11/11/1911...arguably the nation's most extreme cold front. But there's one juxtaposition in southern Wisconsin that makes this one of the most bizarre weather events in U.S. history.

Soccer players in a whiteout.

Most jarring to me about the Edmund Fitzgerald was the evidence suggesting its sinking happened in just *seconds*, rather than the prolonged event you may be familiar with from the Titanic. 50 years ago this evening.

Among over 3 dozen daily record lows that may fall by the wayside Tuesday morning, this Veterans Day cold snap could be among the coldest so early on record in Florida and the Southeast. Fortunately, it won't last long. Perspective 👇

2 most intriguing weather games this weekend: - #9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa: Weather only a "duck" could love. - NY Giants @ Chicago Bears: A passing, kicking challenge with cold wind howling from end zone to end zone. Flurry or snow shower, too?

This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993. About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day. More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...

There's a good chance you've seen this infamous video if you've taken any science, physics, or engineering class. The Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse happened 85 years ago today. weather.com/science/weat...

For some, it will be their first snow of the season ahead this weekend. Then, the lake-effect snow machine kicks into gear for the first time this season. Deets, perspective 👇

Last night: Nov. record setting Atlantic Canada "bomb cyclone", very nearly an all-time record low pressure for Newfoundland. Now: Pacific storm moving ashore right now with high winds. Late today-early Thu: Locally damaging winds possible in the Northeast. #November 🌬️🍃

Starting to see a few daily record lows and cold highs entering into play in the Southeast early next week. How about daytime highs struggling to reach the low 50s along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday? Fortunately, this cold won't last long.

"November can be cold and gray. November can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.” (John Facenda, NFL Films) With that in mind, here's our cold blast forecast and perspective.

Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar. 2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after. A remarkable evolution 🌀

It's a virtual certainty there will not be another Atlantic Basin storm named "Melissa" going forward. Here's why:👇

Here are all the Category 5 segments of the 45 known Cat 5 Atlantic Basin hurricanes since 1924, with Melissa's 36-hour segment highlighted.

While Melissa carves through eastern Cuba, bands of heavy rain are *still* soaking Haiti. I believe a post from @drmetwatch.bsky.social Tuesday would imply that today is day 8 of at least locally heavy rain in Hispaniola. E flank outer bands of TCs are frequently signif. flash flood generators.

A graphic that will live in infamy. 😥 Record tying intense Atlantic Basin hurricane landfall.

Concerned for the area around Black River, Jamaica for surge flooding, apart from catastrophic wind, rainfall flood impacts. SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.

A bit "apples and oranges" as tornado winds are almost always estimated from damage and hurricane winds can last much longer... ...but these peak sustained winds in Melissa are in the EF4 range. Some gusts could be EF5 in the hills/mountains, etc.

Melissa is moving up the list of most extreme Atlantic hurricanes and could be a record intense Atlantic Basin landfall. Our lists we're updating continuously through landfall 👇

While most attention is rightfully on Jamaica with Cat. 5 Melissa...note also the trailing bands of heavy rain pumping into southwestern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula. Likely rainfall rates of several inches per hour into an extremely flash flood, mudslide prone area.

Melissa is forecast to be the Atlantic Basin's first Category 5 landfall today since Dorian on Sept. 1, 2019. Quite an elite list of Cat. 5 Atlantic landfalls. Melissa will be among them by both pressure and winds.

"The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall." These men and women are not being paid due to the US government shutdown. Not to mention that according to AOML's director emeritus Robert Atlas, they are down 40-50% staff. #Melissa

NOAA TDR showing evidence that a secondary eyewall is beginning to form, seen by the ring of larger vorticity and vertical velocities outside the inner eyewall. This signals Melissa has likely peaked in intensity, but the inner core wind field will begin to expand.

Melissa's peak winds could "weaken slightly" before landfall. That could happen if it replaces its eyewall in an "eyewall replacement cycle". But that would make Melissa's wind field *larger*, even while its peak winds tick down a tad. That's what happened when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Of the 45 Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes since 1924: - 3 have happened this season - 13 have happened the past 10 years - 17 have made a Cat5 landfall More about Cat 5s: 👇

Classic eye of an intense hurricane sampled by the Hurricane Hunters thius morning. Pressure plunge, double spike wind max passing through both eyewalls, temperature spike in eye.

