My friend Tamara Mearakishvili is behind bars in South Ossetia. Local authorities have accused her of espionage, which could keep her in prison for over a decade. Tamara is absolutely innocent, and the charges appear driven by a personal vendetta of the local de facto leadership.

1/ How Statelets Die? I look at this question through the story of Nagorno-Karabakh - once one of the most “successful” de facto entities in the post-Soviet space, and today something no one even wants to remember. Link here: defactostates.ut.ee/how-statelet...

The EU will discuss suspending visa-free travel for Georgian citizens by the end of this year, according to the results of today’s EU Foreign Council meeting. rb.gy/bd7esb

Georgians are still showing they’re able and willing to protest. Even as the regime jails dozens and imposes huge fines just for appearing in the street. #GeorgiaProtests

This week in the newsletter: @nateschenkkan.bsky.social on assassinations, abductions and other forms of transnational repression thehundred.substack.com/p/how-dictat...

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House. Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

1/ In my new commentary for @ceip-politika.bsky.social I look at what has and hasn’t happened in the month since the historic Armenia-Azerbaijan summit at the White House. Key takeaway - much is still unresolved: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras... 🧵

"gli accordi di pace diventano ostaggi dei mutamenti geopolitici e rischiano di degenerare in un preludio a nuovi conflitti, sfollamenti di massa e guerre prolungate." Ora anche in italiano su @balcanicaucaso.org l'importante contributo di @olesyavart.bsky.social

Washington’s signing ceremony holds the promise of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the real work—steady, patient and far from the cameras—is only beginning, writes @olesyavart.bsky.social.

Great thread on the significance of and challenges ahead of of today's Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in D.C. ⬇️

🗣️“The activation of the U.S. is particularly important for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and, more broadly, for the South Caucasus,” says Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst on South Caucasus affairs, aboutWashington’s initiative to improve relations between Baku and Yerevan. #SouthCaucasus #Caucasus

1/ If you’re enjoying your summer, Donald Trump is about to interrupt it - possibly with significant news. He’s expected to host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Oval Office this week. The goal: a handshake after 30+ years of conflict. But much remains uncertain. 🧵 📷 by AFP

Have a listen to this moving story of an Armenian family finding their old home and relatives in Turkey - and building bonds with a community later hit by the 2023 earthquake. Try not to tear up. podcasts.apple.com/md/podcast/d...

Armenia's Pashinyan is in Brussels shortly after the public announcement about the New Partnership Agenda - it is expected to take relations and cooperation with the European Union to a completely new level, hopefully paving the way for the future formalization of closer ties.

Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent military flare-up along its borders, analyzes Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

1/ Trump seems to be aiming for a Nobel Prize with his latest proposals to resolve one of the crucial unresolved issue in Armenia–Azerbaijan talks. At the center: opening transit corridors to boost the Middle Corridor linking Asia with Europe via the South Caucasus. 🧵

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%... This is a very useful survey (in Russian) of where things stand in Armenia, with the always excellent @olesyavart.bsky.social

I was in Kyiv recently when the city came under heavy missile and drone attack. It brought flashbacks from the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the 2008 war in Georgia. Here’s my reflection on what an unfair peace deal in Ukraine could mean for the South Caucasus.

More than three years into Russia’s invasion, Kyiv has adapted to the rhythms of war. Resistance has faded into daily routine - yet the consequences of this conflict still ripple far beyond Ukraine, including into the South Caucasus. @olesyavart.bsky.social

Useful interview (in Russian) with @olesyavart.bsky.social on Pashinyan’s arrests in Armenia and the overall very messy situation: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%...

Looking forward to reading this regularly.

1/ Timely criticism from 10+ Armenian NGOs focused on women’s rights and human rights, aimed at PM Pashinyan — who has been storming Facebook since early morning with posts targeting church clerics and their personal lives. shorturl.at/swpxE

Welcome home, Théo Clerc. His release from Azerbaijan shows what quiet diplomacy and respectful engagement can achieve. I am relieved his detention is over and I’ll continue doing my part to support our citizens abroad.

1/ Armenia reports some progress in integrating Nagorno-Karabakh refugees - but the process is slow and weighed down by long-term challenges. Passport applications have nearly doubled since last September: from 4,400 to 8,300. 🧵

“You can’t force love,” Lavrov warned in Yerevan. But that may be exactly what Moscow is trying to do as it struggles to hold the South Caucasus in its orbit. Full analysis by @olesyavart.bsky.social

Fascinating story of cooperation with the Armenian community in Georgia's Javakheti to support the breeding of Arctic Velvet Scoters en route to Scandinavia - plus some stunning photos of the local landscapes. If you haven’t visited yet, consider going this summer! www.worldbank.org/en/news/feat...

