Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week. The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.

Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash. Hoping for the best for Jamaica.

#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.

#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity. Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda. Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:

Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday. New forecast discussion out later this morning.

#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida. We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands. My latest on this potentially intense storm:

With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms. The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.

Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane. However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat. My latest on #Melissa:

If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.

Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!

Is hurricane season CANCELLED!? In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.

Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology. All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend. Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:

TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week. Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...

One year after Helene/Milton Hurricane Hell Fortnight '24, milder double trouble is here as #Invest93L & #Invest94L may track close enough to interact this week. Odds tilt away from major U.S. impacts, but worth watching from #Florida to the Carolinas. The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:

For the 1st time in 84 years, correction, 3 weeks, there is a storm in the Atlantic: Gabrielle, a strung-out mess that poses no risk other than to Bermuda. With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?

If you follow the Tropical Atlantic, you might be confused like our friend Vincent Vega here by the lack of any named storms since August 28th, a timeframe that is the climatological peak of #hurricane season. So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)

If like Travolta here, you're confused by the quiet peak week of hurricane season, we’ve got you covered. Today’s column breaks down the reasons for this lull and rolls out fresh predictions from our model of late-season U.S. landfall risks. Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.

[Annual post] Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin' Subsidence imposin' And we Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE Shear cuts waves open

With Invest 91L succumbing to dry air and subsidence and no longer a threat to develop, here's a look at this morning's NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:

It's been a quiet, hopeful first half of #hurricane season, but there are possible signs of trouble brewing for the second half. This week’s column discusses a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic likely to become the next tropical storm, as well as updated U.S. seasonal landfall probabilities.

It's always a happy Labor Day weekend without a hurricane. Even high rain chances for Florida, beats the historical alternative. An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September. Cherish the reprieve, because climatology tells us it won’t last forever.

Atlantic Tropical development is unlikely in the last week of August. That's a little unusual: over the last 75 years, at least one tropical storm has formed ~60% of the time. At least one hurricane developed in ~40% of seasons. Nice easy week. Cherish it while it lasts.

The scope of 2-2.5' surge today with #Erin is very impressive, spanning all the way from North Carolina to New Jersey despite a track 300+ miles offshore. This evening's high tide will be the highest water for the mid-Atlantic, and moderate flood stage is possible in some locations. Be safe!

Reels and ‘Toks to the contrary, Hurricane Erin did not snap the U.S. East Coast’s 21-year streak without a Cat 3+ landfall. And good thing, because it's a monster. Latest on Erin’s wave, surge, rip current, and wind impacts, plus why it's the last threat for a while in this week’s tropical column.

With Category 4 #HurricaneErin ripping ~20 ACE units so far (and 15-20 ACE to go), the 2025 #HurricaneSeason has rapidly vaulted out of the climatological basement— moving up from <30th percentile to date last week to nearly 80th percentile today. More percentile gains from #Erin to come.

Historically, storms forming east of the Lesser Antilles have a ~20% chance to make landfall in the U.S. TS Erin is not likely to beat those odds, despite what you may have seen from drama mongers with names like Gulf Coast Hurricane/Monster Jam ALERT HQ this week. Here's the scientific real deal:

Tropical Storm Erin has developed, and the NHC is projecting it to reach hurricane strength by late Wednesday and become the first major hurricane of the year on Saturday. Indications are that Erin will be a strong hurricane that passes north of the Lesser Antilles and east of the continental U.S.

Thankfully, August 2025 will begin with minimal tropical activity in the first third of the month. That frees me up this week for another entry in my guided tour of hurricane season, this time looking at August: when the heat index and prospect of serious tropical threats are gonna make you sweat.

Hurricane Season 2025 is off to a slow start, but there’s a lot of season left to go— nearly 95% in ACE terms. In today's updated Seasonal Outlook (part 1), WeatherTiger’s real-time algorithm is making sense of conflicting data, projecting a most likely outcome of around 135 ACE units. More here:

Irritant-level tropical threats roll on, with today’s focus on a disturbance in the northern Gulf, which may cause flooding in Louisiana/Mississippi. Watching that disturbance and upper-level winds potentially getting less unfavorable for Atlantic tropical activity in this week's hurricane column:

The low- and mid-level centers of a disturbance (#Invest93L) about to cross Florida are misaligned due to shear, but development is still possible in the Gulf. Serious flood concerns later this week in Louisiana/Mississippi. Daily tropical bulletin here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/alignment-...

