The first week of November was the warmest on record in #Albuquerque by a big margin. The average temperature from Nov 1-7 was 59.0°F, cruising well above the previous record of 57.8°F set in 2020. Records go back to 1892. I also plotted the trend line, and *shocker*, it's been warming!

An *unprecedented* warm streak this late in the year in #Albuquerque! The past FIVE days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), 75° (Wed), and 76°F (Thu). For context, the average high on these days is 62-63°F. [1/2]

Climate change "doesn’t automatically mean all hurricanes will become powerful,” @bmcnoldy.bsky.social said. But it makes it more likely that an average storm will encounter factors that help it intensify. How climate change made Hurricane Melissa stronger:

The incredible late-season heat in #Albuquerque continues! The past FOUR days in Albuquerque had high temperatures of 75°F+. They were 75° (Sun), 79° (Mon), 77° (Tue), and 75°F (Wed). [1/3]

Here is this year's closest full moon setting above our house... taken just one hour before it's technically 100% full (which is at 6:19am MST), but still above the horizon. This was taken at 5:19am. It'll have to do for a quick phone photo. #supermoon #newmexico

My attempt at photos (from my phone) of this year's largest, closest, and brightest full moon. #supermoon

A few Fall shots of the Rio Grande and Sandias from my neighborhood in Bernalillo...

Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.

This "weathergami" plot for #Albuquerque is interesting. The plot shows the historical frequency of daily high and low temperature combinations. What's curious is the peak with ~90°F highs and ~63°F lows... that is the most common type of day here apparently.

The average water level measured at Virginia Key (near #Miami) set a new monthly record high in October, which is also the new *all-time* record high month. I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago. 🤯🌊🧪

Here's a more zoomed-out version... it certainly was a strange track! #Melissa

Standard Time begins tonight... huzzah!! ☀️🥰☀️

Quick run of my parametric wind swath model on a small portion of Melissa's track. All storm parameters (track, intensity, size) come from the working "best-track", and I simply reduce wind speeds over land by a uniform 30%. Not perfect, but it's something.

With one month to go in the hurricane season, here's a track map showing the activity so far: 13 named storms, including an extraordinary *3* Category 5 hurricanes.

Slow-moving Hurricane #Melissa managed to cool the extremely-anomalously-warm central Caribbean Sea down to right around average for the date. Instead of a "cold wake", would that be an "average wake"? 😉 [1/2]

The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea is VERY warm for this time of year. This could become relevant because the western Caribbean is climatologically a key spot to watch for development in November (November Caribbean hurricanes: bit.ly/4oB9Kjz).

With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime. [1/3]

NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.

A drink for the eve of Oíche Shamhna: a blueberry Cosmopolitan.

#Melissa is approaching #Bermuda this evening... their radar is unfortunately not working, but they are providing a proxy (NOAA's hydroestimator). So, you can keep an eye on Melissa's eye (or what's left of it) as it cruises by tonight. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Anyone remember what #Melissa looked like 17 days ago?? A little seedling leaving Africa on October 13: bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/lore...

The ratio of major hurricanes to named storms is an interesting one... a kind of "quality-over-quantity" index. Here is what that percentage looks like over the past fifty years, and note the average is 21%. More at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...

Looking at the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that is now up to 113% of average for the date, and is already higher than what a full average season has. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/afte...

Surface analysis map from 13 years ago today as former Hurricane Sandy moved inland. I thickened the "outermost closed isobar" to highlight the size of that enormous low pressure system.

"The NHC began using the #DeepMind model at the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in June. For the 13 named storms that have formed so far, the DeepMind model has generally performed well in predicting both their tracks and intensities." with @franklinjamesl.bsky.social [1/2]

Here's an updated look at some preliminary track and intensity verification for #Melissa. NHC and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are still leading the pack for track at all lead times -- and for intensity out to four days. I'm not explaining what all of the models are again here, but please ask!

Slow-moving #Melissa was quite effective at extracting energy from the warm water below it. This 10-day loop of ocean heat content tells the story, and more decreases will show up closer to Jamaica and Cuba in the coming days. [1/2]

Incredible Sentinal-2 satellite imagery of #Melissa at peak intensity before landfall. In the cloud-free areas of the eye you can see the physical effect of the surface wind gradient (2nd image): chaotic whitecapped waves near center transition to extreme sea spray/linear streaking near the eyewall!

