1/ How Statelets Die? I look at this question through the story of Nagorno-Karabakh - once one of the most “successful” de facto entities in the post-Soviet space, and today something no one even wants to remember. Link here: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

Today’s Russian papers on chances of a peace deal: “Don't count on Russia making noticeable concessions.” But: “If proposals are acceptable to Russia, one could talk of a summit in Budapest.” Meanwhile, Russia’s “economic malaise betrayed by rise in wage arrears." #ReadingRussia

Monday morning re-up: thoughts on the current Ukraine negotiations including the whole 'trust' issue, and then how to draw a line between medieval Russians leaving milk and bread for the domovoi household spirit and modern Russian strategic culture...

FIFA awarding a "peace prize" to Trump would be so absolutely on-brand, a truly genius innovation.

Of all the interviews I've done about MOTHERLAND, this one was my favorite. Thank you, @kevinrothrock.me !

“Three people familiar with the operation said Washington was closely involved in all stages of planning. A US official said Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites vulnerabilities.” on.ft.com/4nJJxyt

The United States government currently employs an admiral named Brad Cooper and a DHS official named Chris Pratt

Russia pinned medals on his chest and gave him citizenship, but Timur Praliyev's homeland of Kazakhstan just sentenced him to five years in prison for fighting in Ukraine as a mercenary with Wagner Group. orda.kz/pytalsja-sbe...

NY Post - Paramount Skydance is poised to name Bari Weiss as editor in chief of CBS News in the coming days. nypost.com/2025/10/02/media/p...

Fortunately, I had better things to do over the past weekend, so this completely flew past me. How grotesque. www.bbc.com/news/videos/...

Tug of war profiteers: Russia’s military industry is decimating the country’s civilian workforce As Russia’s defense sector and its civilian economy are locked in a wage race with one another, the state is forced to spend more on staffing the military.

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

on.ft.com/3HKFEtK Russia launches record mass drone attack on Ukraine

Bad Bunny's most recent album, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, explores the colonial relationship between Puerto Rico and the US. Students at Yale are now diving into the lyrics in a new class: “Bad Bunny: Musical Aesthetics and Politics." My latest for @theworld.org theworld.org/stories/2025...

New on Substack: a summary of the issues around Russia's upcoming regional and local votes and why these votes are interesting even under the current circumstances. minczifra.substack.com/p/on-russias...

“The Indian leader bristled. He told Mr. Trump that U.S. involvement had nothing to do with the recent cease-fire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.”

Another morale hit: For the 1st time, Russia reportedly seized villages in Urkaine's Dnipropetrovsk region. The NYT calls it "a minor but symbolic gain that gives the Kremlin another bargaining chip" as Russia tries to exert pressure along that stretch of the front. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/w...

"Yevgeny Prigozhin looked 'doomed' after his failed mutiny and told his mother he expected to die in the days before his private plane crash," reports @pjotrsauer.bsky.social, summarizing Violetta Prigozhin's interview with Fontanka. The authorities still haven't told her what happened to her son.

Russia launched massive strikes in Ukraine last night, including on an American company called Flex. www.npr.org/2025/08/21/g...

FT reports that Putin is demanding a resolution to the Ukraine war's "root causes," including a rollback of NATO's eastward expansion. It sounds like he's sticking to the terms presented to the US and NATO before the Feb 2022 invasion. A refresher:

Documents with sensitive details about the meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin were left behind on a public hotel printer.

A lot of the Russian Internet news lately has focused on the Kremlin’s efforts to herd WhatsApp and Telegram users to the state-sponsored “MAX” substitute, but don’t sleep on this story from Nizhny Novgorod about experiments with a *total shutdown* of mobile data service. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Insightful conversation here with Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on the National Security Council during Trump's first term. LISTEN: theworld.org/segments/202...

MORE: Ukrainian and European officials reportedly presented a counterproposal to US officials on August 9 as European officials continue to issue statements of support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. for an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar080925

WSJ - European powers and Ukraine have responded to Putin’s cease-fire plan with a counterproposal that they say must serve as a framework so that coming talks between President Trump and the Russian leader can gain traction. www.wsj.com/world/ukrain...

SCOOP: Leaked drafts of the State Dept's annual human rights reports on El Salvador, Israel & Russia show the Trump admin is planning to eliminate or downplay accounts of prisoner abuse, corruption & LGBTQ discrimination www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

In occupied Crimea, Russia is accelerating efforts to suppress the Crimean Tatar language and culture. In the latest #BehindTheLines, Elina Beketova reports on how Crimean Tatars are fighting to preserve their identity.

The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in 35 years, per @wsj.com poll, with 63% expressing an unfavorable view. Even so, Democrats edge Republicans in generic House matchup 46% to 43%. @aaronzitner.bsky.social www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Washington is awash in conspiracy theories these days, a cascade of suspicion and intrigue promoted or denied in the Oval Office, ricocheting around Capitol Hill and cable news and propelled at warp speed across social media. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/u...

US reportedly considering allowing Chevron to resume production in Venezuela- but terms/length unclear. Volumes could be limited if short time and limited benefit to Ven govt. Logic of avoiding more Chinese influence makes sense, but US admin Ven policy still conflicted

More protests are expected tonight outside Zelenskyy's presidential office in Kyiv, after he approved a controversial bill weakening two anti-corruption agencies. Europe is unhappy. Civil society is furious. Ukraine's political crisis is growing. My Guardian piece www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

‚Heavy losses have reduced the quality of soldiers on both sides. “The men now are not capable of the same feats. Now it’s a war of drones.“‘ www.wsj.com/world/ukrain...

Marines to leave LA - from NPR member @laist.com laist.com/brief/news/p...

Local stations — from New York City to Indigenous communities — will be the most impacted by the rescission and will likely have to lay off staff, reduce programming, and more if they don't find ways to replace government funds. www.niemanlab.org/2025/07/publ...

The Pentagon says 700 U.S. Marines sent to Los Angeles by President Donald Trump during immigration protests more than a month ago will be withdrawn as soon as Tuesday. via @laist.com

Kyiv metro. People hiding from the shelling. Photo by Yan Dobronosov #Ukraine #Kyiv

During Trump's 50-day delay in imposing further sanctions against Moscow, Russia summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts. Ivan Nechepurenko @constantmeheut.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/w...

A headline like this would have seemed unthinkable a month ago

In this week’s @economist.com I review three new books about intelligence—one on Russian illegals, one on Vasili Mitrokhin, the KGB archivist who defected, and another on the post-9/11 history of CIA—and what they teach us about the culture of each agency. www.economist.com/culture/2025...

How layoffs will affect the State Department and American diplomacy www.npr.org/2025/07/17/n...

Gutting the offices America needs most: among the roughly 1,350 workers laid off at the State Department last week were senior analysts in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, commonly known as INR, including people who specialize in Russia and Ukraine. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/u...

Moreover, the Russians have paid attention and realize that Trump deadlines tend to be less than firm so they have already indicated that they don't take this one all that seriously.

New: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had nominated first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko to lead his cabinet and “significantly renew its work”, in the most notable shake-up of his government since Russia’s full-scale invasion. www.ft.com/content/c235...

One of Russia's most popular writers has been sentenced in absentia to fourteen years in prison on charges of justifying terrorism. Boris Akunin, a famous crime novelist who lives in exile in London, is an outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.

Foreign leaders meticulously prepare for phone calls & meetings w/ President Trump, war-gaming possible surprises and entanglements and quietly trading information and best practices with allies. By @ashleyrparker.bsky.social and @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Rutte on changes to US force posture in Europe. “We agreed with the White House that there will be no surprises,” he said. “We’ll do it in a structured way.”' www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

"Russia has so far stuck to a hard line in negotiations, saying that any resolution to the war must address its “root causes,” referring to Moscow’s desire to demilitarize Ukraine and reassert its dominance over its politics." Matthew Luxmoore gets it right re: Putin's "root causes."

"We are going to spend hundreds of millions of euros on anti-tank mines, but also on anti-personnel mines," says Lithuanian Deputy Defence Minister www.reuters.com/business/aer...

'Either way, Ukrainian soldiers say Russia’s expanded drone strike capacity gives it an edge it did not have during previous assaults.' www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/w...

It's been an open secret for months that Zelensky was going to swap out Ukrainian ambassador in DC Oksana Markarova. But he vowed to Trump in their call last week that he'd replace her soon and work with Trump's team to agree on a suitable replacement. www.ft.com/content/d20e...