Another one today

I first wrote and cron’d the script that makes these @NWSSPC upper air maps in November 1998. It’s been running and making the twice-daily UA maps for the past 27 years at this URL: www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/. That’s over 138,000 maps online and it’s still going!

Just now

The Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska and northwest of Canada, has been slow to freeze over this autumn, with the rate of increase of sea ice extent way below normal since early October. Sea ice is slowly growing and expanding in the Chukchi and Bering Seas. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce

A local Maryland Dwarf Holly has berries now.

Our first pre 5pm sunset here. It recedes to 4:45 in early December before returning to 5pm January 5.

Managed to find this pair of Long-eared Owls this morning down at the lake. I've known this pair has called the lake home for a while now, but they've been extremely ellusive until now! #birds #raptors

Sunset

I can't believe I have to post this, but in these uncertain times, it's better to be prepared.

Bumper crop of vultures at Hughes in Gburg. It’s still unclear if they’re using the windows for their reflection or hunting something up there. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Pressure trace from the Red Island Shoal in Placentia Bay, wow, 945 mb. Radar image at that time. #nlwx

St. Pierre, in “oceanic France” just south of Newfoundland, dropped to 946 hPa as this cyclone passed by at 5pm their time (2000 UTC). They do not seem to be part of the “funky” Newfoundland time zone.

Disturbed weather moving west-northwest through the northwest Caribbean.

Sometimes when you go to take a fall foliage picture, it reverses on you. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Fun times. Notice the unnamed storm — which was cold core — didn’t impact their TS count. 🐻⌚️

I've seen it. Basically it's just a wall of mesovortices. Reserved for the absolute top tier of intense hurricanes. Left is from Ian. Right is from Michael

The likely place to check on status of Jamaica if all communications goes down after Hurricane Melissa hits is the C.E.W.N: Caribbean Emergency and Weather Net. It's likely an SDR in the Caribbean or RemoteHams will be necessary to hear traffic, although the SDRs […] [Original post on ai6yr.org]

This time with fewer typos…

For federal employees, our first full missed paycheck will occur this weekend. If you know one, do what you can to help them out if they need it. Some of us have significant others who work or other circumstances and will be okay. But for many, things are about to get very tight.

Nice fall rainbow here in Albany!

Overnight guidance has continued to abandon Melissa turning NE into Hispaniola, and is increasingly concentrated on a west track south of Jamaica - a scenario which could easily support a category 5 hurricane in an exceptionally favorable environment for intensification.

While I continue to build a full viewer for the new 360-member Grand Ensemble, plots of the latest available data are now live on my website for Melissa (link below) and any other storm there is data for: polarwx.com/tropical/?st...

Man

The Caribbean convective system looks even better. Near 100% in the TWO tends to telegraph advisories the next cycle, in this case 15z.

The disturbance in the eastern Caribbean. This is the second morning in a row where organization has improved from the previous day. 🐻⌚️

i feel like i need to share this oldie but a goodie today

Not something you see every day in October. Cloud streets off the West Coast. Cold air (below 10th percentile for this time of year) spilling down from Canada is moving over warmer-than-normal Pacific water is a recipe for these "cloud streets." #ORwx #WAwx #CAwx More: earthsky.org/earth/what-a...

A powerful nor'easter has been slamming into the East Coast since this weekend, bringing about heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal flooding all along the eastern seaboard.

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

Post-T.C. Jerry and T.S. Lorenzo. Lorenzo may become a threat to the Azores. 🐻⌚️

Autumn light over Loch Clair #Scotland #WesterRoss #Kinlochewe #Highlands www.damianshields.com

🌎 Let's take a look back at when Cyclone Errol was heading towards the coast of Western Australia on 16 April. In this @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social Sentinel-3 image, the typical pinhole eye – a small, well-defined eye often associated tropical cyclones – is clearly visible.

A convective, and per TAFB/NHC non-frontal, 1010 hPa low has formed over South FL. Per OPC, gale force winds already exist to its northeast. The cyclone should move north along the coast on succeeding days. 🐻⌚️

The moon this morning

Clockwise from the top: Priscilla with fresh convection, Raymond near the Mexican coast, and Post-T.C. Octave, moving generally in Raymond’s direction.

A strong coastal low will develop late this week & will bring significant impacts to much of the U.S. East Coast through early next week. There is potential for significant coastal flooding, strong rip currents & beach erosion, damaging wind gusts, & heavy rain. Stay up to date at weather.gov.

A new webpage for systems that cause very heavy rain/flooding but are not considered TCs has been developed. It’s basic, and a start. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/rot...

Fun neutercane in the middle of an occluded low northwest of the Azores. NHC usually seems to feel better about a subtropical or tropical designation once cloud tops cool to -60C. We’re about 10C away from that level. 🐻⌚️

Another week, another exposed category 2 hurricane. This time, it’s Priscilla. Jerry isn’t ideal either. So long as Jerry remains this sheared, it can track more west, which would increase rain for the Leewards, Virgin Islands, & maybe Puerto Rico. Its future as a TC is more in doubt, too.

The 10 highest temperatures this afternoon across the state are all above 88°F...We event hit 88 in Door County!

Upgraded from an iPhone 14 Pro Max to an iPhone 16 Pro Max recently. The zoom-in on the 17 was the same as the 14 (with the 16 having higher zoom-in) so it wasn’t worth it. For a longer version of the squirrel video: #Squirrel with a #nut — early #October2025 youtu.be/nru7KdxIvwA

sep 30 // oct 1

Got last nights sunset from the drone.

Some dusk imagery. A more complete slideshow is located here: Late #September2025 #dusk youtu.be/EWhgpobqXL4

Thank you, important upper level trough

The synoptic setup for Potential TC Nine has evolved. The most important is the upper low near the Southern Appalachians. No model related issues with steering features are causing model uncertainty. (1 of X)

Crepuscular rays and shadows.

6" of fresh snow at Winter Park...not bad for September! #COwx