Thanks to some vigilant friends out there, I have a nearly-complete 87-hour radar loop of #Melissa 's approach to #Jamaica. The loop abruptly ends when the radar is lost (either loss of communication with it or loss of the actual structure). bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Super busy day with the media today... wrapping it up with NBC News NOW at 8pm Eastern (probably closer to 8:15) with Gadi Schwartz (@gadischwartz.bsky.social)!

The eyewall of Category 4 Hurricane #Melissa is about to exit Jamaica and re-emerge over very warm water (30-31°C) as it heads for eastern Cuba. How much rebuilding will it do? I have a couple long radar loops from Pilon and Guantanamo at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

There we have it... as of today, this hurricane season's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) will end up above average even if all activity ended tonight. For the date, the ACE is at 108% of average. The only season in the past decade that had less ACE by now was 2022.

Thanks to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social & @drkimwood.bsky.social for help with this story. We were all struggling to find sufficient words. “It’s this frustrating combination of, scientifically speaking, we know this is possible, but as humans we are flabbergasted at seeing manifest in this way.” -Kim 🧪

#Melissa has made landfall in #Jamaica, and has preliminarily tied the record for the lowest pressure of any landfalling hurricane in Atlantic history: 892 mb. That was last observed 90 years ago with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. The storm does not look like it even notices Jamaica being there.

What blows my mind about this is that #Melissa doesn't even notice that there's a large mountainous island right next to it. It's like the map outline was drawn on there arbitrarily.

With a central pressure down to 892mb as of 10am EDT, #Melissa is moving up the ranks in the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes -- one of just seven. Wilma 2005: 882mb Gilbert 1988: 888mb Melissa 2025: 892mb Labor Day 1935: 892mb Rita 2005: 895mb Milton 2024: 895mb Allen 1980: 899mb

With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven: Wilma 2005: 882mb Gilbert 1988: 888mb Labor Day 1935: 892mb Rita 2005: 895mb Milton 2024: 895mb Melissa 2025: 896mb Allen 1980: 899mb

It's been 15 days since I first mentioned #Melissa in a blog post (when it was an easterly wave leaving the African coast). But this post from 7 days ago has some hauntingly-familiar tidbits relevant to today: bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/meli...

Looking back at the rapid intensification of #Melissa, two things really stand out to me: 1) there were *5* consecutive six-hourly periods of RI 2) an RI period began when the storm was already at Category 4 intensity The red entries here highlight when an RI period began (30+ kt in 24 hr).

You VERY rarely ever see a satellite presentation like this anywhere in the world. And you certainly don't expect to see it this close to a mountainous island. As of 5am EDT on Tuesday, #Melissa is the 8th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by central pressure (901 mb).

For posterity... Melissa's terrifying perfection: T8.6 initial intensity from the Automated Dvorak Technique. Quite a thing to witness. tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ad...

Curious what #Melissa looked like 2 weeks ago today? I have it at the end of a blog post from October 13: bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/lore...

As I wrote in last Friday's post, the ACE did indeed cross back above the "average" line today, and continue to climb in the coming days, probably boosting the season's total above 100% for the remainder of the season -- even if nothing else forms. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/meli... #Melissa

Some preliminary intensity verification statistics so far for #Melissa for a selection of forecasts (NHC, 5 hurricane models, 2 statistical-dynamical models, 2 consensus, and 1 AI model). The Google DeepMind model is leading at Days 1-3, then Day 4 are HAFS-A and HWRF, then Day 5 is HMON and HAFS-B.

Sunrise on Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/meli...

For only the second time in recorded history, an Atlantic season has produced three Category 5 hurricanes... the previous year was 2005. This puts 2025 in an elite class of hurricane seasons. It also means that nearly 7% of all known Category 5 hurricanes have occurred just in this year. #Melissa

The list of names we're using this year for Atlantic tropical cyclones was first used in 1983 and every six years hence. There's a bit of history of M names being retired from it. Marilyn: 1983, 1989, 1995 (retired) Michelle: 2001 (retired) #Melissa: 2007, 2013, 2019, 2025 (will likely be retired)

One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa. Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️