New pump up music just dropped. See you on the other side of the shutdown youtu.be/TA9deCtUNGM?...

GOOD MORNING FOLKS!

Getting an email at 11:25am eastern with an action that's due by close of business September 30th.

My string of #Helene talks comes to an end this Friday in Downtown Asheville. If you're around, please join us!

Moment of Zen: High Falls, DuPont Stare Forest, North Carolina.

This is PRECISELY why folks can't take just one forecast and use it as gospel over a period of time. The models for #TD9 were super tricky, and 48 hours ago we were thinking about a landfall in the Carolinas as a possibility. Now it's going to take a literal right turn!

“If it hits you, it’s just not your day.” 90% of people struck by lightning survive but many have lifelong injuries. We still see around 20 deaths from lightning every year in the U.S. We’ve seen 5 deaths in the U.S. in September alone.

The best course of action right now remains to continue monitoring your trusted sources for forecast updates, especially in the Bahamas and along the coast in the Carolinas, and ensure you have hurricane plans prepared in case of major impacts. (graphic from NHC)

Western NC: Keep Calm and Be Prepared #NCwx

Here is our evening update on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, a system likely to become Imelda, hit the Bahamas, and then threaten the coastal Carolinas with very heavy rain. Details on the rainfall scenarios. #ncwx #scwx

Woof #PTC9

Helene was also PTC9

We continue to monitor Hurricane Humberto and AL94 in the Atlantic. Make sure to check hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast.

The tropical wave labeled 94L (no, I won't name it in advance) has warm water, moderate to low vertical wind shear, and plenty of moist air ahead of it. The system is partly over land today, delivering heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

As we approach the 1 year anniversary of #Helene, I have one final thread for you. Most of my posts this week are about the meteorology and hydrology of the event, but there's one aspect of the storm I haven't covered yet. And that's the photography.

@nws.noaa.gov at it kicking ass with the messaging about potential impacts in the SE. Keep an eye on their messaging as this is a tricky forecast and it will change #NCWX weather.gov/gsp/brief

One of the things I think our #Helene interactive dashboard does really well is highlight the difference between the "meteorology" and "hydrology" of the storm. t.co/lzFv6oyw47

Thanks to employees of @nws.noaa.gov for showing me this snazzy tool. I posted this a year ago as #Helene made its way to Southern Appalachia. 2 takeaways 1) Water was our biggest threat 2) Vulnerable communities have a harder time recovering from disasters like this Don't forget about them

Great analysis by these folks. Proud to have them analyze events in our state. Their mesonet is cool too! #NCwx

Here's a closer look at Western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina as the PRE and #Helene rainfall made its way through. Red is Flash Flood Warning, Purple is Flash Flood Emergency. #NCwx #SCwx @jasonboyercbm.bsky.social @wxbrad.bsky.social @timbuckleywx.bsky.social

Here is a look of #Helene and the Predecessor Rainfall Event, which began setting up around this time a year ago. I updated this to incorporate the @nws.noaa.gov flash flood warnings and flash flood emergencies. #FLwx #GAwx #ALwx #SCwx #NCwx #TNwx @spann.bsky.social @wxbrad.bsky.social

If @ametsoc.org or @nwas.org ever gave out a "Graphic of the Year" award, it should go to Jay Cordeira, displaying the synoptics behind the Predecessor Rainfall Event before #Helene It's an amazing graphic and displays our double whammy of 'rain and then more rain.'

Even a year after #Helene, scientists at UNCA and @ncstate-ncics.bsky.social are still analyzing the event. Lots of good science to work on!

Thanks to @drkimwood.bsky.social for making this graphic of #Helene. What I find interesting is that it wasn't in Southern Appalachia for that long. But the predecessor rainfall event that came before Helene was the 1-2 punch that brought devastation to the area.

GOOD

One year ago, the first advisories were coming out for #Helene. Props to the NHC and @nws.noaa.gov for an amazing job communicating this event.

Uhhhhh

Some rockstars in the area, including Trisha Palmer of @nws.noaa.gov, John Uehling of @ncstate-ncics.bsky.social, Phillip Prince and Stephanie Pilkington spoke to @wlos-13.bsky.social about how #Helene changed our area, and what we can do to prepare for the next one www.youtube.com/watch?v=noYa...

Today is the nth day of climatological rapture

"We have spent the last days having thoughtful conversations with Jared, and after those conversations, we reached the decision to return the 'Jared Is Miserable' Index on Tuesday."

You're going to hear a lot of stories about #Helene this week. I humbly ask that if you have time, to hear mine. The Buncombe County Special Collections interviewed me a month ago to talk about my experiences covering weather disasters while living one. helenehistory.omeka.net/items/show/1...

GOOD

I am constantly reminded that while #Helene impacted lots of folks in NC/TN, there were impacts elsewhere too like upstate SC and northern GA Good assessment by @drshepherd2013.bsky.social #GAwx www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

I’m in one of the best rooms in North Carolina. Ask me anything!

ICYMI: NOAA and NCEI published a #Helene perspective as we approach the 1 year anniversary. It was embedded in the Story map, but we built an interactive dashboard where you can see rain estimates and flood heights for Southern Appalachia. Check it out! noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboa...

Find someone who loves you the way Stewart, Colbert, and Oliver loves calling out bullshit.

We are SO back! #BestSeason

Something @noaa.gov and NCEI are starting are weekly monitoring reports, performing a quick, rapid reaction analysis to notable weather events that happened. The first one just came out, and includes the northeast drought and the 9/14 outbreak up in the Dakotas. www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

I hate this map because it clearly skews the color scheme towards the higher values, making areas outside of the FL/Gulf Coast seem not as bad. Can we PLEASE do a different scale, and maybe slap just the Carolinas on here?

Today is the second day of climatological “Strike Force Five”

This new experimental tool from WPC is pretty snazzy. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/ And yes I know it's called the URBAN rain rate dashboard, but as a Helene survivor, I'm sitting here in Asheville, NC lilke.....

It Begins One year ago today, the National Hurricane Center issued this outlook, drafted by @ericblake12.bsky.social , indicating "an area of low pressure could form this weekend over the Caribbean Sea" #Helene www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtw...

*taps the sign*

GOOD!

For me, it’s therapeutic to tell the story, and remind people that recovering from a disaster takes a loooooong time. cc: @samlmontano.bsky.social

I was today years old when I found out this was Robert Redford. I always assumed it was @deke-arndt.bsky.social

I’m proud to say that @noaa.gov and NCEI has released a 1 year retrospective on #Helene using ESRI Story Maps. arcg.is/aqCD4 Here is a brief thread of how this came to be and how NOAA can still do good things (even while wearing pajamas).

Gonna be a good week. More soon 👀

I'd like to remind people that we were saying the same thing last year too, before #Helene and #milton

Someone's having a Monday.