Snowy owl drama. Montrose Point, Chicago. #birds #birding #owls

You’re burnin’ it! 😂

Kinda wild to see increasing model support for a tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic heading into December. The Gulf has warmed back to near record levels for this time of year. Hopefully drought relief is the main impact if it materializes.

Welcome sign Felch, MI

Prelim record high of 81 in Atlanta today. Warmest so late in the year, and the only other 80-degree day between now and Feb. 7 was 80 on Nov. 27, 1973.

A polar vortex of confusion simonleewx.com/2025/11/20/a...

EXCLUSIVE: The Interior Department is consolidating employees and resources in its secretary’s office and charging its bureaus significant fees for the effort, according to staff and internal documents. buff.ly/Cu5jOBm

Over the next 10 days, changes in the stratosphere will upend weather patterns and set the stage for a cold, snowy December across parts of the Northern Hemisphere. https://cnn.it/4o0fcen

Kinda interesting to compare water year precipitation with snowpack at a continental scale. Most of the western US has been very wet since October 1, but there is almost no snowpack anywhere except at the very highest elevations because it has been so ridiculously warm. #hydrology #wx

We might be in a La Niña at the moment, but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño-like with a huge build-up of deep-layer westerly wind anomalies In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (Max Risk: Critical) at Nov 16, 16:19z Link

Windy wildflowers and grasses. Muhly grass and solidago line St George shoreline on Apalachicola bay #scape #seascape #muhlygrass #solidago #wildflowers #bloomscrolling #winds

New paper out! We document tornado-strength (98 mph) counter-rotating vortices that developed within California’s 2021 #DixieFire. These fire-generated vortices reshaped the fire front and spread, posing immediate risks to firefighters and civilians. doi.org/10.1175/MWR-...

It can get HOT in November, including today which saw temps soar close to 90 in SW OK. Getting closer to that all-time record high for the state of 95 set at Hollis back on Nov. 7, 2023 (also in Coalgate on Nov. 1, 1937). Tomorrow might be the day? #okwx #okmesonet

Robyn shares "Dopamine," first new single in 7 years www.brooklynvegan.com/robyn-shares...

Then USFS did a large firing operation on the Bald Mountain Fire today to bring it out to established containment lines - a wildfire effectively turned into a large prescribed fire. Still some risk for this to escape, with plenty of windy and dry days ahead of questionable rain later next week.

There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa: 1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time 2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate

On flights from Paris

Why Tropical Storm Melissa is worth paying attention to - yes, even here in NYC: www.patreon.com/posts/why-tr...

Melissa forecast by @pppapin.bsky.social at NHC to be a cat 4 by Monday. “Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period.”

The last 3 runs of the HAFSB model have been forecasting extreme rates of intensification for Tropical Storm Melissa beginning Sat. With Melissa traversing waters with large ocean heat content and shear lessening, this extreme intensification is within the realm of possibility.

Fire activity is picking up today. Tomorrow may be worse in some of the Helene-impacted areas. Fingers crossed for that rain next week.

"...Trump administration has promised to invest billions in AI initiatives. In response to an inquiry about why this program was cut, the Office of Management and Budget said in a statement that the program, quote, "wasted taxpayer funds to place climate change hysteria in AI models," WHAT?

Love seeing a confidence indicator on WPC’s rainfall forecast for Melissa. The track uncertainty has huge implications for the degree of flooding across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos.

Imagine some center reformations will occur the next few days, but the Air Force is finding Melissa’s low level circulation well removed from what is occurring aloft. Hard to buy the eastern solutions at this point.

'Another unoccupied house collapsed into the ocean along North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday night. It's the 11th house to collapse since mid-September. In total, 22 homes have collapsed into the ocean in the area since 2020.' via AccuWeather [X] #ClimateCrisis #SeaLevel

Easing into fall fire season over the Southeast this week.

The ocean heat content is exceptionally high for this time of year across much of the Caribbean, so even a stalled storm will not be able to upwell cooler water from below. The Caribbean is famously an endless fuel source for hurricanes, and these huge anomalies only boost that further. #Melissa

On flights from Paris

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa (formerly AL98), located over the Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980637739553866070

The NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa at 1100 ET this morning.

The White House isn’t subject to the National Historic Preservation Act. Section 107: www.ntc.blm.gov/krc/system/f...

Good case for use of Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories this evening, even if the 5-day forecast is low confidence.

Invest #98L is steadily getting better organized over the SE Caribbean today. Fast low-level trade winds in the Caribbean "Graveyard" are the biggest impediment to development in the near-term. Once #98L gets to ~75W where the trade winds are slower, much more rapid development is likely

The main event for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, as far as life-threatening impacts go, could well be unfolding in the Caribbean this week, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...

Pedro Pascal was spotted at the LA No Kings protest with the best sign there.

Some strong/gusty winds are expected across the Plains today. In parts of the central and southern Plains, an overlap of gusty winds and dry conditions may produce elevated fire concerns. Those elevated fire weather conditions will shift into north and central Texas by Tuesday afternoon. weather.gov

Nicotine patches help relieve symptoms in some people with #LongCOVID. Can the science behind it lead to future therapies? bit.ly/42NBWXr

This Purdue grad never had IU solidarity on his bingo card. 🤝🏻

Not much more clarity today, with two main camps. Faster organization would result in a northeast track and catastrophic flooding for Haiti, D.R. and Puerto Rico. The slower option would lead to #98L becoming a more intense hurricane farther west.

While it's too far out to narrow down where 98L is likely to slow down or stall in the Caribbean, should it occur near land, major flooding would be a concern to monitor. Steering currents look to be quite weak in the Caribbean in the day 5-10 time frame & possibly beyond.

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sat, 18 Oct 2025 23:42:19 UTC Additional Details Here.

Sunset on Invest #98L in the tropical Atlantic reveals continued westerly shear but increased signs of organization as it moves swiftly to the west.

Surprised to see NOAA hiring announcements today. 12 GS-15 MIC positions dropped at the NWS. www.usajobs.gov/search/resul...

Can’t drink a beer outside right now without being swarmed by yellow jackets, apparently made worse by Atlanta’s severe drought.

Hard to believe we're at the halfway point of "meteorological fall". Here are the temp & precip season-to-date rankings from SERCC. One of warmest falls to date in N. Plains, Northwest, Texas. One of driest falls in Great Lakes, Southeast.

DeepMind made a decisive shift towards development and impacts to Haiti and DR next week, while the Euro ensembles were farther west, and the US ensembles are all over the place. A lot to sort out still, with the key being how fast it develops.

Super nervous about this for the islands.

Hundreds of homeowners in western NC can’t move on with their lives because FEMA has not approved a single application of its homeowner buyout program since Hurricane Helene hit last year. That’s simply unacceptable.