to push forward.

The value of Russia's fossil fuel exports fell 19% year on year during the fourth year of the full-scale invasion. Sanctions work. Clean energy works. But plenty more to do on both fronts.

Breaking: China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole. This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.

Has China peaked emissions? We may not know for years to come, but new analysis from @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social shows CO2 emissions fell by 0.3% last year — the first time China has recorded a decline while energy demand growth remained strong. Free link here: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Communist Party continues to set the bar low for China's emission peaking - coal consumption should "reach its peak and enter a plateau" from 2027, with continued increases from power and chemicals offset by reductions elsewhere, despite having fallen for close to two years.

NEW from us: Rapid expansion of the EV, wind, solar and other clean energy industries drove more than a third of China's GDP growth in 2025, and almost all of the growth in investment, making clean energy essential to meeting economic targets.

The first rule of holes is that when you find yourself in a hole, stop buying LNG from the bastard who dug the hole. The second rule is get out of the hole - electrify everything and clean up electricity.

Coal power in China: most new coal plants in a decade went online in 2025; plans for new projects reached a record high, with the equivalent of >150 large coal plants proposed. Thankfully permitting slowed so the government is limiting the expansion to a degree. What's going on?

News from Helsinki, Finland which recently became coal-free when the last two coal plants closed. The local government just released a statement that the coal exit led to very clear air quality improvements. Can you spot the coal exit in the graph of SO2 concentrations?