The hurricanes all just want some rum swizzle is all.

Ten years ago today, the cargo ship SS El Faro sank after sailing into the center of Hurricane Joaquin, with the loss of all 33 souls on board. The NTSB blamed the captain’s recklessness & disregard of his crew’s concerns, and the ship’s parent company’s outdated, inadequate equipment & practices.

⚒️ 🧪 A M6.9 earthquake struck Cebu island in the Philippines today, causing at least 20 deaths. The rupture seems to have occurred on an unmapped fault, started below the ocean and continuing to the southwest, passing near populated areas of Cebu. Read more:

Newsletter: This is The Case Against Generative AI, a comprehensive analysis of a financial collapse built on myths I’ll dispel, the markets’ unhealthy obsession with NVIDIA's growth, and the fact that there is not enough money in the world to fund OpenAI. www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-aga...

Rohingya speakers urge the UN not to forget the plight of minorities in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and refugee camps.

Fujiwhara interactions always sound more interesting than what inevitably ends up happening which is just the two hurricanes destroying each other. ...which is still kind of cool.

Had a really nice guest lecture today by Dr. Hung-Chi Kuo, one of the preeminent typhoon experts in Taiwan. He says that the current rise of data-driven (AI) forecast models feels as much as a game-changing moment to him as numerical weather prediction had been decades ago.

Fun fact: Secondary eyewalls are one cause for trochoidal eye motions as we're seeing in Humberto now.

Friend: “You look tired” My brain: short circuits

BREAKING: At least 29 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza since dawn, medical sources in the besieged enclave's hospitals told Al Jazeera. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.io/i8122u

Donkeys at my local animal sanctuary having a party to celebrate one of them living there for 20 years.

I know I'm screaming into a void, but it takes more than just warm water to make a strong hurricane. How moist is the troposphere? How are winds changing with height? Is upper-level air relatively cold? How big is the storm itself? Is it successful when it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle?

Mom says it’s Humberto’s turn to be the I storm.

Would not be surprised to get a special advisory on this.

This setup is strangely reminiscent of Hurricane Joaquin, and on the tenth anniversary of Joaquin (and SC floods), too.

Here is a different version computed using the water vapor bands, hopefully this enhancement won't hurt your eyes as much.

Humberto's eye elongating and doing a twirl makes me think there is some double eyewall weirdness happening. Wish the mesoscale sector was trained on this.

NHC is explicitly forecasting Humberto to become a Category 5 hurricane in the next 18-24 hours. The storm is really small -- HU force winds only extend out to est. 20 nmi in the northern quadrants -- so intensity is generally more unpredictable. They also note ERC is somewhat likely.

I shared the quoted post about a year ago ahead of Helene's landfall. This is how it played out as seen in enhanced IR imagery. The cutoff low in the video starts over Missouri & descends (as the large, circular patch of cooler colors) toward the MS-OH river confluence as Helene enters the Gulf.

Almost half of North Carolina has seen their worst ever tropical event within the past decade, including storms such as Florence and Helene. Does this match your local perception? What do you remember about these storms? Read more in our Helene lookback: climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2025/09...

Great news! Confirmed with the NWS that offices across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will do extra balloon launches in advance of 94L. Props to these folks for their invaluable public service.

On this day 20 years ago, Cat 3 Hurricane Rita came ashore near the TX/LA border. Like Katrina, an ERC-like process caused Rita to weaken but grow in size, driving a surge up to 15' that devastated coastal SW Louisiana. Rita's 937mb pressure at landfall is the 4th lowest for any 100kt Atlantic TC.

OMG what do you mean being in a luxury 5-star hotel is no protection against a Super Typhoon⁉️ #ExtremeWeather #Ragasa #HongKong #Macau #Guangdong

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 Temperatures won't be a problem for "George" on Wednesday, but he might have to dodge some showers in the North Bay by the afternoon. He's all smiles either way — if you want this smile in your life, details here: www.lilyslegacy.org/available.html

“It’s about more than water,” one resident said. “We’re still Hurricane Betsy survivors. Still Katrina survivors. But who’s going to survive the next storm?”

Coming up tonight at 19:19 BST/20:19 CEST: the September #Equinox! This image from Meteosat-12, taken this morning, shows Earth near the equinox - when the terminator appears as a straight line dividing the planet into equal halves of light and dark. @wmo-global.bsky.social @eumetsat.int

Typhoon #Ragasa is weakening on approach to southern China as expected, though the storm will remain very large. The eye has turned into an ellipse rotating quickly counter-clockwise.

Where has the summer gone? 🫥

Wait this thing cooked

Photographs of Super Typhoon #Ragasa shared by JAXA astronaut YUI Kamiya aboard the ISS. Original post: xcancel.com/Astro_Kimiya... #NandoPH #台風18号

The 2025 WPAC season finally has TCs >100 kt: Super #Typhoon #Ragasa (145 kt) 🌀 & Typhoon #Neoguri (125 kt) 🌀forming this past week. Contrasting genesis pathways. Ragasa was a classic genesis case in the monsoon trough, but Neoguri formed from an upper-level low (tropical-transition). Deep-dive ⤵️

An extraordinary satellite view of Super Typhoon Ragasa. The Category 5 storm continues to bring significant impacts to the Philippines.

Typhoon #Ragasa beginning to make landfall on Babuyan. Praying for the safety of everyone there.

Ah yes nothing bad has happened the last time Miami was ranked #2.

2.5-minute rapid scan #Himawari9 Visible images provided a phenomenal view of low-altitude mesovortices within the eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon #Ragasa, as the storm center approached islands within the Luzon Strait (between Taiwan and the Philippines).

On September 21, 2005, Hurricane Rita reached its peak Category 5 intensity w/ 180mph winds and 895mb pressure (175/897 operationally). At the time, Rita had the 3rd lowest pressure observed in any Atlantic hurricane & was the strongest storm recorded in the Gulf of Mexico until tied by Milton '24.

TS Gabrielle’s structure has changed from having persistent bursts of intense thunderstorms on its E (downshear) side, which is a signature of arrested development, to establishing more deep convection on its NW side. Still seems to be affected by dry air that has plagued the storm.

The standing feature in Ragasa has a more "classic" WPAC appearance and NW orientation vs the one I pointed out in Erin that formed SW of the eye. These are some high resolution images of past WPAC cases, including an ISS photo. Not sure if the TC community is close to deciphering this one yet.

The sun setting on Cat 5-equivalent Typhoon Ragasa revealed another instance of a quasi-stationary, straight-line crease in the northern eyewall cloud top.

West Pacific looking very spinny today.

Someone was trying to take a portrait of their two fave Chickens, and this happened.

My friend and former colleague at UWM, Sergey Kravtsov, is looking to hire *two* postdoctoral fellows, one in climate dynamics and the other in data-driven modeling for global precipitation. Please see the advertisements below for more details and share with your networks!

Boycott + abolish marine parks

This storm was the inspiration for the Miami Hurricanes’ name. #GoCanes

20 years ago today, Tropical Storm Rita formed just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and putting residents on edge in the aftermath of Katrina. So began the journey of another infamous hurricane as the relentless 2005 season carried on.

Hokudai lab fam!! 🐦‍⬛🪷🍃🌸🛰️🌀

#wxhistory #OTD in 2005: Tropical Storm Philippe forms east of the Lesser Antilles. Philippe became a Cat 1 hurricane just over a day later as it moved north, but further deepening was hampered by persistent shear due to outflow from nearby Rita and, later, an upper low. Light rain fell in Bermuda.