RCP8.5 was never a prophecy; it was the “burn baby burn” pathway. Renewables got cheap, so RCP8.5 is now implausible. Current policy still points near ~3°C, just a smaller disaster. Hopefully 3°C soon looks as implausible as RCP8.5. Maybe even thx to an orange in charge who drives up fossil prices.

US withdrawal from Paris takes effect today. Our new analysis shows progress, and defines the gap to 1.5°C that we can still (and must) close. The report: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs... ; The summary: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs...

🇨🇳 📰 NEW | Analysis: #China’s #CO2 #emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-18-months/ @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social w/ @carbonbrief.org

📣 We just released a new free resource at @climatecentral.org - a 72-slide deck introducing key facts about climate change, including its causes, impacts, and solutions. It also comes with speaker notes and links for local storytelling. ➡️ www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt... (English & Spanish)

We have put out some new NDC snapshots. Check them out: www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs?v.... The latest is the Chinese NDC that sets an emissions reduction of 7–10% below the peak by 2035, moving from a carbon intensity goal to an absolute target. This enhances transparency and accountability.

Our new brief “Pre-COP30: how are temperatures tracking on the latest targets?” is here: www.climate-resource.com/reports/ndcs... #ClimateAction #COP30 #ClimateFinance

We’ve also created NDC Snapshots: quick assessments of recent #NDCs. Explore them here: 🌍 www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs?v... We’re here to share how science meets action and we’re excited to connect, collaborate, and exchange ideas. #ClimateScience #GHG #ClimateRisk @ipcc.bsky.social

We're sharing some recent work contributing to CMIP7. We delivered updated historical GHG concentrations and are now helping finalise future climate scenario concentrations. Read our publication in Geoscientific Model Development with our work for CMIP7 @egu.eu 👉 gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

Podcast in Nature! www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Simon Holmes à Court pays $15,000 to put climate scientist on ‘mystery flight’ with Sussan Ley

A must read, devastating, Report by Francesca Albanese (UN Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967) on the global economic foundations of the Palestinians' genocide: THE ECONOMY OF GENOCIDE. Please share! www.ohchr.org/en/documents...

"Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it" - Hannah Arendt, the origin of totalitarism

This bluesky space becomes enjoyable. Just posted my probably last ever 'X'... An entry into the competition for best Tesla bumper stickers, now that he is full throttle for fossil fuels and everything else Trump stands for. LET HIM GO TO MARS.

NEW – COP29: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Baku #COP29 ➡️ https://buff.ly/3V5jndk

After net zero CO2 emissions do you want to halt or continue global warming? If you want to halt global warming, the point of getting to net zero emissions, then we better define it correctly! The key is how “removals” are defined & the role humans play. doi.org/10.1038/s415... 1/

A new paper led by Sebastian Sippel just appeared in Nature arguing that ocean temperature measurements in the early 20th century have a cold bias. It's a fun story illustrating the process of scientific discovery, so let me talk about it a bit. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Understanding the consequences of potential overshoot above the 1.5°C warming level has been the focus of the PROVIDE project and the work by a great group of interdisciplinary authors has just been published in @natureportfolio.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41... Here’s what we found: 1/

Wow, didn't realise Germany's coal power output was down by two-thirds in a decade It's currently on track for a virtual phaseout by 2030!

Explain it to me like I am a fifth grader... That was the goal in this article with @meinshausen.bsky.social: "We Are Not on Track: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Higher Than Ever!" Did we succeed? kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10....

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are just one element of a bigger puzzle. Should scenarios start at concentration, or emissions, or socioeconomics? Should they start at temperature and go backwards? All have advantages... gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/... 1/

All this, and more, is discussed in a new review & perspective piece in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD), led by @meinshausen.bsky.social Please read and continue the discussion: geoscientific-model-development.net 4/4

The effective amount of Petroleum Resource Rent Tax collected by the Australian government as a share of oil & gas revenues has collapsed, as we point out in our submission to the Treasury. #Auspol #Auspol2024 climateanalytics.org/publications...

Coal is the first one to exit, if we want to put ourselves on track to meet the long-term Paris agreement goals. By 2030 or 2035 at the latest. Other fossil fuels to follow swift. Let's hope that COP28 will have clear wording in the end. Full briefing here: www.climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

The latest temperature assessments of the NDCs and LT-LEDS pledges by countries - and how they fair against the Paris Agreement temperature goals? Surprise: We are still quite far off 1.5C. Here an overview of all the main studies. See more at: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

Entering the 1.5C world, it's time for a fossil fuel exit. Phase-in of renewables is key, but only replaces fossil fuel (emissions), if married with strong energy efficiency and dedicated coal, oil and gas phase-out policies. Full briefing: climate-resource.com/tools/ndcs

1/ Halbzeit für die Ampel! Also, falls sie bis zum Ende durchhält. Wie steht es nach zwei Jahren 🚦 um die Energiewende? @aroth.bsky.social, @adelinegueret.bsky.social, @fsschmidt.bsky.social & ich haben aus diesem Anlass ein kleines Special zum Ampel-Monitor Energiewende des @diw.de veröffentlicht.

'Great success' of small modular reactors: Magnox produces weapons grade plutonium in North Korea. Other plans burn through cash. Relaxing that one doesn't have to argue any more on grounds of risks, waste, nuclear proliferation, etc. Economis sort it out. reneweconomy.com.au/small-modula...

“The situation is nothing short of horrific – where is humanity? Millions of civilians are being collectively punished in full view of the world, there can be no justification for using starvation as a weapon of war" www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

How can people, who suffered so much, create so much suffering?

Ban on nuclear is rational: 1. We don't need it. There is no future role for baseload. 2. We don't want to waste money. Nuclear is crazy expensive. 3. We don't want the waste. Nuclear waste is unlike banana peels. 4. Nuclear proliferation @simonahac.bsky.social www.theage.com.au/politics/fed...

IEA dropping the update on the 2021 net zero roadmap and the message is clear: “we can get there, but you gotta trust the cheaper renewables we’ve got laying around” (Greensky Climatesky)

The next generation of scenarios is not only important for climate modelling, but has also strong implications for whether we will generate useful data to support informed decision making. Would be great to have your input on our input to the debate (by 1 Nov) gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gm...

Since we are discussing benefits of tree planting, I thought I’d weigh in. 1) Trees are an important near term carbon sink. We should plant more and protect those we have. 2) We should not let folks justify emitting more fossil CO2 by planting trees. www.nytimes.com/2022/06/04/o...

What does the @IPCC_CH AR6 say about GHG emission metrics (GWP, GTP, GWP* etc)? This was covered in an in-session workshop at the June #SB58 subsidiary bodies meeting of the @UNFCCC. A nerdy thread on the findings from WGIII from a mitigation perspective🧵1/26 (re-post from twitter, sorry)