Once more: The incoherence of the Trump administration should not be confused with incapacity. Trump inherited structures of incomparable global power and is unencumbered by calculations of consequence. This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.

Reupping this article from February — because nothing has changed. Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground. Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine. Europe is still prostrate. www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...

Looking for a way to shore up a foundering autocratic regime? Try this: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...

Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell. pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...

The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long. Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.

Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2

Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social! harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...

In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true power—even in a republic—is inherited.

So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations. Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.

For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built. A quick thread /1

As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...

Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldn’t agree on much. Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead. The ball is now in Europe’s court.

Ok, so this tweet didn’t age well. The piece did, though: “Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”

As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge? cepa.org/article/unmo...

Maybe — just maybe — we could accept that Labour have done the analysis and know what they’re doing?

"The risk is not that Europe overreaches, but that it undershoots. Europe will never have all the resources it needs to assure itself of victory. Failing to go to diplomatic war with the army it has, however, assures it of defeat." My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org

Far be it for me to defend Badenoch, but did anybody consider that maybe she didn't want to meet Vance? What's the upside for her?

A few thoughts on Putin’s very good week, for @paulsonne.bsky.social @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...

As things stand, Ukraine and Europe are on the verge of being confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they feared would emerge back in February. The fact that Europe hasn’t moved to block such a deal in the past six months is a failure of leadership and diplomacy. /1

Ugh. Personality traits are set in very early childhood and don’t change much over time. Asking people to become “more conscientious” in the way the science understands it is like asking me to stop being bald. Any attempt would be entirely artificial. on.ft.com/46Najk8

So, this is making the rounds and really -- desparately -- needs to be clarified. The TL;DR is this: Polls don't measure shifts in opinion so much as shifts in context. news.gallup.com/poll/693203/... (A brief 🧵) /1

And here we go: Not a deal, but a deal to try to force a deal without European involvement. This allows Putin to feign good will, and Trump to back away from a largely empty sanctions threat. Not a good day for Ukraine, I’m afraid. (A quick 🧵) nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/… /1

I stand with Ukrainians, who have shown time and again that they will not abide tyranny, whether it comes from without or within. Zelensky made a mistake. He will pay the price when elections come. But Ukrainians will not thank us now or later if we use this as an excuse to abandon their defense.

The newsletter's back -- with a dive into the tortured psyches of Sergei Karaganov, Konstantin Malofeev and Russia's surprisingly anxious and fractured conservatives. tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...

Thoughts for Marc Bennetts and @thetimes.com on Trump & Putin www.thetimes.com/article/93d3...

Russia declares VPOTUS’s Alma mater an “undesirable organization” meduza.io/news/2025/07...

Deterrence is not back.

Putin: “I’ve already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours. … We have this old rule, that wherever a Russian steps foot — that’s our territory.” Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.

Apparently, the deterrent effect of US investment in Ukraine is limited. www.ft.com/content/c320...

A sobering discussion with @andriypzag.bsky.social and @neilmelvin.bsky.social for @rusi.bsky.social: the key ingredient for peace in Ukraine—Russian commitment—is absent. sites.libsyn.com/341255/can-r...

Anybody remember NFTs?

Many thanks to the @yorkfestofideas.bsky.social for having me up for the day!

At a loose end this Sunday afternoon? Somewhere in shouting distance of York? Join me at the @yorkfestofideas.bsky.social! yorkfestivalofideas.com/2025/calenda...

Tell me you don't know anything about Judaism without telling me you don't know anything about Judaism.

Define your political opponents as extremists. Abuse the power of the state to attack them. Cow institutions into submission. There's something oddly familiar about all of this... www.nytimes.com/2025/05/18/u...

What a marvelous phrase, “Englished by…”

A few thoughts for @ofmandaniel.bsky.social @theworld.org on the method behind Putin's dithering, together with @ksvarnon.bsky.social and Michael Cecire. theworld.org/segments/202...

This is a bizarre graph. If you look at it quickly, you’d think EU exports to Ukraine were falling. On closer inspection, it’s the opposite — because they inverted the Y-axis. Why?

Thoughts on Putin's Istanbul two-step: Don’t invest your pension pot in a peace play just yet. tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...

Thoughts on “Victory Day” for @ofmandaniel.bsky.social & @theworld.org, with Ivan Grek & Victoria Smolkin theworld.org/segments/202...

Oh ffs: no, the graduate visa scheme did not lead to an elevenfold increase in overseas students in the UK from 2020 to 2023. Reclassifying EU students as overseas students as of August 2021 did that. on.ft.com/4crwsVV

Seen in Britain

I’m going to take this as good news. The purpose of Rubio’s presence would have been to browbeat Zelensky into submission and get a bad deal over the line. Harder to do with no big guns there. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/w...

Putin's cease-fire offer is an attempt to achieve at the negotiating table what he cannot achieve on the battleground: the neutering of Ukraine as a sovereign entity. TL;DR: It's not about territorial control. (A 🧵) /1

For all its faults, the US played an important role in helping to end European colonial rule in Africa. Shifting to an overt policy of neo-colonial extraction—while ending development assistance and ceding genuine diplomacy to China and Russia—is … staggering.

This performative humanitarianism is almost certainly designed as a response to Washington’s performative frustration — but it’s not even enough time for Ukrainians to bury the victims of some of the war’s most wanton attacks on civilians. on.ft.com/42pyWko

Washington’s threat to walk away from talks on Russia/Ukraine (typically) raises more questions than it answers. Chief among them: Will Trump still pursue normalization with Russia even absent an end to the war? /1 www.reuters.com/world/us-rea...

In case anyone had doubts abut the relationship Moscow thinks it’s building with Washington, this is from the website of Russia’s SVR (foreign intelligence service):

Well this is depressing. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....