This is wild! Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.

new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research

I haven’t seen corners this dangerous since I binge watched The Wire

Hans Jørgen Lysglimt Snakker tydelig om rasehygiene der de andre vakler. Blir litt borte i debatten om skattetrykk, men ellers trygg og god. Det merkes at selvtilliten er på plass. Svarer godt for seg på spørsmål om jødeproblemet VGs dom: Terningkast 5

People are lonelier than ever, so here is a robot you can talk to. It won't make you less lonely but it will drive you insane. That will be five thousand dollars.

Did anybody even *try* showing Goebbels the actual crime stats?

Det ble avgitt 42 758 forhåndsstemmer i hele Norge i går, opp fra 27 671 på den første forhåndsstemmedagen i 2021. Dersom vi antar ca. 3 090 000 stemmer totalt ved årets valg vil det si at 1,54 % av stemmene allerede er inne.

Det ble avgitt 9 459 forhåndsstemmer i Oslo i går, mot 6 461 første dag i forhåndsstemmeperioden i 2021.

Det ble avgitt 9 279 tidligstemmer i år. Det er en økning fra 8 469 i 2021. Dersom vi antar at det vil bli avgitt ca. 3 090 000 stemmer ved valget så øker andelen tidligstemmer minimalt fra 0,28 i 2021 til 0,30 i 2025.

Snitt fire første målinger i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni): Ap: 27,6 (-1,1) H: 15,4 (-1,2) Frp: 21,5 (+0,9) Sp: 6,2 (+0,5)
SV: 6,6 (+0,4) KrF: 4,0 (+0,2) V: 4,6 (+0,2) MDG: 3,4 (-0,3) R: 6,1 (-0,1) Mandatfordeling: 85 mot 84 i rødgrønn favør.

Dersom MDG settes til 3,9 %, altså under sperregrensen, på dagens måling i Klassekampen og Nationen går rødgrønn side bare ned fra 91 til 90 mandater. Dersom KrF i tillegg settes til 4,0 % så er det fortsatt rødgrønt flertall med 87 mandater. klassekampen.no/artikkel/202...

Snitt av de to første målingene i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni, altså ikke inkl. Norfakta i juli): Ap: 26,8 (-2,3) H: 15,1 (-1,0) Frp: 22,3 (+1,7)
Sp: 6,5 (+1,2) SV: 6,5 (+1,0) KrF: 3,5 (-0,6) V: 4,5 (-0,5) MDG: 3,7 (-0,1) R: 6,1 (+0,1)

Proper thread after the summer break– but if you were looking for a beach read about political reasoning in today's working class, look no further: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Ferien er over.

Erna Solbergs valgkrets er den eneste som har svingt mer i rødgrønn retning siden 2021. Fire valgkretser har svingt fra rødgrønt til borgerlig flertall. www.pollofpolls.no?cmd=Kommenta... pollofpolls.no - «Sving» i valgkretsene 2021–2025

Frp var større enn Høyre+Venstre+KrF til sammen i både juli og juni.

Adressa har klart å pikselere det lille bildet til venstre, men ikke det store bildet, så nå kan alle som leser avisen ringe på til folk i Kolstadflaten borettslag.

I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts. Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...

have basically been thinking about this tweet all year, and i finally found it again

Fra et snitt på 13,6 % i juni 2009 økte Høyre oppslutningen med 3,6 prosentpoeng fram til valgdagen i september.

Snitt tre målinger så langt i juni (endring fra de samme tre i mai): Ap: 29,7 (+1,4) H: 16,1 (-2,3) Frp: 19,9 (-1,5)
Sp: 5,5 (-0,2) SV: 6,4 (-0,6) KrF: 4,2 (+0,5)
V: 4,2 (+0,3) MDG: 3,3 (+0,7)
R: 6,1 (+0,8) Blokkene: +5,1 rødgrønn favør

Exit polls suggest the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung has won the South Korean presidential election with 51.7% of votes. You may recall him scaling the walls of the National Assembly last year to bypass a military siege and vote against President Yoon's coup attempt.

you know who else came from chicago and was on "a mission from god"

Early exit polls suggest the new pope did particularly well with male voters aged 45-79.

Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries. 1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration

Results from Elections Canada. Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat.

Everyone watching Pierre Poilievre eat absolute shit in Carleton and respecting Canada's bilingual culture.

Men kunst hadde de peiling på.

338Canada🍁federal update | April 27, 2025 🔴LPC 187 🔵CPC 125 ⚜️BQ 23 🟠NDP 7 🟢GPC 1 Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htm Find your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm

Final 🇨🇦 polls: qc125.com/canada/sonda... 🔴LPC +2, Abacus 🔴LPC +2, Liaison 🔴LPC +3, Mainstreet 🔴LPC +3, Nanos 🔴LPC +3, Pollara 🔴LPC +4, Angus Reid 🔴LPC +4, Innovative 🔴LPC +4, Ipsos 🔴LPC +4, Léger 🔴LPC +4, Pallas 🔴LPC +5, MQO 🔴LPC +5, Research Co. 🔴LPC +6, EKOS

If Jesus had focused more on kitchen table issues and less on unpopular outcasts like lepers and prostitutes, he might have won more support from white working-class Judeans.

who did this

At this rate MAGA will only be able to afford to rent the libs.

I wonder what my old friend the Chicken Man is up to these days. Does he still live in Philly? I hope he’s doing okay. Now to relax and listen to this new Bruce Springsteen album

If you're a psychopath who obsesses over markets and ratings, perhaps the ability to drive numbers downwards at a global scale, simply through saying things to journalists, is just as satisfying as the ability push them upwards

The very first paper from our large comparative project - the World Elite Database - is out. Lots of coordination and important discussion on comparing elites allow us to - for the first time really - compare elites across very different national contexts. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

my “we are currently clean on OPSEC” shirt has people asking a lot of questions that are answered by my shirt

He drinks a whiskey drink He drinks a vodka drink He drinks a lager drink He drinks a cider drink He sends a text that remind him of the war plans He sends a text that reminds him of the war crimes #Hegseth

With our Advanced Mixed Methods class, we have played with Multiple correspondence analysis and created this neat little social space of Danish Cabinet members in 2025. Based on their delegated and charismatic capital, we find two dimensions: 1) Total capital and 2) Ideological versus Pragmatic

Dems look like they're bidding on fascism at a silent auction

You: Oh my god the house is on fire! Me (wise, has read books): And you're surprised? Houses have been on fire before [as the flames consume us both] Furthermore,

What we learned yesterday: nothing we didn’t know, if we were paying attention. What we’ll learn this weekend: whether European leaders have been paying attention. (A 🧵) /1

“Can I ask a practical question at this point… are we going to sign the minerals deal”