Winter Storm Hernando: The Retail Surge is Happening Right Now. $1.5B in Weekend Sales Pulled Forward as 34,500 Retailers See 45% Traffic Surge Ahead of Sunday Snowfall open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

Hassett under fire for calling for ny fed researchers to be “disciplined.” www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

The job market “is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs .. the fastest way to boost the job market would be for the Supreme Court to declare the reciprocal tariffs unlawful and for lawmakers to let them become a thing of the past.” @markzandi.bsky.social

Winter’s grip slips. Consumers re-enter. Cabin fever breaks. Animal spirits stir. But is this a real turn — or a premature thaw? Rumors of winter’s death may be greatly exaggerated. My take on the impact on retail and restaurants ... www.g2weather.com/p/g2-weather...

open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

Unless it rains www.marketwatch.com/story/less-t...

The @wsj.com sees an "unrelenting" consumer; I see a Macro Mirage. The 90% aren’t browsing—they’re waiting on the thermometer. If the cold doesn't hit, the sale is skipped. Come for the analysis, stay for the Iggy Pop White Christmas. www.g2weather.com/p/the-k-shap... cc: @steveliesman.bsky.social

My latest dispatch … open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

NEW: G2 Weather Signal Flash Report. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every Monday by 8 AM ET. open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

Breaking: FIFA announces another new award. Just received the Golden Medal for 'Wind Power.' #WorldCup2026

Holiday shopping slip slidin' away? Come for the holiday-season weather/retail analysis ... stay for the Paul Simon. cc: @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @steveliesman.bsky.social www.g2weather.com/p/black-frid...

When the Weather Upstages the Climate Agenda www.g2weather.com/p/when-a-cli...

Same quarter. Same macro. Same 1% weather drag. Lowe’s beat. Home Depot missed. That’s not weather — that’s execution. My full analysis just dropped. Read it here: www.g2weather.com/p/same-weath...

The Fall Weather Dividend That Shouldn’t Surprise You — But Might Surprise Wall Street cc: @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @steveliesman.bsky.social www.g2weather.com/p/the-fall-w...

Who’s eating the tariffs? You, mostly. @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/t...

PEGGY NOONAN: “.. You know why people say something’s wrong with this guy? Because it appears something is wrong with this guy.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

These are precedented times and the precedent is a loud ass warning www.nytimes.com/1939/02/04/a...

Benji’s Fall Forecast www.g2weather.com/p/benjis-fal...

Mind the Gap: The Missing Link in the Weather Forecasting Revolution www.g2weather.com/p/mind-the-g...

Kohl’s Q2 Beat: Solid Execution Sets the Stage for a Fall "Weather-Driven" Upside Surprise www.g2weather.com/p/kohls-q2-b...

The AI agent race isn't about better forecasts. It's about building personal concierges that make your current weather app look like a wall thermometer. www.g2weather.com/p/your-weath...

Forget tariffs, interest rates, or consumer confidence—the biggest swing factor in retail is weather www.g2weather.com/p/forget-tar...

Lowe’s Q2: Weather Shifts Spark a Late-Quarter Comeback www.g2weather.com/p/lowes-q2-w...

TJX Defies the Heat, But October Could Tell the Real Story www.g2weather.com/p/tjx-defies...

Cooler temperatures shift consumer psychology into fall mode, giving retailers a tailwind heading into Q3. www.g2weather.com/p/cooler-tem...

open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

One of the most significant heat waves of the summer continues to build across the eastern half of the U.S. Heat alerts are in place for just shy of 100 million people in two dozen states. wapo.st/3IJGqHy

open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

When Warnings Aren't Enough: AI's Role in Revolutionizing Disaster Preparedness www.g2weather.com/p/when-warni...

Forecasts were fine but new information emerging on major NWS staff shortages (doubled since Jan) in Texas offices that may have hindered communication with local emergency officials. Also, learning there was no local warning system in affected areas. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/u...

My deep dive on whether there were adequate weather warnings for the catastrophic flooding in Texas. Mentions Alan Gerard Balanced Weather and Jordan McLeod. I am really interested in your thoughts on my take. www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

Sitting awkward 😎

My latest dispatch … open.substack.com/pub/paulewal...

Please welcome my wife @karendukess.bsky.social to Bluesky. She just published her second novel “Welcome to Murder Week” to great reviews. Available on Amazon, of course, but here’s a link to order from an independent bookstore. bookshop.org/p/books/welc... Bookshop.org US

'Stripes' is one of my all-time favorite movies and i still had to look hard to be sure this photo wasn't a still from it

Ken Burns Presents: A Soldier's Dispatch from the Front Lines in L.A.

Here's a graphic from the Stevenson and Wolfers introductory economics textbook. (It's a point of pride for me that no other textbook insists on this level of numeracy before presenting macro data.)

Facts

Notice that ICE keeps raiding work places to find these freeloading, illegal gang members.

...Chris Judge’s “A Daily Cloud” project [3/3]

cc: @jimcantore.bsky.social @stephanieabrams.bsky.social

NEW: After four months of reporting, ProPublica found that the warnings about Helene were eerily accurate. Yet, local residents remained largely unaware of the enormity of danger approaching as the storm closed in. By @jenniferberryhawes.bsky.social @mrsimon22.bsky.social @cgaribay.bsky.social

When the US president sources his tweet “according to news reports” he’s using a lesser standard than would be used by an average community newspaper. Or your Uncle Jack. He then opens the door for the charge to be reported by reputable news organizations who wouldn’t touch the story.

I’m forced to say something nice about the Phillies. This is spectacular.

A National Weather Service office in Kentucky was scrambling to cover the overnight forecast on Friday as severe storms moved through much of the eastern U.S. The office is one of several left without an overnight forecaster as a result of cuts ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency.