A younger me would stay up to see the 2AM SPC Outlook

The Quarry 2 and Well Fires are going to town this afternoon immediately west of Miami near the wildland-urban interface. They’re producing heavy smoke over the north metro and deep pyrocumulus that could build into storms later.

Forecast soundings along warm front in IL and IN tomorrow are insane. Don't recall the last time I've seen > 100 kts of 0-6 km shear with an unstable thermo profile (below is from NAM 3km, but HRRR is similar). Multiple CAMs showing intense supercells training along or just north of the warm front.

Don’t say Gulf of America or Mexico in briefings challenge accepted. Gulf - period.

Up to 50% odds of development in the northwestern Gulf. Major flash, urban and river flooding a growing concern, especially from southeast TX into LA and MS. Tornado threat will be dependent on the low’s organization as it merges with a front Wednesday through Friday.

CIRES recently got to check out the new @noaa.gov Hail Cam! Hail melts quickly after falling, so it's difficult to know the true size of a hailstone. With the Hail Cam, researchers at NOAA NSSL can measure the size before it hits the ground to make radar estimates and warnings more accurate.

Boom

THANK you, KTLA

There have been hints on some ensemble guidance, but the 06Z ECMWF goes full-on brown ocean effect with the tropical disturbance the NHC has been monitoring. Will require saturating soils ahead of the disturbance. Still looks like a flooding threat this week even if it doesn’t materialize this way.

The Beltline arboretum is gorgeous right now, but you know what it could use (besides Beltline Rail)? Water. There should be refill stations with fountains for dogs at every entrance. It’s a design fail to not have any in a city as hot as Atlanta.

god has an opportunity to do the funniest thing

NY times covered our cut today (gift article) www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/s...

I’ll vote for any dem who promises to crack down on youtube fuckery.

ILX issues Tornado Emergency [tornado: OBSERVED, damage threat: CATASTROPHIC, hail: 2.00 IN] for Marshall [IL] till 5:45 PM CDT Link

Kid Rock when he gets there...

I don't know. but when food prices go up because of El Nino, can we call it ensoflation?

Fire activity in the West will be rockin’ by late June as a well agreed upon heat dome sets up over the western U.S. This is impressive agreement on a 594+ dm ridge in two weeks, centered somewhere near NM. The monsoon should get going. too.

JUST IN: El Nino forms and expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters News release + images: noaa.gov/news-release... #ElNino #ENSO @nws.noaa.gov and @noaa.gov

still have 200k power outages in IL from yesterday’s severe weather, and two more rounds of wind and potentially intense tornadoes are on the table today.

Amid dry weather and warming temperatures this week, we've seen drought degradation in central and eastern North Carolina, including the emergence of Exceptional Drought (D4) in the northern Piedmont. #ncwx

A wildfire burned 9,000 acres in Sioux County after sparking Tuesday afternoon and burning through the night. Gov. Jim Pillen ordered state National Guard troops to assist emergency personnel in fighting the fire. From Noelle Annonen/Nebraska Public Media News via Nebraska Examiner buff.ly/i9r3Gnt

8 AM EDT Wednesday, June 10: A broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche later this week. The system has a low chance (10%) of formation before it moves inland over eastern Mexico over the weekend. Follow the latest at htt... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2064693030041288932

Only a 10% chance of development in the southwestern Gulf, but it could contribute to flooding in Mexico and the southern US.

Also, 🌽 💦

The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) shows intense vegetation stress due to drought in the Southeast, parts of the High Plains, and to a lesser extent in other parts of the US. #VegDRI #drought #vegetation 🧪 vegdri.unl.edu/Home.aspx

There really is a tweet for everything

Yellow passionflowers are taking over the raspberries in my raised beds. Bonus passionflower bee in this shot.

New study finds increased wildfire smoke has erased 4 years of progress in controlling surface ozone pollution. "Premature deaths from fire-sourced ozone have increased by 318 deaths per year since 2013, with post-2013 mortality 46% higher than pre-2013 mortality." www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

NEW: U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy, who previously ran a company that provides aircraft for fighting wildfires, has proposed ending Forest Service inspections of those aircraft. One of the company’s aircraft failed an inspection because of a crack in its wing.

In 2025, 57% of the global ocean ranked among its five warmest years on record, even as La Niña developed. Our 2025 Ocean Heat Report confirms warming now overrides natural cooling cycles. Read the findings: doi.org/10.1007/s003... @wmo-global.bsky.social @michaelemann.bsky.social #Climatescience

will one scary climate-fueled anomaly save us from another scary climate-fueled anomaly

The off-ramp here is the potential for robust monsoon rainfall and/or remnant tropical moisture making it into the West. Almost seems unavoidable with the record warm water in the east Pacific. Just saw something similar in the Southeast - record dry areas Nov-April had their wettest May on record.

The popular wildfire tracking app is adding flood monitoring to its platform. It’s the first new disaster alert on the service, with many more to come.

“Surprisingly”, limiting upstream weather balloon launches makes field campaigns really hard to plan

TOMORROW (6/8) — NOAA Drought Seminar: Progress and challenges on understanding snow droughts in the western United States 🕚️: 11 am MT/1 pm ET 📍: Virtual 🔗: www.drought.gov/events/noaa-...

NASA Astronaut Jessica Meir aboard the ISS earlier today “There is a lot going on right now on the Space Station, but fortunately we are all safe and witnessed a spectacular southern aurora show yesterday thanks to a recent solar event.”

Very rapid strengthening of the El Niño ongoing as the current WWB continues. Passing +1°C anomalies with RONI, which means that soon it will be at moderate Niño strength. Crazy for early June!

I gotchu 🫡

WPC has initiates Key Messages for the impending heat wave over the eastern half of the U.S..

🧵(5/5) We probably need a couple more days to identify which scenario the forecast is trending towards. For now, a low-ish probability of tropical activity in the Gulf region in 7-10 days is in view, but no concrete threats exist yet.

Why in the year of our lordt 2026 is RPDR using nicki minaj in a lip sync for the win?

54% of the Contiguous U.S. had their 1st or 2nd warmest spring (Mar-Mar) since 1940. 🔥

Interesting to see CPC’s analog guidance picking up on 2021 for mid-month. The day 9 multi-ensemble mean depicts a 99th percentile ridge/heat dome near the PacNW (a touch west of ‘21). An extreme heat event and wildfire outbreak may be in the cards.

Interesting to see CPC’s analog guidance picking up on 2021 for mid-month. The day 9 multi-ensemble mean depicts a 99th percentile ridge/heat dome near the PacNW (a touch west of ‘21). An extreme heat event and wildfire outbreak may be in the cards.

Trump Writes Netanyahu Strongly Worded Check

Models aren't biting just yet, but it's worth watching the western Caribbean and southern Gulf come late next week as the Central American Gyre ramps up, enhancing storminess on the Atlantic side. Wind shear may slacken enough to open a window. More ⬇️

Federal government launches investigation into MARTA following 2 stabbings

another doja tweet has hit endor

As a follow up to yesterday’s post. This graph uses a different index (rONI) which accounts for the warming climate baseline and the tropical ocean mean outside the El Niño region during each time period. Here we see the 2026 dynamical model forecast is still the highest, but much less so… 1/