Close your eyes and picture what a hurricane looks like on the ground. Whatever you’re visualizing, it probably isn’t inland flooding. It probably should be. This week’s tropical column recaps a heartbreaking week of tropical cyclone-related floods and looks at why weeks like this keep happening.

A messy tropical disturbance means #Florida and the coastal SE U.S. are in for a rainy windup to the ID4 weekend, but any tropical development should be limited and is no cause for alarm. Tuesday tropical goings-on plus looking at July climo, microwave data loss, and a seasonal outlook update here:

Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast will be wet this week due to a stationary front/upper disturbance combo that has a slight chance of tropically organizing in 4-8 days in the NE Gulf or near-shore Atlantic. I’ll be monitoring the potential for excessive rainfall impacts to Florida. More here:

The NHC is starting advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the extreme southern Gulf at 5 pm. Like Andrea, TD 2 will also be very weak and short-lived, with no impact on U.S. weather as it moves west into Mexico tomorrow. If it reaches tropical storm intensity, #Barry is the next name on the list.

So, so bad. The most impactful loss of a forecast tool so far. Losing SSMIS, we won't have a good way of knowing if a hurricane's structure is changing to indicate rapid intensification overnight. It'll also degrade forecast skill for all weather because SSMIS data is a key input to computer models.

Man it’s a hot one, like 7 inches from the mid-day sun. Fortunately, just like the ocean under the moon, the first month of hurricane season has been so smooth that you could easily forget about it. This week's column looks at why hurricanes form with an assist from Carlos Santana and Phil Collins.

Newly developed #TropicalStormAndrea is the farthest northeast named storm formation point on record for June since 1900. However, the development point will probably be adjusted southwest post-season. #Andrea will be *very* short-lived and is no threat to any landmass.

Is there a seasonal trade-off between Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane activity? Since 1971, there is a negative correlation between annual ACE in the two basins— a busier EPac tends to mean a quieter Atlantic season, and vice versa. Rank correlation is -0.43 (p=0.001).

There is no correlation between North Atlantic Basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) occurring before a date and ACE after a date until early August. [taps sign] June and July Atlantic tropical activity does not predict peak season activity, even a little.

From Cat 4 Hurricane Erick’s outflow to La Nina/El Nino, the Pacific Ocean affects Atlantic hurricane season in ways large and small. But what ARE El Nino and La Nina, anyway? Everything You Always Wanted To Know About the El Nino-Southern Oscillation But Were Afraid To Ask in this week's column.

With all the major May/June hurricane seasonal outlooks now released, leading groups are tightly clustered around a most likely outcome of 135-155 ACE this year. The standard deviation of the forecasts is unusually low: by far smallest in a decade and less than half of average.

If you've ever wanted to Ask Me Anything: good news! I'm participating in a Reddit AMA starting at noon today about the 2025 hurricane season, and because Reddit is Reddit, probably also about whether hot dogs are sandwiches and whether 100 toddlers could defeat 100 ducks in a fight. Check it out!

I was interviewed last week by NPR’s Living on Earth newsmagazine about my expectations for the 2025 hurricane season and my thoughts on ongoing political attacks on our ability to forecast, prepare for, and recover from hurricanes. The discussion wound up going pretty deep, so check it out here.

"To make a broader point, anybody that presents GFS fantasy storms as a realistic possibility is not a reputable source of weather information. Hurricane season has gotten too commercial, and there are many bad actors trying to profit from scaring people— if something is free, the product is you."

Day 2 of hurricane season, and an area of interest is on the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook map. Disorganized showers will bring 1-4” rains to the #Florida peninsula through Friday with a slim chance of tropical development late week near the Carolinas. More info in my first daily bulletin of 2025:

Happy Hurricane Season Eve! Be sure to set out distilled water and 96 Kirkland Signature AAA batteries in a windowless, interior room for the Cyclone Imp tonight, or else he'll punish Florida with another hyperactive season. Daily tropical bulletins for subscribers start Monday.

WeatherTiger’s May outlook for the 2025 hurricane season is out now. The best I can offer the storm weary is an outlook less nightmarish than 2024, though likely still plenty busy. Deep dive on our forecast keys plus updated U.S. and Florida hurricane landfall probabilities for 2025 at the link.

Had a great time at the National Tropical Weather Conference! I shared WeatherTiger's advances in seasonal landfall risk prediction, heard informative presentations, helped workshop next-generation NHC products, and most importantly, finally met the man, the myth, the legend Jim Cantore! #NTWC25