Here are the only 2 previous Cat 5 hurricanes that passed within 70 miles of Jamaica in NOAA's database. Neither made landfall, there. Regardless of Cat 4 or 5, Melissa will, unfortunately, make history.

Only 8 Cat. 4 or 5 hurricanes have tracked within 60 nautical miles of Jamaica in ~175 years of NOAA records. Melissa could be the first to make landfall, there, as a Cat 4 or 5. (Gilbert '88 appeared to have done so as Cat. 3) History in the making, unfortunately.

Unsettling forecast for Jamaica, regardless of these 2 scenarios in a potential 3-5 day long lashing: 1. Hugs closer, winds less intense (land interaction), but torrential rain, winds. 2. Drifts south, becomes stronger hurricane before striking next week, with outer rainbands for days ahead.

105 years ago today, one of the most influential storm researchers of all time was born. Tetsuya Theodore “Ted” Fujita

Found an observation reporting some wet snow flurries this AM in the beautiful northwoods of Woodruff, WI.

With all the usual caveats, asterisks & disclaimers about forecasts 7 days out... ...could be an interesting East Coast system about this time next week. 🤔

10 years ago this morning: *215 mph* ...and quite the roller coaster ride on a Hurricane Hunter mission.

America's billion-dollar disasters since 1980 had a collective cost = France's GDP in 2024. Some takeaways from the just-released report from @climatecentral.org:

Marked reduction in shear by Friday. Typically large W. Caribbean ocean heat content. Lack of any dry air. Think we'll have a much different looking Melissa by this weekend. (Graphic kudos: @burgwx.bsky.social)

If I had a dollar for every time a tropical storm or hurricane forecast "trends west"... 😆

Getting flashbacks to Dorian, seeing this paltry forward speed from Melissa. Dorian did that while at Cat 5 intensity over the northwest Bahamas in one of the worst possible stalls (Harvey 2017 has its hand raised, too).

Likely no World Series weather issues this year. But that hasn't always been the case, particularly 28 years ago tonight.

Melissa could eventually become a formidably strong hurricane by early next week. But for now, rainfall flooding (mudslides) is my biggest concern in Hispaniola & Jamaica, especially. Deets: weather.com/storms/hurri...

There are still some ensemble model forecasts that are a bit faster. But the potential for Melissa to stall or move sluggishly for a time brings up several major concerns.

Our latest thinking on the upcoming saga regarding what is likely to become "Melissa".

The #NFL week 7 games that could have #weather headaches, including advice for your fantasy team.

While September is the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, several all-time tropical cyclone records have happened in October, not September.

Hard to believe we're at the halfway point of "meteorological fall". Here are the temp & precip season-to-date rankings from SERCC. One of warmest falls to date in N. Plains, Northwest, Texas. One of driest falls in Great Lakes, Southeast.

I've always loved looking at maps. Occasionally, I notice an island on our graphics software I've never seen before. Today, I learned about the Swan Islands, apparently only occupied by a Honduran naval garrison. These islands must have taken some pummeling from hurrricanes over the years.

It's been 28 years since an Atlantic hurricane season hasn't had a single storm track into the Caribbean Sea. That was during a strong El Niño. As always, the richest supply of deep, warm water in the Atlantic Basin is in the Caribbean Sea. Hopefully our luck won't run out later next week.

Still a consistent model signal for tropical development possible later next week in the central or western Caribbean Sea. Then, either "it" (Melissa) buries in C. America, or gets drawn north.

41 years ago tonight was one of the most memorable NFL bad weather games, including something that never happened in any other NFL game. weather.com/news/weather...

The last 24-hour period with at least 100 reports of severe t-storms in the U.S. was almost 6 weeks ago (Sept. 6). This month's severe map, so far, looks almost vacant. That may change Saturday. Here's what to know. weather.com/storms/sever...

Here is our comprehensive, updated forecast on the coastal storm/nor'easter and all of its potential impacts, from significant coastal flooding to high winds and flooding rain. weather.com/forecast/reg...