Two winter storms will cause dangerous travel conditions across the northern tier of the country into the weekend. Here are the latest Key Messages for these storms.

Following the ongoing winter storm across the Upper Midwest, another storm system is forecast to impact parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with wintry weather this weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast and check weather.gov for more information. ❄️

My shot of tonight's aurora from Manchester, MD.

Happy Halloween to all the witches, ghosts, ghouls, and K-Pop Demon Hunters slaying demons on their way to getting candy tonight!

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica. rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/... #hurricanemelissa

896mb. Outrageous. #Melissa

Watching this game: "3 turnovers inside KC territory is maddening and it is same old, same old" What the score says: "7-7 at halftime in KC? Have to take that."

Seeing the eye steadily warm/dry out from where it was 4 hours ago (1430Z) to where it is now (1830Z) is another clear sign of #Melissa strengthening. Each HH pass through the eye is showing a warming/drier mid-level layer. And a lower pressure reading each time, of course.

While the track is coming into much better agreement, there remains a good deal of spread regarding when #Melissa makes its NE turn. @burgwx.bsky.social's page shows some members are lagging SW of Jamaica while some are more progressive.

06Z HAFS-B pressure forecast was closer to what HHs were observing earlier today. It shows another period of RI starting sometime tonight and into Monday morning. Given #Melissa has another 48 hrs over the Caribbean, it unfortunately still has time to strengthen prior to landfall.

Comparison between this morning & evening NOAA tail Doppler radar data shows Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifying. Will be a major hurricane soon and a generational storm for Jamaica.

Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data from the current recon mission into Melissa shows that the vortex is vertically stacked up to 15 km w/ the upshear/NW quad being the strongest. This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa. Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️

Latest Vortex message for #Melissa now states the eyewall is closed. Full steam ahead on RI.

Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18 ...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAM... Additional Details Here.

Quick shout out to @pppapin.bsky.social & his colleagues at NHC who have been outstanding in forecasting #Melissa & coordinating with our (WPC's) International Desk. Phillipe's latest 5PM EDT discussion is excellent.

There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa: 1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time 2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate

Overnight guidance has continued to abandon Melissa turning NE into Hispaniola, and is increasingly concentrated on a west track south of Jamaica - a scenario which could easily support a category 5 hurricane in an exceptionally favorable environment for intensification.

Can't say enough about what Ohtani did tonight. We have seen games where a pitcher dominated or a hitter be the bulk of the offense in 1 game, but he did BOTH. If you look up the phrase "put the team in his back", this performance will be the quintessential definition of that

Not starting Dart week 1 appears to be malpractice in hindsight.

WPC has started Key Messages for the coastal storm that is set to bring a myriad of impacts to the East Coast this weekend. These will be updated under WPC's Top Stories section on WPC's homepage each day through the upcoming weekend.

Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2

Heavy rain is coming to the Southwest over the next 7 days thanks to Priscilla late week & the trailing East Pacific disturbance this weekend. Flooding is going to be a problem the second half of the week in heavily impacted areas, along complex terrain, & over burn scars.

My initial reaction: "oh man, if only this were January!" Thinks more about how recent years have gone: "it would find a way to be 33 and rain, wouldn't it."

*whispers* Drake Maye did a lot of Josh Allen shit tonight

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/

It is opening night! Lucky me, I kick off the opening of the winter desk tonight.

Good question! WPC is backup to the NHC in the event NHC goes down (hurricane related or even in the event a significant technical malfunction occurs). They also pass storms off to us when storms advance inland. Each Sept, an NHC forecaster visits & trains those interested in how to issue advisories

One week from today-- the WPC Winter Weather desk returns.

And Kliff's 4th down play call is not to design a play that targets his $30 million receiver, the stud WR from SF, or their solid receiving TE, but a slant to a rookie. The coaching and play calling has been awful. On to week 3.

Green Bay outcoaching and scheming washington too. If not for a couple misses and penalties, Green Bay should be up 3 scores at minimum.

Can not believe this is a 1 score game.

Can't believe this game is a 2 score game.

I've come to the conclusion this team is not as good as Green Bay, the starters playing 2 games in 5 days after not playing all preseason has them tired, & the 2nd game being on the road really amplified their issues. They are not THIS bad. But it is clear they need this mini-bye.

There is lightning inside of 5 miles. This is a no-brainer delay for little league sports, middle school and high school, college, and pro sports.

Dallas looks like they could use an elite pass rusher.

Today marks 6 years since starting at WPC and joining the NWS. Outside of proposing to my wife, it was the best thing to happen to me. Here's to many more years with the NWS.

A large portion of the Atlantic coastline will see the risk for high surf and rip currents this week due to #Erin. 🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥 Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...

#Erin down to 925mb now with latest center pass. Winds (so far) are still Category 4 territory, but with pressure like this winds will probably come up

There are some detailed meteorological analyses to explain what #Erin did in just the last 12 hours alone, but I'll summarize it by saying this: #Erin snapped.

Recon confirms the drop to 935mb. Look at that eye subsidence!

The news is true, the @nws.noaa.gov has been authorized to hire additional #meteorologists, #hydrologists, and #electronics #technicians beyond the 126 previously announced. To receive notifications, set up job alerts on www.usajobs.gov. Next round of #hiring is on the way. #Meteorology #Hydrology

72/61 here near Wallops Island on August 3rd should be a year-round thing.

Weather in DC/Baltimore this weekend

Between 4:28 PMand 4:58 PM (30 minutes), the Sykesville, MD newly minted mesonet station recorded 2" in 30 minutes. mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid...

Yep, don't like that at all.

New MPD for the Mid-Atlantic is out www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Curious to see how well this line of storms along and north of I-70 maintains itself as storms approach from Frederick County.

Rough go traffic-wise in NYC at the moment.