Read the full article by @olesyavart.bsky.social

These days the air in the South Caucasus feels thicker than it has in decades with the slow suffocation of freedoms once taken for granted after the Soviet collapse. I

Great to see my piece on Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks for @ceip-politika.bsky.social picked up by @moscowtimes.bsky.social

Here’s the English version of my article on why the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty must be finalized ASAP before the window of opportunity closes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

bakuresearchinstitute.org/en/speaking-... Why the imprisonment of young Azerbaijani scholar Bahruz Samadov matters for both academic freedom and peace - our op-ed for the Baku Research Institute.

My beloved Civil.Ge asked me to share thoughts on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal and its impact on Georgia, which I gladly did. It covers economic, political aspects & lessons for Georgia’s own conflicts. Take a look: civil.ge/archives/671...

The most important event that never happened: the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty, which was supposed to boost Armenia-Turkey normalization. I break down why it remains unsigned & why this is a huge missed opportunity for the entire region. English version soon. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Baku & Yerevan have declared their negotiations over, marking a diplomatic milestone. With the signing and implementation of a peace deal uncertain, this ambiguous interim phase demands a careful assessment of the risks & challenges ahead. By @olesyavart.bsky.social

Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization talks: Today saw a potentially significant development in the reports that the text of a long-awaited normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been completed, according to an announcement by the Azerbaijani MFA, also confirmed by the Armenian MFA.

If signing is off the table for the moment, can Armenia and Azerbaijan at least initial/parapher the document to prevent any further changes?

Statements by Armenia & Azerbaijan: Yerevan wants to discuss where to sign the peace deal, while Baku insists on constitutional changes first. No shift in Azerbaijan’s stance vs. more Armenian concessions. Key question: Is today’s announcement enough to move the Armenia-Turkey process forward?

The announcement comes amid media speculation of escalation and delays in Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, stalled over 2 years without a Baku-Yerevan peace deal—all as U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine reshape Europe’s security. In short: Moscow won’t be happy. oc-media.org/armenia-and-...

🟢 The Kremlin denies sovereignty and territorial integrity not only to Ukraine but also to Georgia. But unlike Ukraine, the ruling Georgian Dream party follows the Russian playbook and uses the Russian threat to maintain authoritarian power, writes @sonjaschiffers.bsky.social 👇

Read my latest piece on #Georgia, as part of @ceps.eu #IWD commentary 👇

The past weeks in Abkhazia were an anomaly—but could soon be the norm as Moscow tightens its grip. In my latest for the IPG Journal, I examine what this means for Abkhazia’s ties with the few Western officials still engaged and those in Tbilisi watching closely. www.ipg-journal.io/ru/regiony/e...

doit obtenir tous les avantages qu’elle demande. 6// A lire, l'excellent texte de @olesyavart.bsky.social pour @CarnegieEndow : carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

1/ Election drama in Abkhazia is over. Moscow-backed candidate Badra Gunba won with a majority. His rival, Adgur Ardzinba, hasn’t conceded, but few seem to care - official congratulations already came from Putin. 🧵 jam-news.net/amid-scandal...

@globsec.bsky.social is now accepting applications for its Young Leaders program! I was part of it 10 years ago, and many from my cohort have become lifelong friends. If you're interested in security & policy, I highly recommend applying: forum2025.globsec.org/gylf/?utm_ca...

Let’s hope he never discovers the South Caucasus and its conflicts.

Tomorrow is the 2nd round of Abkhazia’s leadership election. When I wrote this for @ceip-politika.bsky.social, I expected tensions - but not this fast. Pressure on local Armenians & Russian threats of prosecution in case of unrest signal more trouble ahead unless political rivals strike a deal.

EU Parliament members visited Armenia this week for a partnership committee meeting with Armenian colleagues. Their joint statement strongly backed Armenia’s position on its conflict with Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. Read it here: www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/2933...

Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer listed in @freedomhouse.bsky.social's annual Global Freedom Status report. Last year, it received the lowest possible score worldwide after Azerbaijan’s military takeover led to the almost full exodus of its ethnic Armenian population.

The European Union continues to grapple with finding effective measures to address the ongoing crisis in Georgia. At the conclusion of today’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting, High Representative Kaja Kallas issued a brief statement on the situation: