China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.

🇨🇳 🇺🇳 NEW | Report: Assessing China’s overseas coal power ban 4 years on Following President Xi's 2021 pledge of no new overseas coal projects, 59.3GW of projects have been cancelled, or 6.1bn tonnes of avoided lifetime carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, yet loopholes persist

Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.

Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.

The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.

NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement. bsky.app/profile/crea...

China power generation capacity additions in September: Solar +9.3 GW Wind +2.6 Nuclear +1.5 Hydro +0.6 Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year. Coal looking as bad as expected.

What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.

Last new coal plant proposals cancelled or shelved in Thailand, Kenya, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan, Cambodia deciding not to build any new coal, Morocco committing to a 2040 coal phase-out, proposals for new coal power outside China at record low - lots of progress happening outside front page news.

Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September: ➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year. ➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.

A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.

Since tweets like this continue to travel and I get similar responses every time I post something positive about China, it's maybe good to point out where China's progress on clean energy is and isn't world-leading and/or game-changing. 🧵

China's coal imports fell 3% in September, and are down 11% year-to-date. Fossil gas imports fell 8% in September, -6% year-to-date. Net oil imports are up 2% year-to-date, 3% in September, and oil product exports are rising fast in October, indicating easing demand.

If you want an explanation of why China is kicking the EU car industry to the curb, look no further than the criminally knuckle dragging EU car makers demanding new loopholes so they don't have to meet any meaningful low emission targets for cars in the EU. www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...

💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership? Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.

China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.

There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink. www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️ Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️ buff.ly/zUSLhUp

China's wind and solar capacity additions have cooled down as expected after the rush in March-May, driven by the change in pricing policy. 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind was added to the grid in August, and 2025 seems comfortably on track to a new annual record. bsky.app/profile/laur...

Now that China's new climate targets are out, here's a comparison to IPCC scenarios. The 2030 and 2035 targets are weak even compared to the median of 3-degree scenarios, which would entail devastating climate impacts, but the long-term 2060 target is in line with 2 degrees.

The basic dilemma for China's leaders is: you have to cut either the clean energy industry or the coal industry down to size; both can't continue to grow like they have. These targets just show they still haven't made up their minds, balking at the economic fallout from either.

Xi Jinping announced China's new climate targets personally, a positive gesture, but the targets brought little clarity on China’s future emission pathway. Targeting a 7-10% emission reduction by 2035 from an undefined "peak level" undersells China's current clean energy boom.

China's power demand grew 5% in August, with residential consumption growing only 2.4%. This was because August heatwaves were much milder than last year. During the summer as a whole, residential power demand grew 10% and service sector demand by 9%, showing the effect of AC.

Europe will electrify -- where I sit right now I can literally hear heat pumps being installed in two different residential blocks that are opting out of the district heating network.

As China prepares to publish its emission reduction targets for 2035, likely the most significant climate announcement of the year, here is a chart to compare the target to what needs to happen under different global climate targets.

Plot thickens: "sources" have said that China will release its new climate targets by Wednesday, the UN Climate Summit day in New York, and China and EU are lined up as first speakers. Now the speakers' list has gone missing from the UN website, apparently after Ed's tweet below.

New from us: India's power sector emissions fell for only the 2nd time in half a century, due to both economic and weather factors and record clean energy growth. The current drop is unlikely to be sustained but clean energy projects in the pipeline can peak power sector emissions well before 2030.

China is expected to announce its new NDC by September 24, two sources told Reuters. #ParisAgreement #2035 www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Growth in solar and wind power generation continued to exceed the growth in power demand in China in August. Nevertheless, another bad month for hydropower generation (-17 TWh YoY) enabled power generation from coal&gas to inch up 2% (10 TWh).

Look how wrong the IEA's been on solar in the past. Trump admin: not wrong enough. They pushed the IEA to bring back the scenario that pretends the solar, wind&EV booms will end next year. Only the consequences for commodity markets and global emissions will be much bigger...

Results from China’s first wind & solar auctions under the new pricing policy are out — starting with Shandong. Clearing prices for solar came in at very low levels that would largely make new solar projects unprofitable, but this isn't the showstopper it sounds like.

Our guide to reading China's upcoming climate targets once they come out. See the thread below for the details and full article 👇

Where is China in the energy transition? In our latest episode of Solving for Climate we chat with @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social about all things China and climate. Listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/1FFO...

Breaking: The value of China’s exports of clean energy technologies hit a new all-time record in July, passing the previous high from March 2023. China exported $18.4 bln worth of solar and wind power equipment, EVs and batteries during the month.

New research from our China team and @GlobalEnergyMon shows that even as permitting of new coal plants has moderated in China, announcements of new projects - that will seek permits soon - are running hot.

@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social: "China's total power demand was up 9% year-on-year in July, compared with 4% in Jan-Jun and around 5% projected for the whole year. That explains the jump in coal&gas-fired power generation in July as I expected."

I've told people for years that the data center and AI electricity demand scare is dramatically overdone. Here's some data from Google: The median Gemini Apps text prompt uses 0.24 Wh of energy, emits 0.03 grams CO2, and consumes 0.26 ml (or about five drops) of water...

Finnish energy humor. News story: Google data center waste heat to provide heating for almost entire town of Hamina (pop 19,500) Me Googling in the middle of the night: "Since there's a game called backgammon, is there also frontgammon" A shivering Hamina resident: Thank you

I want energy to be clean and abundant. I get people who just want it to be abundant. I really don't get people who want it to be dirty and scarce. No better way to hurt investment of all kinds than this.

NEW from me: Clean energy growth helped China’s CO2 emissions fall 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending a declining trend that started in March 2024. Power sector CO2 fell 3% as growth in solar power alone matched the rise in electricity demand.

🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: Record solar growth keeps China’s CO2 falling in H1 2025 🌿 ☀️ CO2 output of the nation’s power sector fell by 3% in H1 2025 as growth in solar power alone matched the rise in electricity demand @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-rec...

Predictably, the record-hot, dry July pushed China's power demand up sharply and resulted in a jump in power generation from coal and gas, which was up 4% from July last year. Hydropower generation fell 10%. Year-to-date, power generation from coal and gas is down 1.3%.

NEW from us: Last year, China started construction on an estimated 95 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity, enough to power the entire UK twice over. We explain why China's still building new coal power plants, and when and how it might stop and begin phasing out.

China Electricity Council downgraded their power demand growth forecast for the year and increased projected solar power capacity additions to ~310 GW, after their previous forecast of ~210 GW was already hit in H1. Numbers align closely with mine and imply a likely fall in power sector emissions.

Explaining once again how to make sense of China's power generation data: -National Bureau of Statistics reports power generation from "above-scale" firms by technology. This is quite comprehensive for thermal, hydro and nuclear, but substantially under-reports wind and is next to useless for solar.

Important data drop that I've been waiting for on China's massive solar installations in H1: 🌞 solar power capacity additions doubled year-on-year to 212 gigawatts, with total capacity at the end of H1 increasing a whopping 54% year on year

So this is what the EU and China were able to agree on climate. Nothing groundbreaking but some positive elements. Promising to align new 2035 emission targets with the 1.5/well below 2 degree temperature goal is good.

Shifting to recycled steel production is one of the two biggest emission reduction opportunities in China over the next decade, as shown by our analysis. There has been no progress on this front despite government targets, as the sector has lacked meaningful incentives.

New from me: How China's clean energy manufacturing boom is helping reduce CO2 emissions overseas. In 2024, China’s exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles are shaved 1% off global emissions outside of China.

Power generation from coal and gas was flat year-on-year in China in the second quarter, falling in April and inching up 1% in both May and June. Crude steel output fell no less than -9% and cement output by 5% - these are the two highest-emitting industrial sectors.