“problems began in early 2022, when a mass of sea ice detached from the … glacier’s front and its floating ice tongue disintegrated. The removal of this stabilising ice exposed the glacier to new stresses, causing its flow and thinning rates to accelerate” Coming everywhere 🔜 x.com/newscientist...

“It's to a point of unsustainability.” www.npr.org/2025/11/13/n...

“The diminished ability to study, monitor, forecast, warn for, and recover from more intense hurricanes and other hazards like flooding, heat waves and wildfires was—and continues to be—a source of unease.” www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

“Sadly for Jamaica, I have every reason to believe that when accounting for direct and indirect fatalities as well as long-lasting morbidity and mental health impacts, the human toll reported so far from Hurricane Melissa is only the tip of the iceberg.” www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

“Extreme weather events are coming for you. They’re coming for ya!” — part of this interview

This week's full moon, known as the Beaver Moon, will be a #supermoon. It will reach full phase a few hours before perigee (its closest approach to Earth). As the closest super moon of 2025 it will be the brightest as well. (via @rtphokie.bsky.social)

"Personal experiences cut through abstract statistics and political debates. When someone has lived through a devastating flood or heat wave, the risks of climate change become much more tangible and harder to dismiss." phys.org/news/2025-10...

The first earlier standard time #sunrise over Biscayne Bay was nice. (end of #daylightsavingtime)

Thank you @cleoinstitute.bsky.social for the Circle of Change Award: “At a time when climate coverage faces unprecedented political pressure and censorship, John and the…team of @nbcmiami.com & Telemundo 51 continue to lead with science-driven facts and courage.” www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/j...

"When you think of #Melissa, think Andrew in South Florida, Maria in Puerto Rico, Ivan in Grenada, or Dorian in the Bahamas. It's a humanitarian event." — Marlon A. Hill on @wlrn.org You want to help #Jamaica and the Caribbean directly? See www.sflcaribbeanstrong.org

"I don’t need to tell you that I am quite distressed about this new era of abnormally hot Atlantic waters and the catastrophic hurricanes that come as a result. Like it or not, you should be concerned too." My reflections on Hurricane #Melissa for @nbcmiami.com. www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

Same, same. “Forty years later, when I look at satellite imagery and other data on hurricanes and extreme weather, I often cannot believe my eyes. Most of these mind-boggling events have a potential link to climate change.” 🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

"Extreme weather events fueled by climate change are increasing and making me change. I’ve always been authentic [...] but I can no longer be non-alarmist. People need to realize that this is not going to stop until we cut down on greenhouse gas [emissions]." @msnbc.com www.msnbc.com/ana-cabrera-...

"I feel compelled to make people realize that this is not going away, that this is going to continue to happen over and over again, and that we need to harden ourselves in every possible way and adapt to these increasing disasters." —part of yesterday's #Melissa coverage on @nbcmiami.com

"This is going to be the worst disaster in the history of #Jamaica. And what I’m worried about is the long term, the lasting effects of the hurricane upon their region." As seen earlier on @camanpour.bsky.social @cnnipr.bsky.social and today on @pbs.org 📺 www.cnn.com/2025/10/28/t...

At NBC 6 since 4 am and until Melissa’s landfall this morning. Impacts in Jamaica are increasing as their strongest hurricane on record approaches. Winds 175 mph (280 km/hr) with gust factor of 1.5x➕ speeded up by hills & mountains. 13 ft (4 m) storm surge. 30-40 inches (1000 mm) storm total precip

At 901 millibars minimum central barometric pressure, #Melissa is the strongest hurricane ever recorded so late in a season in the Atlantic. It is also the 8th strongest Atlantic #hurricane during any part of the season. It is now sadly moving north-northeast towards #Jamaica.

During Melissa’s rapid intensification the storm drifted slowly over exceptionally warm ocean waters that were 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than average — these conditions were made up to 700 times more likely because of human-caused climate change. (via @climatecentral.org) 1/2

To the point where they've had to reach out to retired staff to man some flights.

Melissa, now with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/hr) and capable of gusts to 260+ mph (425+ km/hr) on windward hilltops, 40" (1000 mm) of rain, and a 13 ft (4 m) storm surge, has started the feared turn to the northwest. First NW then north is the forecast. #Jamaica #HurricaneAlert

My thesis at @jhuartssciences.bsky.social hypothesized that bird takes during southward migration in busier hurricane seasons could mean fewer returning neotropical migrants in the spring. I feel for these little guys. See the remarks section of the ~1 pm Vortex Data Message in Melissa.

Pressure down to 908 millibars, making #Melissa already the 11th strongest #hurricane on record in the Atlantic. It is still strengthening. Next on the list are Mitch (1998) and Dean (2007) at 905 mb. Sustained winds are up to 165 mph (270 km/hr). Topography can accelerate 1.5x✚

"The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall." These men and women are not being paid due to the US government shutdown. Not to mention that according to AOML's director emeritus Robert Atlas, they are down 40-50% staff. #Melissa

🌀5️⃣‼️☹️

Doing this on a moonless night can't be fun. Pressure dropping precipitously, which will lead to continued strengthening. #Melissa is shooting for Category 5 intensity—third in Atlantic this year! It's likely to reach it. All signs point to a landfall in #Jamaica very early Tuesday. #HurricaneAlert

"Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected." — expected impacts from #Melissa in #Jamaica according to NHC, which adds, "Seek shelter now." At 5pm Sunday, the #hurricane is Cat 4, winds 145 mph.

Category 4 🚨 Major Hurricane Melissa 5:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 Location: 16.3°N 76.3°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 140 mph (image via @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)

Over the past 21 hours Hurricane #Melissa has undergone rapid intensification (RI). Nearly 80% of major hurricanes go through RI cycles to attain their devastating intensities. In the case of this cyclone, I believe we'll see Extreme RI with a gain of 58 mph or more in 24 hours. #Jamaica

"Needless to say there is a very serious situation in terms of catastrophic rainfall wind and storm surge hazards for Jamaica and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area" NHC explicitly calling for #Melissa to be a Cat 5 #hurricane on approach to #Jamaica (img @bmcnoldy.bsky.social)

I'm awaiting the official declaration that Melissa is a hurricane. The satellite image shows an initial slow trend for a west motion. But clouds still extend across most of Hispaniola with rain (under the brightest clouds) still near the Dominican Republic. Over 20" of rain has fallen. #Melissa

Melissa suddenly has acquired that look. No sooner did the hostile wind shear relax than the first rapid intensification cycle began. I fully expect +35 mph or more in 24 hours going back to 11 am. Water temperatures are top 3 hottest ever recorded. Yet another Cat 4-5 forming. #Melissa

“It’s not out of the question that three feet of rain could accumulate before it’s all said and done.” #Melissa www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

Thu 4 pm: The first rain gauge exceeding 300 millimeters of rain caused by #Melissa (starting Tuesday) is WeatherFlow station (Tempest instrument) no. 132600 located in Santo Domingo near Avenida Independencia in Jardines del Sur. Total 305.4mm = 12.02". Excessive rain will continue.

Thanks to @burgwx.bsky.social this image contains all tracks from last night’s model ensembles (both physical and AI) for newly formed #Melissa. Any track along or to the right of the mean (black line) spells days of excessive rain and life threatening floods in Haiti and parts of the Dominican Rep.

Uncertainty is high, but with only two to three days to prepare we must consider the potential for a tropical cyclone hitting Hispaniola this week. Sixty percent of models this morning indicate this. See DeepMind AI (FNV3), American GFS, European AI (AIFS), and US Navy. 1/

Tropical Wave Invest #98L reached Windward Islands Sunday. A tropical depression is likely by midweek. Half of the forecast models continue west into western Caribbean. The other half forecast a tropical storm or hurricane in Hispaniola no earlier than Wednesday, or well after. Uncertainty very high

“The International Energy Agency now projects that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will all peak before 2030, marking the beginning of structural decline rather than resurgence. The illusion of a fossil revival has unraveled under market realities.” www.forbes.com/sites/we-don...

The 🇺🇸 petrostate 🇺🇸 playground bully www.france24.com/en/live-news...

"Down the road we will be monitoring an easterly wave currently located SW of Cabo Verde. The wave is not expected to 'do a Lorenzo' in the MDR, but development chances will increase next week after the system has entered the Caribbean Sea." My @nbcmiami.com 📝 www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

More frequent & deeper sunny day #flooding in #Florida? Duh. According to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social Miami is in the midst of an unprecedented #KingTide event, with water above flood level since Oct 2 and forecast to continue as such until Oct 25. The future here is, um, 🌊wet bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/vk/

¡Comenzando ahora! 7 pm AST y EDT. Link para entrar abajo

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works. wmo.int/media/news/c... #fail #ActOnClimate

I was pleased to speak this weekend to dozens celebrating 10 years of citizen science at @fiuenvironment.bsky.social. Curiosity and a thirst for discovery are the foundation for scientific pursuits. When citizens partake in them, we add to the ranks of those that will stand up for #science.

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to see it does it make a sound? #Lorenzo

"Our government seeks to roll back the clock to a time when wild places had no defense against greed and the people had no voice to answer special interests. Do not acquiesce to the flouting of laws. History is keeping score." — @evesamples.bsky.social 🎁🔗 www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-e...

#Karen formed farther north & east than any other named storm on record. "[It] had been traversing waters running just under 2 °F warmer than normal, a condition made 4 times more likely by climate change according to @climatecentral.org Ocean Climate Shift Index." www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

Wind-wise, #Jerry has been a show about nothing. I have yet to find an instance of sustained winds above 20 mph in the Leeward Islands. But even as its center moves away and crosses the 20th parallel, flooding rains are impacting Antigua & other islands. Flood advisories posted.

"At a time when #climate coverage faces unprecedented political pressure & censorship, John and the duopoly team of @nbcmiami.com & @telemundo51.com continue to lead with science-driven facts and courage. Climate courage matters...” Congrats to all my colleagues 🎉 www.nbcmiami.com/weather/stor...

This afternoon Tropical Storm #Jerry passed within ~40 miles of NOAA buoy 41040 located about 470 nautical miles E of Martinique. Winds were sustained at 45 mph, gusting to 65 mph. Seas were 22 feet! The lowest pressure was 29.62 inches of mercury or 1003 millibars. www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page...

Tropical Storm #Jerry poses a marginal threat to the northeastern Caribbean. The storm has turned west-northwest already and is expected to turn further northbound between Thursday and Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for some of the Leeward Islands. It looks to miss PR by a safe distance.